adam

GB wins, St. Brown hurt, who was clearly a huge part of their game plan. Neither team looked particularly good. I feel much better facing either of them with Jaylon and Kyler. I was kind of surprised by how bad the defenses were. 7 TDs allowed between the 2 teams, 9 scoring drives. GB had 3 sacks (on Goff), DET had 0. No turnovers. Bears still in first, but a loss tomorrow would drop them to 2nd and GB would be 0.5 ahead. DET now has 2 extra losses.

Edmunds on IR, and they ruled out Edwards, Sewell, and Hyppolite.

Looks like all LBs and Stevenson are out, but Jaylon and Kyler are back.

Weather looks like it will be cold and windy. Hopefully this game doesn't come down to FGs.

No team controls its destiny more than the Bears do right now. Of all the teams in and around them in the NFC playoff picture, they have the most games against those teams (5), GB and DET have 3, SEA and SF have 2. The Bears just have to have the same record as DET or GB the rest of the way to make the playoffs, just beat one of those teams to the finish. If they have the same record as both of those teams the remainder of the season, they win the Division, and DET misses the playoffs.

McCarthy is putting up a historically bad season. Bottom 5 QBR Season since they started tracking it in 2006. He just passed Will Levis for 5th worst, next up Josh Rosen. 2025 JJ McCarthy - 24.8 2024 Will Levis - 25.2 2018 Josh Rosen - 24.1 2011 Blaine Gabbert - 22.2 2010 Jimmy Clausen - 13.8 2006 Andrew Walter - 23.0

The incompletions can be a result of: 1. Bad throw/accuracy/timing 2. Receiver bad route/timing 3. Receiver drops pass 4. Defense caused - QB is escaping pressure/great PBU 5. Throw away (forced incompletion) In some cases, I feel like they are trading incompletions for INTs and sacks right now, so I will take that. However, we want to start to see an uptick in Comp% over the remainder of the season.

Basically every game he hits another milestone that no one has ever done. Like to end the season with 7K Passing, 1K Rushing, 40 Passing TDs, with fewer than 15 INTs would be another milestone that only he has ever achieved in the first two seasons of a career.

The Strength of Schedule thing is so skewed when you play more than one super bad team. RIght now the Titans, Jets, Raiders, Giants, and Saints have 2 or fewer wins. So if you played any of those teams a few times, your SoS is gone. NE has played the Titans, Jets, Raiders, and Saints, and the Bengals, Dolphins, Browns, and Falcons. That is 8 games against teams with 4 or fewer wins, and they are 7-1 in those games.

He told Ramsey, don't make me go Javon Wims on you boy.

LAR is for sure, they are humming. I am not sold on PHI, DET, or SF. PHI is 4-3 in their last 7, and lost to NYG and DAL in that stretch. See my post about Barkley, he has been off all year. For an 8-3 team, there is a lot of drama. DET is 3-3 in their last 6, and needed OT to beat NYG. They already have twice as many losses as last year. Goff playing in CHI in January should be fun in Week 18. SF is 4-4 in their last 8. People talk about the Bears wins. SF's last 3 wins have been against ARZ, NYG, and ATL. Their defense is not the same w/o Warner.

Halftime adjustments exist:

Some context to Year 2 QBs, McCarthy starting in his 2nd year, who sat for a year, taking over a 14-win team with arguably a top 3 WR in Jefferson, a great defense, and a QB Whisperer HC is one of 3 QBs since 1980 to pass for less than 1K yards, less than 10 TD Passes, and 10 or more INTs in their first 6 starts to start their careers. He joins DeShone Kizer and Ryan Leaf in that category. Williams is the first QB in NFL history with more than 6K Passing Yards, 750 Rushing Yards, 35 Passing TDs, and 10 or fewer INTs in his first 28 starts, and that includes 17 games in a season where his HC and OC were fired.

Yeah something is going on in PHI. I have not paid attention enough. Barkley has only 3 games with a YPC over 4.0, 4.8 against the Giants (12 carries), 5.0 against DEN (only 6 carries), and his best game of the year 10.7 against the Giants (had 150 and a 65-yarder). However, he has had 7 games with a YPC of 3.3 or less. In 6 of those he had 18+ carries. On the season he is averaging 3.7 YPC, but against any team but the Giants, it drops to 2.99 per carry, wild.

The Congunkulator says PHI 23 - CHI 20 based on EPA/P, # of plays, and PPG. With it being in PHI, 3 more pts go their way, and with the officials, probably another 3-4, which makes it more like a 9-10 pt game. This is all assuming no Jaylon or Gordon as right now the DET blowout loss accounts for a lot of the bad averages. If you just use the last 9 games for both teams, the Bears should be favored by 3.