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  1. Past hour
  2. The AI commentary cracked me up. All over the place and repeating itself many times.
  3. AZ54 replied to AZ54's topic in Bearstalk
    IMO comparing this pool video to Gilbert years ago is taking it out of context. Gilbert literally had almost no highlights to his production at a small school. He was drafted purely on a traits projection. Here we're taking a 6yr old video of a high school kid who was already focused on improving his athletic ability. At 240lbs he was still growing and had no idea what he'd grow into as a player. Watching his press conference, and seeing his work out numbers, it's clear his work ethic is still there to this day. He played in the ACC against good programs last year: Clemson, Georgia, Duke, BC, NC State, Pitt, and BYU and had production in those games. That's a lot better level of competition than San Jose St. Given the level of competition having an average depth of tackle of -0.11 is pretty good.
  4. Today
  5. AZ54 replied to AZ54's topic in Bearstalk
    The value charts always assume a linear value to players and picks. Poles said they had excluded a lot more players this year and were very focused on finding "football guys". That narrow focus means there are going to be some big cliffs and valleys in players on their board throughout the process. Using OC as the example, the Bears led the workout for Sam Hecht. They said they were in on as many OC workouts via Roushar as they could be. They had a very good idea on which OCs fit their scheme best and that increases the grade and value of Logan Jones by a lot in their eyes. While the rest of the NFL draft world has him graded similarly to Hecht and maybe a couple others. They went and got their guy locked in early and that doesn't bother me as long as the evaluation is right. At the point of the trade down I saw your points analysis and agreed it was clear Poles well selling low to get the additional pick. As of today we lost on the trade value charts but if Malik Muhammad turns into a good starting CB2 for us then I'd say we won the value battle finding that talent in the 4th. Plus adding a good depth LB with starting potential on a pick we never had. Given the way the draft happened and this tight fit on evals makes me wonder why we avoided guys like Dani Dennis-Sutton. It's the late 3rd Rd pick on a WR where all this meshes into a WTF moment. Certainly if any of those Edge or DT prospects were one of Poles players we'd have grabbed them in the 3rd. Darrell Jackson Jr., Kaleb Proctor, Gracen Halton. In my mind, and in my mocks, several of those players were logical choices for us at that pick.
  6. Mongo3451 replied to AZ54's topic in Bearstalk
    Uhh, it actually is...🤔🤌🤌🤌
  7. Sam Roush at 6'7 270# will be playing a big role helping the LT. I've seen experts say that they had him in the 2nd. Now WR Thomas, I thought was a round early but who knows, Witgen who the Steelers drafted round 4 is a similiar player that I was taking round 7. Thomas has more juice and maybe the Bears have Hester 2.0 We watched those DT/DEs go later than we took them in simulators, so I feel the league told us how they feel about their readiness to see playing time this season. The Bears roster is pretty full on the dline, so they are going with those guys and will emphasize better coaching to get what they need. The Bears selections fit their needs, not ours. Believe me, I wanted a DE and DT. The kid we took in the 6th basically outperformed Woods who went in the first and you know he will be a full effort player.
  8. I agree 100%. It was the only pick I’m still pretty unsure about. I’m sure they have a plan, but I would rather a more well rounded receiver than what seem like a speed/gadget/return guy. Skyler Bell or Bryce Lance seemed like better picks at WR with some return ability over Thomas. But I guess we’ll see.
  9. So I wanted to see who was more correct, the consensus on players (big boards) or where teams selected them. I have more work to do with this, but here is a quick snapshot. I looked at 2023 and 2024, just rounds 1-3, and identified the 3 lowest producing players based on their draft slot, the busts. Then I compared that to where the big board had them. In 11 out of 18 the team drafted the player higher than the consensus, making bad picks into busts. The consensus only had 5 players higher than they were drafted that turned out to be busts. So the consensus is over 2x more accurate than the teams own evaluations. Meaning that if all these teams stuck to the big board, they would've had 2x better odds at hitting on a player. 2023 Van Ness @ 13 (27th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG Anudike-Uzomah @ 32 (32nd) - BOTH WRONG Murphy @ 28 (17th) - CONSENSUS REALLY WRONG 2nd Round Ojulari @ 41 (57th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG Cam Smith @ 51 (41st) - CONSENSUS REALLY WRONG Foskey @ 40 (73rd) - TEAM REALLY WRONG 3rd Round Hooker @ 68 (47th) - CONSENSUS REALLY WRONG Stromberg @ 97 (N/A) - TEAM REALLY WRONG Ika @ 98 (88th) - CONSENSUS REALLY WRONG 2024 McCarthy @ 10 (28th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG Chop Robinson @ 21 (40th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG Darius Robinson @ 27 (61st) - TEAM REALLY WRONG Polk @ 37 (48th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG Sinnot @ 53 (105th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG Rakestraw @ 61 (46th) - CONSENSUS REALLY WRONG Trice @74 (98th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG Reiman @82 (202nd) - HOLY SHIT TEAM REALLY WRONG Lloyd @88 (84th) - BOTH WRONG
  10. adam posted a topic in Bearstalk
    My hope and theory is the Bears have something in place to address an upgrade at Edge, but it won't come until after June 1st, whether that is with a free agent or thru a trade. That is my only hope, otherwise this feels like a very weak offseason where they side-graded because of the losses at C and S. So the additions of Bradury and Jones are a wash with Dalman. Bryant and Thieneman are an upgrade at Safety, but if the DLine can't stop the run or rush the passer, how effective will the secondary even be? Then on offense, you traded your WR1 in hopes that your other guys will elevate, but ultimately all the other moves were rotational or backup in nature. So technically, the offense is worse on paper going into 2026 and you still have questions at LT.
  11. The way they talked about him, he would be almost exclusively a STer with some gadget plays mixed in. They also signed Raymond, so this again feels like a luxury. I hope he proves me wrong, but I would've rather had competition at Edge and DT earlier in the draft with more accomplished guys than what feels like filling niche roles on the roster.
  12. Look at the list of the top 25 fastest WRs in the NFL, the list is basically 90% garbage, like 2-3 guys actually became decent, but for the most part, none of them could actually do their primary job, run routes and catch balls, they could just run the 40 really fast in shorts. I would rather have tangible production and experience. QB is the same way. Traits guys are cool, but rarely do guys with very low volume ever amount to anything in the NFL. I know the team has to use some metric to evaluate, but when it is strictly athleticism, that doesn't always translate.
  13. I hope I am wrong, but this draft felt too cute. Too much I am smarter than everyone else vibes. I could be wrong, but it just feels that way. A lot of the players were mocked to the Bears, but almost all were a round or even two rounds later. What that means is you are only getting 1-2 starters out of this group when you really need 3-4, especially when you had an extra 2nd rounder. DJ Moore was basically traded for Sam Roush.
  14. This trade was so bad that the Bears could've gotten a 6th rounder from TEN and the Bears still would've lost the trade.
  15. Saying you were just playing the board is basically deflecting potential future criticism. It wasn't my fault, it was how the board fell. That just feels like a cop out to me. The only pick that may have been "BPA" from the 2nd on was Muhammad, and they had to trade up to get him. Van den Berg is a project, which is what the later rounds are for, so I am fine with that pick too. I just didn't like the sequence from 57 - 169. How do you lose value moving back? That is still a head scratcher to me. The Bears paid more to move 5 picks in the late 4th (-4) than TEN did to move up 9 (-21). In the Bears two trades, they lost of the exact value of Pick #166. That is a lot to lose in draft capital in two moves.
  16. adam replied to Stinger226's topic in Bearstalk
    Moss was Caleb's backup at USC.
  17. adam replied to AZ54's topic in Bearstalk
    Unfortunately this is Poles evaluation criteria. This is why Velus Jones was drafted, why Claypool was traded for. Not actual on the field production. All the events are not even realistic without gear on. A 250 lbs dude can carry more weight with less impact than a 180 lbs dude. It's not like the equipment worn is lighter or smaller for the lighter guys.
  18. adam replied to AZ54's topic in Bearstalk
    I am honestly ok with the picks, but when you consider they came into the draft with 2x 2nd rounders, then traded back and lost value, then traded back up and lost more value. That sequence was not ideal. The other teams got Hill Jr, at 60, Sam Hecht, C at 144, and Will Lee III, CB at 129 for Roush, TE, Muhammad, CB, and Elliott, LB.
  19. Yeah, I think B- or C+ is what it is for 2026.
  20. In the history of the NFL and pro football, this has always been fact. Amazing, all-pro DBs eventually get burned if the DL provides no pressure. On the other hand, average DBs can look great if the DL gives the QB no time at all. Pressure on the QB will always supersede great coverage. Having said that, I really like the Thieneman pick!
  21. jason replied to AZ54's topic in Bearstalk
    Right? I don’t give a damn about pools or RAS or anything that shows extreme athleticism if the player was just average otherwise on the football field. Fencik over Archuletta.
  22. jason replied to Stinger226's topic in Bearstalk
    LOL. That dude is stiff as hell. He stands straight up like someone who has lower back issues and needs to stretch out. I see why he wasn’t drafted.
  23. Pixote replied to AZ54's topic in Bearstalk
    IDK, hope you're right. When they showed him jumping out of the pool, all I could think of was Gilbert and how much of a huge flop he was. I even had a rant on the forum a few days ago, saying one of the things I wanted Poles to avoid was anyone jumping out of a pool. LOL
  24. I’m sure you can find his comments but his overall grade was a B. His biggest concern was we didn’t get an Edge. A concern we all share.

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