tshanno

A lot of bettors are going to be pounding the under on that line. And it’s a mistake. I’ve always felt that teams with new head coaches sometimes tend to overachieve. The players have no history with them and are not comfortable that they’re going to retain their jobs. Everyone concentrates just a little bit more. The whole team benefits. I think 6 1/2 sounds about right.

I think Poles may have known that he was going to draw criticism for the Jones pick. The reason I say that is because he went out of his way in one of his press conferences to say that other GM’s had told him that he had taken their guy. GM’s usually don’t usually make comments like that in press conferences. So he must have been feeling defensive or at least a little insecure about the pic. As far as competing with 19-year-old kids is concerned, I understand the point. But you could make that same point about every fifth year senior that enters the draft. And although it’s valid, I think it’s just one factor to bear in mind not something that you rule a prospect out over. I don’t discount it. But it doesn’t worry me a whole lot, either.

Yeah, a few things about Jones. 1. I also see the point but there are definite advantages to Jones' age, I think. If you watch the video of Jones' press conference the other day and compare it to, say, Trestan Ebner's, I think you can really see the effect that the extra couple of years can have on a player. Jones was patient, thoughtful, didn't let any of the questions throw him. He was unhurried in his answers and had far less tendency to sort of ramble when a question took him by surprise. That's not a knock on Ebner. In a couple years, especially as a pro, he might look exactly the same. But if Jones plays like he talks, he could make a lot more progress a lot more quickly. 2. I was really wary when the Bears drafted Jones. When I hear the words "gadget" and "versatile" and "utility knife", my antennae go up. In my experience, players like that can be long on media hype and short on production. Tarik Cohen was an exception but otherwise, a lot of the time those words mean "mediocre at a lot of things but very good at none". I really , really hope that the coaching staff is smart enough to let this guy get good at one thing, say playing in the slot, then expand his role gradually from there. 3. I was listening to Dane Brugler cover the draft live as part of The Athletic Football Podcast and his immediate reaction was to acidly comment, "I guess they needed a kick returner". That encapsulates my fears in a nutshell. What give me hope that Jones might be different is reflected in the attached PFF grades on him as a prospect. Jones has a lot of below average grades and I'm sure he needs work on a lot of things. But look at that separation percentage, especially in single coverage. That's the 99th percentile, guys. And the YAC is 91st percentile. That's why the Bears drafted him. I've no idea how that's going to translate to the pro game but the result could be really exciting. Or it could be really disappointing. But either way its going to be interesting.

My guess is that Pace didn't like this signing draft picks as soon as possible stuff. I would guess that he (like most of the NFL) thought it best to wait in case something happened to the prospect before camp. Stein is a former agent and he most likely likes getting them signed so thay don't have to worry about it and can just go to work. Assuming that's right, personally I'm with Stein.

One thing is clear. They are definitely relying more than usual on the coaches to develop talent if they expect to be even a mediocre team this year. You’re right in that this is something that the Colts seemed to specialize in. It always looked to me like they were one of the best in the league and getting the most out of the least amount of apparent talent. I think the last staff thought they were good at developing talent too. And when Fangio was here they actually were pretty good at developing it on defense. But in the end it was one of the many things that led to their downfall. Here’s hoping the current staff does a better job of living up to the reputation. If they don’t it’s going to be a miserable year.

It's kind of funny but I don't get the impression that Lance is a classic "gunslinger" per se. He had 14 TDs and 0 INTs in 2019. I get the impression that the guys who don't like him just think it all came too easily and that its hard to tell how it will all translate to the NFL. With almost all of these guys its really just about what's in their heads. I guess with him it's harder to tell than most.

Well, I can't say I entirely disagree with you. Its seems that he has all of the tools. But how likely is it that Pace will draft a 17 game starter after drafting Trubisky? Most of the more negative reports I've read point to the fact that he was surrounded by superior personnel and he rarely had to get to his second read. On the other hand, he does seem to have some down field accuracy. If you want an over the top positive that explains why he's on this list, try this report from Daniel Jeremiah: "He reminds me of: Andrew Luck. I know Luck is a little bit bigger, but they are similar athletes and they both played with a maturity beyond their age at the collegiate level. I remember watching Luck run over defenders. I also remember being so impressed with his ability to execute on key plays in every game. I see the same things when I study Lance." He'll be interesting to watch. Whoever takes him will be taking a huge risk. He's gong to need development and who knows how far he's capable can getting? Tom S.

I love, love love Wade Phillips. There was a stretch of a half a dozen years or so where I thought he was the best DC in the NFL. But the fact that he will be 74 when the season starts gives me pause. How do you put in coach’s hours at that age?There’s probably a reason the Rams let him go last year... Tom S.

This is just a guess but I'd say they've done more than tweek it. I think they've crippled it. NFL offenses are a game of chess. You do one thing, the defense takes it away. You do something else, they take that away, etc... Eventually you settle at a point where both teams think that there's a competitive match up, or as close to it as they're going to get. I think Nagy likes the KC offense because it has an answer for everything. But in order for you to have an answer for everything, you have to have the personnel. Especially the QB. They've had to put Trubisky on the run, cut the field in half and limit his decisions so much that I don't know how much of that offense is left. What's worse, my fear is that Trubisky is so limited that by the time the offense and the opposingNFL defenses settle in place with their adjustments, the Bears won't have a chance. If the Packers can make the Bears throw, keep Trubisky in the pocket and just "make Mitch play quarterback", they probably win. As will any other decent defense. That's just a guess, though. I guess we're going to eventually find out. Tom S.

What worries me is that Hicks has been around for some lousy defensive performances since that game They've given up somebig chunk plays in the running game. I'm worried. Vildor looks like a rookie a lot more than Johnson. He looks lost. Johnson is also probably better in man coverage. What worries me about Shelly is that he's about 3 feet tall. He's a terrible match up for some of those tall WRs that the Packers have. Tom S.

This is the reason why the Miami Dolphins tanking makes no sense. If you are a good, smart organization, you don't need the number oneoverall pick to find a good QB. If you aren't, having the pick won't help you anyway. Its all about taking advantage of opportunities and picking the right players. Tom S.

http://bearingthenews.com/?p=1565 Does Mike Martz Have Too Much Power? If So He’s Not Alone. The world is full of compromise. And no one apparently hates it any more than Timothy Miller of Endwell, N.Y. Tim is apparently convinced that offensive coordinator Mike Martz is ruining the Bears franchise. How else do you explain the fact that he emailed not one, but two NFL writers asking if Martz has cast a spell over the team that will lead to its ultimate demise. First, let’s see shat ESPN‘s NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert has to say (http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/27117/nfc-north-weekend-mailbag-41): “Tim of Endwell, New York, writes: Do you think the Chicago Bears are giving Mike Martz too much power? With his influence on demanding a veteran quarterback last year, (Todd Collins) the miss-handling of playing time with Devin Aromashodu, and drafting quarterbacks in back to back years. With Martz’s track record with previous teams, it seems like he has a lot of influence even though he might not be here for too long.” “Kevin Seifert: “I tend to look at it from another perspective. Martz’s skill as an offensive mind and quarterback teacher has never really been questioned. His downfalls in St. Louis, Detroit and San Francisco can be attributed more to personality clashes and philosophical differences. If you hire a coach like Martz and plan for him to be with you for more than a year, it’s best to treat him like an asset and hope he can leave a lasting impact on your franchise in a way many other coordinators could not. This discussion would be more difficult if the Bears were using first and/or second-round draft picks to appease Martz. [Dan] LeFevour was drafted in the sixth round and [Nathan] Enderle in the fifth. I’m fine with the Bears using a late-round pick on the chance that Martz could accelerate development for a player at the most important position in the game. Even if [Jay] Cutler‘s presence means that Enderle will never start for the Bears, it’s not unheard of for NFL teams to develop and trade backup quarterbacks for draft picks far exceeding the value of where they were selected.” Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune also answers Tim’s question (http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/chi-bears-askdan-0524,0,7373664.story): “A team has to put a lot of faith in the person who is running the offense. The alternative is saddling that person with players he doesn’t believe in. You want the offensive coordinator to have ownership in the final product. How can the offensive coordinator buy in if management isn’t buying in to him? It’s especially important with a veteran coach who has had considerable success as Martz has. The Bears can’t concern themselves with how long Martz will or won’t be here. The future isn’t promised with any coach.” Both explanations are true but in general terms I think Pompei gets closer to the heart of it. The life of general manager Jerry Angelo isn’t an easy one. The problem with Martz is no different than the problem with head coach Lovie Smith, defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli, and to a lesser extent the rest of the coaches. Angelo has the unenviable job of trying to please all of them because he knows full well that you can’t ask a coach to work with a guy he doesn’t believe in. Not if you want to get optimal results. Most fans would really like to see the personnel people have the strongest say about who is drafted. Perhaps they do. But there’s always going to be a question of who wanted which players because Angelo is constantly compromising. In the end, Angelo’s fate relies not just on the ability of these men to coach but on their ability to evaluate talent and extrapolate what they see to what will happen on a professional football field. The bottom line is that Martz does have too much power. So does Smith and so do the rest of the coaches. But that’s the way of the world if you want it to be peaceful and well-run.

Something tells me there are two sides to this one. I'm not saying its impossible but things like this are rarely a straight forward case of, "F' you I"m not payin'". I wonder if people ran out and he got stuck with the bill or something. Tom S.

Points are well taken in that all of this really is of questionable value. A lot depends getting guys to do things properly and a lot of self-coaching though veteran leadership, I'm sure. And the Bears strongest non-free agent leaders are on defense. But having said that, almost every team has missed a mini-camp and a rookie-camp by now. So it isn't like these players wouldn't have been working together on the field by now in a normal year. Tom S.

Bears Defense Needs to Attend Workouts – For the Good of the Offense Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times recently interviewed Bears quarterback Jay Cutler and asked him about the workouts they were planning (http://www.suntimes.com/sports/football/bears/5398418-419/jay-cutler-bears-offense-needs-to-get-together-despite-lockout.html). To the surprise of many, only the offensive players were planning to workout together: “Cutler said the workouts would be for offensive players only. “’I mean, those defenders have been in the system for eight years, nine years,’ Cutler said. ‘What are they gonna do? “’What am I going to tell Lach?’ Cutler said, referring to linebacker Brian Urlacher. ‘‘Your drop is a little short. Sorry, buddy.’ Offensively, we have a lot of room to improve.’” The offense actually started last Wednesday without the defense and Cutler’s reasons for not pushing them to be there above are true enough. But what the veteran defensive players either don’t understand or, worse, don’t seem to care about, is that even though they personally don’t need the workouts, the team needs them to be there. I love Brian Urlacher but like many if not most great athletes he’s a little emotionally stunted. Sometimes you can tell that there’s a lack of maturity there that makes him self-centered, not on the field, but in other little ways off it. This is one example of it and I’m sure many of his teammates are no better. Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune sits down with the paper’s NFL expert, former safety Matt Bowen where Bowen elaborates on this issue (http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-0522-biggs-bowen-qanda-bears-c20110520,0,2193377.story): “It’s easy to go out there and run routes with your teammates when you’re not held accountable by working against a defensive back and having a coach look over your shoulder. It’s just not the same.” “Working against a defense [is what's missing from the workouts]. Running routes is just like doing warmups before a game when you come out of the locker room. There are some benefits to that. You can work on your timing. Let’s say the depth of the route is 10 yards, you can really fine-tune that. Work on getting your head back. Jay (Cutler) can work on getting to that fifth step, planting the foot and throwing the ball. But without the competition aspect, without having the DB drive underneath that route and make a play on it, without having that DB working against receivers so they can create separation and get down the field, it’s not football.” Bottom line your offense can’t get better without a defense there to play against. Admittedly you might question just how much of a “competition aspect” there would be without coaches present and without the risk of even accidental contact. And I understand that the offseason is a precious time for these guys and I’m sure the defensive players are enjoying the time off. But the Packers, the Lions and the Vikings are getting better and the Bears aren’t going to keep up by sitting stagnant and saying, “We’re veterans. We don’t need to work.” Urlacher needs to get the defense out on the field to workout with the offense.

Don't hold your breath. He's not that guy. I think the real question will be if he shows up to workouts if someone else organizes them. I think the odds are good that he will do that if he's in Chicago. Tom S.

http://bearingthenews.com/?p=1446 Jerry Angelo Needs to Be the “Manager” The Peter Principle states that “in a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence”, meaning that employees tend to be promoted until they reach a position at which they cannot work competently. The problem with climbing up the latter at any place of employment is that they promote you for doing a well at what you do to fill a position where you are called upon to do something totally different. For instance, I was promoted to professor in a science department at an academic institution because I could do experiments at the bench. Guess how many experiments I’ve done in the past five years? What I do all day now is sit at a desk and write when I’m not in committee meetings. The people who work for me do all the real work that I used to do. That’s the way of the world. I doubt very much that the world of professional football is very different. You go from scout to general manager and your duties differ considerably from what you did before. You either adapt or you fail. Sometimes I wonder about Bears general manager Jerry Angelo‘s transition into his role. Michael C. Wright says that Angelo was extremely embarrassed by the Bears-Ravens trade debacle. He should be: [embedded video] Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune relays the account of what happened (http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-0430-ravens-bears-chicago-nfl-20110429,0,7413272.story): “[The Ravens] say the trade was finalized with three minutes remaining on their clock. The Bears never reported the trade to the league. “Angelo said he told staff members to phone in the deal with a little more than two minutes remaining on the clock. But two staff members each thought the other was making the call so it never was made. Newsome was exasperated as he spoke with the NFL and the Bears while the final two minutes expired.” I know I seem to be the only fan in Chicago who is really bothered by this in the afterglow of what most consider a successful Bears draft. Certainly the tendency of Bear fans is to defend the team. Jason Cole at Yahoo Sports understands that as well (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=jc-cole_rules_change_needed_after_bear_ravens_snafu_050511). But he also understands that Bears fans might be letting their bias cloud their view of the situation. “The most popular point Chicago fans have made is that Baltimore GM Ozzie Newsome is believed to have done the same thing in 2003 to the Minnesota Vikings. “The problem that Bears fans don’t understand is that there’s a unique difference between the two situations. “In 2003, Newsome at least tried to call the league to confirm the trade.” But maybe what was most interesting in Cole's article were the quotes from an unnamed NFC executive on the matter: “I would hope nobody would ever do that intentionally to screw somebody over, but even accidentally is really bad You’re talking about people’s jobs being on the line. That embarrasses everybody involved. Ozzie [Newsom] is lucky that [baltimore owner Steve] Bisciotti trusts him so much. For a lot of other guys, your owner might look at you like an idiot even if the other team made the mistake.” “I like Jerry, but what he said is BS. If you gave me your word and didn’t even call the league or didn’t call me back in time to fix the situation, that’s wrong. Dead wrong. You should pay some penalty. I don’t know what it is, but something. I think Baltimore should have gotten the pick. “Again, this is a high-pressure situation. You can’t just say, ‘Oh, no harm, no foul.’ That could be my job on the line.” If there’s a question of whether Baltimore general manager Ozzie Newson’s job might have been on the line, how much more is it true of Angelo’s? I’m not going to claim to be the best manager of people. But I can definitively say one thing. The single best way to virtually guarantee that something doesn’t get done is to tell two people to do a one person job. If you do its almost 100% that they’ll conveniently assume the other person is acting on it it. And if it doesn’t get done, then, hey, you both share the blame. Besides, if two people make the same mistake, how bad could it have been? Anyone who manages people for a living will tell you that always ask one person by name to do a job and make them personally responsible. And there’s the rub. Angelo’s a good scout. But is he a good manager? Isn’t that his title? There is more to being a general manager than scouting. In fact, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Angelo’s role in the process at the ground level is relatively superficial. And if last week’s snafu was any example, he needs to pick up his game in the area that his job really centers on.

You may be over-drafting Franklin. Last I heard there was a good chance he'd be there for the Bears at the end of the second and maybe at the end of the third. Admittedly the opinions seem to vary quite a bit. Tom S.

http://bearingthenews.com/?p=1427 Moving Williams to Center a Risky Business Neil Hayes at the Chicago Sun-Times says that there have been discussions at Halas Hall about moving offensive tackle/guard Chris Williams to center (http://www.suntimes.com/sports/football/bears/5040308-417/bigger-is-better-as-bears-look-to-add-to-offensive-line.html). Its an interesting idea but I really question whether it will work. As we consider this possibility, its worth noting the comments that Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano made about moving guards to the center position last month (http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_football_dolphins/2011/03/upgrading-center-spot-is-a-dolphins-priority.html): “It legitimately is the hardest position up front to play. People are going to tell you left tackle because of who they are going against, but if you draft the right left tackle, which we’ve been fortunate to do, that really isn’t the case. If you’re trying to put a squad peg into a round hole then that makes left tackle a hard position. Not many of us try to do that. “With center, everyone has this guard and can make him a center, or you can take this undersized (guy) and make him a center. That really isn’t the case. It doesn’t work in a lot of situations. “You have to have some kind of center background in their history, in their past, for that to work well.” “From a mental standpoint it’s challenging. Practice is one thing. In the game it’s a completely different, much like the quarterback. When it starts to hit the fan out there at that position things speed up and you need it to slow down.” I’m not saying that the Bears shouldn’t try Williams at center. But I’m very wary of the idea. Williams didn’t make the transition to guard very well and the move to center would be tougher. He really needs to be settled into a position and allowed to develop. This kind of change would set his timetable back even further. Williams may never reach his potential as the Bears shuffle him from position to position. Its a big risk.

http://bearingthenews.com/?p=1400 Drafting for a Better Future Instead of an Ugly Present Benjamin Franklin once wrote, “All human situations have their inconveniences. We feel those of the present but neither see nor feel those of the future; and hence we often make troublesome changes without amendment, and frequently for the worse.” It is with that in mind that I note Dan Pompei‘s review of the outside linebackers in this year’s NFL draft for the Chicago Tribune (http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-0419-nfl-draft-outside-linebac20110418,0,4899973.story). Here’s what he says about the Bears need there: “Only one outside linebacker, Lance Briggs, is under contract for next season. It is likely the Bears will bring back others with expiring contracts, but for now they can’t be certain. As a result, it seems certain the Bears will look to add depth at the position in the draft.” I’ve got a suspicion the Bears might be looking to add more than just special teams depth here. Briggs will be on the wrong side of 30 in November and middle linebacker Brian Urlacher will be 34 in May. A few days ago, Pompei wrote a nice column about how good teams don’t draft to fill immediate needs (http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-0417-pompei-bears-chicago--20110416,0,5218497.column). They draft for the future: “Too many NFL general managers look at their draft needs through reading glasses, studying just what’s in front of their noses. What they really need are binoculars so they can see what’s coming in the distance. “It’s a trap to examine the Bears’ roster and determine they must select an offensive tackle and a defensive tackle with their first two picks in the NFL draft because that’s where their most glaring holes are. “A better plan, depending on how the draft falls, might be to ignore those positions for the time being.” Pompei goes on to suggest that holes are better filled in free agency. I could not agree more with this sentiment. The linebackers are a strength of this team but age is going to eventually catch up to them if the Bears aren’t careful. They left those linebackers with expiring contracts go to free agency because they recognize that. They’ve tendered Nick Roach under 2010 rules as insurance but by leaving Pisa Tinoisamoa off the roster, they’ve left themselves open to draft another young starter if he falls to them. That could be Akeem Ayers, who the Pompei has rated as the second best after Von Miller (who will almost certainly go in the top five picks). Yes, the Bears have needs at the line of scrimmage. No doubt about it. And yes, fans are going to be upset if they don’t draft some players to fill those gaps. But free agency awaits and drafting for the future is still what its all about. If GM Jerry Angelo does it right, he’ll take the best players left on the board in this draft. And the best guy to take could easily be a linebacker in the early rounds. That’s because, as Franklin said so well, seeing the future is the key to avoiding present changes for the worse.

Spot on, guys. I think the need at defensive tackle is obvious. Julius Peppers needs more help and as you pointed out, it has to come inside. They may well go that direction in the first round and if they do its fine by me. Tom S.

http://bearingthenews.com/?p=1367 Trend Towards Interior Linemen May Characterize Draft by Tom Shannon I’ve long held that offensive guard is becoming a more important position in the National Football League than in years past. Bear fans need only look at their own division for one of the best example of why this is. The Minnesota Vikings spent what was at the time a fortune for a guard on Steve Hutchinson in 2006. Ever since we have watched Hutchinson serve as the key piece of what was up to last year an excellent to good offensive line. Dan Pompei writing for the National Football Post, explains why interior offensive linemen and defensive tackles have recently become almost as important as offensive tackles and defensive ends in the NFL game (http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-4613.html): “What’s changed? Offenses. “Because protecting the quarterback is more difficult than ever, and arguably more important with the way teams are emphasizing the pass, we’re seeing fewer and fewer deep drops. It’s all short drops and quick throws. That minimizes edge rushers. And it also makes the offensive tackles less important. “Defensive tackles like Nick Fairley could end up being rewarded on draft day. “However, interior pass rushers have become more important. If a defensive tackle can penetrate, either through power or quickness, he can force a quarterback to adjust even on a well executed short drop that’s intended to yield a quick pass.” “And the best way to stop a defensive tackle like [Ndamukong] Suh or Sedrick Ellis is with a premier interior blocker like Logan Mankins or Jahri Evans.” I think Pompei has a great point and I wonder how many draft “experts” have picked up on the trend. I look at Todd McShay‘s mock draft at ESPN (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/news/story?page=McShayMock5.0) and I see a huge run on linemen in the first round from 8 to 32 and almost all of the players taken are offensive tackles and defensive ends. Certainly those positions are still important but will all of those teams, many of whom need an upgrade inside, take a second rate prospect at those outside positions over a first rate interior lineman? I have my doubts. Certainly the Bears have always placed a premium on the defensive tackle position in part because of the scheme they run. But most mock drafts continue to predict that they and other teams like them in the second half of the first round will go with a risky offensive tackle “project” with “potential” figuring they can pick up a guard and/or center later. I don’t think this is a good way of approaching the draft anymore. Admittedly offensive coordinator Mike Martz bucks the offensive trend that Pompei describes in that his ideal scheme includes more deep routes and plenty of seven step drops. Martz absolutely has to have good tackles for that. But I’m not so sure the Bears are going to find an upgrade at left tackle late in round one. On the other hand, as Pompei implies here, Danny Watkins at guard might make the line decidedly better in another important way. I wouldn’t be surprised if other teams aren’t thinking the same way and you start to wonder if those who “reach” for interior offensive linemen will actually be reaching at all. In any case just how much the game has changed and in what way will be indicated by the choices teams make in the second half of round one and early in round two. Don’t be surprised if the trend is different from what people expect.

http://bearingthenews.com/?p=1131 Daring the NFL to Disappear Here’s a heaping load of truth brought to you courtesy of Dan McNeil, writing for the Chicago Tribune: “You don’t need the NFL. You only think you do.” “I’m daring the NFL to disappear.” So am I. I’m old enough to have been around for the last NFL labor stoppage. You know what happened? I found other things to do on Sunday afternoon. So did millions of others. And that’s what will happen if NFL games are lost due to a lockout. As much as I enjoy the NFL, I’m not too worried about missing it. In fact, I’m very ambivalent and I find myself growing more so every day as I consider the big picture. Don’t get me wrong. I’ll still be blogging and I’ll be waiting. But I’m going to guess that many casual fans are going to find that life without professional football isn’t a big deal. If that doesn’t scare the NFL, both players and owners, it should.

Honestly, I'd like to see what this staff could do given another year together. I liked some of the things Marinelli did last year. H'ell never be Dom Capers but at least he had them disguising coverages and generally doing something more than lining up and saying, "Here we are. Run your best cover 2 beater." They're going to have to play more effective man-to-man every once in a while to compete with the big boys but at least they're trying. Tom S.

Thanks, Jason. Tom S.