THE BEAST of an off-season

[Stinger226]

We need to look at the overall off-season to see what Poles has accomplished this year.

Got the best coach on the market and spent good money on assistants. 

Added to both lines with quality additions. Added contracts for Gordon and Jackson who were on last years. 

The draft gave us 4 quality players in the first 4 picks. 2 potential all pro types and 2 first year contributors. 

The rest of the draft gave us high risk high upside players.

Dane Brugler has the most complete draft guide on the market. Well respected in football circles.

We ended up with 4 top 100 prospects. Loveland -11, Burden-27, Turner -56, Trapilo -79 

He had mentions of all our draft picks on his draft guide. I thought they were obscure but people were aware of them.

 Hiopolote 35th LB 

Zak Frasier 23rd CB 

Newman 22nd OG 

Monangai 20th RB.

I think this were high ceiling high risk type picks. 

It's going to be 2 years before we can start rating this draft.

Lots of people saying Monangai is a dark horse good RB that fits what the bears are looking for. 

We have a front row seat to a winning season whether fans think it still has problems or not. The off-season is not over yet, now rumors of Nick Chubb. It never stops.

Enjoy the ride.

[CrackerDog]

I agree.  Still can't approve of using our 4th round pick the way we did, though.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, CrackerDog said:

I agree.  Still can't approve of using our 4th round pick the way we did, though.

I didn't like who or when either. We just don't know if they screwed up or not. I do like the 1st 4 picks and Monongai. As contributors early in the year. 

[adam]

The league is a head-to-head league, and normally when one team gets better another team gets worse, at least relatively speaking. 

The Bears had a huge gap to make up in the division as a 5-win team this offseason. Every other team made the playoffs and had no less than 11 wins.  So to close the gap, they needed a massive coaching staff upgrade, check, an impactful free agency, check, and a really solid draft, check. It still means nothing until Week 1, but the groundwork is in place to be in the mix with DET, MIN, and GB this season. 

There is a good chance that the entire NFCN has 10+ wins. I think DET and MIN will come down to earth, GB will be around 9-10 wins, and CHI will be somewhere in the mix. The 4th place team in the NFCN probably misses the playoffs again, and they may be a 10 win team. I am hoping the Bears can get to 11 wins.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

The league is a head-to-head league, and normally when one team gets better another team gets worse, at least relatively speaking. 

The Bears had a huge gap to make up in the division as a 5-win team this offseason. Every other team made the playoffs and had no less than 11 wins.  So to close the gap, they needed a massive coaching staff upgrade, check, an impactful free agency, check, and a really solid draft, check. It still means nothing until Week 1, but the groundwork is in place to be in the mix with DET, MIN, and GB this season. 

There is a good chance that the entire NFCN has 10+ wins. I think DET and MIN will come down to earth, GB will be around 9-10 wins, and CHI will be somewhere in the mix. The 4th place team in the NFCN probably misses the playoffs again, and they may be a 10 win team. I am hoping the Bears can get to 11 wins.

I think youre right in the ballpark. We had 5 wins last year, but it should have been 8 if Flus didnt mess up the end games. Clearly we are a MUCH better roster this year, and the gameplans will be superior as well.

I figure 10 or 11 wins and a playoff appearance. Like always, I wont put a ceiling on what the team could be in December - if they gel, who knows how far they could go, but as it stands right now, I think 10 or 11 wins is about right.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think youre right in the ballpark. We had 5 wins last year, but it should have been 8 if Flus didnt mess up the end games. Clearly we are a MUCH better roster this year, and the gameplans will be superior as well.

I figure 10 or 11 wins and a playoff appearance. Like always, I wont put a ceiling on what the team could be in December - if they gel, who knows how far they could go, but as it stands right now, I think 10 or 11 wins is about right.

Correct we played well enough to reach 9-10 wins. But the calamity of Flus and lame OCs prevented that. 4-2 and should have been 5-2, boom, the team quit on him 

[BearFan PHX]

16 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Correct we played well enough to reach 9-10 wins. But the calamity of Flus and lame OCs prevented that. 4-2 and should have been 5-2, boom, the team quit on him 

yup

[adam]

14 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think youre right in the ballpark. We had 5 wins last year, but it should have been 8 if Flus didnt mess up the end games. Clearly we are a MUCH better roster this year, and the gameplans will be superior as well.

I figure 10 or 11 wins and a playoff appearance. Like always, I wont put a ceiling on what the team could be in December - if they gel, who knows how far they could go, but as it stands right now, I think 10 or 11 wins is about right.

 

13 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Correct we played well enough to reach 9-10 wins. But the calamity of Flus and lame OCs prevented that. 4-2 and should have been 5-2, boom, the team quit on him 

 

and if you got back another year, I think there were at least 3-4 other games Flus'd, so this roster really was a 8 to 9 win, cusp of the playoffs, type of roster. So getting to 10 or 11 wins seems reasonable. 

[adam]

Funny if you swap a few picks around, they ultimately end up near where they were ranked. Swap Turner and Trapilo, move Monangai up to the 4th, move Frazier over Hyppolite and the values are in line with the consensus big boards. 

Loveland - TE2 1st Round Grade
Burden - WR3 1st-2nd Round Grade
Turner - DT6 2nd Round Grade
Trapilo - OT7 3rd Round Grade
Monangai - RB20 4th-5th Grade
Frazier - CB23 5th-6th Grade
Hyppolite - LB35 UDFA
Newman - OG22 UDFA

[Mongo3451]

This has definitely been a beast of an off season.  We are champions for the three peat.

Jokes aside, I love what Poles and company have done.  Getting the staff in place exceeded my expectations.  The five trench players acquired before the draft are all upgraded starters.  The draft fell awkwardly to us, but Poles found several future starters and special teamers.  We became much stronger in the trenches and faster at the skills.  And we are still in solid cap space.  Very solid job. 

We talked about blue chip players in the past.  If Caleb, Rome and Coleston emerge, I believe the team will be at 13 and rising.

 

[adam]

and for PFF grades, only Turner was graded "below average" which is quite impressive considering the snap counts.

Loveland - 85.9
Burden - 77.9
Trapilo - 76.8
Turner - 59.4
Hyppolite - 69.2
Frazier - 85.9
Newman  - 71.9
Monangai  - 77.3

[adam]

Offense

TE 
Everett (246 snaps) > Loveland
Lewis (220 snaps) > Smythe

WR
Allen (850 snaps) > Burden
Carter (137 snaps) > Duvernay

RB
Herbert (27 snaps) > Monangai

OL
Shelton (1122 snaps) > Dalman
Jenkins (738 snaps) > Thuney
Pryor (1006 snaps) > Jackson
Davis (142 snaps)  > Newman
Borom/Curhan (591 snaps)> Trapilo

Defense

DL
Taylor (375 snaps) > Turner
Walker (739 snaps) > Odeyingbo
Cowart (335 snaps) > Jarrett

LB
Sanborn (235 snaps) > Hyppolite

CB
Jones (76 snaps) > Frazier
 

Over 5000 snaps replaced on Offense, and 1700 on defense. The entire secondary is basically coming back, and considering they are in Nickel most of the time, the back-7 are virtually unchanged from last year. Outside of the rookies being unknowns, it looks like upgrades across the board outside of Sanborn to Hyppolite and maybe Allen to Burden is a wash in 2025. Loveland over Everett is massive. Every OL spot is massive. I still feel like Edge could use another guy, especially if they don't believe in Robinson, but that's it. 

[adam]

Demarcus Walker is still a UFA. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Demarcus Walker is still a UFA. 

I think they would have kept him if DA wanted him.

[adam]

Matt Miller had Luther Burden as the favorite pick of the entire draft. Loveland was his 7th. Pretty cool. He had Burden as his top WR and Loveland as his top TE. 

Here were his write-ups:

Burden was my top wide receiver in the class (I'm counting Travis Hunter as a two-way player), and he landed in a great situation with the Bears and new coach Ben Johnson. Burden's yards-after-catch ability is terrific, and Johnson's scheme has been elite at creating space for wide receivers. Burden likely starts as a slot receiver with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze flanking him, but he thrived in that alignment at Missouri.

 

I had Loveland as my No. 1 tight end, and apparently the Bears agreed; they made him the top tight end drafted. His ability in the passing game -- he runs routes like a receiver and has the speed to separate from linebackers and safeties -- makes Loveland an easy comparison to Sam LaPorta, whom Bears coach Ben Johnson had great success with in Detroit. Value, need and scheme fit all match with this pick.

[adam]

It is possible that Moore, Burden, and Loveland will have over 50 combined carries this year. Deebo Samuel had a career high of 59 a few years ago and averages over 40 per season. Moore had 14 last year, I could see him having over 20-25 this year. If they get 50 carries from WR/TE, then adding another RB would not be as big of a need.

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, adam said:

It is possible that Moore, Burden, and Loveland will have over 50 combined carries this year. Deebo Samuel had a career high of 59 a few years ago and averages over 40 per season. Moore had 14 last year, I could see him having over 20-25 this year. If they get 50 carries from WR/TE, then adding another RB would not be as big of a need.

I highly doubt it.  Moore and Burden may get 15 each on average.  We also also have Duvernay that should get a few.  As a reference Sam Laporta has one career rushing attempt, so Loveland is probably out.

[BearFan PHX]

Also, while those kids of runs can replace yardage, they dont make the defense come down into the box in the same way, because those runs are generally to the sides and not up the middle. So you dont replace everything a HB gives you with those yards?

[adam]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I highly doubt it.  Moore and Burden may get 15 each on average.  We also also have Duvernay that should get a few.  As a reference Sam Laporta has one career rushing attempt, so Loveland is probably out.

 

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Also, while those kids of runs can replace yardage, they dont make the defense come down into the box in the same way, because those runs are generally to the sides and not up the middle. So you dont replace everything a HB gives you with those yards?

I am just thinking outside the box. Johnson has had Sewell throwing passes, OL catching passes, and other formation trickery. Yet, he has never had the versatility that he will have in 2025. 

[BearFan PHX]

7 hours ago, adam said:

 

I am just thinking outside the box. Johnson has had Sewell throwing passes, OL catching passes, and other formation trickery. Yet, he has never had the versatility that he will have in 2025. 

totally agree with you. and I do expect more trickery and fun stuff for sure.