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Saw a thread on Twitter about EPA, so in looking for one thing, I ran across some interesting plays. These were the most impactful negative plays against Williams so far this season that were not an Interception or fumble lost: Week 8 - BAL - Bears down 30-16 with 33 seconds left. 4th and 1, Incomplete pass to DJ Moore, -3.9 EPA Week 6 - WSH - Bears up 13-7, 2nd Quarter, 4th and 1, Incomplete pass to Odunze, -3.5 EPA Week 4 - LVR - Fumble but recovered, 4th Quarter, 3rd and 5, -2.6 EPA Week 2 - DET - 2nd Quarter, 4th and 1, rush for no gain, -3.5 EPA Week 1 - MIN - 2nd Quarter, 4th and 3, incomplete to Moore, -3.5 EPA (2nd most important play of that game) Week 1 - MIN - 1st Quarter, 3rd and 2, Odunze for -4 yards, -2.3 EPA (9th most important play of that game) These were all top-10 most impactful plays for that week (for either team). A few things stand out, they treat a turnover on downs as bad as an INT, but only on the QB. If a receiver makes a reception but loses yards on the play, that is also on the QB. Garbage time stats still matter, which can pad stats but also hurt. In this case, Caleb lost 3.9 EPA on the last play of the game against BAL down 14 pts. The fumbled snap against LVR which lost 6 yards was -2.6 EPA. These plays are considered so bad that it takes a monster play to offset them or several positive plays.

Giants front 7 makes me a little nervous for this game if the Bears have to play from behind late in the game. Luckily, the Giants are just as terrible against the run as the Bengals were, so if they can continue running the ball, that'll alleviate many of my fears about their pass rush. On the flip side, Dart has found out ways to still be effective without his top weapons. He's really dangerous with his legs. No Tee Higgins and Jamar Chase this week, but the Bears can't take the Giants lightly. Dennis Allen needs to step up and call a better game, too. After this game, the schedule gets a lot more difficult. Just get to 6-3, and then let's beat the shit out of Minnesota the following week to really catapult this team into serious playoff contention.

Ah. Then I think this one comes down to coaching…and maybe homefield advantage. With the edge to Shannahan. If Johnson pulls off the win, he’d be raised a few more notches. And how about if Moody were to come back and kick for that game and the Bears win because of a last minute FG?

Ah. I misread what I saw about the Falcon game. I thought they were down by one in the fourth. When in fact (ironically) Penix was actually the one trying to make the comeback for Atl.

Week 10 - 1. Maye - XXX Season QBR: 74.2, 2,285 yards, 17-4 TD-INT, 34 Sacks, 2 TD, 1 FL 2. Penix - XXX Season QBR: 57.7, 1649 yards, 8-3 TD-INT, 10 Sacks, 1 TD, 1 FL 3. Williams - XXX Season QBR: 55.4, 1916 yards, 12-4 TD-INT, 14 Sacks, 2 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD. 4. Nix - 53.4 QBR - 150 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 sack, -2 Rush Yds. 148 Total Yards. Won Season QBR: 54.9, 2126 yards, 18-8 TD-INT, 10 Sacks, 3 TD 5. Daniels - XXXX Season QBR: 51.1, 875 yards, 7-1 TD-INT, 13 Sacks, 2 FL 6. Rattler - XXX Season QBR: 50.1, 1450 yards, 8-4 TD-INT, 1 FL (benched for rookie) 7. McCarthy - XXX Season QBR: 31.8, 444 yards, 4-4 TD-INT, 14 Sacks, 2 Rush TD

Can you imagine the media firestorm if Williams threw 2 INTs with several other bad throws, only had 150 yards passing with one of them for 43 yds, which means the other 15 were for 107 yards? Instead, Nix wins Player of the Game, lmao! The game-winning FG came after a blocked punt where the offense lost 2 yards. Nix in his last 2 games combined: 34-65, 52.3%, 323 yds, 4.97 Y/A, 3 TD, 3 INT - but both were wins, so he is gritty. In those 2 games, DEN allowed a total of 22 pts and scored 28 lmao.

Yeah, the difference is Payton is better than Nagy. Outside of like 5 quarters of play, Nix has been terrible. In those 5 quarters though, All Pro QB. In the other 35, not an NFL starter. Carroll was a great coach and rah rah guy, but not anymore. He looks lost out there.

Could just be related to how much he steps forward as he throws. A shorter step and your body tends to rise up as you throw leading to a higher pass. A longer setup flattens or the arc or the arm leading to a bit of an under throw. Ben Johnson made him change his footwork this year so imaybe we shouldn’t be surprised there is some inconsistency.

I assume by your comment, you watched tonight's game? Pete Carroll is an idiot. Why in the h*ll did he allow G Smith to return to the field when he could hardly walk? STUPID!!!

Great to see credit be given to this oline. This squad can run block and a good run team opens the pass. This makes it much easier for Caleb to grow confidence in his abilities which if he get dialed in, we can see a special player.

Bo Nix is 2018 Mitchell Trubisky on this Broncos team. Where would he be without that defense?

Watching the all 22, one thing that stood out to me is that Caleb was overthrowing guys. the previous week he was underthrowing them, and he needed to do a better job of getting the ball out in front of receivers so they can run. That feels like he's trying to dial it in. And it's not making the same mistakes weeks in a row.

Thank you. I found a setting and the ad blocker was off. If you dont have that on this site is difficult. I think I turned it off because my service was not finding the server. All back to normal now.

I also couldn't embed the video so just posted the link. It is interesting to listen to former Oline talk about what they see in the game. As good as Darnell Wright's block was even better was watching Benedet move a DB right off the field. What made me laugh was watching the trailing officials reaction to it which starts at this screenshot.

Louis Reddick is a believer.

It's been working for me. Plus I use an ad blocker with my browser. It lest me unblock posts from X, and still block ads. Hope that helps.

Right. He sees problems and then he fixes them. Cant wait to see where he takes us.

I liked that , yesterday is the first time I seen this podcast. It popped up on my YouTube feed when I hit Chicago Bears. When I tried to post it, it just popped up a black screen and said video unavailable.

Posting this here... has the server been down? Had trouble the last 2 days accessing the site and now it has advertisements all over the place. Plus I cannot click on the last comment but have to scroll page to page.

It's all narratives. Clearly Caleb is up there already, even as he is making lots of mistakes still. All the recent QBs we've had were nothing like Caleb is right now, imperfect as he is. The reason the word "generational" is thrown around is that we can clearly see that Caleb has LOTS of room for improvement, and yet he's still on pace to shatter the all time best season by a Bears QB. after 2 years, Caleb as a rookie put up the 5th best season, and he is on pace to have the best season as a passer in Bears history. Right now, the Bears offense is 3rd in the league for yards. Our Passing yards is 10th, and our Running yards is 2nd. We are 6th in scoring. And remember those first two weeks where we were awful? They account for 1/4 of those stats too. That's how good Williams and Johnson have been. Some guys are just mediocre. Caleb is amazing and great, but he is still making a lot of mistakes, so he averages out to mediocre. The consistently mediocre player wont get better, but when Caleb becomes more consistent, and makes fewer mistakes, he is going to be elite.

3 QB is in the MVP discussion with odds: Josh Allen: +150 (1,833 Pass Yds, 13 TD, 4 INT, 280 Rush Yds, 7 Rush TD) Justin Herbert: +2000 (2,390 Pass Yds, 18 TD, 8 INT, 305 Rush Yds, 1 Rush TD, 9 games) Baker Mayfield: +2000 (1,919 Pass Yds, 13 TD, 2 INT, 158 Rush Yds) ------------------------------------------------------ Caleb Williams: (1,916 Pass Yds, 12 TD, 4 INT, 183 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD)

I am giving Allen the benefit of the doubt right now as they have been working mainly with their 5th and 6th CB as starters for most of the year. No Jaylon, a lot of no Kyler, some no Tyrique. Lost Zah Frazier and Terrell Smith for the year. Brisker still not looking 100%. I know everyone has injuries but the secondary was supposed to be a strength. The DLine, especially the DTs have been super disappointing. Billings, Dexter, Jarrett all have underperformed, which has seemed to bring down everyone else.