Updated 53-man roster (post draft)

[adam]

Here is the updated roster/depth chart. Projected starters in bold, rookies underlined. 

QB - Williams, Keenum, Bagent
RB - Swift, Johnson, Homer, (Wheeler) or (Monangai-PS)
TE - Kmet, Loveland (12p), Smythe, (Carlson)
WR - Moore, Odunze, Burden (11p), Zaccheaus, Duvernay, (Scott) or (Boykin)
OL - Jones, Thuney, Dalman, Jackson, Wright, Trapilo, Bates, Amegadjie, (Kramer) or (Newman- PS)

DT - Billings, Jarrett, Dexter, Turner, Williams, Ford, (Pickens)
Edge - Sweat, Odeyingbo, Booker, Robinson, (Hardy)
LB - Edmunds, Edwards, Obongbemiga, Hyppolite, (Sewell)
CB - Johnson, Stevenson, Gordon, Smith, Blackwell, (Frazier-PS) or (McCloud)
S - Brisker, Byard, Hicks, Owens

LS - Daly
K - Santos
P - Taylor

I put the bubble players in parentheses. 

So the first decision will be to keep 2 or 3 QBs on the 53-man. Then the roster spot competitions come down to:

1. Jones vs Trapilo (to start)
2. Wheeler vs Monangai (53-man)
3. Scott vs Boykin (53-man)
4. Ford vs Pickens (53-man)
5. Robinson vs Hardy (53-man)
6. Hyppolite vs Sewell (53-man)
7. Frazier vs McCloud (53-man)

So out of all the draft picks, it looks like just Trapilo will be competing for a starting spot. 

[dawhizz]

Hard to believe they came out of this draft without any real competition at edge (unless maybe Turner plays there some) or safety, and no RB until the 7th. Have to hope the improvements at DT open up more opportunities from the edge, or that Dennis Allen has some blitz ideas, or it’s going to be tough to put pressure on the opposing QB. Have to also hope Brisker is 100% recovered from the concussion and that Byers keeps playing at a high level because there’s really no back up plan except for the same one we had last year. 

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Here is the updated roster/depth chart. Projected starters in bold, rookies underlined. 

QB - Williams, Keenum, Bagent
RB - Swift, Johnson, Homer, (Wheeler) or (Monangai-PS)
TE - Kmet, Loveland (12p), Smythe, (Carlson)
WR - Moore, Odunze, Burden (11p), Zaccheaus, Duvernay, (Scott) or (Boykin)
OL - Jones, Thuney, Dalman, Jackson, Wright, Trapilo, Bates, Amegadjie, (Kramer) or (Newman- PS)

DT - Billings, Jarrett, Dexter, Turner, Williams, Ford, (Pickens)
Edge - Sweat, Odeyingbo, Booker, Robinson, (Hardy)
LB - Edmunds, Edwards, Obongbemiga, Hyppolite, (Sewell)
CB - Johnson, Stevenson, Gordon, Smith, Blackwell, (Frazier-PS) or (McCloud)
S - Brisker, Byard, Hicks, Owens

LS - Daly
K - Santos
P - Taylor

I put the bubble players in parentheses. 

So the first decision will be to keep 2 or 3 QBs on the 53-man. Then the roster spot competitions come down to:

1. Jones vs Trapilo (to start)
2. Wheeler vs Monangai (53-man)
3. Scott vs Boykin (53-man)
4. Ford vs Pickens (53-man)
5. Robinson vs Hardy (53-man)
6. Hyppolite vs Sewell (53-man)
7. Frazier vs McCloud (53-man)

So out of all the draft picks, it looks like just Trapilo will be competing for a starting spot. 

Trapilo is a RT but they may try him there. People base the draft on weaknesses they think the bears have. I would say maybe they like the roster better than you think .

They let the draft fall to them. Once Skattebo was picked, they traded back. They had a backup plan knowing he would probably not be picked. 

I think the edge I thought they would take, Swinson got picked right before their pick, moved back. I think Turner plays more outside than inside. I also think Dexter may see some snaps outside. 

As rostered are developed and players are cut , we may add a few cheap additions during the training season. 

The roster is never done moving forward. If Newman is a good player it may allow us to cut Bates, 4 mil cap savings. You left out Stromberg but if healthy could get a roster spot.

Our WR and TE has a lot of talent now and I think Johnson wants them for chess pieces to attack defenses. Last year Detroit scored 70tds. If Johnson sniffs even in that area that means Caleb is swinging it and we have a lot of wins.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

There is going to be a lot more competition in camp and this draft reinforced that. 

[BearFan PHX]

Looking more at the roster, learning more about some of the players. had a few thoughts about a couple position groups.

OFFENSIVE LINE

The more I look at the group of players we have, the more i think we are going to try Wright at LT. I dont love the idea. I would have drafted a LT, and let Wright stay where he is. But the Bears didnt do that for whatever reason. i think Trapilo could be a good starter at RT, but I am more concerned with him at LT. If you start Trapilo at RT, I think we can have our long term first round type answer at LT with Wright, at one of the premiere positions in football. Wright has all the right tools for it, and imagine running behind him and Thuney to the left side there.

So while I would have drafted differently to avoid it, I think we could see Wright, Thuney, Dallman, Jackson, Trapilo as the OL. Once you get over the inertia of hating the idea, if you imagine the Bears are doing it anyway, and start to think it through, it looks pretty good. If Wright makes the transition well, that will solve a lot of problems into the future.

I also am more comfortable with Amagadje at RT than LT, so I think thats possible too. Wright goes to LT, and Trapilo and Amagadje compete for RT.

RUNNING BACK

Something tells me we aren't done here. Could Nick Chubb one a one year deal be an answer?

WIDE RECEIVER

This will be my most controversial thought here. I think Burden will replace DJ Moore sooner or later. Maybe not this year, but maybe next year. I think Burden may take some of DJs snaps outside this year too. He's a Jet Sweep guy too, hes a lot like DJ actually. So the Bears may develop him, at the cost of some of DJs production. How will DJ handle that? how does Johnson like DJs lazy tape from last year? probably not very much. DJ better show up ready. Johnson basically called him out when he said in relation to our first 2 picks he "just lit a fire under a few players here" he may have been talking Kmet some, but i think it was mostly at DJ.

I'll put Colston Loveland here too. If the Bears got too soft and traded down too much and missed on players in the draft, they certainly didn't with Loveland. I now think this was either THE pick going in, or it was between him and Banks. Seeing how Johnson reacted to the pick, I am thinking the Bears wanted Colston "no matter what". and I think he is going to do a lot of what Keenan Allen was supposed to do for us - make first downs on option routes by being twitchy out of his break, and Loveland can also use his physique in a west coast way too, making him a twitchy, tall, big target with hands for 3rds downs and Red Zone. No matter who is covering him, he has some mismatch on him. He will be Caleb's safety blanket.

Fun fact: 75% of Lovelands catches in college were for first downs.

Defenses will have a hard time covering us.

THE OFFSEASON

Poles has done a lot of good for this roster this offseason. His free agent plan was perfection, and of course he got coach Johnson and staff too. An A+ for sure.

In the draft, we may have whiffed some, but we made good quality value picks all the way through the 7th round - guys that should be able to contribute to our team. As a result, along with a lot of smaller but decent names in free agency this year, means our team has a lot of depth. This should help with injuries, and we should win a lot of preseason quarters that are 2nds on 2nds. that will be evidence that we are deeper.

I think Poles could have been a little more aggressive in the draft, even if it cost some value, and cost us the chance to draft one of the players we got, to get some of those more obvious names we all knew. But the flip side is a lot of good players who can help us, and that will make us better too. I see 6th and 7th round players who could be contributors if they got playing time.

I think this roster, if LT is figured out, should have playoff expectations.

My total guess, assuming LT isnt a total disaster, and Caleb isnt running for his life:

Caleb Williams 4,050 yards passing

DJ Moore 800 yds receiving
Rome Odunze 1,050 yds receiving
Luther Burden 600 yds receiving
Colston Loveland 750 yds receiving
Cole Kmet 350 yds receiving
HBs 500 yds receiving

[BearFan PHX]

Look at all the turnover! Green means a new player this year.

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I saw a Swifty pod and he said it looks like the Bears will be over the cap once they sign the rookie class.  They will have to cut Ryan Bates and Chris Williams to get them around 3 million under. 

Extend Thuney and they have a little more wiggle room, but it will put the Bears around 10 million under next year. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I saw a Swifty pod and he said it looks like the Bears will be over the cap once they sign the rookie class.  They will have to cut Ryan Bates and Chris Williams to get them around 3 million under. 

Extend Thuney and they have a little more wiggle room, but it will put the Bears around 10 million under next year. 

They can play with the cap besides cutting a few players. As of today OTC shows us at 10.6 mil in cap space. They estimate our rookie pool as 13.3 mil. which will put us underwater. We also have to add operatiing capital thru the yr. Last year is was around 9 mil. So we have around 12 mil to come up with. 

Being under the cap I dont see us signing anymore quality signing until after training cap starts. OTC shows us as having 38.4 mil going into next yr as of now. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I saw a Swifty pod and he said it looks like the Bears will be over the cap once they sign the rookie class.  They will have to cut Ryan Bates and Chris Williams to get them around 3 million under. 

Extend Thuney and they have a little more wiggle room, but it will put the Bears around 10 million under next year. 

I don't think he is correct unless OvertheCap and Spotrac are wrong. The rookie pool is around $6.5M, considering they are replacing players on the 53-man roster that are already counted towards the cap. So if the Bears have around $10.6M in cap right now (Spotrac says $11.4M), they should have at least $4M after all rookies are signed. 

That doesn't mean they won't make other cuts, as Williams and Bates both make a lot of sense, so cutting them would push the cap space over $10M without a Thuney extension. They may do it if they bring on another RB, S, or Edge. 

[Stinger226]

8 minutes ago, adam said:

I don't think he is correct unless OvertheCap and Spotrac are wrong. The rookie pool is around $6.5M, considering they are replacing players on the 53-man roster that are already counted towards the cap. So if the Bears have around $10.6M in cap right now (Spotrac says $11.4M), they should have at least $4M after all rookies are signed. 

That doesn't mean they won't make other cuts, as Williams and Bates both make a lot of sense, so cutting them would push the cap space over $10M without a Thuney extension. They may do it if they bring on another RB, S, or Edge. 

I thought the rookie cost for each spot drafted were already self determined. Pick # 10 is listed as 4.5 mil. I know last year Rome got 4.1 mil as the 9th pick. Kiran A got 1.3 mil as a third round pick.

[adam]

25 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I thought the rookie cost for each spot drafted were already self determined. Pick # 10 is listed as 4.5 mil. I know last year Rome got 4.1 mil as the 9th pick. Kiran A got 1.3 mil as a third round pick.

Yes, so there is a total rookie pool and an effective cap hit, which subtracts the bottom players (in the top 51) that count against the cap as they are replaced by the new player. 

For simple math, just subtract $1M from each's players 2025 cap hit, so only Loveland, Burden, Trapilo, and Turner will be the only ones that count negatively against the cap. All the other players are a wash. Last year if Rome got $4.1 and he bumped a guy making $1M, the cap only dropped by $3.1M to add him, Kiran only 300K. 

[Stinger226]

39 minutes ago, adam said:

Yes, so there is a total rookie pool and an effective cap hit, which subtracts the bottom players (in the top 51) that count against the cap as they are replaced by the new player. 

For simple math, just subtract $1M from each's players 2025 cap hit, so only Loveland, Burden, Trapilo, and Turner will be the only ones that count negatively against the cap. All the other players are a wash. Last year if Rome got $4.1 and he bumped a guy making $1M, the cap only dropped by $3.1M to add him, Kiran only 300K. 

That makes sense, Im not sure when they are responible to set the cap space. They are allowed a 90 player roster so it would have to be later in the year to set the cap amount after they start cutting players. They still have to establish a operating total for the season which she put us under water.