BearFan PHX

there are lots of things to have opinions about. That Justin had a problem pulling the trigger isnt an opinion. It's a well chronicled fact. I am happy to admit that most things on here are opinion. Just because I have one doesnt mean I think it's the only one, or that everyone must agree - that's some kind of projection on me, but it isnt what i think. But at the same time, Im not going to live in a post modern context where nothing is real and anything can be true. That's BS. Justin has a problem playing in structure. Every pundit says it. His college scouting says it. The fact that we traded him, and what his worth was to us and the rest of the league says it. It is an incontrovertible fact. And so, pretending that there is some character flaw in me because I declare a fact a fact, is nonsense, and gratuitous. It is just is. When I say Jayden Daniels doesnt make reads or turn his head after the snap thats a claim Im making that can be proven right or wrong. There is no subjective nature to whether someone turned their head or not - they either did or they didnt, and you can count how many times each happens and get a sense of the pattern. Thats not an opinion. These ARE opinions: Daniels will grow and overcome this tendency and be amazing in the NFL Daniels is going to lead a team to a superbowl Daniels is going to score more points than any QB ever did I cant say anyone saying those things are wrong. Those are unknowns. I can have contrary opinions, but they would just be opinions. But if I say Justin wore the number 1 on his jersey, thats not an opinion. And neither is what Im saying about Fields or Daniels ability to go through progressions. They are easily seen on tape over and over. Taking shots at me personally (when that happens) is not a substitute for doing ones own homework. Maybe youll tell me "youre wrong I watched a game where Daniels made tons of second reads" and that would be a substantive claim, so I'd say "cool what game was it" and then on your recommendation, Id actually go watch the game to evaluate your claim. I wouldnt say "well youre not Kurt Warner so what do you know?" Id just be glad for the claim to go learn. And then if I saw it too Id say "well thats amazing, youre right in this game he did it - so I guess he has that capability" and then Id go look at even more games to see how common it was. Maybe the games Ive seen were a poor sample. Im totally open to that. I mean, I change my mind all the time. I wasnt sold on Caleb a couple months ago. Then i watched several hours of all 22 film, and that changed my mind. I have no reason to not like Jayden Daniels. He throws a beautiful ball. But I watched the tape and saw what I saw. So Id please ask people to stop rebutting my tape based claims with personal responses like "youre not Kurt Warner" or whatever. Or Ill just start responding it kind, and it can be like a kindergarden in here. "no YOURE a poop" "no YOU are" - it's not an argument that expands anyones understanding of anything. I also would like if anyone who said I was a Justin hater because there is something wrong with ME, that I am angry, or mean etc to admit that what I said about him turned out to be true, that Poles and the NFL agreed with me, so since I wasnt wrong, it wasnt coming from some bad character, and simply that I saw something in the tape. But I wont hold my breath.

exactly. it aint hard. But his description of Justin Fields is at odds with what the tape shows. When a guy is looking right at an open receiver, and that open receiver is hitting his break before any others, and Justin's hips are pointed toward that receiver, and his arm is up to throw - it isn't hard to know that was his first read. And when you can see the guy is open but Justin doesnt throw the ball, it doesnt take a genius at all to know that Fields is hesitating and not pulling the trigger. When you see it over and over, then you know it's a flaw in his game. And then you read a ton of people writing the same thing, and then you go back to college scouts saying the same thing. It's kind of hard to say "well you dont know what his progression was so you dont know" so i responded symmetrically, that he doesnt know how to break down tape. Im not suggesting it's hard to do or Im the only one who can do it either. But yeah, there is a reason that no one wanted Fields as a starter. that's not because of me, I'm just some guy noticing it, and if he thinks it's not true, then he is just a guy who isn't noticing it.

with due respect, you dont know how to watch the tape.

right, of course we judge QBs if they dont take their teams on their back in the 4th quarter and will a score, but if your defense is giving up more than 35 points regularly, it's hard to blame the QB. I never blamed Justin for all the losses, but I did criticize his performance.

Football is a team sport so wins and losses are never a QB stat. Of course if you can point to reasons why a game was won or lost because of the QB play, then that's different, but if youre putting up 30+ points and being beaten 38-34, it's hard to put that on the QB, just like in the games where Eberflus went to a prevent defense way too early and blew large leads, those losses werent Justin's fault.

Yeah Jayden is a great athlete, and i think he has a better arm than Caleb does. I also think Daniels does a great job with presnap reads. He runs well too. But I consistently see on Daniels' tape that he locks onto hi receiver from the snap, which is going to be a real problem int he NFL as defenders are drawn to the guy he is staring down, and i never see Daniels make a second read. Now on most plays, he doesnt have to. So for example, Daniels stars down Nabers, but Nabers is open and Daniels delivers the ball in tempo and with good location. A play like that fits my point, but I'd call it a success, because the first read was the right read and Daniels made it. ANd often with his two great WRs that first read was open, so you see a lot of plays that you say "great, Daniels did the right thing" - but then you see how often he runs too. ANd hes a good runner so often you think "great Daniels did the right thing" so he has a lot of good plays. BUT if you dig deeper, youll see he never looks off the safety and there are scant few examples of him going to a second read before he runs. And that is a problem that may not be immediately apparent to people watching the tape unless they are watching for this specifically. And if he doesnt clean it up, he will not succeed in the NFL. If you watch his head on every play, it's pretty glaring once you see it. Now, there is nothing written in stone that says an NFL coach cant develop him to have these skills. I am not going to predict that he CANT develop, but i am going to say that right now he is not NFL ready, and if you take him, you take the same risk you took with Justin. And when I look at Caleb, I see a guy who is much more NFL ready in the way he plays the QB position. The way he manipulates the pocket like Aaron Rodgers, and the way he scans the field, and manipulates defenders. Maye is a much better "QB" in this way than Daniels, although Daniels has a better arm than both Maye and Williams. So at some point, you gotta ask yourself whether youre drafting a physical set of tools that you think you can control from the sidelines, or whether youre drafting a QB who can play the game mentally.

well said, I totally agree.

the question of more picks vs fewer but higher picks is a classic one. I think it depends on where your roster is. When you have nothing you need more players, but when you have a lot of holes filled, you start to look for blue chippers who will be upgrades and not just volume of picks - especially if you believe in your ability to identify talent. 6th round picks, for example, are less valuable to us than they were two years ago. I expect Poles to add quality over quantity at this point int he rebuild, and so i agree with adams assessment that a trade down isnt absolutely necessary, and trading future LOWER picks is in play. That isnt to say that a trade down of pick 9 isnt possible, but it would be more likely to target a player like JPJ for example and to avoid overdrafting him, rather than simply to pick up more players? Once you get to the 3rd round, then all bets are off because the difference in talent as you drop down is a lot less. So Im really speaking of the first and second rounds here. So this year, picks 1 and 9. I agree with ASHKUM that we may be trading down the 3rd rounder.

Daniels has all the physical tools, but he locks on to one receiver. Often thats not a problem because the guy is open, but when he isnt, Daniels runs. I havent seen him get to a second receiver or look off a safety. And that will be necessary in the NFL. Caleb does it all the time.

yes they were the masters of this for a while.

good thoughts. and yes, the three year cycle that began after the 2022 tank year opened all that space, and now our rookies wont be looking for second contracts until the first wave hits in 2026. Thats why we still had big cap money this year too. Poles is getting us into rhythm with a roster and then we will have to trade out and replace players to stay ahead of the clock.

yes Daniels has freakish accuracy on deep balls and is better at that than Williams. Daniels probably has the best arm in the draft, although Penix has a rocket too, and Williams is no slouch, but Daniels and Penix just flick it. The point in the Williams film was just that he doesnt hold the ball like they said he does. He makes fast decisions and gets the ball out. And Daniles does too, but only if the primary receiver is open, which he often was with those two studs at WR he had.

well watch some film and see if what Im saying is mostly true or mostly not true. If all you can do is compare the pedigree of the people making the statements, then you miss the opportunity to take what Im saying, and not believe it or disbelieve it, but instead evaluate the truth of it with your own eyes. Watch 30 snaps and see if you see his head moving, or if he locks onto receivers. Nothing is 100% either way of course, but youll see what Im saying is true a lot of the time with Daniels. But basically Im not asking you to trust me or take what i say on faith, more to use what Im saying as questions that you answer yourself with your own eyes. Thats what I do, I hear different opinions, and then I watch the tape. It becomes pretty clear after that. I dont always think Kurt Warner is that good at the analysis. He knows a lot more than I do about NFL quarterbacking, but when i watch his tape he says things that i sometimes see differently. I am much more aligned in general with what JT OSullivan thinks. I usually agree with what he sees. Not always, but usually. But it doesnt matter, we can all use our own eyes to evaluate assertions like the one I made. I'll watch the Warner film and take time stamped notes about how often he: turns his head throws to a second read runs and then you can watch each play and tell us honestly whether you saw his head turn when I say it didnt or vice versa. Theres a stripe right on top of it - it's not subtle, we will all see it when we look. it doesnt take a PHD to see if a guy locks on to the WR from the snap, or looks around.

ok this is all well said. I see what you mean. i dont agree with it in every circumstance, and it's a matter of degree, but its a good point youre making.

lol well I hate that word too, and the best I can say is that hes a great prospect with a generational ceiling. There is still every chance that Waldron could ruin him too. And Im not saying that because i have anything bad to say about Waldron, Im actually very optimistic about him, but I was also excited for Nagy, so I guess we just have to wait and see what actually happens. But yeah, I think Williams has as good a chance as we've ever had to be that GOAT type QB.

well, just think about it logically. If Poles got a 3rd round offer (thats an IF, I dont know what his offers were) and accepted a 6th round offer instead because he wanted to be nice to Fields and give him his choice of team, then he would be choosing what's best for Fields over what's best for the team. And that was precisely my concern with the hug. I'm glad it didn't go so far as keeping Fields, but IF that's what happened, how else could you read it but loyalty to Fields over loyalty to the team? You're hugging a guy, and then you're trading him away. It's kind of a mixed message that might make you feel guilty, and say, give up a 3rd round pick to be "fair" to Justin. And why else would you do that, but loyalty to the player over the team?

If Poles gave up a 3rd rounder to make Justin happy, then I was right about the hugs.

if you get a chance to watch game film on Daniels watch how his head never turns. He locks onto his receiver at the snap and stares him down the whole way. He doesnt influence safeties at all. Then he either throws the ball to the guy hes locked on to, in rhythm and with good location for a good play, or he takes the ball down and runs. He just doesnt move his head at all - it's kind of wild. He makes great pre snap reads, and has a great athletic toolbox including a hell of an arm, but unless his first read is open, hes gonna run. And it worked pretty well for him because he had great receivers in college and they were usually open. But you wont see him stand in the pocket and turn his head to influence a safety or look at a second option.

I think due to various circumstances, the average opinion on Williams here on this board is lower than it truly is, and the distance between him and the other prospects is seen as closer than it really is too.

agree with all of that, and i will piggy back on your last sentence to say that we wont get a stud at every one of the positions you listed this year, but we will finish the job next year. And that's why I dont think we will trade down to address all those spots, but look to address some of them with superior talent. Im not sure of this, but it's what I'd do.

LOL thats crazy, and kind of awesome. I do not recommend that poles do this, because i dont think it'd work out, but damn if i KNEW it would end up like that, it'd be insane!

Poles really is killing it as far as the roster goes. We Bears fans deserve this. It's been way too long.

To me Jayden Daniels has a ton of positives, but I do see one glaring negative that i think will prevent him from being elite or possibly even successful in the NFL. It's very similar to the way that Justin had a ton of gifts, but one fatal flaw too. So the positives on Daniels are easy to see: He has an elite arm - makes all the throws with velocity and excellent placement He can run He makes good presnap reads He delivers the ball to his primary receiver on time and in tempo. and to be fair, he has excellent receivers and often the primary receiver is where the ball needs to go. but I also see he NEVER turns his head to look at anyone else. and when his primary receiver is covered, he runs. He also locks on to his primary receiver from the snap, and doesn't look safeties off. So his eyes are not reading more than one receiver, and not manipulating the defense. If he doesnt learn to fix this, then he will be solved by NFL defenses just as Justin has been. However, he's a young guy, and there is nothing written in stone that says he wont develop these skills with next level coaching. He will have his few years to grow, and if he can learn this, then his skill set will bring him a lot of success. But you rarely see people going from never doing something to doing it well. So for me, he is QB4 in this draft behind Williams, Maye and even JJ McCarthy. There is no way I'd take Daniels with a top 3 pick. The good news is that it looks like the Vikings have amassed enough ammo to trade up to pick #3, and he does feel like a Viking QB to me. I'd love to have our zone oriented defense feast on his poor eye discipline and lack of reading ability. Two caveats: 1) I am watching Chase Daniels break him down right now, and Daniels said "he has all the tools and reads defenses well" but all I see are excellent pre snap reads, not moving through progressions, it's as if once the ball is snapped, his neck is fused. 2) Daniels is slight of stature, and while I dont think every good QB has to have prototypical size, if he ends up on the Vikings, I will enjoy Sweat folding him like laundry

Good stuff. also, Allen isn't known a speedster, but as a route runner. Raw speed loses a step after 30, but route running ages like fine wine. We cant expect him to play at 40 like Rice did. But Rice was a route runner too, and there was no way Randy Moss could have played that long, because his game depended on his speed. So I think Allen still has some left in the tank. Maybe even a few years.

from the Hill chart (if that helps) pick #1 = 1000 points pick #11 = 358 points pick #23 = 245 points together they equal 603 points pick #2 = 717 points pick #3 = 514 points. From this one could guess that Minnesota is planning on trading up with NE to the 3rd pick for Jayden Daniels or JJ McCarthy. I hope it's Daniels, because while he has a gun of an arm, Daniels is a one read QB, and he's slight of build so Sweat is going to break him like a twig. IF Minnesota wanted to get up to #2, theyd need 114 more points. Next year's first rounder is probably worth about 130ish points, so they could reach #3 with this years picks, or Dav is right they would need to add in next years #1 to get to #2. But they'd still be nowhere near the regular value of #1 in a normal year, no less one with Williams.