adam

Line has slide to -4.5. The Bears can't lose at home to this Giants team without Skattebo. Hopefully the weather holds up and doesn't become a shit show.

Another way to look at it though, both Johnson and Allen have done this before as coordinators, so most of the in-game stuff is the same. Johnson has a few more responsibilities as a HC, but those are only related to challenges and timeouts, which he can get assistance from the booth on. As for players, most of the vets have playoff experience. For key contributors, most do like Swift, Thuney, Dalman, Jackson, Smythe, Jarrett, Sweat, Billings, Edmunds, CJGJ, Wright and Byard. We are now at the halfway point of the season. From most new offenses, this is when they start to become more consistent. So I think we should expect more efficient and consistent offensive output for the rest of the season. Ultimately, if the Bears can go 2-0 in the next two weeks, and both DET and GB go 1-1, the Bears control their own destiny, which is not something I expected. That would put them at 7-3 heading into the game against PIT, which is very winnable at home. Also, based on odds, that is the most likely outcome over the next two weeks. So it is not like we are reaching.

That is still funny to me, but there is a path in the next two weeks. This week, assuming DET beats WSH, CHI beats NYG and GB loses to PHI. That would slide DET into 1st in the DIV, tied with the Bears but holding the H2H tiebreaker. Regardless of the outcome of any other games, the Bears would also be locked into the 6th Seed either between SF and LAR or LAR and GB, depending on the winner of the LAR @ SF game. Now here is where it gets spicy. Week 11, if the Bears can beat the Vikings and go to 7-3, DET is playing in PHI, which PHI should be favored. Just say DET loses, they fall to 6-4, GB should beat NYG and move to 6-3-1. That would put the Bears in 1st at 7-3, GB in 2nd, and DET in 3rd. The odds of this happening are actually quite high, considering all outcomes.

It is also hard to compare Williams rookie year with this year or anyone else's rookie year. The more you look at what occurred around him, it is amazing what he was able to accomplish under so much duress.

Pix, there are a lot of recent examples of players improving YoY. Josh Allen had a 52.8% Comp his rookie year, 58.8% his 2nd year, and has never been below 63% in his last 6 years, but it took him until his 3rd year to get there. The crazy part about that was he had Brian Daboll the entire time. Another comp is Stafford, who only had one season above 60% comp in his first 5 seasons. Now with a career average of 63.5%. Goff had a 54.6% his rookie year, 62.1% his 2nd year and now has a 66.0% for his career. Williams will improve. The goal was 70%, but probably not realistic for his first year in the system. I think if he can improve in the 2nd half and get near 65%, that would be a good step in the right direction.

That would honestly be cool, but I prefer 10+ point wins where they are putting teams away and controlling the clock for the last 5 mins of the 4th quarter.

and Edwards had surgery on his wrist and is out a few weeks now. If the Bears can't beat the Giants at home, w/o Skattebo, and their top WRs are Robinson and Slayton, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs anyway.

Saw a thread on Twitter about EPA, so in looking for one thing, I ran across some interesting plays. These were the most impactful negative plays against Williams so far this season that were not an Interception or fumble lost: Week 8 - BAL - Bears down 30-16 with 33 seconds left. 4th and 1, Incomplete pass to DJ Moore, -3.9 EPA Week 6 - WSH - Bears up 13-7, 2nd Quarter, 4th and 1, Incomplete pass to Odunze, -3.5 EPA Week 4 - LVR - Fumble but recovered, 4th Quarter, 3rd and 5, -2.6 EPA Week 2 - DET - 2nd Quarter, 4th and 1, rush for no gain, -3.5 EPA Week 1 - MIN - 2nd Quarter, 4th and 3, incomplete to Moore, -3.5 EPA (2nd most important play of that game) Week 1 - MIN - 1st Quarter, 3rd and 2, Odunze for -4 yards, -2.3 EPA (9th most important play of that game) These were all top-10 most impactful plays for that week (for either team). A few things stand out, they treat a turnover on downs as bad as an INT, but only on the QB. If a receiver makes a reception but loses yards on the play, that is also on the QB. Garbage time stats still matter, which can pad stats but also hurt. In this case, Caleb lost 3.9 EPA on the last play of the game against BAL down 14 pts. The fumbled snap against LVR which lost 6 yards was -2.6 EPA. These plays are considered so bad that it takes a monster play to offset them or several positive plays.

Week 10 - 1. Maye - XXX Season QBR: 74.2, 2,285 yards, 17-4 TD-INT, 34 Sacks, 2 TD, 1 FL 2. Penix - XXX Season QBR: 57.7, 1649 yards, 8-3 TD-INT, 10 Sacks, 1 TD, 1 FL 3. Williams - XXX Season QBR: 55.4, 1916 yards, 12-4 TD-INT, 14 Sacks, 2 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD. 4. Nix - 53.4 QBR - 150 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 sack, -2 Rush Yds. 148 Total Yards. Won Season QBR: 54.9, 2126 yards, 18-8 TD-INT, 10 Sacks, 3 TD 5. Daniels - XXXX Season QBR: 51.1, 875 yards, 7-1 TD-INT, 13 Sacks, 2 FL 6. Rattler - XXX Season QBR: 50.1, 1450 yards, 8-4 TD-INT, 1 FL (benched for rookie) 7. McCarthy - XXX Season QBR: 31.8, 444 yards, 4-4 TD-INT, 14 Sacks, 2 Rush TD

Can you imagine the media firestorm if Williams threw 2 INTs with several other bad throws, only had 150 yards passing with one of them for 43 yds, which means the other 15 were for 107 yards? Instead, Nix wins Player of the Game, lmao! The game-winning FG came after a blocked punt where the offense lost 2 yards. Nix in his last 2 games combined: 34-65, 52.3%, 323 yds, 4.97 Y/A, 3 TD, 3 INT - but both were wins, so he is gritty. In those 2 games, DEN allowed a total of 22 pts and scored 28 lmao.

Yeah, the difference is Payton is better than Nagy. Outside of like 5 quarters of play, Nix has been terrible. In those 5 quarters though, All Pro QB. In the other 35, not an NFL starter. Carroll was a great coach and rah rah guy, but not anymore. He looks lost out there.

3 QB is in the MVP discussion with odds: Josh Allen: +150 (1,833 Pass Yds, 13 TD, 4 INT, 280 Rush Yds, 7 Rush TD) Justin Herbert: +2000 (2,390 Pass Yds, 18 TD, 8 INT, 305 Rush Yds, 1 Rush TD, 9 games) Baker Mayfield: +2000 (1,919 Pass Yds, 13 TD, 2 INT, 158 Rush Yds) ------------------------------------------------------ Caleb Williams: (1,916 Pass Yds, 12 TD, 4 INT, 183 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD)

I am giving Allen the benefit of the doubt right now as they have been working mainly with their 5th and 6th CB as starters for most of the year. No Jaylon, a lot of no Kyler, some no Tyrique. Lost Zah Frazier and Terrell Smith for the year. Brisker still not looking 100%. I know everyone has injuries but the secondary was supposed to be a strength. The DLine, especially the DTs have been super disappointing. Billings, Dexter, Jarrett all have underperformed, which has seemed to bring down everyone else.

The Pats were up by 10 entering the 4th? His GWD was against BUF. They were tied and he led the last scoring drive. That's why it was not a 4Q Comeback, because they were tied.

GB lost Kraft for the season, he was their leading receiver. So their main threat is Jacobs who averages 3.8 yards per carry. That makes both of those games a little easier on the defense. SF's defense is nowhere near they have been in the past. Warner is lost for the year I believe, and he may be a bigger loss than Jaylon on the Bears.