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Everything posted by adam
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QUICK HITS - Pick 3 Points and Give a Brief Explanation...
adam replied to madlithuanian's topic in Bearstalk
Very true on DET, there really is no comparison. GB is the worst. It is a family tradition to hate the Packers. -
I know and I hate that it feels like work and it caused stress. That is the last thing we want out of this.
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Your team is yours until you say otherwise. I have never used the ESPN app. We can do a vote and see if others are willing to switch. I have no preference and have no issues switching if you believe it is a better experience.
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Very true, Fields is to blame for a good portion of the pressure, but the TTT stat is super skewed because if he scrambles and then throws, that 5 second play counts towards that number making it look worse. If you just time non-scramble plays, it is much lower. Also, Getsy has no quick slants or other passes that get out immediately like McDaniels does. That is very frustrating.
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That includes 4.5 games with Bagent at the helm, so those numbers are even more impressive when you consider that.
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QUICK HITS - Pick 3 Points and Give a Brief Explanation...
adam replied to madlithuanian's topic in Bearstalk
1. I agree, but he is a baby HC, and he has improved. If he keeps improving, he might be able to get there. 2. Yep, I am good either way, would be sad to see Fields go, but understand the business. In Poles I Trust! 3. Yeah man, I am soooo sick of that team, it is crazy. Even their bloggers and beat reporters are annoying. Just like whipping DET, it be such an amazing way to go into the offseason. -
I assume we will get a few more when SF/DAL/PHI players bow out. Jenkins, Edwards, Brisker, and Moore will probably get in as alternates as they were right there in the fan voting.
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If they win on Sunday, then there is definitely a positive trend, a win on the road against a decent QB, 3rd straight win for the first time, etc. However, a loss just says they are where they are and the trend line may be going up but marginally.
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Both of you guys are part of the OG crew, so it tough to see you go, but I understand. When it feels like work and it is no longer fun, I totally understand. I have actually used it as a way to cope with having such a bad team for so long. MadLith has been snakebit the last two years, I believe having the most points against 2 years in a row. That sucks and is really frustrating.
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According to PFF, Fields is pressured on 48.1% of his dropbacks (the most in the NFL). Jordan Love is at 31.2% which is the 5th best among qualifying QBs. Tua is #1 at 24.3%, basically half as many dropbacks is he pressured, compared to Fields.
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Burrows numbers are worse than Fields, Lawrence is meh, and once they get tape on Stroud, more than likely, his numbers will drop too, but Stroud would be the only one I would consider.
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Yeah the pressure rate matters. They need to have all of the stats weighted with pressure %.
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He is staying. Out of Flus, Getsy, and Fields, Flus is the most likely to stay. The team's improvement from Week 1 until now is quite remarkable. The only fear I have is the trend of only beating teams with bad QBs. His wins this year have come against Howell, Hoyer, Young, Dobbs, Goff, Murray, and Heinicke. He has lost to Love, Mahomes, Wilson, Cousins, Herbert, Carr, Goff, and Flacco. This goes back to last year as well. An extension of that is beating good QBs on the road. A Flus team has yet to do that. He only has 3 road wins in the last 2 years total, and they were against Howell, Dobbs, and Zappe. That's it. The next step in this progression is beating a decent QB on the road, I would say, based on Love's stats this year, he qualifies. So a win against Love on Sunday would sort of break the trend. He would also get that elusive 3rd straight win. So there is a lot on the line.
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They have a lot of average players with a good scheme on offense.
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The Bears can win 3 in a row for the first time since 2020 with a win on Sunday.
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The Pass Defenses GB and Love have faced since their bye: Post Bye CAR 3rd TB 32nd NYG 20th KC 2nd DET 26th LAC 30th PIT 22nd LAR 24th MIN 18thx2 DEN 23rd GB has not faced a defense like the Bears who are #1 against the run AND have the most INT in the league. If the Bears can shutdown the screen game with Jones, I think they will win handily. This game fits right into the Bears strengths (Bears #2 rush attack against GB's #28 Run Defense). The Bears should be able to control the clock. As long as they can limit turnover, I think the Bears win by 10.
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I added the players. Basically if need be, they could add vet min guy for about $1M per year.
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Game Time temperature 31-33F on Sunday, context matters. Just on averages, Fields should outgain Love and have similar TDs, while Love will have 10-20 more passing yards while Fields has 30-40 more rushing yards. Jordan Love (21-40F) 3 games, 101.8 QB Rating, 69.3%, 769 yds (256/g), 6.7 Y/A, 6 TD, 1 INT, 13 rushing yds (4/g), 0 TD 260 yds per game, 2 Total TDs/g, 0.3 INT/g Justin Fields (21-40F) 2 games, 93.8 QB Rating, 60.0%, 491 yds (246/g), 7.6 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT, 103 rushing yds (52/g), 2 TD 298 yds per game, 2 Total TDs/g, 0 INT/g Expect a lot of dink and dunk from Love.
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And Philly is burning right now. They are trending down fast. Losing to ARZ? Carter still has elite traits but will always have the bad stuff that comes with it. Also, once they get enough tape on some players they find ways to neutralize them.
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One sneaky thing to think about for next year. They say turnovers are "luck" and you rarely lead the league in multiple or consecutive years. So even if the Bears get fewer takeaways, if they are more efficient on offense and turn more of those into points, it would be a net positive.
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Going off shear need, meaning biggest upgrade of one roster spot from the current player(s), my order would be: 1. Center - I know this won't be the first one addressed in the draft or FA, but adding a league average player to this position would be the biggest upgrade on the roster IMO. The Center touches the ball every play, is responsible for getting the ball to the QB on time, helping with protections, identifying the Mike, etc. A great Center helps the entire line and QB. A bad one makes everyone worse. 2. WR2 - Mooney has been serviceable at best, but highly replaceable. This to me would be the 2nd biggest upgrade felt on the offense, especially considering this will more than likely be a high draft pick. We have been craving a true WR1 for awhile and were blessed with DJ Moore. Now to truly compliment him with a Robin would also make Moore better. Passing volume would have to increase to fully utilize this guy. 3. RG - I have not been high on Davis, maybe he can shake off a bad year, but only looks slightly better than Patrick or Whitehair out there. I am surprised they haven't went to Carter. If there is a way out of his contract, I would move on from Davis, he has been that bad for me. 4. TE2 - Just based on usage, I have this below RG because RG plays every down. The Bears need a U-TE to compliment Kmet. That is missing right now, or is in need of an upgrade on par with WR2, however, WR2 sees more snaps than TE2, so I put WR2 first. Like I said with WR2, passing volume would need to go up to make use of this guy and get him targets. Otherwise, you are just taking them away from Moore or Kmet which may just be a wash. 5. 3rd Down Back/Scat Back or Real Slot WR - On 3rd Down, it only seems like the RB is there to be an extra blocker, but if you had a pass catching RB who could line up in the backfield, then go out wide (Cohen), that creates hell for defenses. In the same breath, having a real Slot WR who has short area quickness to go with Moore and Odunze would be wild. You can mix and match with Kmet or a U. The amount of combinations would be epic.
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Two things to add, if he trades back and gains another first (say in 2025), they would have the draft capital to move up for a QB in case Fields regresses or gets hurt. Hedging in back to back years. If Poles can keep flipping a first to acquire a future first, he can keep the roster cost controlled better than pretty much every other team. He is gaining an extra 5th year on every first he acquires. It might not sound like a big deal, but when that player is on that 5th year option vs a full extension, that is a decent amount of savings. It's at least a mid-level vet starter ($10M or so) for that year. So if he was somehow able to pull off another trade back, that would be at least 2 extra 5th year options. So even if they had to start paying Fields $40-50M, they would at least have some cushion with so many of their starters on rookie deals. In 2026, Fields would be on his 1st year of an extension, and the Bears could have at least 30 key contributors on rookie deals. That's crazy to think of really.
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It's almost like we already traded up to #10 from the 30s. Also, the way Poles has drafted with guys like Stevenson and Dexter this year and Gordon and Brisker last year. He really seems like he is a value/BPA guy, which would lead me to believe he would be more inclined to trade back and accumulate capital and more darts to throw at the board. If he keeps drafting like he has, and they can gain a 2nd (or two) by trading back, I think he will do it.
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So looking at cap space and draft capital this offseason. The Bears are in such a rare position, it may be almost unprecedented. The team has the #1 pick, potentially a second top 10 pick, and over $60M in cap space. Right now, there are 8 teams who are already over the cap with their 2024 contracts. The Saints are in one of the worst positions I have seen a team in, in a long time. They are going to have to make post-June 1 cuts just to field a team and sign their rookies. These teams have no chance of signing anything but vet minimum deals: Saints - $87M over the cap/ 43 players Bills - $43M over the cap/ 44 players Dolphins - $41M over the cap/ 37 players Chargers - $35M over the cap/ 37 players These teams may have room for 1 mid to low end free agent after some cuts and restructures: Broncos - $18M over the cap/ 44 players Cowboys - $16M over the cap/ 48 players Browns - $13M over the cap/ 45 players Steelers - $7M over the cap/ 43 players There are 3 teams under $10M in cap space, so they will need to restructure to sign their rookies and a few FAs. They might have room for 1-2 mid level guys or older vets on a low deal. 49ers - $1.3M cap space/ 44 players Seahawks - $3M cap space/ 40 players Packers - $7.6M cap space/ 43 players That is 11 teams that are basically out of any major free agent signing or big extensions for their own players that are not already done. They can move some money around and restructure to make space, but for the most part, none of these teams are improving through free agency. In terms of draft capital, there are two teams without a 1st round pick in 2024, CAR and CLE. CLE also doesn't have a 4th rounder. CHI, DEN, SEA, and NYJ do not have 2nd rounders, but CHI obviously has 2x 1st rounders negating the lost 2nd rounder. CLE is over the cap and does not have a first round pick. This team will more than likely regress next year the most "on paper". DEN doesn't have a 2nd rounder and is over the cap. SEA doesn't have a 2nd rounder and has minimal cap. In contrast, the Bears have the #1 pick, the #10 pick and currently $60M in cap space (38 players). The Cardinals have the 4th and 17th pick and have $53M (44 players). They are the only 2 teams with 2x first rounders, and ironically both have over $50M in cap space. Based on offseason resources alone, the Bears have the most Cap+Draft resources in 2024, followed by the Cardinals. The Browns are 32nd, the Saints are 31st, followed by the Broncos, Seahawks, Bills, Dolphins, Chargers, Panthers and Jets. Just based on league parity, these 9 teams will all likely regress in 2024 to some extent, and are very unlikely to improve.