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Caleb has a lot more to work on than completion percentage. That will naturally raise it.

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fascinating, and more indications that the Caleb Williams we are projecting isnt just hope.

I agree with all of this. Id only add that if Kmet somehow quit football, we would have decent options at decent prices to replace him. Not perfect replacements, but decent ones. Durham Smythe has proved a lot this year too, for example. But Kmet already knows the playbook and has proven certain things to Johnson, so I can see us choosing him from our options, but if a really good trade offer came up, its not as if we couldnt fill the hole?

I did that once with a small knife on my keychain coming back from Roatan island and they pulled my luggage off the plane and did a cavity search. I was amazed it was two pretty latinas doing the search. I completely cooperated.

He still has a lot to work to do on his own in terms of accuracy, touch, etc, but just looking at the totality of it, there has never been even a 11% gap between 2 QBs in the NFL, let alone a 16% gap for the Comp Diff (+9.1 and -6.9).

If Lamar has major input in the OC hire, you think he wants a OC that never called plays before? I doubt it. You would have to have an amazing interview to sell that.

Blank was asked that direct question in an interview, ( oversees) , it's Ryan's job to hire the GM. I'm just repeating what I read, why would anyone take that job if all he's going to do is get coffee for Ryan. Didn't they room together in college or something like that? They probably have a close relationship. Isn't that the same job Warren has here? He doesn't make roster decisions here , Poles does.

I read that too. Using his low comp rate doesn't tell the whole story, it's more complicated than that.

I agree he's is playing below his pay level that's why I think he will take a restructured deal but that doesn't mean doesn't have value. BJ plays 2 TE scheme more than almost any other team. Who's the second TE, a rookie? I doubt it.

So I took my first deeper dive into Williams' comp% with some other advanced metrics. One I found interesting was xComp from NFL NextGenStats. It simply computes the expected completion percentage for a QB, and then the difference between the actual Comp% and the xComp to come up with a difference value. The normal is +/- 5. Anything over +5 is " extremely lucky" and anything under -5 is terrible luck. Basically those are the non-sustainable ranges. Looking back, it was hard for me to even find a Caleb Williams comp, a QB with over 500 attempts and Comp Diff of -5 or more. There was only one, Trevor Lawrence in 2021. He had a -5 Diff that year, and the following year, his Comp% went up 6.7% from the previous year. There were 2 other QBs with over 500 attempts, Murray in 2019 and Rodgers in 2024, but their Comp Diff were under 5. Williams is still in his own stratosphere at -6.9. There is a very high probability that his Comp% jumps 7% next year to around 65% without any actual changes, just regression to the norm. If he actually improves his own accuracy, then that could even go higher, but we will stick with the norm. 2019 Murray - 542, -3 (64.4 > 67.2) +2.8% 2021 Lawrence - 602, -5 (59.6 > 66.3) +6.7% 2024 Rodgers - 584, -4.7 (63 > 65.7) +2.7% 2025 Williams - 568, -6.9 (58.1 > ?) On the flip side, there was one QB with a +9.1 this year, that is the highest Comp Diff since the stat was tracked. Drake Maye. Tannehill 8.7 in 2019 on 286 attempts, dropped 4.8% the following year Fitzpatrick 7.2 in 2020 on 267 attempts, DNP in 2021 The only other recent comparison is Burrow in 2021 had a +5.9 and his Comp% dropped 2.1% the following year. Maye ended the season with a 72% Comp% and both him and Williams may end up next season with a comp% within 1-2% of each other. Considering they are basically 14% apart right now, that would almost seem unachievable, but the funny part is just comparing their xComps, Williams comes out on top. That is just how unlucky Williams has been (drops, etc) and how lucky Maye has been. Williams xComp 65% Maye xComp 62.8%

Matt Ryan has been named the Atlanta Falcons' President of Football as of January 10, 2026, leaving his role as a CBS Sports analyst to return to the organization. In this new front-office position, he oversees all football operations, reports to owner Arthur Blank, and is actively leading the search for a new head coach and general manager.

The owner came out and said the GM will make roster decisions that doesn't sound like he's a token hire. Will Ryan have input, of course but why hire a GM if you don't have anything for him to do.

yes but apparently, as team president, Ryan will make football decisions which makes their GM job not a step up for Cunningham in the sense that it would not garner the comp picks.

great idea!

Kmet has played well this year. I can see us keeping him. But I dont agree that he is a 1,000 yard receiver if Loveland wasnt here. Kmet is a good TE2 with better hands than you expect from a TE2, but he doesnt get separation, or run particularly nasty routes. He gets open against zone coverage, when other players take attention from the defense, but he isnt a man beater. He also blocks pretty well, but he isnt a league leader at that either. All in all hes a decent TE2, and we are paying him a little too much for that. Is it enough to move on from him? Probably not. I can see us keeping him, but i still dont think he plays up to his cap number. Last preseason i thought he was gone for sure, but I also said that he (or ANY player) can play themselves into a better situation, and while Kmet hasnt been a world beater, I think he has probably done that this year. Same with Swift. DJ Moore on the other hand has not. He also has a much bigger number to play up to, but his inconsistent effort is the biggest issue for me. If we are building a culture of accountability, and we are going to ride Odunze for his dropped balls (which we NEED to!) then you cant keep a jogger around or the message is lost.

Interesting. So they hired a defensive minded HC in Minter. Hm.

Lamar wanted the OC fired. Owner or maybe GM listened. After their playoff loss Harbaugh was told he could stay but had to fire the OC. Now he’s in NY.

Atlanta fired their GM

I could see a lot of transactions between the two teams going forward. The Cunningham thing will be interesting because somehow the GM in Atlanta is not the head football guy and would not warrant 2x 3rd Round comp picks. If that is the case, that is a terrible rule and loophole. The Bears should just promote Poles then and make Cunningham the GM by title.

Something I noticed and am not sure has been discussed yet is that Matt Ryan is the president of the Falcons. Ryan and Poles were roommates in college. Cross your fingers...

Curious. How so? Could the same be said for Sean McDermott in Buffalo?

IMHO its gonna be hard to justify him staying around on the contract alone, as it currently stands. With his contract set to expire in 2027 his pay is commiserate to the Top-10 TEs in the game this last year. His contract currently ranks #8 among TEs tied with Jake Ferguson with the Cowboys and just behind David Njoku with the Browns. Production wise he was near the bottom overall: (*Note the stats above were from somewhere midseason as I think he finished in the top 5 for total TDS caught by a TE. Still he ranked low in most all the other categories). I'm with you in hoping they manage to find a way to keep him (are we both stricken with the good-guy syndrome of liking our players too much? 😉). I have to believe not only will they find a way to restructure his contract especially given his history as not only a fan of the team growing up but also literally growing up near Chicago...and for all the things you mention.

On a more serious note. He was carrying the gun with the assumption it was ok to do so as he allegedly was ok to carry it in Wisconsin. Sounds like he was going the process of declaring (unloaded in hard case) it before boarding when they discovered he didn't have a permit to do so for NY. Naive kid = naive mistake. Don't see much coming out of this. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6999636/2026/01/26/packers-rasheed-walker-arrested-gun/