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Everything posted by DABEARSDABOMB
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Having top pick 2 years in a row shouldn't be a consideration. The real question is - we have a top 2 pick and can't punt on if we think we have a need for QB. If we need a QB because we don't think our QB is a difference maker and one is available - than it is a no brainer. Point blank that is really the only question / consideration at end. I will also go on record that the concept of - just draft one of the other QB's in a later round - is just a rubbish strategy. Oh I'll just get one in the 2nd round. Now that strategy might work - but it really can't be considered a strategy, its more getting lucky that every other team missed their eval and you were right. The reality is - going back the last 20 years - this is who has differentiated as a QB outside of the 1st round (obviously the GOAT is on that list). Other than that since 2000 - I think I have pretty much everyone covered...so 23 years and the below is about all there is. The inverse means - a heck of a lot of the better QBs were drafted in the 1st (by the way - plenty busted too). So point blank - the question has to be - do you think Fields is the guy. If the answer is yes - than you aren't drafting a QB at 1. If the answer is No (or you have material question(s), than you have to look at this class. If when you assess this class - there is a guy in this class that differentiates himself and you think is special - than you select him at 1. You don't get cute - you draft him at 1. If your answer is no - than by all means, stick with Fields and take a flyer on a later round pick (but do so knowing that is purely a developmental play not a strategy for finding your QB). Below is my list of what I believe to be difference makers taken after 1st round. Initial focus was on 3rd round and later and than I segregated 2nd round slightly different (because in some cases I think some added context is relevant around why they went in the 2nd - such as Brees was 2nd rounder, but also 2nd QB to go off the board (behind Vick); Hurts was 2nd rounder - but he followed an extremely deep class of 1st rounders). 3rd Round and Lower: Russel Wilson Brock Purdy Tom Brady 2nd Round: Drew Brees (2nd QB taken though behind Vick) Jalen Hurts (5th QB taken in a ridiculously strong QB class - Burrow / Tua / Herbert / Love went before him) Almost List: Derek Carr (2nd Rounder) - Doesn't deserve to be on the list above. Kurt Cousins (4th Rounder) - Again - I don't think he belongs on the list with the guys above (to be frank Brock Purdy may eventually fall of the list too - but thus far he warrants being included). Note: I do think a good strategy is to contiously draft QB's in the later rounds - but not as a strategy to solve your existing QB problem - do it to create depth and competition and create enough odds where you might find your NEXT QB by doing that (I kind of think of it more in terms of future proofing your LT viability).
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Rodgers is going to be playing - so I don’t know that it would happen that way but would be great for Pats and Cardinals to each get another win.
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If we take a qb - I’m not pretending I can outthink everyone, I am restarting the coaching clock and I am taking Caleb Williams. Don’t get cute. Sure he could bust but he has elite arm talent, good athleticism and has played 2.5 years of high end football and put up unworldly numbers. He can make all the throws and ad libs and didn’t have the type of talent these sec juggernauts have had. Now Panthers better not ruin it. I could tell you I like JJ McCarthy too - but damn it I’m just taking Caleb at one, draft an olineman at the other pick (or Brockers) and drop a bucket on Tee Higgins. I’m setting up my next qb to be a legit badass. Find a center later and than draft defense and a later round wideout.
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And I should be clear - at this point - I’ll let another team try it, cause I have a top pick and can take a chance and see if someone else can, cause our guy can’t. I wish he could and I truly hope he figures it out.
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In fairness Getsys offense doesn’t maximize and scheme him to leverage that strength. I go back to - Fields would be at his best - running 10 times a game - designed runs, read option, etc and have him throw 20-25, and have your backs rushing it another 20-25 times. Lots of motion - physical play - stretch field and almost all play action when you do throw it (big play passes to keep spacing) and just basically be a physical Ravens like attack. Play field position and have strong defense. Protect football.
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If he made a decent block earlier we aren’t even talking about it. Mooney just hasn’t been the same this year. Part of that is Fields just seems off hitting him - part of that is he probably has been impacted by not having a healthy offseason. Or worse the injury he suffered last season took away his special trait his elite quickness and now he just isn’t the same guy.
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I would imagine Poles answer is 95 percent take the qb. Only way he doesn’t is if they all opt back into college to bypass the Bears or he really doesn’t like what he sees.
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That is exactly it. He is an ok qb and maybe he can become good - but I have a shot at a great and cost controlled and don’t have to give up something to get it. It is a no brainer at this point. Could be this loss - which right now hurts bad - saves the Bears from making a big mistake
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As long as Bears have top 2 pick - they need to take the qb. No way I can give Fields 5th year option and lock next 3 years on him…not if they have a top 2 pick.
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I presume those GM's were careful what they said. I also think when you look at past trades, whether the Wentz deal and/or the Sam Darnold deal - you can see teams will ultimately overpay for the QB. Basically put - you just need 1-2 teams to have a view and they ultimately have a need. Reality is - there are going to be a # of teams who aren't going to be picking early enough who are going to have a need at QB and for them it will be worth taking a chance on Fields. Steelers - Falcons - Seahawks (depending on their love of Geno) - Patriots (if they aren't in the top 3) - Raiders. All of those teams are likely not going to be in a spot (without moving up to get a QB).
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I think the points they made were all valid though. I really think if you still have questions about Fields - you really can't take that risk at this point, when you have coming out of college an equally good prospect as Fields was and you are starting the clock over and surrounding said young player with a far better situation. I'll say the inverse - if Caleb Williams was the current Bears starter and he had produced like he had for the 1st 3 years - with the same questions, and Justin Fields was now the #1 pick in this draft class (or Trevor Lawrence) and the roles were reversed and Bears were sitting there - I would say, go get Fields because we haven't seen enough in 3 years out of Williams. Now part of this is circumstance - Bears actually are sitting in a spot where they can get one of these guys without mortgaging ANYTHING and at a time when there own guy has upside, but still a lot of question(s) and you can still trade them (in my mind - I think if Fields finishes solid - you are talking about getting a 2nd this year and I'd love to see like a conditional 2nd the following year). Bears than would get back the 2nd round pick they lost - plus have #1 for QB and another top 10 (or close to top 10) pick to add an OT or a Wideout.
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That was fun - 2 great games and great outcomes.
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Week 14 Official Game Thread - DET @ CHI, SUN, 12/10, Noon, CHI +3, O/U 42
DABEARSDABOMB replied to adam's topic in Bearstalk
Funny story - my 8 year old was calling run plays all game vs Lions. No joke he was right 90 percent of the time on run vs pass when it came to Bears. I’m fine supporting Flus, but Getsy is nothing special. With exception I like the screen game and run game he manages - but overall leaves a lot to be desired. -
So I never liked how the Bears passed on Pickens - but understood why at the time given some of the character flags surrounding Pickens. Pickens went on to crush it in year 1 - but looking at year 2 - Pickens has been a complete distraction. Don't get me wrong - his production has been STRONG, but so much other stuff popping up. On flipside - Gordon and Brisker (in particular focusing on Brisker since Pickens went a few picks after him) are trending upwards. Gordon had slow start due to injury this year - but he's trending in right direction and is a physical force at nickel. Brisker - well at this point, I think he's on a trajectory of being an all pro. The only major question I have with him is can he stay healthy. The dude is a freaking stud who can change the game - but man does he throw his body around and I worry about the sustainability - but he seems like a great fit in lockeroom and a multiplier on the field. Maybe Poles knows a thing or to. Similarly - I know they passed on Carter - but Wright looks great and Sweat coming in over Young again looked like the right move.
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I watched the game and my view of the game was even more convinced to move away from Fields. I just don't think he plays within the confines of the offense. With that said - he is physically the most dynamic QB in the league. Him and Josh Allen to me are the two most physically superior QB's in the NFL. So I get if the Bears just want to bet on the physical and leadership qualities that Justin has and figure the rest of the game will come to him. To be honest - the Bears having the #1 pick is what makes this hard. If the Bears didn't have the 2 picks or were picking at 8 and 14 - I would be pretty square in the camp of stick with Flus & Fields and just keep adding talent. But when you have the #1 overall pick - you have to ask - do I go QB. And if I go QB - than I probably need to change HC so I align the HC and QB's clock (doing otherwise is a mistake). In reality - I think the Bears are in a win-win situation as long as they draft well. Scenario 1: Keep Fields - Trade #1 for Top 10 #1 in '24, Next Year #1, '24 2nd Rounder, '25 2nd Rounder, & 1 Blue Chip Player (or a '26 1st rounder). In this scenario - continue to build a very good football team around the QB. Just watching that Eagles / Cowboys game - Dak and Hurts are good (and how good is a debate we can have) - but they have a TON of talent around them. Both have strong olines and historically good rushing attacks - they also have deep wide receiving corps (their WR room is 3X the Bears room - which at this point is basically Moore and everyone else). Cowboys have Cedee, Gallup, Cooks plus a strong TE. Eagles have good TE play, AJ Brown, Devontae Smith, etc. Both teams have good defenses too. 1st Round: You draft a blue chip wide out (potentially you are talking about MHJ still depending on how much you move back) and draft an olinemen (or double down on weapons). Or you draft a 3 Tech and an Olinemen and draft a wideout in Rd2 and spend money on Tee Higgins and the Vikings Dlinemen. Or the blue chipper you get on the Line is a Max Crosby via a trade with the Raiders. Free Agency: Resign JJ & Sign a couple impact players - think Tee Higgins, Vikings Dlinemen, FA center Rest of the Draft: Best available - continue to build depth - try to identify a young center prospect and a safety to replace Jackson. Scenario 2: Draft QB @ #1 overall - Pick Playmaker or Oline with other Bears pick. Trade Fields to Raiders, Seahawks, Falcons or anyone else and ideally get 2 2nd Rounders. Hire new coaching staff. In this scenario - you still have the goal of building best football team, but now you reset the QB clock and are actually handing over a decent set of keys to your rookie QB. This isn't trading the farm and putting the rookie QB in a terrible situation with a poor line, no skill talent, etc. This is very much the opposite. Reality is the bulk of my off-season would stay the course of the above scenario - other than I'd probably be a bit more aggressive to sign more blue-chip players via free agency, however, there is a balancing act here as we will have hired a new coaching staff which means there will be more turnover. Yes the defense is trending favorably - but a new HC will have new people and new philosophies. Some players will fit, some won't. Turnover will definitely happen - it always does - new coaches have new favorites and use certain players to send examples. This gives you another shot at getting a true franchise QB (I'm not there yet with Fields) vs. just a good or solid QB (which right now is the most I would be willing to bet on Fields becoming). Quite frankly - I feel very good about either scenario. I still lean to Scenario 2 - because I just don't see Fields playing enough QB. But my god - if he does make progress, heck, even if he doesn't make progress, if having more weapons and better talent around him makes it easier for him to make the "vanilla" plays all while adding more dynamic weapons to maximize his playmaking ability (both the deep ball and his ability to run) - than in some ways that alone changes the game. Trend: My trend was squarely in the draft a QB camp a month+ ago. It has trended to being closer to 60/40 draft a QB at this point (so momentum has been trending more favorably towards Fields).
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I think of it more from - when we make the trade - we should get a blue chip player as part of it and whether we are keeping Fields or not - we still have a couple years until his cost would become truly exorbitant - so we are still in a window where cap wise we can spend a bit more on guys like a Crosby (who are under contract). If we did it - hopefully it is for a blue chipper with a very fair deal (kind of like DJ Moore) - but I do agree it would probably be more likely it was someone on the other side of the ball (i.e defense / 3 tech). The alternative is - Bears get 3 1st rounders out of the trade out of #1 (which is certainly possible).
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Week 14 Official Game Thread - DET @ CHI, SUN, 12/10, Noon, CHI +3, O/U 42
DABEARSDABOMB replied to adam's topic in Bearstalk
That was a fun game - defense has been so fun to watch. So well coached and the young players showing up! JJ is going to get paid - what a monster at db. Brisker. Sweat. Edmunds and Edwards. -
Is it certain the Panthers will hold the tiebreaker over the Cardinals and Pats?
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There is no one with the film Williams has in my mind. His arm talent is special and he had tons of experience playing and had to deal with suspect olines etc. Mccarthy is the next in my mind from a pure talent perspective but he doesn’t have near the reps and lack of reps is a real issue for guys making the jump. Penix is a nice pocket passer but too slow of a release and just not athletic enough. Screams mac jones to me. He is also old. Bo Nix had to transfer and something seems off but I get the intrigue. He did well at Oregon this year. Daniels I haven’t watched enough to say anything. Maye looks the part but I haven’t seen the hype but haven’t watched him a ton either.
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Echo what others said - I want everyone to stay. This is best forum for civilized bears talk on the planet and it’s because of all of us collectively. Re: Scs I might be completely wrong but I thought Adam might be scs and changed names but I could be wrong.
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With Jones he has an out at the end of this next year - so giants are in a good spot. Murray is another situation though - tons of guaranteed money.
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I agree with everything you said. Love is what he is. He is pretty solid at what he does, elite at almost nothing. I think that means he is what he is, a mediocre QB who can play above that within the right situation because the rest of the team can stack the cards in his favor. On the Fields front - I think he is similar - with the exception it is his elite talent and skillset that allows him to be a solid player, despite having some other simpler limitations. Both I think can be playoff QB's on good teams. I still think the upside of a Fields is higher, because the longer you play, the more some of those basic things should improve just due to the experience. I get that the elite athleticism will also decline - but Fields isn't just an elite athlete - his ability to throw downfield is really good and that shouldn't go away with age.
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Great outcome.