adam

I know there are a lot of variables in the schedules, but it feels like anytime you can get one of the South divisions, your schedule feels a little easier. The NFC North plays the NFC South and AFC East next year, so it looks like a more favorable schedule, even with a first place schedule: NFC South (TB, CAR, ATL, NO) AFC East (NE, BUF, MIA, NYJ) NFC East (PHI or DAL) NFC West (LAR or SEA) AFC South (JAX or IND)

In other roster related news, the Vikings traded a 4th rounder for Thielen who was just released today. So they got 8 receptions and 69 yards for a 4th rounder. Ouch. Overrated GM and HC there.

In this 5-game win streak, the Bears are now 1 of 4 teams since 2000 to have a 5-game win streak where they scored +140 points, had +950 rushing yards, and +10 Takeaways. Interestingly enough, all 4 teams started the season 2-2, all made the playoffs, and PHI won it last year. 2024 PHI 14-3, 10W (Started 2-2), won SB 2019 BAL 14-2, 12W (started 2-2), lost playoff game 2012 SEA 11-5, 5W (started 2-2), won playoff game They are also 1 of 5 teams since 2000 to win 9 out of 10 with +250 Pts, +1500 Rushing Yards, and +25 Takeaways. The last team since: 2015 CAR 15-1, 14W (lost SB) 2012 SEA 11-5, 5W, won playoff game 2009 NOR 13-3, 13W, Won SB 2000 DEN 11-5, 6W, lost playoff game These teams average a 13-3 record (since most occurred before 17 games). No team had fewer than 11 wins. All strong signs that this is not a fluke.

If definitely shows the odds are off, and GB should not be favored by 6/6.5. Can GB win by a TD or more, sure, but if the teams play like they have over the last month against each other, then CHI should have a slight edge. Kraft is still #2 in targets and has missed 4 games. It is now Doubs and Jacobs. Wyatt was their best DT. It feels like there will be some running lanes inside zone.

87 Yards Rushing on 23 carries won't take you very far in the playoffs. Especially considering the weather. It is trending towards playoff games in NE and DEN, in January.

Yeah for sure. It will be interesting to see if he gets a 2nd contract though. You can only give out so many of those on each side of the ball.

Yes, with the Conference AND Division Lead at stake. This becomes the biggest game for the Bears since 2018.

If they can beat the Packers in GB, they may not lose another game.

It's my thing lol. I use EPA/Play for CHI offense vs EPA/Play vs GB Defense, then take into account average plays run vs average plays against, then PPG vs Pts Allowed. So if you are running more plays and your opponents run less, your EPA is more impactful than theirs, and vice versa. None of the injuries are really accounted for in a meaningful way, which puts the Bears in a better position going into next week considering Kraft was their #1 Receiving threat and Wyatt was their top DT.

Man that Week 1 loss still sucks. Should be 10-2, a game up on every other team in the conference, but I will take it.

Your NFC #1 Seed Chicago Bears. I thought the Rams were the one team the Bears would lose against if they played in the playoffs. Now I am not. The Bears can beat any team in the league right now head to head.

The DET game really skews the Bears per game average stats. Removing that game puts the defense near league average for scoring and yards.

The Congonkulator says: Using the entire season's stats, GB has the edge 25-23. Only using the last 5 weeks (recent and relevant): the Bears have the edge 23-22. So it seems that the team that scores 24 will probably win.

My order of likelihood of resigning: S - Byard - Most likely, team captain, still playing at a high level, both Safeties are FAs, need to keep at least one, Byard will be cheaper. DB - CJ Gardner-Johnson - Knows DA's system, already an impact player, brings an edge to the defense. CB - Wright - Would love for them to find a way, but unless Wright takes a mid-level deal, someone else will pay him to be their CB1. S - Brisker - Injuries and inconsistent play. Unless he takes a team friendly deal, or they don't resign Byard, I doubt he is back. WR3 - Zaccheaus - He gone unless he takes near a vet min deal that doesn't impact cap. With Odunze, Moore, and Burden, and the TEs, he is now the 6th or 7th passing option. DT - Billings - He gone

I would be fine with that. I think Billings, Brisker, and Wright won't be back. Billings has underwhelmed. Brisker has too much injury risk for a big contract. Wright is a tough loss but there are too many guys waiting in the wings to pay 3 CBs top dollar after Jaylon and Kyler. So Byard and CJGJ would be their only two big name free agents resigning.