adam

All I know is this is going to be a wild offseason. They didn't make the Panthers trade until March 10th last year. So we are going to have some crazy speculation going until at least March 10th again, or possibly up until April 25th. This year the combine is February 26th – March 4th, March 5th is the Franchise Tag deadline, March 11th starts free agency, the draft is Apr 25 - 27, and May 2nd is the 5th Year option deadline.

That's the thing, if you use the entire package or career stats, that says you draft a QB #1 as Fields has underperformed as you need more out of the QB position to make deep playoff runs. If you use the last 9 games only, it says he is right at the cusp of the top 10 QBs in terms of overall production and you keep him and build an even better team around him where you don't need him to be top 5 to win a Super Bowl.

Yes, that's why they don't have a second. I was saying with any trade back will probably net them a 2nd, so if they traded back from 1 to 3, and somehow missed on MHJ, I could see them trading back again which could yield a second 2nd rounder, which would be pretty wild.

If the Bears traded down intending to get MHJ and someone jumped them to get him, I would expect Poles to try to trade down again. Let someone else come up to get a QB, then go wild, grab a WR (Odunze), DL (Newton), and TE (Bowers) with additional draft capital. What is so crazy is the Bears are starting with 2x first rounders and 0 second rounders, but any trade in the first is going to net a future 1st and probably a current 2nd. So if you trade down a second time (so 1 to 3, then 3 to 10), you could add ANOTHER 1st rounder in 2025 (that would be 3), and a 2nd 2nd rounder in 2024 while still have two picks in the top 12 (5 picks in top 75). Then have 3x 1st rounders and 2x 2nd rounders in 2025. MADNESS.

Sort of off topic, but after watching some SF games. The Bears need to have Fields do tosses to the RBs and WRs in motion forward, so he gets credit for a completion and all the yards they gain. SF runs this crack toss, but because Purdy tosses it forward, it is considered a pass.

Tom Brady?

What's wild to me is Mahomes is seen as potentially the GOAT, or at least top 5 all-time. This season he has a QB Rating of 92.6, averages 264 passing yds a game (285 yds overall), 7.0 Y/A, and has 27 TDs (1.7) to 17 Turnovers (1.1). This is his 7th season in the same offense with a HoF TE and a great O-Line. I think the question becomes, can Fields get to those numbers? Fields has 268 yd/g, 1.8 TD, and 0.9 meaning he is 17 yards away from having a near identical season to Mahomes. Fields QB rating is 85.8 with 1 INT that hit the ground. How does Fields production compare to the expected MVP? Jackson averages 230 passing yards a game and 51 rushing for 281 yards a game. He has 29 TDs and 13 turnovers. His TD rate is 1.8/g (same as Fields), his turnover rate is 0.8/g (Fields is 0.9). So with 268 yds/g, Fields is 13 yards away from the projected MVP yet somehow there is a conversation about replacing him with a guy that would throw for 50 more yards (7 more completions of 7yds), but rush for 30 less (6 less rushes of 5 yds), and that is the BEST CASE scenario. Here is my question, would you rather have Trevor Lawrence production (271 yds/g, 1.5 TD/g, 1.2 TO/g) with an extra 2nd round pick or Justin Fields (268 yds/g, 1.8 TD/g, 0.9 TO/g) with an extra 1st round pick?

Also, does Fields in the game help the RBs rushing totals? Can that indirect effect allow them to gain those 17 yards lost? I think it does.

Fields career in 4 quarters (9 games per quarter): 1Q - 4 games with 270 total yards, 8 TDs (0.89), 14 Turnovers, 2 games with 3+ turnovers -------------------------------- (Nagy to Getsy) ------------------------------ 2Q - 2 games with 270 total yards, 14 TDs (1.56), 7 Turnovers (2 other games over 250 yds) 3Q - 3 games with 270 total yards, 15 TDs (1.67), 11 Turnovers 4Q - 6 games with 270 total yards, 16 TDs (1.78), 8 Turnovers (1 other game over 250 yds) So 270 yards is sort of the threshold for high-end/elite QBs, that would total 4,590 yds for a 17 game season. 1.8 TDs per games is 30 TDs for a 17 game season. So right now Fields' last 9 games or last quarter of his career, he is averaging 268 yds per game which also includes the partial game where he got injured. His TD rate per game is 1.78, which is rounded up to 1.8. So he basically hits the bottom of that threshold on average for his last 9 games for both yardage and TDs. The last part of the equation is turnovers. Most elite QBs have less than 1 per game. Fields interestingly enough, hit that in his 2nd quarter (first with Getsy) and the 4th quarter as well. So the question becomes, can someone like Williams or Maye exceed 268 yards per game and 1.78 TDs with a 0.89 turnover rate? For the season that would be 4,556 total yards, 30 TDs, and 15 turnovers. Stroud seems like the new gold standard for rookies, right now he averages 285 yds, 1.7 TDs , 0.64 turnovers Tua, who leads the league in passing yards, averages 282 total yards per game. Stroud surpasses him with some extra rushing yards. Cousins was leading the league in total yards per game average at 295. Allen is at 275, Mahomes at 285, Prescott at 280, and Hurts at 275, and Jackson at 281. So the last question is, is using the #1 pick on a QB to gain 17 total yards (passing+rushing) per game, 1 less TD per year, and 4 fewer turnovers per year worth it? That is basically what you gain from going from Fields to Stroud at best. The risk is Maye/Williams/Daniels are Trubisky 4.0. This info leads me to believe they will stick with Fields and add a playmaker to upgrade at WR2 (which would gain 50yds per game and 6-8 TDs per year compared to Mooney/Scott.

There are some amazing pics from the game.

One thing Poles has to consider is Fields trade value. So if a team like ATL who thinks they are a QB away, what if they are willing to do a Stafford-like trade and give up say a 1st and a future 3rd for Fields. Would that be enough to sway Poles in that direction? That would give the Bears the #1, #9, and #10 picks in 2024, and then an extra 2nd (CAR) and 3rd in 2025 for example. Just say they go QB at 1, they can still get a WR and another blue chipper (Newton or Bowers) at 10 OR trade back one of those for extra picks. What is going to make the Bears the best team possible in 2024 and beyond.

Final Standings (Payouts) and 2024 Draft Order: 1. Fields of Dreams ($440) - 10th pick (Adam) 2. Comfortably Dumb ($200) - 9th pick (Duane) 3. Savagew/LooseMorals! ($75) - 8th pick (Brad) 4. Nips&Tips ($35) - 7th pick (Jason) 5. Motm - 6th pick 6. PapaBear - 5th pick 7. The Bunny - 1st pick Consolation Round Winner 8. Victorious Secret - 2nd pick 9. Nopper - 3rd pick 10. The Mad Lithuanians - 4th pick (new GM needed) We are losing Andrew and have an opening for a new GM to take his team, currently drafting 4th next season. Payouts go out via Leaguesafe once the league closes on Yahoo on Jan 2nd. The payouts will be on hold until 5 GMs vote YES to the payouts or Jan 8th, whichever comes first.

The 4th quarter thing is concerning, but when you are trailing 90% of the time, it makes you super predictable and the defense can be very aggressive. Which is why I hate when Flus goes to prevent and passive zones with a lead. All splits are much different when you consider leading, tied, and trailing. So of course most players trailing in the 4th quarter are going to have worse stats unless you are Tom Brady.

If Williams measures in at only 6ft even, I think he is gonna drop.

Hmm, let me see. Very true, but how much of that is on Getsy vs Fields. That is tough to separate.

The Bears are 10th in 3rd Down conversions (41.9%) and 12th in RZ% at 59.6%, and tied for 16th in TDs. This feels about right. A few TDs left on the field with those dropped passes.

So check this out, I have been digging in some stats (go figure). One thing that really impacts actual raw stats is game situation. Fields has been playing from behind more than 90% of the QBs in the last 3 seasons. When I compared him to Lamar Jackson's first 3 seasons, I didn't even realize Fields had double the amount of passing attempts from behind than Lamar had. The game is much easier you are not trailing. Lamar also had the #1 defense that was continually giving him the ball with a short field. So the raw stats are super skewed. When I sorted by splits, and said give me only stats when the game is tied, Fields is 1 of 16 active QBs in the last 3 seasons (cumulatively) to have a Passer Rating above 90.0 when the game is tied. Fields has a 92.3 rating when the game is tied. Justin Herbert is 92.9. Lamar has a 84.1.

PFF gave Fields an 81.0 for the ATL game, the 2nd highest game of the season for him (DEN). For the season, Fields has a 75.1 PFF grade, which is 21st for qualifying QBs. That is really good considering PFF hates Fields. That is up from 70.2 last season and 64.2 his rookie year. With one game left, he has a chance to inch his total grade closer to 80, which would put him in the top 15.

Also, if the Bears decide to trade the #1 pick instead of getting a QB there, that pick could yield 2-3 extra rookie contracts, negating any difference in QB salary vs other roster spots.

My thoughts are, if Poles believes Fields is a top 15 QB today and can still improve, they will trade the first pick, and at most may take a developmental QB, but not one in the first few rounds. Williams, Maye, or Daniels may be a top 10 QB, but the probability of going from Fields to Bryce Young is just as high as going from Fields (top 15 QB) to top 10 QB. So the gain vs risk says you keep Fields and the improvement for whatever position you draft with that pick (say WR2 goes from Mooney to MHJ) is greater than Fields to a rookie QB. Looking at positional cap hits, using the 10th highest hit, QB costs $40M, Edge costs $21M, WR costs $20M, IDL costs $18M, CB costs $15M. What does this matter? Well if you keep Fields and have to pay him soon, he will cost between $40-50M per year on the cap, but if you draft a WR or Edge with that pick, you are saving $15-20M with a player on a rookie deal. COA 1 - Fields $40M + Rookie WR $7M = $47M COA 2 - Williams $7M + FA WR or Edge $20M = $27M So there is a $20M difference for 3 years. Eddie Jackson cap savings if cut = $12.5M, Cody Whitehair cap savings when cut = $9.1M, there is $21.6M.

Looking at recent games, GB just crushed MIN, but MIN was starting Jaren Hall, their leading rusher was Ty Chandler, and Johnny Mundt was their starting TE. Last week, they needed a last second FG to beat CAR, and they lost to TB and NYG in the two games before that. So 2-2 in the last month. Compare that to the Bears, who are 3-1 in their last 4, who crushed ATL by 20, beat ARZ by double digits, the same ARZ team that beat PHI this week, then lost the collapse game to CLE and Joe Flacco by 3, and then they beat DET by 15 before that. So if feels like the Bears should have the edge in this game as long as they are healthy.

This is it. The Bears are eliminated, but this game would put an exclamation point on the season. The Packers make the playoffs with a win, and miss the playoffs with a loss. So they have a ton of motivation to win this one. GB has the 13th Offense for yards, Bears now 15th. For Defense, Bears are 12th, GB is 21st. The Bears are the 2nd best rushing offense and best rushing defense per game. The Bears are #1 in INT (22), Packers are 30th (7). So the Bears have the edge overall. The Packers have the better passing game and screen game with Jones, but that's about it on offense. The Bears have the better rushing attack. Kmet's health is going to be key. If Kmet is healthy and plays, I think the Bears can eek out a close win 21-20. If Kmet does not play or is limited, I think the Packers win 24-17. A win and it's almost a guarantee that Flus, Getsy, and Fields would be back. A loss, and I would say all of those would be up in the air.

Something to consider, a lot of QB numbers are way down this year. The TD lead with 16 games played is Prescott with 32. That is super low considering QBs in the past had over 50.

Fields ended up with a 66.0 QBR for Week 17 which bumped his season QBR to 46.3. It has been an uphill battle all season but he does have 3x 60+ QBR games out of his last 4 games. That is a positive trend considering he started the season with an 18.3, 16.8, and 16.3. Fields QB Rating is now at 85.8 after a 99.5 for the game. Fields has a good chance to lead the team in passing and rushing for a 2nd consecutive season.

He has but he gets way too lucky on too many passes. This is his first full season on tape, the league will adjust. He will have a much harder time next season. He throws to a lot of wide open receivers. Crazy to think Love will average 255 yards per game (passing+rushing) and Fields in 12 games counting the one he got hurt in averages 253 yds per game.