adam

He is a very good system QB. It looks like he is going to be Kirk Cousins 2.0, so with a great supporting cast, he is going to be very good but is going to play to the level of the opponent's defense. He will struggle against CLE, BAL, MIN, and even CHI.

It is going to be a tough decision, and HUGE one for Poles. Looking back at the Arizona game, it is more of the same. Blame to go around. Penalties and lack of blocking on the O-Line, terrible playcalling on Getsy, zero receivers open, Fields not hitting open guys when they are open. So if you replaced only the QB, the results will be very similar. They are going to have to address all of those. Either Fields is going to have to improve more or they will draft a QB who they believe can do the things he is not doing. This is still an interesting comparison given the context, also consider the OCs for both teams: Leading MVP Candidate: 223.8 y/g, 19 TD, 7 INT, 52.4 y/g, 5 TD, 6 FL (15 games), TD Rate: 1.6, 0.8 T/O Rate Justin Fields: 208.8 y/g, 15 TD, 8 INT, 53.9 y/g, 3 TD, 4 FL (10 games), TD Rate 1.8, 1.2 T/O Rate So Fields is 15 passing yards per game and an INT every 4 games away from playing at a MVP level with Getsy as his OC. Two of Fields INTs came on hail marys and one literally hit the ground and should not have counted anyway. I will say, if Lamar wins MVP, I think the Bears stick with Fields. The comps are too close not too.

I actually thought about the over the middle stuff. I am wondering if the reason we don't see much MoF stuff is because they don't have the WRs to do it. Mooney and Scott are tiny, both drop passes, and fumble. Do you really want quick slants going to those guys? Probably not. So Moore and Kmet are your only reliable targets, and you can't also just send them across the middle on every play. So personnel may have some to do with that. I thought Shaheen was Frankenstein, but Kmet is huge too. If he could just work on his short area quickness and feet. He would be basically guardable.

The season played out kinda crazy too. They lose 4 in a row to start the season, with the last one being the Denver collapse. Then they finally get a win, then the next game Fields gets hurt and they lose. Bagent comes in and wins 2 of 4, then Fields comes back and they lose the collapse against Detroit. Then win 2 straight, then collapse against Cleveland, then the Arizona win. They are 6-5 since the 0-4 start and 4-2 in their last 6 with the 2 losses coming in the collapses. So they were that close to 6 straight wins and an 8-7 record heading into this weekend. Like last year, that was not a 3-win team. This season, they are not a 6-win team. That tells me it's coaching. When Justin Jones is dropping into coverage in back to back games, and both times the defense is gashed on the same concept, that is a problem. If they can add at least one high quality starter via FA, plus add 2-3 blue chippers in the draft, while cutting the dead weight, this roster is going to improve drastically. Last game showed they need WR2, FS, and C, followed by TE2 and Edge2.

So 3 out of 4 things occurred for the Bears in Week 16. TEN almost beat SEA which would've made the path easier. Now it is pretty tough, but outside of beating ATL in Week 17, there are only two other outcomes that must occur this weekend: 1. NYG beats LAR (-6.5), SUN Noon 2. PIT beats SEA (-3.5), SUN 3:05pm So the Bears need two underdogs to win, and PIT on the road. If either of these two don't hit, the Bears playoff hopes are dashed. With one in each time slot, the Bears could win and see the Giants win, then have to scoreboard watch to see if PIT can win in SEA. The odds are very unlikely for the Bears and this week will end the faint playoff hopes. I will say, at least they go into this game with a shot, and Week 18 has it's own motivation against the Packers, so all I can say is at least they kept it interesting for the entire season.

CAR got shafted against GB. PHI gets away with a ton of holds. The Bears aren't the only ones, but they are definitely in the group of teams that get hosed more times than not.

Absolutely, rarely can you get the best of both worlds. If they can go into the offseason with 3 straight wins, and beating GB to knock them out of the playoffs while still getting the #1 overall pick would be epic.

It's funny because they could technically keep trading one of two back infinitely and gain an extra pick the following year (as long as one of the picks is a top 10). CHI 2023 1st > CAR 2023 1st + CAR 2024 1st > LVR 2024 1st + LVR 2025 1st

A Raiders win would help the Bears draft pick from dropping further.

Mahomes is really struggling. You can clearly see the Chiefs struggling to field a reliable team with so much cap going to the QB. It is only going to get worse for them. Mahomes has one of the best play callers but because he doesn't have anyone to throw to, he plays like crap. 4 INTs in the last 4 games with only 4 TDs. Honestly this was sort of the QB I expected coming out of college. He would have a monster game (like he did earlier this year with 400+ yards and 4 TDs) and have 5-6 stinkers mixed in. So the average output was above average but he would be very inconsistent game to game.

The last 3 games: 309 of 365 yards to Cooper/Njoku 213 of 374 yards to Cooper/Njoku 168 of 311 yards to Cooper/Njoku compared to his first: 51 of 254 yard to Cooper/Njoku His numbers to Cooper and Njoku just keep going up, and once they got over 50%, they started winning.

Cooper/Njoku. Flacco is not stupid. He is throwing balls up to Cooper and Njoku and they are making him look amazing. The stats between them two and the rest of the team is comical. The Bears need to take note, just feed Moore and Kmet all day long with 90% of the targets, regardless of the coverage.

2 TDs in his first 2 seasons, then 13 in his last 2. I think he has one drop on the season on 86 targets, which is insane too.

Yeah, never missed a game, 65 straight and counting, and he is a local kid to boot. I am glad they extended him, just lock him in as a lifetime Bear. Since he doesn't rely on speed, he can have a very long productive career into his mid-30s.

This guy has quietly put together his best season as a pro. 70 receptions, 678 yards, and 6 TDs. Receptions and yards are already a career high with 2 games left. Yesterday was his first career 100-yard game and he did it only playing the first half. Right now he is 7th amongst TEs in receptions, and 28th in the NFL overall. For yards, he is 8th amongst TEs. So he clearly is a top 10 TE, and it feels like he still has some room to grow as a receiver.

Fields only sacked 1 time, which was the first time this season he had anything less than 2. Even in the game he got hurt in, he had 4 sacks before getting hurt. So having only one sack is notable. You have to go all the way back to GB in 2022, Week 4 to find the last game where he had one sack or less.

Here is the 2021 QB Group with their QBRs per season and ELO rank this year. Lawrence is still the top, but if you see his most recent games, he has 5 TDs, 5 INTs, and 3 fumbles lost in the last 3 games while the Jaguars have lost 4 straight: 1. Lawrence 39.1 > 56.1 > 58.0 (10th ELO) 2. Mills 41.2 > 35.0 > 49.2 (N/A ELO) 3. Fields 31.4 > 56.3 > 44.8 (22nd ELO) 4. Jones 56.9 > 38.4 > 37.1 (45th ELO) 5. Wilson 33.4 > 38.5 > 29.9 (55th ELO)

It seems like Mac Jones started good, then got worse (more tape on him?). Lawrence had a really good stretch between two seasons but has really fallen off of late. Wilson has been bad almost the entire time, and Fields has been up and down but seems like he is trending the best out of all of them over the last couple of months.

I was really close with the score for the Cards game. I feel like it will be similar, Bears 24-13.

ATL looks a lot like ARZ, a good TE and RB, but that's it. Playing in CHI will help the Bears. A dome team playing in 30 degree temps is never fun. Game time temp projected to be between 33-35. I am just hoping for a good game from Fields, and no more injuries. Regardless if Fields is the man or gone, him playing well puts the Bears in the best position to win next year. Either he take off from there and improves even more next year, or his improved performance makes a trade for lucrative in a return.

Is Fields with a new OC better than a rookie with that new OC? One crazy note, for how bad Lawrence has looked recently. He seems to have really regressed as the season has gone on, Fields may be the best QB of that year group.

On a side note, are the Bears ever going to get any calls? Jordan Love got hit legally after a throw, boom, 15 yards. Then they got a pass that clearly hit the ground out of bounds called as a catch, even after review. Those calls allowed GB to win, which actually helped the Bears with the Panthers pick, but the Bears always have the calls go the other way. There were even two phantom calls against the Bears, one hold on the long Fields run and a DPI on the next drive that was BS. The game is hard enough that if you have to also overcome the officials, it makes it near impossible to win. Yet, the Cards never got a holding call against their offense, but both of their long plays only happened because of holds. Very frustrating.

If CAR wins one, Bears get the #1 pick. If CAR wins 2 of 2, it could drop to #4. So the best the Bears can do is #1 and #6 and at worst it could be #4 and #18

Wow Pats win, Bears #1 pick now basically a lock.

Fields had a 71.5 Passer Rating and 65.5 QBR against ARZ. ARZ was ranked 32d in Defensive DVOA. He now has a 85.6 QB Rating, 23rd among QBs with enough passing attempts to qualify. For QBR, he slide up slightly to 44.9 which is 22nd, just behind Derek Carr and Russell Wilson, and just ahead of Sam Howell. QBR 50.0 is average. I think Fields has made Poles decision a lot easier than it should've been. Poles just needs to sift thru all the other noise (O-Line play, Receivers, play caller, injury) and figure out what is best for the team. As long as he is GM, he ain't getting the first pick again. If he messes this up, he is fired in 2 years.