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I hate using injuries as an excuse, but it felt like every level had a few guys out every game. On the DL, Turner only played 74 defensive snaps. Jarrett seemed to be dealing with something most of the year. Odeyingbo, regardless of how disappointing he was when he played, still missed most of the season to injury. The LB Corps was playing with LB 3, 4, or 5 as starters for a good chunk of the year. So with some upgrades, this defense could really surprise.

Oh yeah, it really inflates lower quantity stats like INTs.

Thus the eye test. The eyes don't lie...

totally agree. Stats are misleading.

Zero chance Bryant is a downgrade from Byard. There's too much weight on stats. Let's go way back in history to Deion Sanders when nobody wanted to throw to his side of field. Lack of INT and PDs does not mean he was lesser of a player. Anyone can watch film and see Bryant is far better in coverage than Byard. In Byard's case they are also not weighing heavily enough the gaps in coverage when he let plays get past him.

Using AV, comparing last year's value, Dalman to Bradbury is only a slight downgrade 10-9, but both are above league average. Bryant is an upgrade over Brisker, but downgrade from Byard. Bush is an upgrade over Edmunds.

Yeah, it is just a way to approximate value in terms of production in a single number. You could also use it to assess draft successes after a few years. Guys like Loveland, Burden, and Monangai are all near the top for 2025, obviously Caleb is #1 in 2024, Wright tied for 12th in 2023. It's not perfect as it seems to award skill position players more value (or opportunity to get a higher rating). I will say AV feels much more accurate than something like PFF and it also gets better over time.

on the home page, is there any way to not have so much text under the thread link like it was before?

I agree with everything you said.

I saw where we scheduled a visit with Sam Hecht/O weC Kansas State University. I read that too. Rousher gave an Interview and that's what the journalist got out of it. With the top picks after you get the medicals,they have 99%of the information. IMO. No one has ever guessed right who Poles wants. Caleb was a no brainer but he surprises us with every draft. I like the ones they have brought in so far but misinformation is part of the process.

I read an article saying that we now use the visits to double check things we arent sure about - character stuff, maybe to check stiff hips etc etc - basically, that we dont visit the ones were most likely to take but those where we are missing some info or need to see first hand. IF this is true, then some will get crossed off of our lists based on the visit, and some will stay on, but it doesnt mean we prefer them necessarily. Anyway, thats if you believe the article I read. It's lying season, so anything is possible.

I think the word "value" is throwing people off. The AV is just supposed to be a measure of how good a player is compared to his team. Trying to get that into one stat is foolish in my view, but people love easy numbers they can point to. But given where the discussion has gone, it is a really interesting idea to take the AV (if you have faith in it) and divide it by the cap percentage the player takes up. Then you'd be able to see underpaid and overpaid players. Here's a description of how they get the number: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm

NFL TradeRumors seems to have the most up to date information. So far the people they have visits with, they are all day 3 projected picks. I would assume everyone they would take in the first 2 rounds already has done the major work on so these visits should be not top 100 players types and UDFAs .

Like AZ said, value should be related to contracts. Example: Edwards originally signed for a moderate contract and Edmunds got paid a fat contract. Looking at the time they were with the bears, Edwards was clearly more of a value because of the money when you could arguely agree that played similar. Whoever came up with the AV component, is there an explanation of the criteria they used?

It should be normalized that way. Garret contract will represent 13.3% of their cap space at 40mil/yr. He has to provide value equivalent to about 7 or 8 players assuming an average player contract value of 5mil. You need a few players on rookie contracts playing above their value to balance it out. Of course he is good enough to offset some lower performing players but in a game where you are one of 11 on the field how many? If you take his cap hit just for the defense he represents 26% off defensive money(assuming an even split between offense defense).

*Approximate Value - it's just supposed to be an objective view of their overall value, and of course that's a really hard stat to defend since everything is different for each player.

Money is not part of the equation.

Is that related to % of cap consumed by the player?

It's Average Value and is a blended stat to measure someone's value. It's like the WAR stat in baseball. IMO - the good ol eye test is king.

Forgive me, I only had 7 years of college. What is AV?

In replying to you and Stinger; yes 💯. Throw in the linebacker and DL units as well.

Yeah people forget the secondary injuries were crazy. Outside of losing Smith and Frazier right out the gate. Gordon only played in 3 games, all wins. Johnson played in 7 but was clearly not in shape for most of them. Stevenson missed several games. TJ Edwards also missed time at LB. So of the back 7, there will be zero players on the 2026 starting day roster that played in at least 15 games for the Bears last season.

I was looking up some numbers, basically to see how rare a situation Myles Garrett is in with his level of individual dominance combined with team failures and right off the bat, he is definitely up in the top 10 all-time. With a career AV of 123, he has only played in 3 playoff games. There are only 7 players with higher AV and 3 or fewer playoff games. 6 played pre-1970, leaving Willie Roaf as the only modern day player to have more AV with 3 or fewer playoff games. He has a 145 AV with only 3 playoff games. So if CLE misses the playoffs again in 2026, Garrett will pass Roaf during the 2027 season with the highest AV with fewest playoff games in NFL history (SB era). Of the other modern day players on the list, Roaf, Andre Johnson, Demario Davis, Patrick Peterson, and Adrian Peterson, all of them played for at least two different teams other than Garrett. A funny side note, 3 of the top 4 played for Detroit in the 50s-70s. One other interesting note was Bears-related. 3 Bears made the top 50. Urlacher(24), Briggs(28), and Walter(38). Khalil Mack (22) also made an appearance.

Seen Jimmy Rolder LB Michigan has a visit scheduled.

We talk about everything we need to add to the team to make it better. What about what will improve that is existing. It should be Caleb's breakout year in the second year in this offense. 4500 yards, 32 TDs ? The OL took a hit with the Ozzy injury and Dalman retirement. I think Bradbury will transition with no problems at all. He had no sacks and no penalties. I read where he didn't have one bad hike all year, Dalman had several of those. I think someone will step up at LT . Remember their replacing a rookie not a experienced starter. The running should be better with BJ knowing how to use Monangai and Swift with the offense. I think Moore will be missed but if Rome and Burden take the next step, it could be a more potent offense. Walker has upside and Raymond may be a big upgrade over Zaccheaus. One year of Loveland fitting in the offense, he should be a top 5 TE in stats. And Cole is very reliable leader in his spot. Our defense was bad so it can only get better when everyone is healthy. Gordon, Terrell Smith and a full year of JJ being healthy is a large leap forward. Cam Lewis is an upgrade over Gardner- Johnson as a cover corner that plays several positions. We have more speed with Jackson and Bush plus a healthy Edwards. Sanborn will be a more reliable backup than Sewell is. Booker should be breakout player on defense. Gallimore gives us more speed and a healthy Jarrett, Dayo and Turner can't hurt. We will add two high round picks on the DL. Safety should add a high draft pick to go along with Bryant and upgrade over Brisker.