AZ54

I think this QB draft class is better than last years and compared to many recent years offers a decent pool to choose from. Minus of course the sure fire QB in an Andrew Luck type. Next year Sam Darnold looks to fill that elite draft spot but behind him I see lots of QBs with question marks no different than this year's group. #1 Goff: spread offense QB, not ready to start and while he can be very accurate he fades a lot under pressure. Plus physically he was pretty skinny. He basically lost his rookie year and the long term outlook is unknown. Trubisky is more accurate, better TD:INT ration (5:1 vs. 3.3:1), better QB rating, and much better on the run (both running and throwing). #2 Wentz: Physical tools but level of competition he played against didn't come close to comparison against any of the top 5 QBs this year. Played well initially then once teams learned the new Eagles offense things got tougher. I still like his long term outlook. #26 Lynch: Physical tools but again poor traits from spread offense and lower level of competition. Started to show some signs of getting it late in the year but remains a work in progress. #51 Hackenburg: I'd take any of the 2017 top 5 QBs ahead of him. (Here's where someone throws out Prescott but this is more about likely draft position of this year's QBs) Mix and match Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes, Webb, and Kizer among any of last year's top 4. I get all the questions regarding each of the QBs, and I have my criticisms and concerns for each as well. QB value in the NFL says 4 of them go in Rd 1. I also think much of the fretting over the concerns for each QB this year is related to the struggles of last year's QBs. 2015: I can go back to all the criticisms of Winston (INTs) and Mariota (spread offense and those QBs never work out in the NFL) and they both went 1/2. Behind them it was Grayson at #75. 2014: Blake Bortles #3 overall, Manziel #22, Bridgewater #32, Carr #36 (the best of the bunch), JimmyG #62 2013: EJ Manuel #16, Geno Smith #39, Mike Glennon #73 (we'll see how that turns out soon enough), Matt Barkley #98 2012: Luck #1, Griffin #2, Tannehill #8 (been a big long term project), Brandon Weeden #22, Osweiller #57

It makes his behavior at the medical tests that much more intriguing.

Not sure if you've been able to watch any of his games but LSU used Adams all over the field. He played NB, CB, SS, FS. His elite traits in the box led to him being used more often around the LOS but he's not Jabril Peppers and can definitely cover WRs or TEs. Is he the elite single high FS that Hooker can be? Probably not but Hooker is a rare talent too. Adams has more than enough skills (speed, agility) along with his study habits and leadership to get everyone else aligned pre-snap to be a very good FS. But at the same time he can fill a hole at the LOS scrimmage and stop a RB cold. Leonard Floyd's versatility gave Fangio flexibility around the LOS. Adams will do the same as a DB and we won't worry as much about matchups. 2 TE sets can be easily matched with Adams and Floyd out there either for run support or pass coverage.

I think I should correct myself because if it's a dream draft we don't trade up for Kizer, we just sit back and let him fall to us at #33. In that case Rd 1 #12 OT Ramczyk Rd 2 #33 QB Kizer #36 CB Kevin King #52 DE Wormley Rd 3 #67 WR Chris Godwin Rd 4 #111 TE George Kittle #117 CB Fabian Moreau (he's still there and we now have our CB duo of the future on the roster) Rd 5 #147 ILB Blair Brown (hat tip Jason) Rd 7 #221 FS David Jones

I'm with Stinger in that my dream draft has Cleveland giving us #12 and both of their 2nd Rd picks to move up and take Trubisky. 1st Rd #12 OT Ramczyk #24 QB Kizer trade #33 with OAK to get one spot ahead of Houston and take our QB. It's a risk but Pace wants two bites of the apple to increase the odds he can find his QB of the future. OAK gets #33 and both of our 4th Rd picks 2nd Rd #36 CB Kevin King (lots of DB options here including Awuzie, Baker) Backup option TE Evan Engram #52 DE Chris Wormley He's not flashy but as Pink Floyd said build the wall. Wormley is versatile enough to double gap and rush the passer but we also have likely better pash rushers being groomed in the wings in Bullard and RRH. 3rd Rd #67 WR Chris Godwin Best hands catcher at the combine, made it look easy. His 4.42 speed fits in well with White, Meredith, Wheaton, and Wright (if he's in shape). Alternate WRs Kupp or Zay Jones 5th Rd #147 TE Jordan Leggett Lazy Leggett sticks and he drops out of the 4th Rd to be snatched up here 7th Rd #221 FS David Jones tall and has the range to handle both sidelines, plus his INTs show he has nose for the ball

I didn't have time to expand upon this but between the top 2 safeties Hooker's potentially elite coverage skills and particularly hard to find. I love Adams but you can find safeties that are closer to his skills than you can find players with close to Hooker's skills. The flip side is that the vast majority of plays in the NFL are within 10 yards of the LOS and that's where Adams wins the day. Yet there is something very enticing about being able to negate Rodgers, or Stafford's deep throws after they scramble. Then when I think the single high safety makes it easier to put another man in the box at the snap, which yields much of the benefit Adams can provide, and it's very tempting to just take the type of player in Hooker that few teams in the NFL will ever have on their roster.

I'm 100% with you here. You can find an expert to put your player where ever you'd like to see him. Want Jamal Adams at #2 overall see Todd McShay. Want Fournette at #2 overall see guys like Casserly and Brandt. Solomon Thomas at #2 overall see CBS Sports. Yet it's like that all the way down through the first round and the disparity gets bigger the further you go into the top 32. Is WR Mike Williams the 13th best player in this draft or the 23rd? Is McCaffery a top 10 pick, top 20, or top 30? You can find the exact same for Dalvin Cook.

Malik Hooker.

If you want a late Rd OLB prospect who has the tools but needs work check out Derek Rivers: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=derek+rivers+high...iai=BrHbygjkVA8 There's a lot of hype you can read about him but I think he'll be there on Day 3.

I'd just put Engram at WR and leave him there. He's horrible at blocking but he puts a lot of stress on a secondary running routes. Anyone who wants to see the Bears replace Alshon Jeffrey only needs to see the first 30sec of this highlight video to know he'll be better.

That's a pretty impressive record, and some good research on your part.

He's been around the NFL draft for 57 years and has one heck of a draft database. "I can now look at my database and pull the confirmed short-shuttle or three-cone time of the 947th-ranked prospect instantaneously ... and in a matter of seconds have on my computer screen in front of me all the third-down-and-short run plays he was involved in at his Div. III school." http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000080...-2017-nfl-draft I saw a few rankings that stand out from some of the mainstream: #8 overall Trubisky If he's ranked that high on the Bears board we should just draft him. ------------------------------ One thing often overlooked about Trubisky is how well he played in 2015: "in 2015, he played well, completing 40 of 47 passes for 555 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions." I know there's a lot of talk about why, when he was a sophomore, he didn't beat out the senior on that roster but that's a pretty impressive performance in a part time role. More here: http://www.goheels.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=206278361 Came off the bench after Marquise Williams lost his helmet and completed passes against NC State and Clemson • The pass against the Wolfpack was a first-quarter touchdown, while the completion against the Tigers picked up a first down on third and long • Completed 5 of 5 pass attempts for 84 yards and scored his third rushing touchdown of the year in the win over Miami • Completed all five pass attempts for 43 yards and tallied his third rushing touchdown of the year in the win over Duke ----------------------------- Back to Gil Brandt's rankings: Watson is right behind Trubisky at #9 overall, Mahomes at #18. Ross is his top WR at #10 overall but I doubt that will hold up on draft day. He's got Williams way back at #23 and Davis near the end of the 1st Rd #31. Marlon Humphrey is #43. I like all the 2nd Rd Safeties but maybe not in his order: Marcus Williams, Josh Jones, Maye, Evans, and Baker. None are named Obi who sits back at #68 and the 3rd Rd seems appropriate for his production. I certainly hope Obi goes much earlier as it might leave a safety there for us in the 3rd Rd if we haven't already taken one. OT Antonio Garcia is way down the list at #130. There's talk that he'll go in the 2nd Rd.

I don't know enough to get deep into the draft as far as a nightmare draft but there are players I don't want in the rounds where they are likely to be taken. 1st Rd #3: TE Howard Far too many good options later in the draft. 1st Rd trade back: Jabril Peppers I know he's a great athlete, I still don't want to watch another safety who can't cover pass routes 2nd Rd: Obi Melifonwu S All the elite measureables without the elite production. The film doesn't lie and there is zero reason to take on a DB project at this point in the draft. Give me the Budda Baker type of football players. Tim Williams OLB: He's good when nobody blocks him beyond that there isn't much fight in his game. Might be one of the biggest fallers in this draft process as early on he was talked about as a top 20 player, now down to mid-2nd Rd Carl Lawson OLB: Sort of the opposite of Williams physically but he won't be very productive against NFL OTs. Not worth our 2nd Rd pick, or 3rd Rd pick.

This is my hope as well. Can Pace make Cleveland nervous enough to think their QB will be gone? We haven't done as much work on Trubisky as we have with Watson and Kizer, but we've done a ton of work on QBs. This is an excellent article detailing many of the concerns with the draft QBs. http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/04/12/2017-dr...-best-nfl-teams

I love all the good things you mention about Watson but we can't ignore the limitations he has throwing the football. In the right scheme he'll be ok. Pushing the ball down the field ain't his thing. There's subtle things that I've read where he isn't very accurate throwing to his left. NFL teams and players figure these things out and make you go where you don't want to go. I see him ending up better than a journeyman like Hoyer but never quite the guy you really want at QB, like Alex Smith. How early do you draft that type of QB? The two QBs the most likely (not guaranteed) to reach their potential IMO are Trubisky and Kizer, with Kizer less so. Mahomes is Jay Cutler with a smile. Webb is too inaccurate for me and Kaaya too nervous in the pocket. I think both end up career #2s who, on a good team, can win half the games when the starter is injured.

It seems rumors are now building that we're likely taking a DB at #3. That's an exceedingly easy rumor to throw out there given the talented options in Adams, Hooker, and Lattimore match very well with the Bears needs. Many draftniks in the media have had us taking Lattimore for the last couple weeks. I'd say Adams is 2nd most frequent selection but that's still close to number of folks who still have us drafting Jonathan Allen. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2703486...-draft-and-more Based on what I recall here's the history of the most popular players for our pick in order of most popular... January: Jabril Peppers/Allen February: Allen, Trubisky, Solomon Thomas starts showing up Mar: Jonathan Allen, Thomas, and Adams creeps into the picture Early Apr: Adams/Thomas/Allen Mid Apr: Lattimore/Adams/Allen/with a little Trubisky thrown in for good measure and by now Thomas is likely gone at #2 overall. The one constant that's in every recent draft is the QBs moving up late in the process. After seeing them all dissed as no better than 2nd Rd prospects we now hear that as many as 4 (Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes, Kizer/Webb) and possibly all 5 could be taken in the 1st Rd. Not one of them, except perhaps Trubisky, has a legit 1st Rd grade. Watson has legit 1st Rd intangibles pushing up his lack of physical arm talent.

I think Fisher was already done with the Rams the year before they left STL. They were working through the move to LA and the owner just wanted him around to help that transition. No new HC would want to walk into that fire storm the year before they were approved for the LA move. For his troubles Fisher was given a contract extension before the season and then allowed to ride off into the sunset with a couple extra years pay. Every time you saw Fisher on TV he looked like a man going through the motions of being a HC even early in the season.

Trubisky is also pretty good throwing while on the run both to his left and to his right 10-20yds downfield, sometimes further. That is the main reason I prefer him over the other top candidates since the other attributes are pretty close among them. I think he'll be the best among this group in the future when plays break down, plus his own scrambling ability is very good. Mahomes can throw on the move as well but his decisions when on the run scare me and in the NFL the players chasing him will be faster which will force him to speed up his decisions. Mahomes is not as athletic either so that combined with his bad habits forcing the ball when on the run usually ends badly.

I agree with that. Pace may feel he is best off throwing two darts at the bullseye. He might think equally well of Glennon and Trubisky and that each can become good NFL starters, but his confidence level might be 80% on either. If he is right on both accounts then he simply keeps the better of the two and the other can be traded to get some return. Consider this from Bradjock: "The problem is, while there is an over-abundance of round one talent, there is a void of top tier talent. Which means it sucks to have the #3 pick." --------------------------- That's seems to be a valid point for this draft. Then there are others who point out that the value in taking a safety so high just isn't there. Like it or not there are questions about Allen as an elite NFL talent that go beyond just his shoulders. Same can be said for Thomas, lattimore, or Hooker. If we were to plot draft grades we'd have a relatively flat line from the #3 pick on down maybe as far as into the early part of the 2nd Rd. If your draft grades are not that far apart from the 3rd position on your draft board down to the 2nd half of the first round then it seems filling your biggest need is the proper choice. If Trubisky is the 20th prospect on the Bears board and his grade is just slightly below Adams, and Pace thinks over the next year or two he'll develop into a legit NFL starter, then the value of the QB position says you take him at #3. ---------------------------- On the heels of the Bears/Trubisky rumors come the Browns stating they might take him #1 overall. Who is playing who? Do the Browns want Chicago to trade up to #1? Or does Chicago want Cleveland to trade up from #12 to #3 to take their QB? If Pace takes both of Cleveland's 2nd Rd picks and #12 overall I'd be very happy. What would you do with #12 overall, three 2nd Rd picks, and the early 3rd Rd pick? Ramczyk OT, Awuzie CB, Baker S/NB, Shaheen TE, Cupp/Zay Jones WR, and followup with QB Peterman in the 4th Rd.

Garrett at #3 would be a dream come true.

In any case the Bears QB draft rumors are starting to heat up... http://www.walterfootball.com/nflrumors/teamdraft

NFL Network Charlie Casserly says he's hearing quite a bit about the Bears liking Trubisky. This is the start of the disinformation period before the draft but it's also about the time last year when we first started hearing the Bears liked Leonard Floyd. I thought all that was smoke.

That gives me plans for one weekend in August.

I don't view Floyd as able to help us on the field at all.

He was pretty bad here in AZ and didn't do enough in NE to make it worth their time on another contract. We don't need his bad character in our young locker room.