adam

The one thing that is notable about Williams is he is pretty decisive and has a quick drop back. That makes the timing routes look so much smoother. Then he still has the ridiculous passes like these: One concern of mine is him holding the ball with one hand when he is in the pocket, that has led to some fumbles and will need to be cleaned up.

ATL is 25th overall in DVOA, 24th on offense, 19th on defense. This is a game the Bears should win.

The Bears defense now up to 16th in DVOA. The team overall is 23rd with the offense 22nd. So the entire team has trended away from the bottom 5 all year.

Yep, you started with 8 wins, then dropped to 7. Looks like one of those two will be right.

5-8 heading into the CLE game, so they exceeded your prediction by 5 games, Flus is CotY!

Records a little off, but PHI, SF, DET, DAL all locked in, NO, SEA, and CHI still in the hunt, lol.

The attitude stuff does worry me. How will vets handle that persona in an NFL locker room, especially if they lost their beloved QB for him. Time will tell how that all works out. Mahomes is literally Kermit, and that worked out. Mayfield was kind of a punk and he looks good on his 3rd team. Mitch Trubisky drove a Camry.

He literally pulled an A-Rod. I guess he got all butt hurt with them bringing DJ Moore in. He had such a good connection with Fields, the drop off in production is wild.

For Flus, what kind of OC is going to sign up for a job with a HC that would be on the Hot Seat all season? If they retain Flus, it is playoffs or bust next season. If they keep Flus, Getsy is more than likely coming back too then. For Fields, there are even more variables to consider but if you go back to the start of the season, this was his clean slate eval season with a WR1 and improved O-Line. Regardless of the team's record, I think they expected more out of him than they got.

This is surely interesting: He alluded to the fact that he would be part of that process and no decision has been made. If Fields was going to be the guy, it would be stated and known. The fact that he is non-committal about a QB entering his 4th year is telling.

41-80, 463 yds, 51.3%, 5.8 Y/A, 3 TD, 6 INT, 50.2 Passer Rating So worse than his career averages.

So the more this is peeled apart, the more things are stacking up against Fields staying. He hits on a lot of intangibles, which makes him so enticing, but with the game on the line, he actually plays the worst. I don't think two good games at the end of another lost season is going to move the needle that much. I also think Fields knows it too. On that long run down the sideline, he could've easily scored with Scott in front of him making a block, but he decided to slide instead. So for all the Fields fans, Sunday is probably his last game in a Bears uniform at Soldier Field.

Yeah for sure, and the timing of plays matter too. There is no comparison between Lamar and Justin in the 4th Quarter. Lamar Jackson has a 94.0 Passer Rating with 25 TD, 12 INT in the 4Q for his career, 20th all-time. Justin Fields? 204th out of 214 qualifying QBs with a 60.6, 10 TD, 16 INT. Rex Grossman came in at #205 at 60.4. Trubisky? 126th with a 77.2. Cutler? 66th with a 83.8. It is hard to even quantify how bad that is. There are very few QBs near him that were even long term starters. Trent Dilfer, Gus Frerotte, and Kordell Stewart were the only 3 other QBs under 70.0 who played in 100 games in their career.

One way to look at this is from other team's perspectives. The Bears need Fields to be top 12, otherwise, any other ranking makes him just average or below average, and you don't pay those guys. Based on performance from this season, here are QBs/teams that would not make Fields their starter if they got him for free (Bears cut him): Josh Allen/BUF Dak Prescott/DAL Tua Tagovailoa/MIA Lamar Jackson/BAL Justin Herbert/LAC Jalen Hurts/PHI Patrick Mahomes/KC Jared Goff/DET CJ Stroud/HOU Trevor Lawrence/JAX Joe Burrow/CIN Baker Mayfield/TB Brock Purdy/SF Then there are others that would depend on other factors, but I don't think these teams would switch to Fields if it was just based on current performance: Geno Smith/SEA Matt Stafford/LAR Kirk Cousins/MIN Russell Wilson/DEN Kyler Murray/ARZ That is 18 QBs and I did not include Jordan Love or guys like Watson/Flacco who even CLE would have a hard decision on who they would want today. The fact that you can get thru that many names is concerning. From our perspective, we may not want Goff or Mayfield, but they have played so much better than Fields that it would be hard for me to see those teams starting Fields over those guys.

Sam Darnold was traded for a 2nd, 4th, and 6th. Trey Lance trade got a 4th rounder. So I would assume they would get nothing less than a 3rd rounder and another pick.

I think the 3 collapses are hard to overcome. Last year we said they didn't feel like a 3-win team. This year, we feel like they are better than a 6-win team. That seems to point to inferior coaching. Like I said in another thread, they literally drew up a defensive scheme that made Justin Jones drop into coverage, which got them burnt and ultimately led to a loss. Then they get asked about it, and said "we have to be better" and then do it again for another opponent TD in the next game. Flus literally made that play 11v10. Jones is useless not rushing the passer taking up a blocker, so him dropping back 5 yards does absolutely nothing and it's not like he is going to catch anyone. Then you have the offense an Getsy. Flus is still approving the plays. He knows the play designs, they have to practice these where Tonyan is asked to block out of motion (whiffed completely). They are always cute on 3rd or 4th and short. Always. If it changed, then I would tip my cap to Flus and Getsy, but they have been doing this crap since Week 1.

The biggest concern is the running makes him very high risk, and you can't live and die by the amazing highlight reel scrambles. It's almost like a guy who can do 360 slam dunks, but then can't hit a shot to save his life. You keep seeing the dunks on ESPN, but his box score shows 12 pts on 5-20 shooting.

I know man, this is soo tough, getting 2x blue chippers in one year is such a massive haul when you don't need a QB. You can also trade one for an even bigger haul and still draft a top 10 player. It's a wild position to be in, but the good thing is there is almost no wrong answer.

He has the most INTs in the 4th Quarter in the NFL and he missed 4 games. He has not learned how to close yet in the NFL like he did in college.

Stinger, you are spot on. I like Fields, but I think someone like Williams has a higher ceiling as a passer. I am super high on Justin Fields and he is an NFL starter. If you had to break down his overall game where 2/3 of the grade was as a passer, and 1/3 as a runner, what would that look like? For me I would give him a 70 for a passer, not great, but not the worst, probably slightly below average. Then as a runner, I would give him a 92, with the only knocks being the sacks and fumbles. (70x.66 +92x.33)= 76.6. If you figure the top 10 QBs would grade out over 85, then the next 10 between 75-84, Fields would be near the bottom of that second 10. Say 18th. He is 22nd in QBR and 22nd in ELO, so I think that assessment is pretty solid. So the question becomes is Fields worth a 2nd contract that would pay him over $40M a year over drafting a QB, then using that cap space to sign a free agent for 4 years? For Williams, he displays things on tape that a lot of QB prospects don't, which projects him towards being a top 10 passer. Now that is not a guarantee, but the foundation is there once someone like him adjusts to the speed and size of the NFL. Without a 2nd rounder, I think there are a few scenarios where they draft Williams, then either take a WR/TE (Nabers/Odunze/Bowers) with that 2nd first rounder, then go Center in the 3rd. They could recoup a 2nd rounder for Fields (LVR at #44 or ATL at #47) and go Edge or Safety there. Also, they can also bring in an extra free agent without cap issues. I think out of respect for Fields, they wouldn't keep him as a lame duck QB in 2024. I think they move him to a team that is willing to sign him and/or accept the 5th year option.

That dude got shafted.

He is a very good system QB. It looks like he is going to be Kirk Cousins 2.0, so with a great supporting cast, he is going to be very good but is going to play to the level of the opponent's defense. He will struggle against CLE, BAL, MIN, and even CHI.

It is going to be a tough decision, and HUGE one for Poles. Looking back at the Arizona game, it is more of the same. Blame to go around. Penalties and lack of blocking on the O-Line, terrible playcalling on Getsy, zero receivers open, Fields not hitting open guys when they are open. So if you replaced only the QB, the results will be very similar. They are going to have to address all of those. Either Fields is going to have to improve more or they will draft a QB who they believe can do the things he is not doing. This is still an interesting comparison given the context, also consider the OCs for both teams: Leading MVP Candidate: 223.8 y/g, 19 TD, 7 INT, 52.4 y/g, 5 TD, 6 FL (15 games), TD Rate: 1.6, 0.8 T/O Rate Justin Fields: 208.8 y/g, 15 TD, 8 INT, 53.9 y/g, 3 TD, 4 FL (10 games), TD Rate 1.8, 1.2 T/O Rate So Fields is 15 passing yards per game and an INT every 4 games away from playing at a MVP level with Getsy as his OC. Two of Fields INTs came on hail marys and one literally hit the ground and should not have counted anyway. I will say, if Lamar wins MVP, I think the Bears stick with Fields. The comps are too close not too.

I actually thought about the over the middle stuff. I am wondering if the reason we don't see much MoF stuff is because they don't have the WRs to do it. Mooney and Scott are tiny, both drop passes, and fumble. Do you really want quick slants going to those guys? Probably not. So Moore and Kmet are your only reliable targets, and you can't also just send them across the middle on every play. So personnel may have some to do with that. I thought Shaheen was Frankenstein, but Kmet is huge too. If he could just work on his short area quickness and feet. He would be basically guardable.

The season played out kinda crazy too. They lose 4 in a row to start the season, with the last one being the Denver collapse. Then they finally get a win, then the next game Fields gets hurt and they lose. Bagent comes in and wins 2 of 4, then Fields comes back and they lose the collapse against Detroit. Then win 2 straight, then collapse against Cleveland, then the Arizona win. They are 6-5 since the 0-4 start and 4-2 in their last 6 with the 2 losses coming in the collapses. So they were that close to 6 straight wins and an 8-7 record heading into this weekend. Like last year, that was not a 3-win team. This season, they are not a 6-win team. That tells me it's coaching. When Justin Jones is dropping into coverage in back to back games, and both times the defense is gashed on the same concept, that is a problem. If they can add at least one high quality starter via FA, plus add 2-3 blue chippers in the draft, while cutting the dead weight, this roster is going to improve drastically. Last game showed they need WR2, FS, and C, followed by TE2 and Edge2.