adam

The grading systems are so tough, especially if you are looking back at the totality of the season, and not on a snap by snap basis. What is hard to provide context to: if one OL fails on a play and it counts as a hurry/hit/sack, it obviously impacts his grade AND the play. If two or more OL fail on a play and it only sometimes counts as a hurry/hit/sack, the grading gets out of whack. If you use PFF, Fields was the most pressured QB in the NFL last year at 48.9%, no other QB with over 400 drop backs was over 45%. Zach Wilson was 2nd at 43.1%. Now you have to apply some context to that as well. Fields holds the ball longer than normal, causing some of that pressure, and some was also related to play design. At the end of the day, both sides can be right. Fields has some self-induced pressures AND the OLine needs to improve, especially at Center.

I think since Fields is under contract and still on the team that him staying would always be the most likely option from a betting standpoint since it takes nothing for that to occur. Any other option involves external partners, which is a huge unknown. That will change at the combine. If Williams comes in under 6'1", I think the odds of Fields staying increases. If something negative happens with Williams or Maye, Fields odds go up. Conversely, if something positive happens with the QB prospects, Fields odds probably go down.

I'm back. Was out of the net for a business trip. Did I miss anything? ?

NE drafted Mac Jones. I think they were able to do that when they had Brady, which allowed them to continually turn over the roster without having to sign guys to second contracts (Chandler Jones, etc).

I don't know if correlation equals causation here. I suspect defensive players will have a higher rate. I think it means good/great teams rarely draft in the top 10 (KC traded up for Mahomes), and rarely do teams with a top 10 pick improve enough from a bottom 10 team to a Super Bowl contender with the drafted player still on their roster. It makes sense. The Bears situation is super unique. This will be the first time a team that didn't finish with the worst record is drafting #1 overall without having to trade up for it.

Yeah, these are supposed to be the guaranteed hit guys. It's just interesting how few make it to a Super Bowl with their drafted team.

The best part, which some people are missing is, this really is a no-lose situation. Poles has had 2x get out of jail free cards, last year and this year. If they run it back with Fields, he will have a mountain of draft capital to play with (I would even expect a trade up at some point). If they go with Williams, his floor makes it fairly low risk and the QB clock is reset, allowing them to sign some bigger names and retain more of their guys as they hit FA.

For TEs, only 1 of 5 made it to a Super Bowl, that's 20% of the TEs drafted in the top 10. None won one, so zero. I don't know what is wrong there. Davis went to 2 with the 49ers, so a top 10 TE appeared with his drafted team in 8.3% of the Super Bowls since 2000. I was doing this from a drafted player perspective, not overall total appearances. Mahomes would really skew the stats for QB. He counts as 1 QB to win and appear out of the number of QBs that were also drafted in the top 10. This is the likelihood that a specific position drafted in the top 10 will win or appear in a Super Bowl.

I hope defense looks better. RB was shocking to be honest. I did not expect it to be the best one

43 QBs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. Of those 43, only 2 (Eli Manning and Patrick Mahomes) have won a Super Bowl with their drafted team, which is 5%. Only 6 (Ryan, Manning, Newton, Mahomes, Goff, and Burrow) have appeared in a Super Bowl with their drafted team, ~14%. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OL - 8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 21% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team QB - 5% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 14% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team Stafford won one with LAR, Leftwich was a backup with PIT when they won. So for Offensive Players, there have been 137 drafted in the top 10 since 2000. 17.5% have made a Super Bowl appearance with their drafted team, and 5.8% have won one with their drafted team. Summary: RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OL - 8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 21% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OFF - 5.8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 17% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team QB - 5% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 14% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team

39 Offensive Linemen have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. Of those 39, 3 (Johnson, Okung, Fisher) have won a Super Bowl with their drafted team, which is 8%. Surprisingly 8 OLs have appeared in a Super Bowl with their drafted team, ~21%. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OL - 8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 21% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team Next up QB, to close out the offense.

5 TEs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. Vernon Davis - 3 Super Bowls, lost 2 with SF, won one on the roster in DEN. Kellen Winslow T.J. Hockenson Kyle Pitts Eric Ebron Small sample size, but only Davis has been to a Super Bowl, 0/5 = 0% Super Bowl wins, 1/5 = 20% Super Bowl Appearance. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team

For RBs, it is better for just the RB but not the RB+QB combo. 17 RBs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. There were 2 Super Bowl wins (Lewis and Bush) with 4 total appearances (2-2) adding Gurley and Benson. What is crazy is in those 2 Super Bowls, they had Dilfer and Brees, both drafted by a different team. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team So far I have not found a top 10 RB or WR that was drafted by the same team as their QB who won a Super Bowl together, ouch. That is pretty wild.

You got Matt Ryan and Kurt Warner saying they should draft a QB and Ryan Leaf and Dan Orlovsky saying they should keep Fields. I am going to laugh when everyone is wrong and they sign Kirk Cousins lol.

These guys probably would've been cap casualties last offseason if not for the huge dead caps. Now with those more reasonable, they were no-brainer moves. It is nice to move on from them so early, because technically they could've kept them until they needed the money off the books, even into free agency. This would've prevented other teams from even contacting them or their agents about them.

It's hard not to be excited if the Bears go this route. Even if Justin doesn't work out, the team would be stacked and have multiple 1sts and 2nds in 2025.

Here is one way to look at it. Last year Poles said he had to be blown away by a prospect to keep the pick. He wasn't blown away by Stroud or Young. However, I bet he was blown away by Williams last year. Since then, Williams has lost some of his luster. Even then, he was so far ahead of the next guy that he is still the #1 pick, but he is no longer the second coming.

Oh yes, plus Scales and Marcedes Lewis are FAs. I assume bring Scales (36) back and with Cairo (32) would be the two oldest I believe.

I am working on doing all the other positions in the top 10 to see how they end up. It may just correlate the same way, which would ultimately mean the bad teams rarely become good in a timeframe where a top 10 pick is still on their team.

Technically they are still on the team until the league year ends and the new league year begins on March 13th. They have the two day tampering window (whatever that is for) before the league year officially starts that begins on March 11th. So more than likely, if the Bears are going to extend any of their own players, it will happen before March 11th.

$67M in cap space now (3rd most) > $55M effective cap (4th most). Here we go!

He was the last of the 2016 draft class. Jackson is expected to be released, he would be the last of the 2017 draft class. 2018 is already gone (Roquan), and 2019 is gone (Monty). Kmet and Johnson (if signed) would be the 2020 class.