adam

Caleb needs 108 passing yards to hit 5K for his career, and 1 TD pass to hit 30. If he does that on Sunday without throwing an INT, he will be the only QB in NFL history to throw for 5K Passing Yards, 30 Passing TDs, 500 Rushing Yards, and fewer than 10 INTs in their first 24 games to start a career. The only QB close is RG3 who threw 14 INTs. No other QB is under 15 that has the other 3 stat categories. RG3 had 32-14.

I am wondering if Johnson has told Caleb to throw the ball at all costs instead of scrambling, even when he has space to run? Why do I say this: The last two games, 4 rushes, -2 yards per game, with kneel downs accounting for 3 rushes for -4 yards total. So he has only rushed 5 times for 0 yards in the last two games in total. Going back since the start of the 4-game winning streak? 21 rushing yards in total. In the first two (both losses), he averaged 43 yards per game rushing. So he has dropped 38 yards per game on the rushing side between the 2-game losing streak and 4-game winning streak. That just seems like too much of a coincidence to not be purposeful. He has never had a streak of 4 games like this rushing the ball.

I do find it interesting that the Bears have the 9th highest rated team in PFF while the Ravens are 29th. Their D-Line is no longer elite, so they rely on Kyle Hamilton to make plays all over the field.

4-2 8 @ Baltimore Ravens - TOSS UP (Allowing a league high 32.3 ppg) 9 @ Cincinnati Bengals - WIN (Only scoring 19.4 ppg AND allowing 30.6 ppg) 10 New York Giants - WIN (scoring 21.9 ppg AND allowing 25.3 ppg) 11 @ Minnesota Vikings - TOSS UP 12 Pittsburgh Steelers - TOSS UP 13 @ Philadelphia Eagles - LOSS 14 @ Green Bay Packers - TOSS UP 15 Cleveland Browns - WIN (Only scoring 16.1 ppg) 16 Green Bay Packers - TOSS UP 17 @ San Francisco 49ers - TOSS UP (Only scoring 20.7 ppg) 18 Detroit Lions - LOSS 7-4 with 6 toss-up games, split those for a 10-7 record.

I would love for the running game to hang another 150-200 on the Ravens. That would more than likely equate to a win.

PFF Grades are always amusing. For this game, only two players on the entire team had a below average grade (below 50.0). Benedet had a 43.2 and Turner had a 29.7 on 10 snaps. The top 5 on offense were: Swift - 83.6 Dalman - 74.8 (kind of funny considering the snap issues) Monangai - 73.8 Thuney - 72.7 Jackson - 72.1 (he is slowly getting better and better, you don't hear his name called much) Top 5 on defense: Edwards - 86.8 Wright - 85.9 Jackson - 83.9 (only 14 snaps, but he seems to always be around the ball) Dexter - 76.6 Gordon - 74.1 Funny Grades: Edmunds - 53.6 (he was all over the place making plays, this is a ridiculous grade) Williams - 62.4 (for the first time ever, I think they gave Williams a higher grade than he deserved, accuracy alone puts him under 50.0, so I don't know what they are looking at.

I know it is asking a lot, but I want to see it for at least one more game. Why? Because Swift never had 3 great games in a row. It is really baffling. Here are his games before and after 100 yard rushing games in his career: 2020 - 22, 116, 27 2021 - 27, 130, 136, 0 2022 - 144*, 56 *-Week 1 2023 - 3, 175, 130, 56 2024 - 91, 129, 51 2025 - 38, 108, 124, ? His highest total in any of the 3 games that follows a 100-yd game is 71. The most likely yardage for him following a 2nd 100-yd game is 53. He has never had 3 straight games with 75+ rushing yards in his career.

Yeah good find. Offense up 7.4% and defense down 7.1% (which is better). Interesting nugget when looking at those. The Bears have the 2nd lowest penalized defense with 30 penalties for 209 yards. That is hard to believe considering how many bogus calls they have received. The offense is the 8th most penalized unit with 53-454 yards. So as a team, the Bears are a net -245 in penalty yards. That is almost an entire game's worth of yardage over 6 weeks, or 41 yards per game. That is way too high. The Bears lead the league in Turnover Differential at +11, which is the total of the 4th and 5th best teams combined at +6 and +5.

Lamar has not practiced yet, so this is something to watch. If he is out, this becomes much easier.

Since the Hail Mary game, Daniels has now went 14 games without passing for 280 yards and has went 8 straight without a Comp% over 75. I still think it is wild that a QB can be getting so much hype for passing for 222 yards against TEN.

Now thru 6 games, the sample size is more meaningful. In 2024, the offense had a league low 283.5 yds a game (32nd), averaged 18.2 pts per game (28th), with a -0.13 EPA/Play (26th). In 2025, the offense is 13th in YPG at 346.5, averaging 25.3 pts per game (11th) with an EPA/Play of -0.01 (T-13th). So points up 7.1 pts per game, yardage up 63 yards per game, and EPA/P up 0.12 per play. I would say that is tangible improvement across the board from last season. QBP Rate and sacks are also down. On defense, the Bears are 25th in pts allowed, at 25.8 PPG, 25th in YPG at 350.0, yet their EPA/Play is -0.09, good for 8th. Last year the defense was 27th in YPG at 354.2, but only 13th in PPG at 21.8, and their EPA/Play was -0.05, good for 14th. So the team is allowing 4 more pts per game, 4 fewer yards, and are 0.04 better per play. The net differential is basically a FG, which makes sense that the Bears are now winning close games they were losing last year. That all equates to the 12th best offense and 19th best defense thru 6 games, the 16th best team, and they currently hold the 7th seed in the NFC heading into MNF.

D'Andre Swift has the 2nd most runs of 10+ yards with 15. Taylor leads the league with 18. However, Taylor has 42 more carries than Swift, so Swift technically has more +10 yard rushes per attempt than anyone in the NFL (16.9%). Gibbs+Montgomery have 15 combined.

This game is a completely different story if the refs called an even game. It is a 40-10 blowout. Same for last week. The silver lining is the old Bears would shit their pants and lose. This is a different team.

Caleb is currently 19th in QB Rating, 17th in Passing Yards per game, not that you would know it, but he has a higher per game average than Nix, Daniels, and Rattler. Penix has him by 9 yards and Maye by 24 yards. There are 18 QBs who have taken more sacks than him and only 5 QBs with fewer INTs with the same number of attempts. Caleb's biggest issue is accuracy which impacts the Comp%. If that improves, he magically becomes a top 10 QB overnight from a top 15-20 right now.

As much as the passing game and Caleb need to improve, they have scored 21 or more in every game. I think there was so much emphasis put on the run game over the bye that it may have impacted the passing game a little bit. Again, no excuses, Caleb has to be more accurate. Odunze needs to catch the ball, and the Bears need to get some calls go there way or at least not have bogus calls against them.