BearFan PHX

I think the Bears biggest opponent will be how well they fulfill their own potential. It'll all be about coaching and execution. Which is always true, but in this case we have serious winning potential.

they gave him the boot

I dunno how closely past stats predict future outcomes, especially with so much noise in the system, but I still loved your bold font! And youre right, the stats dont take into account whether Williams will be more than an average QB as defined in those stats. Im cautious about expecting perfection, but his floor is awfully high too. He is more NFL ready than most ever are coming into the league, so hes already probably the 15th best QB in the league right now without even having learned a thing in training camp yet. And by learning I dont mean like "oh thats what cover 3 is" but more just the average speed and level of talent in the league, and what is exploitable and what isnt. One really good thing for Caleb is that he is going to face our secondary in practice a lot, and thankfully they are a good test. Especially if he starts picking them apart and they get better as a result too. Everything in football is a multiplier, the ultimate team game. If just one piece is a 0, then everything is a 0. But when your roster is good, then the players elevate each other by having to play against them all week. I've heard that the 1985 Bears offense found gameday to be the easiest day of the week for them. Games were easier than playing against their own defense during the week.

Youre not wrong at all. I just loved the idea that something was being asserted as more than just an opinion for once, and in a bold font! But I you're right, I have to agree.

true. i guess the flip side is that Indy probably felt like they had no running game, so they threw a lot? I have no problem thinking that Williams might match the per pass numbers that Luck put up, but I wonder if he will have as many attempts? I think the Bears offense will be a balanced attack, which will be great for taking all the load off of Williams' shoulders, while being a total nightmare for defenses. We've talked a lot about the problems our receiver group will present to defenses, and whether Caleb can execute enough to make that talent shine, but we havent spoken much about our new running back and how much worse it's gonna be when we have a good ground game while simultaneously putting all those WRs out there. The big winner in the Williams / Odunze draft is going to be our HB Swift. I think our new motto should be "Who needs Taylor, when we've got D'Andre?" LOL

I remember the Bears losing the NFC Championship game to Joe Montana in 1984. The '85 roster was mostly complete, so they had the talent, but not the identity yet. They needed to go through that, to know how good they needed to be to get there, and how far down deep inside they had to reach to become truly great. And while an era of bears dominance will be great, I personally hope that KC doesnt fade to give us space for it, but instead, we have to learn to dominate and take it from them at their best, like Jordan and Bulls who couldn't get past the Pistons until they were so good that they never got stopped again. Those failures sharpen the blade until it cuts through anything. Obviously I want to see it happen quickly, but I want to see it for real, not because a fumble went our way or KC double doinks an easy FG that should have been a game winner. No, I want to take victory decisively from opponents, and dictate dominance so that we absolutely deserve our success. That kind of bully team is what I've waited 40 years to see again. So if it takes a few key defeats to harden this steel, it will be worth it. By the time we played the Rams in the playoffs in 1985, no one was thinking "we'd better be careful" or "how can we edge by them?" we expected and delivered a total beatdown, the Rams were humbled and outclassed. In fact the Bears didn't allow a SINGLE POINT throughout the playoffs that year, and only surrendered 10 points in the superbowl, a game in which we scored 46 points. Losing to Montana in 84 taught them that being good wasnt enough. Beating most teams wasnt enough. They got a glimpse of what dominance really was, and that drove them in the 85 season to become truly great.

for sure, it will be bumpy. I still think Williams will put up numbers, but will he lose a game or two by being baited at a critical point into a turnover? Could well be. So I expect evidence of greatness, some rookie mistakes, and some adversity. How that shakes out into wins and losses I dunno, but what it portends for the future should be clear.

adam, that all seems about right to me too

I just like that not EVERYTHING is an opinion

truth! and this season is just the warm up band. The 2025 season we should be bona fide super bowl contenders. With this roster we can climb the mountain to become a top 5 team, and even get to the super bowl. The real test will be what it takes to overcome and defeat Kansas City. It might take a minute, like the Bulls getting past the Pistons. I could imagine losing a super bowl to KC before going on a run of multiple championships.

it's a good point, but any GM will have their hits and misses. The questions within their control are how quickly they admit they missed on the misses and whether they are able to solve the problem quickly with another solution. I definitely have hope that one of the two center options will be good, but I don't need Poles to hit 100% for us to be successful. It's just extra bad if you keep failing at the same position for sure. Still there is reason to believe one of the two at least will be decent, and perhaps Connor is waiting in the wings. Or a trade deadline solution.

that made me happy

I think the Bears defense in total was top 5 for the last 12 weeks of the season, i.e. once we got Sweat in there. Doesn't mean they will be top 5 next year, or that they will dominate the good teams, but I can see why there is reason to hope they will?

adam, cool and interesting analysis as always. Thanks for that.

me too! never heard of them! I googled it and found that link. Crazy.

who knew? https://jmusports.com/news/2023/11/12/football-jmu-rises-to-18-in-ap-top-25.aspx

We should pick up Connor Williams on a deal with a 3 year contract as our option next year. Let him heal and see where he is in October.

thats how it goes when you have a better than average roster! I couldnt believe Leno got paid too. There is a lot of bad football out there, and we used to be a big part of it.

yup. it's a deep plan and it keeps unfolding with permutations we (or at least I) couldnt see until we came up on them. Poles is a real pro.

for sure they do, yes, but that's not a high bar LOL

well no, you still have your safeties playing their shell, whatever it is. Im not talking about an 11 man blitz, but i am talking about flowing to one side or another, and shooting linebackers into gaps as a guess at the play. The downside of being wrong is a 10 yard play, and then it's just 1st and 10 on the 30 or whatever. The defensive playcalling is different when you have 65+ yards at your back to defend, just like it changes across mid field and again in the red zone when the field gets short. We just havent seen it much because our opponents usually start with better field position than that. Not anymore though, for several reasons. One is our offense, and another is out new punter

I think we have two options at center now in Bates and Shelton. The loser of that competition can compete at guard as well.

I agree we arent an attacking defense per se, although as the roster gets better, we may do that more. I dunno. But being able to guess on first down that its a run to the right for example, rather than playing it all honestly, gives you the chance to guess right, and put the opponent into a passing situation. You cant play those first down guesses as the opponent gets near to midfield where you have to defend everything. Basically, with 65+ yards at your back, you can afford to guess wrong on first down, and you can possibly guess right and get the ball back. That's what a good punter can do for you, even if youre not a blitz heavy team.

One thing about field position that I rarely if ever see discussed is that when the opposing team takes the ball on their own 20 (lets say) the defensive coordinator can afford to gamble on first down. If he guesses right, it puts them into a passing situation where the defense dictates tempo. And if they guess wrong, it's just first and 10 on the 30. By the time you get to midfield, the defense has to play more honestly, defending everything. So if a Punter gives you the field position to gamble on one or two more first downs, it dramatically increases the likelihood that youll get the ball back with good field position. In turn, you want to see Caleb getting the ball at the 40, and not backed up on his own 10. And of course if we can pin other teams inside their own 10 yard line, that gives the defense a real shot at quick stops, safeties, and turnovers. So a great punter can do more than just get you a few more yards in field position, it can allow your defense to get the ball back quickly, and give our offense good field position to start drives, where the opposing defense cant have the same advantage I just described.

and if Fields is not your starter, you can actually let him run with less fear of injury, and as an open field runner, Fields is GREAT, he just cant be allowed to do that AND be the starting QB. I might even experiment with Fields as a kick returner if Im Pittsburgh.