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LAR @ CHI, Divisional Round, SUN, JAN 18th Game Thread - CHI +3.5, O/U 51.5
Stinger226 replied to adam's topic in Bearstalk
This is 2026 -
Caleb has broken analytics and stats in general. What he is doing doesn't compute, it is so funny. In the Wild Card round, here is where he ranked of all the QBs who have played so far: 1st in Passing Yards (361) 1st in Big Time Throws (6) 1st in 1st Downs (19) 1st in Sack Avoidance (95%) 2nd PFF Grade (77.3) 2nd EPA (+7.8) yet he had a QB Rating of 71.6 and a QBR of 36.9. Both of those would indicate a subpar game. The main culprit is his Comp%, which was at 50%. He had the 2nd longest TTT, but only took 1 sack. Herbert had the highest TTT and took 6 sacks. It really is bonkers. I think that is what people are having trouble grasping, because if you are just box score watching, he looks fairly average. There are 4 QBs in NFL history to throw for more than 350 Yards with a Comp% 55 or below: Kosar, Cunningham, Jackson, and Williams. Caleb is the only one to throw for 2 TDs, and the Bears were the only team to score more than 30 pts in that game.
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Absolutely bonkers, and Caleb had 283 Passing Yards in the 2nd half as well.
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I understand that it may not play a huge role, but it will be a factor to consider. There are a lot more examples of warm teams struggling in the cold than playing well. In that game you reference, it was playing the SF team that won back to back SB's, with Joe Montana at 32 and Jerry Rice at 26, so I don't know if any factor mattered against that team.
- Today
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https://www.nfl.com/news/ben-johnson-bears-packers-rivalry-wild-card-win-i-dont-like-that-team
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I hope for the best with Ozzy. One thing I learned this past weekend is Ozzy >> Will Campbell.
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Josh Allen is as close as they come, but if you compare Caleb's 2nd year as a pro and Allen's, Caleb is already better. We are comparing Caleb to Allen as 29yr old in his 8th season. Exactly.
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Nothing about the Chargers playoff performance made me think Harbaugh should have been our HC.
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Nacua is not fast. He’s quick but in man coverage Panther DBs were able to stick with him. He will destroy zone coverage and he has great hands for contested catches. Stafford trusts him and will throw the ball his way even when he’s covered.
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Sunday game with the temp in the teens. Things to consider: -ball will be rock hard -Stafford has a sprained index finger. Even mild sprains do not heal in a week. And Stafford doesn't wear gloves. Last years divisional round was in the 30s temp wise. I'm from wyoming and played a football game in -37 degrees and that didn't feel as cold as 0 degrees with humidity. This feels like a running game day.
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Solid HC, but I think the team would be more dependent on the coordinators. I would not be surprised if GB moves on, but at the same time, would not be surprised if they doubled down on LaFleur+Love.
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Temperatures in the teens, winds in the teens. Real feel is projected to be below zero wind chills. The Bears have been playing in crappy weather games for over 6 weeks now. LAR has not, that feels like it favors the Bears. With the home crowd + crappy weather, advantage Bears, and they will need all of them. 6 of the last 7 games for the Bears have been under 42 degrees. The warmest game was 42 degrees in Philly with 18mph winds and gusts in the 20s. The other 5 games were below 37. The Cleveland game is about as close as it will be on Sunday. Stafford has never played in a game below 20 degrees apparently. Teens with winds in the teens are on a whole different level of cold too. He hurt his hand in the CAR game and is almost 38. That cold will affect him. The last cold Rams game I could find was December of 2024 in NY against the Jets. 23 degrees. Stafford was 14-19, 110 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. They relied heavily on Williams running the ball to beat the terrible Jets.
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I honestly can't believe how lost Herbert looked, but then again, in big games, that is what he does. Maye looked his age, which is fine given how young he is, but he basically had one good drive. Kind of easy when your defense allows 3 pts and a screen pass goes for 48 yards. I would take Maye over Herbert. Purdy is the ultimate system QB, which is great in that system. That still makes him better than half the league, because there are guys that can't even do that. Josh Allen is as close as they come, but if you compare Caleb's 2nd year as a pro and Allen's, Caleb is already better. We are comparing Caleb to Allen as 29yr old in his 8th season. One of the best parts of this situation is we have the QB AND the Head Coach. That pairing is the key to long-term success, and I really think we have it. Now there is no concern about a new system every 1-2 years, the revolving door of coordinators, etc. None of that matters, because the core is set with Ben and Caleb.
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Yep, have to wait for the outcome of the PIT/HOU game.
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Caleb is one of one, ever. I can say this because the 4th and 8 pass to the left was the first time I've ever seen a throw like that. (Not even Mahommes). While Caleb is inaccurate and doesn't see the open guy too much, he has that Reggie Miller (unconscious) mode. Thanks Stinger. It drives me nuts. Do I like other QBs better? Yes, but only three. Young QBs, only one. Would I trade him for that guy? He'll no. Caleb is a part of us now! He's like Tin Cup, as in he may give us the greatest thing we've ever seen, but to fall short. In this chapter of my life, I love it.
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LAR @ CHI, Divisional Round, SUN, JAN 18th Game Thread - CHI +3.5, O/U 51.5
Stinger226 replied to adam's topic in Bearstalk
Just heard we are playing Sunday 2 or 530 -
I wouldnt trade Caleb for anyone. The thing is, he still has a way to go too. Where hes heading is gonna be incredible. "Generational" you might say LOL I wasnt one using that word, but i did defend other people using it when it was part of "Generational Prospect" because of his ceiling, now hes taking steps to become that player. I do really think top 5 QB for Caleb next year is a likely goal.
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LAR @ CHI, Divisional Round, SUN, JAN 18th Game Thread - CHI +3.5, O/U 51.5
Stinger226 replied to adam's topic in Bearstalk
Stafford played in a dome forever and then sunny CA. When you get old the cold weather hurts just a little more. It's not about the wide outs, it's taking down Stafford. I thought before we would be lucky to win against GB but I'm now a believer,we can beat anybody. Each week JJ plays a little better. Gordon is now getting reps and I think D Jackson is a better pass defender. Booker keeps playing better and Sweat plays better against better teams. -
I liken Caleb to being a great 3 point shooter but misses layups frequently. You can learn to hit the layups but being a great shooter is hard to find. What the hell will be the narrative if we make it to the super bowl? It might happen, some seasons just seem magical. Take away the drinking of coolaid and we have a great source of entertainment.
