Here's what I'm trying to say:
Pace obviously knew he could have guaranteed that he could keep Meredith for one year for $2.9 Million, or receive a 2nd round pick. For some reason he didn't do that. Here are a few different options, and what they might mean. In all cases, Pace didn't "make a mistake"
The first fork in the logic tree is how good Pace thinks Meredith is. I'll split this up into two groups, the first is, he's a stopgap measure and the second is that Pace sees a future for him in Chicago.
ASSUMPTION #1, Pace thinks Meredith is a stopgap measure.
In this scenario, Pace is simply looking at free agents, and has determined that Meredith is a better option than any other Free Agent that's currently available. Under this scenario, Pace doesn't want a long term relationship with Meredith, so he puts some price on it in his head, and won't pay more. Since we KNOW that Meredith could be had for $2.9 Million or a 2nd rounder, under this assumption, Pace would have to think that he wasn't worth $2.9 Million to the Bears, and not worth any 2nd rounder to the team.
Therefore, Pace would not re-sign Meredith, and he'd go to the Saints. Pace would make the Saints wait for the full 5 days, and feel fine with it, because he had already determined that Meredith was a stopgap measure, and there will be another free agent who is in the same not-so-great category for a similar price.
OUTCOME: Pace did not make an error in not choosing the 2nd round tender, because he thinks Meredith isn't worth more than $2 Million a year, and his move was correct.
For what it's worth, this is not the scenario that I believe in. I'm just eliminating it mathematically, so we can focus on...
ASSUMPTION #2, Pace thinks Meredith has a future on the team
In this scenario, Pace wants to get a long term deal now. He thinks that 2018 might be a very prolific year for Bears WRs, and he believes in Meredith enough that he thinks he will be productive, and therefore more expensive to sign to a long term deal next year. Also, when you have a guy on a tag, they often feel unloved, like the team didn't offer enough to get a long term deal done, and they go to another team when free agency hits again the next year.
Under this assumption, Pace wants a long term deal, and Meredith's agent is asking for too much. When you tag a player, it allows other teams to do your negotiating for you (like in the Fuller situation) and the player & agent find out what they're really worth on the open market. At that point, you can match or pass. So tagging in general is a smart move to create a long term deal the player HAS to sign if you choose. It breaks the stalemate.
Now regarding WHICH tender offer to make, he has two reasonable choices; the $1.9 Million tender, or the $2.9 Million tender that receives a second round pick.
The $2.9 Million tender with 2nd round pick is problematic under the current assumption. It probably drives away offers, and if none is made, then you don't get the long term deal, you just get him for one year at at $2.9 Million, and lose him or pay more for him next year. It makes no sense under this scenario. If what you WANT is a team to make an offer so you can wrap him up at current value, then this is a bad move.
Some will say "OK, but then you'll get a 2nd round pick" and this is a different scenario where Pace thinks Meredith is worth less than a 2nd round pick who hasn't played a down in the NFL. In our current assumption, Pace thinks Meredith is worth keeping. The 2nd round pick is only valuable under the first assumption, that we don't think he's worth anything. And if that's the case, then Pace would be betting that some other team would give us a 2nd rounder for a player he doesnt think is any good, and if the DONT, then you gotta pay him $2.9 Million dollars, which is a lot for a player you don't believe in.
So asking for the 2nd round tender isn't really logical. You'd need to expect a 2nd rounder for a player you don't think is worth one, or you overpay. There is no scenario where you think Meredith is GOOD and has a real $5 Million a year type future, BUT you'd be glad to trade him for a second rounder. And if you don't get the second rounder, then you get him for one year and then lose him next year - remember we are under the long term deal assumption.
OUTCOME: Pace gets the best long term option he is going to see, and can make his choice. This was the right move.
So in any coherent scenario, you see how the logic tree dictate that this tag, and not the 2nd round tender, was the right move, no matter what Pace thinks of Meredith.
Now what's left is to see whether Pace thinks Meredith is worth the deal the Saints put together.
The 2 year aspect of it isn't so bad. You get more time to evaluate him, and sign him long term or find his replacement next year before you get there. The real question is whether Pace thinks he's worth the money. If he doesn't, then no harm in having done it this way. And if he thinks it's close or just a little too rich, he probably accepts it, and gets what he wanted - a longer deal at a price he can agree to.
If Pace was sure, I assume he would have signed quickly like he did with Fuller, to get the maximum goodwill with Meredith, especially since he'll be doing this again in 2 years.
I'm left guessing that either Pace will pass, or he's mulling it over because the money's a bit high for his liking and/or the deal is too short. Maybe he's looking over legalities about how to extend a 2 year tag deal. I dont think you can renegotiate them if you use this contract matching process, so you might not be able to extend it, you might have to wait until it's over and then tag again, or he becomes a UFA.
I have no idea what Pace will do, and I have no idea what Pace thinks of Meredith, but even without that info, I can see that Pace played this correctly, no matter the outcome.
The only scenario where he made the wrong tag choice is if Pace thinks another team really will fork over a 2nd rounder for a player Pace doesnt value highly, and if he makes that bet and loses, then it costs him overpaying a player he doesnt value, that he's letting walk after the year is over anyway. Seems like a bad bet. The 2nd rounder looks all sparkle-y but when you break it down, it's not really there.
