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Did We Dodge a Bullet?
Once the injury stuff popped up, there is no way you take him that early. The Bears already have enough young guys injured or who missed time last year, they didn't need another high risk injury guy.
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QB Comparison 2024-2025
Still wild that Caleb is the only QB in NFL history with this stat line in their first two seasons >7K Passing Yards, >40 Passing TDs, <20 INTs, >500 Rushing Yards, and he has crushed all those numbers: 7,483 Passing Yds, 47 TDs, 13 INTs, 877 Rushing Yds The two closest QBs are: Burrow had 7,299/47/19/260 Stroud had 7,835/43/17/400 For their first 3 seasons, Kyler Murray is the gold standard for the combination of Passing Yards, TDs, and Rushing Yards, though he threw 34 INTs. After 3 seasons, he compiled 11,480 Pass Yards, 70 TD, 34 INT, and 1,786 Rush Yards. Caleb can easily surpass Murray in every category except Rushing Yards.
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CB2 competition
If they trade him, it would have to be in-season. If they don't extend him, which is unlikely, then I assume he becomes a free agent and hopefully a comp pick for the Bears in the future.
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QB Comparison 2024-2025
With no other change than Comp%, if Caleb gets back to his rookie Comp%, +4.4% from last year, with all else equal, he would throw for 298 more yards (25 more completions), which would put him at 4,239 yards and 29 TDs and basically MVP#s (Maye put up 4,394 and 31). That is with no other change. So with any actual improvement, fewer drops, fewer throwaways, that is probably closer to his floor than his ceiling.
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CB2 competition
Stevenson is going into Year 4, I don't know how much more he can improve from here on out. Typically, a player is who he is at this point. Only 1 INT last year, when the Bears led the league in takeaways, is not a good look. Outside of the forced fumble, which was a big play, there was very little from him last year. The only thing that may make him improve is that he is in a contract year.
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QB Comparison 2024-2025
Yep, great guess. Love is an EPA machine, but folds like a wet paper bag under 4 mins, on MNF, and in the playoffs.
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QB Comparison 2024-2025
< 4 min (all situations): QB A: 14-31, 45.2%, 225 yds, 7.3 Y/A, 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 Sacks QB B: 29-57, 50.9%, 426 yds, 7.5 Y/A, 4 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sack, 1 Rush TD (Led NFL QBs in under 4 min for Total TDs: 5) You know who QB B is, who is QB A?
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Bears Rookie Class
I like your optimism. I don't know if WR is top 5 yet, last year with Moore, probably top 10, without him, until someone else steps up, probably top 12-15. TE and OL Rooms, in violent agreement. If Caleb is no worse than last year with improved Comp% and hitting the easy ones, top 5 is easy. Either way, I think collectively it equals a top 5 offense when you add in Swift/Monangai. Secondary should be top 5, but until I see Thieneman, who is at CB2, and if Gordon plays 15+ games, they are probably top 12 for me. If Gordon does play, Thieneman is legit, and whoever ends up at CB2 is not a weakness they target consistently (Vildor I am looking at you), then I can see your top 5. I actually like our LB corps, Sewell/Sanborn as depth pieces is solid. Bush was top 5 last year and Edwards was underrated when healthy. I am still concerned about DT and Edge 2. I honestly think they go as far as those two position groups allow. I can see a trading deadline move to shore those up if the team has a good record leading up to it.
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QB Comparison 2024-2025
If Caleb gets his Comp% over 65%, that wouldn't just make him above average, that would make him arguably the best QB in the league. He already is in the top 10 in basically every other major stat (7th in Pass Yds, 6th in Pass TDs, 1st in INTs) which doesn't even include the heroics. Stafford won the MVP and AP and had the 17th highest Comp%. I really feel like people are splitting hairs on this. Does he need to improve his accuracy, absolutely, but he is not THAT bad. Remember sacks and TTT were the big issues his rookie year. He was holding onto the ball too much and taking too many sacks. He went from historically bad to historically good in one offseason. I bet his Comp% will do the same. Caleb gave us some easy math because he attempts 33 passes a game. So to increase his Comp% by 3%, all he would need to do is complete one extra pass per game. So to get him to 64%, that is one extra completion per half. If they want him to hit his goal of 70%, that is just under 4 extra completions per game or 2 per half. Caleb led the league with 40 throwaways, just say he cuts that down by 10 by either running or by completing a pass. Now say the receivers don't drop the 3rd most in the NFL, and that gets cut down by 10 for the season. We are now down to 2.5 completions per game or 1.25 per half. So 1.25 extra completions magically turns him into the best QB in the league? Also, on a side note, did everyone forget some of the weather games the Bears played in? Holy crap, the PHI game was ridiculous, then there seemed to be several extreme cold games the Bears had to play in. Not to make excuses, but the weather is a huge factor in the passing game, so the more crappy games, the worse your stats will be: https://medium.com/data-science/football-weather-diving-into-the-effects-of-weather-on-nfl-qb-performance-f0edb420623d
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QB Comparison 2024-2025
So Mark Schlereth is making the rounds about how Caleb is a bad QB lol. That his superman plays are what saves him from being a bad QB. I think this is absolutely laughable. He just finished his 2nd year in the NFL, had a terrible coaching staff his rookie year, was getting sacked a ton, etc. Does he need to improve, for sure, but it's literally 3-4 total throws a game and he is magically an all-pro. There is no way he could put up stats like in the first post if he was "bad" or even mediocre. Just funny how some media guys that have some personal beef with him will go down with the ship instead of just admitting they were wrong.
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QB Comparison 2024-2025
Which is crazy to think about. Kramer was the last Bears QB to finish in the top 10 in Passing Yards (1995) since Caleb who finished 7th last year. He was 106 yards away from already being in the top 5. A funny fact is Rex Grossman finished 12th one year, which was higher than Cutler did in any season he played for the Bears (13th twice).
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QB Comparison 2024-2025
Comparing QBs closest to Williams in 2024-2025: Herbert 672-1016, 66.1%, 7597 yds, 49 TD, 16 INT, 804 Rush Yards, Years 5-6 (within 114 passing yards, 2 TD) Mahomes 707-1083, 65.3%, 7515 yds, 48 TD, 22 INT, 729 Rush Yards, Years 8-9 (within 32 passing yards, 1 TD) Williams 681-1130, 60.3%, 7483 yds, 47 TD, 13 INT, 877 Rush Yards, Years 1-2 Allen 626-943, 66.4%, 7399 yds, 53 TD, 16 INT, 1110 Rush Yards, Years 7-8 (within 6 TD) The biggest difference is that Williams was a rookie in 2024 with Flus as HC. Considering that, his being already in the mix with this group of QBs is a great sign. Mahomes and Allen are annual MVP Candidates, and Herbert has started to be put in that conversation. I honestly think Williams starts becoming a perennial 4K / 30 TD QB.
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2026 TalkBears Fantasy Football League
Awesome, let me know if you have any other questions. Yeah lol, I was a SoxTalk transplant.
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2026 TalkBears Fantasy Football League
Try this for email: My Team > Edit Team Info > Preferences Tab > Email Preferences > Preferred Email Address (Edit) I see your name and new team name associated with that team, not my info. For logo and name, are you saying you can't access it here: My Team > Edit Team Info > Name and Logo Tab That is where I can change mine; the only access I have to your team is the invite and the roster for keepers.
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2026 TalkBears Fantasy Football League
Invite sent.