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adam

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Everything posted by adam

  1. With Alexander more than likely lined up against Moore, either Claypool or Mooney will have their CB3 covering them. I think Tonyan is going to have a big game, he is either going to get a LB, S, or CB4 on him, seems like a mismatch.
  2. So this is Year 2 for them. They seemed to get a pass for last year, but the record is the record, and Flus is the losing coach in franchise history right now (3-14). Assuming the Bears don't go 14-3, he is going to need a few winning seasons just to get to .500 as a coach. So if the Bears have another losing season, say 7-10, and he goes to 10-24 in his career, does he get a Year 3? For Getsy, the offense has not looked good, they brought in more of his guys (now have Patrick, ESB, Tonyan, and Lewis), added a first round tackle, a true WR1, and made the midseason trade for Claypool (WR2/3). They also cast off Mustipher. So if the offense struggles again, is it Fields or is it Getsy? Watching the QB School videos, there have been some questions about the play design and play calls. So we will see. Hopefully it doesn't come to this, but last year Getsy was a potential HC candidate in the waiting, but I haven't heard much about that this offseason. So for both of them, and probably Alan Williams too (32nd ranked defense), what do the Bears need to do for them to keep their jobs, and what is a fireable offense after this season? For me, Flus is safe at 8 wins (5 win improvement is a lot), but he is on the hot seat with 6-7, and fired by Week 17 with 5 or less wins. Getsy needs to get this offense going, scoring more than 20 pts a game, and becoming a top 20 unit. Anything less and he should be sent packing (get it Williams with Flus have combined to create the worst defense in franchise history, as defensive coaches, that is bad. They need to get this unit out of the cellar and make it no worse than 25th or Williams should be jettisoned to the moon.
  3. I know, that's the crazy thing. Just say he misses one game, he would need 200 passing yards and 62.5 rushing yards a game in 16 games. If he plays in all 17, he would only need 188 passing yards and 59 rushing yards per game to hit those marks. At least on the passing side, the bar is set too low in my opinion. If he can't throw for 3500 yards, in Year 3, with a true WR1, then he never will.
  4. adam

    Guess the player

    The stats don't back it up though. Lewis was a tackling machine but outside of just tackles, Lewis didn't really do anything out of the ordinary. Take TFLs, in 14 seasons Lewis had 99 TFLs, in 13 seasons Urlacher had 138! Lewis had 2 seasons where he had 4 or more sacks, Urlacher had 7. Lewis played 4 more seasons than Urlacher, so his career totals were going to be obviously higher for an entire career for most categories You can't count AP teams or Pro Bowls, because they are popularity contests. Urlacher made the PB and AP1 in 2005 and 2006, then in 2007 he made neither, yet put up better numbers than the previous two years. Lewis made a 95 tackles, 3 sacks, 0 INT - PB and AP1 (2009) Urlacher made 93 tackles, 5 sacks, 5 INTs - no PB or AP (2007) Lewis and Urlacher have the same amount of playoff sacks and INTs (2 each), yet Lewis played in 21 playoff games, Urlacher played in 7. Also, Lewis was on some stacked defenses, Urlacher had to carry the Bears for several years on his own. It is much easier to get tackles when the DL were hogging up the OL for Lewis. That is why his impact stats (INT, Sacks, TFLs) are so low because those take more than just filling a hole. So depending on how you look at it, you could say Lewis was the better Mike, but Urlacher was the better defender.
  5. adam

    2023 Schedule

    I think we lost a few guys to free agency after the Super Bowls, a few of the starters looking to cash in on the team's success. Like in 2007, we moved on from Thomas Jones (for Benson), Alex Brown was replaced by Mark Anderson. Nathan Vasher replaced by Trumaine McBride, and Chris Harris replaced by Adam Archuleta. All of those were arguably downgrades. So not many, but a few. To replace Mustipher with a tackling dummy gains one win, to actually replace him with a league average player is like 2 wins. The LB Corps is the best in the league, and if Stevenson plays league average, the secondary is at least top 10. So if the Edge players produce (Ngaokue), there is no way the team cannot improve.
  6. I honestly think they were just protecting Bagent from getting scooped up by another team. With all the other moves, it sure seemed like it. Now once Jenkins comes back, I wonder what they will do? Cut Peterman? Technically you have Kramer coming back too. So he may be the odd man out and go right to the PS after IR.
  7. Ngaokoue, Walker, Billings, Dexter, Pickens, and Green with Edmunds, Edwards, Stevenson with some improvement from Brisker and Gordon to go with Johnson and Jackson. That is not the 32nd best defense. The "worst" starting player is either Billings or Jones, but both have started for other teams. The defense put the offense in some terrible situations last year. Almost always trailing, bad LoS. On offense, Fields is 800 passing yards from being a top 5 QB and perennial MVP candidate. There are 3 QBs in NFL history to pass for over 2K and run for over 1K. Vick, Jackson, and Fields. Only Jackson has a 3K/1K season, and that is not out of the question for Fields with the addition of Moore, a full offseason with Claypool and a better TE2 in Tonyan. To get those 800 additional yards, Fields would need about 50 more passing yards per game. I think that is attainable. If you go to 3K / 800, Kyler Murray, Wilson, Cunningham, and RG3 join the list where Fields and Vick drop off. Most of these seasons were Pro Bowl appearances, some with MVP votes, and RG3 winning OROY. I am surprised Wilson and Murray didn't get more hype in those years. No QB has ever thrown for over 3200 with 1K rushing yards.
  8. This is a curious situation. Philly is like Georgia Bulldog North. I wonder if some of those coaches with ties to Philly purposely did that so Philly could take him. Seattle took a CB, LVR took and Edge before Carter was picked. Hell ATL took a RB in the top 10 before Carter. So it wasn't just the Bears. However, who else was gonna trade up ahead of PHI? If a team was there, why didn't the Bears take their offer instead? The one move up was weird if they knew the Bears weren't gonna take him.
  9. adam

    Guess the player

    To cap it off, how many players have had 700 solo tackles, 35 sacks, 50 passes defended, and 15 INT in their first 8 seasons? One player. Brian Urlacher. These are the main defender stats, zero cherry picking. This also counts Urlacher's shortened 2004 (missed 7 games).
  10. adam

    Guess the player

    Even wilder, how many players have had 500 solo tackles, 30 sacks, 30 passes defended, 6 INT, and 6 FF in their first 6 seasons? One player. Brian Urlacher. This also counts Urlacher's shortened 2004 (missed 7 games).
  11. adam

    2023 Schedule

    If you look at this roster, the Bears played most of the season with only 3 defensive starters that are currently on the roster. So Week 1 this season will feature 8 new starters on defense, and at least 3 on offense from the end of last season. The offense is going from Claypool as the #1 at the end of the year to Moore, Mooney, Claypool TE goes from just Kmet, to Kmet, Tonyan, and Lewis. RB goes Monty/Evans to Foreman/Homer/Johnson Mustipher is no longer the Center and they added Wright. There literally has been no downgrades.
  12. In Week 13 last season, the Bears had a 19-10 lead in the 4th quarter against GB (the last time they faced each other). Even after a GB TD that made it 19-17, Fields completed a 49 yard pass to Practice Squad WR N'Keal Harry that put the Bears in FG range, but Santos gets a 40-yard FG blocked, and GB goes on to score 11 more points against a Practice Squad level defense to win 28-19. The Bears current defensive starters that didn't play in that game or were not on the team yet include: Ngaokue, Walker, Billings, Edmunds, Edwards, Stevenson, Gordon, Brisker, and Jackson (9 defensive starters). The only two defensive starters that played were Justin Jones and Jaylon Johnson. This is a completely different defense. Then on offense, the Bears scored 19, should've been 22, but that didn't have Moore, Tonyan, Herbert, Foreman, Mooney, Scott, Wright, Davis, Feeney, and Taylor (WR/PR). With ESB, Pettis, and Harry getting targets, and Darryton Evans getting RB2 carries, Fields still finished 20-25, 254 yds, and had 6-71 and 1 TD on the ground for 325 all-purpose yards. The biggest issue was the 2 INTs, one when ESB forgot how to run a route and the 2nd was with 44 seconds, down by 9 (to Pettis). The odds that those throws happen again are unlikely if they are going to Moore and Mooney. Santos also missed an XP which would've made the last drive a potential game tying drive. Even though the Bears held a 4th quarter lead, this game was not one of the 8 decided by one score or less where the Bears went 1-7. Another reason to be optimistic.
  13. This Christian Watson hype is crazy. People make him out to be a legit WR1. Does he have great speed, sure, but otherwise, where are the numbers? The most receptions he had in one game was 6 for 49 yards. He only had 3 games over 50 yards receiving. He was targeted less than Lazard, Jones, Tonyan, and Doubs last year, and only 7 more than the ancient Randall Cobb. Against the Bears, Watson had 3-9 yds, and 3-48 yds, and 1 Rec TD. He did have a 46 yard TD run, but that was when the Bears had traded or shutdown their entire defense. Even with that run, that's 51 yards per game against the Bears. Moore torched the Packers with scrub QBs, and Watson couldn't break 50 yards receiving with a HoF QB?
  14. adam

    Guess the player

    but Ray Lewis was the most dominant LB in that era, how could it possibly be Brian?
  15. adam

    2023 Schedule

    W - GB 8-9, w/ no Rodgers (3-5 on the road last year) W - @TB 8-9, Mayfield (@MIN week prior both teams travel) L - @KC 14-3 W - DEN 5-12, (1-8 on road last year, @MIA the week prior, back to back away for DEN) L - @WAS 8-8-1, w/ Howell at QB (TNF, @PHI week prior, short week, both travel) W - MIN 13-4, unsustainable, roster gutted (mini bye for Bears, MIN plays KC week prior) W - LVR 6-11, (2-7 on road last year, back to back home games for Bears) L - @LAC 10-7, (SNF, play at KC the week before) L - @NO 7-10, (@IND week prior, both teams travel) W - CAR 7-10, no McCaffrey or Moore (TNF, vs IND week prior 325pm SUN) L - @DET 9-8, Goff is still their QB (@LAC week prior, both teams travel) L - @MIN 13-4, unsustainable, roster gutted (MNF, @DEN week prior, both teams travel) BYE W - DET 9-8, Goff is still their QB (@NO week prior, Bears with bye and no travel) W - @CLE 7-10 W - ARZ 4-13, barebones roster tank mode (vs SF week prior) W - ATL 7-10, w/ Ridder at QB (back to back home games for Bears) L - @GB 8-9, w/ no Rodgers (@MIN week prior on SNF) So I relooked the schedule, if the Bears split home and home with divisional teams (3-3), it seems like they can beat DEN, LVR, CAR, ARZ, and ATL at home, and beat TB and CLE on the road. The team with the best record out of all of them is TB at 8-9 and that was with Brady, not Mayfield. They still lose to KC, WAS, LAC, and NO out of the division. That is 10-7 beating only 2 teams with winning records from last year (MIN and DET). Looking at the division games, it does make sense. Bears beat GB Week 1, beat MIN coming off mini-bye, and then DET off their real bye. They lose to DET and MIN in back to back weeks right before their bye (in need of a break), then lose to GB the last game of the season as the Bears rest starters for the Wild Card game. Seeing that only one team can get a bye, the seeding from 2-7 is almost irrelevant anymore. PHI 15-2, SF 13-4, DET 11-6, NO 9-8, DAL 11-6, CHI 10-7, SEA 10-7 NYG 9-8 and WAS 8-9 beat up on each other in packed NFC East, GB and MIN both finish around 7-8 wins, ARZ goes 1-16, CAR goes 3-14 (Bears get 2nd overall pick), LAR goes 4-13, ATL goes 5-12. CHI at DET (Bears win, Goff chokes and throws 4 INTs) SEA at SF (SF wins) DAL at NO (DAL wins) CHI at PHI (Bears win, Jalen Carter extends 2 drives with bone headed penalties, Bears fans rejoice over taking Wright) DAL at SF (SF wins, but Purdy gets hurt) CHI at SF (Bears win against Sam Darnold, Trey Lance becomes a Bears fan, SF looks even dumber for passing on Fields) CHI vs BUF (Bears win, Bills cannot stop Fields, who runs for 200 yards, Santos kicks GW FG, hits upright but goes in, the curse ends, this starts a BUF run of multiple SB losses.)
  16. One last thing Bears fam, the Bears defense was TURRIBLE last year (channeling my inner Charles Barkley). The next best defense (LVR - 31st) was half as bad as the Bears. So if the defense can get to 25th, it will feel like a top 15 defense because just going from 32 to 31 is the same statistical gap than 31 to 26. With 6 new starters, and natural improvement from Gordon and Brisker, it is almost impossible to repeat their futility.
  17. It is comical for me, because they had every opportunity to turn to Love last season after a 3-6 start. Instead, they stuck with Rodgers, who got them all the way to 4-8 (1-2 in next 3 games). People don't realize how bad it was. Rodgers, Mr. Chicago didn't have a 300-yd game, and only had one game over 260 yds (291 in a loss). He had 94 rushing yards, but took 258 yards in losses from sacks. So it's great that he threw for 3695 yds, but his net total yards were 3531 in 17 games. Fields had 3026 in 15 games. Per game averages 207 and 201 respectively. Total TDs, Rodger 27 in 17 games, Fields 25 in 15 games. Rodgers TDs per game: 1.58 vs Fields TDs per game: 1.66. Love couldn't beat Rodgers out or force GB to sit him. If Love was that good, and they didn't put him in over Rodgers, their little douche coach is a wuss.
  18. and if GB loses and Love plays bad, talk about a potential franchise defining moment, he may never recover.
  19. DJ Moore vs GB: 2020-12-19 > 6-131 yds 2019-11-10 > 9-120 yds Averaging 7.5 receptions and 125 yards a game as the WR1 (both games in GB), not bad. Khalil Herbert in his only start against GB: 19-97 yds, 5.1 YPC, 1 TD, 2 rec, 15 yds. If Herbert is over 100 total yards on offense and Moore is over 100 yards receiving, I like our chances.
  20. Fields' stats really got pounded by his rookie year with Nagy. That has skewed a lot of his career numbers and brought him down to Blaine Gabbert levels, when he should not even be used in the same sentence as Gabbert. There are several comps for Fields, but some easy ones are when Year 3 QBs get their true WR1s. In these cases, you can see the meteoric jump in stats. To make it easy, I just used QBR, which uses a collection of the normal stats to come up with one number. As you can see below, Josh Allen was a league average QB before Diggs arrived, Hurts was slightly above average before he got Brown, and Tua was slightly above league average before Hill came to town. Looking at their seasons, Fields with Nagy was only slightly worse than Hurts his rookie year, yet Fields was the best 2nd year QB out of the 4. So it seems like a logical guess that Fields will improve no worse than the lowest improvement from Year 2 to 3 (Hurts' at +13.7), which would be Fields at a 70 QBR (which would be a top 5 QB). QBR Allen 49.8 > 49.4 > 76.6 (+26.2) Hurts 33.8 > 54.6 > 68.3 (+13.7) Tua 44.8 > 55.7 > 70.6 (+14.9) Fields 31.4 > 56.3 > ??? The narrative for Fields is really solely based on cumulative numbers that include his year with Nagy, running for his life. Just by removing the Cleveland game where it seemed like Nagy was purposely sabotaging Fields, his average numbers go up across the board. He was sacked 36 times in 2021, and 25% of those came in the Cleveland game where he completed only 6 passes. 9 sacks, 6 completions! Almost impossible. His Comp% goes from 58.9% to 61.2% without that game. If you start his season with the Detroit game the following week, he averaged 192 passing yards a game the rest of the season (with a BAL game where he had 79 passing yards).
  21. Record - 9-8 (I have been flipping flopping on this from 7 to 11 wins, but will stick with something in the middle. A few facts to consider, the Bears were 1-7 in one score games last year and lost a few in brutal fashion. If those games even out, the Bears are 6-10. Considering they have an easier schedule this year, that ups it to 7 wins. Then consider offensive improvement (Moore, Wright, etc) for 1 game, and defensive improvement (6 new starters) for 1 game, and you can get to 9 easily. Without any other factors considered, they are 9-8. MVP - Fields (Even if he improves as a passer due to Moore +, his legs are what make him special. That dual threat is hard for any other player to beat for MVP) OPOY - Moore (Probably should be Fields too, but I will go with Moore here with over 1K yards and a ton of YAC. He is going to be Fields' EZ Button) DPOY - Edmunds (I was thinking Brisker or Johnson too, but if the defense as a whole is better, Edmunds will be a huge part. His size is going to cut down on those gimme seam passes and shallow crossers that shredded the defense the last few years). ROY - Stevenson (He has the makings of a top pairing CB if he can cut down on penalties; he will lead the team in INTs). Comeback - Claypool (Pretty hard not to improve on what he did last year, but I think he gets more than double that. Moore is going to take a ton of attention away from Claypool, leaving him with CB2 or CB3 without overhead cover.) What are your predictions for: Record - MVP - OPOY - DPOY - ROY - Comeback -
  22. We made it! Week 1 is almost here. Are you ready for some football. This is one of those polarizing games where a win could propel the Bears to something big, but a loss at home to the Packer without Rodgers will be a tough loss to recover from. The Packers are 0-5 in any game where Love had 5 or more passing attempts. In the two games where he had substantial playing time, they lost both and he put up these total numbers: Totals - 29-51, 324 yds, 56.8%, 6.4 Y/A, 2 TD, 3 INT One game average - 14.5-25.5, 162 yds, 56.8%, 6.4 Y/A, 1 TD, 1.5 INT I could care less about preseason or how he has looked in practice. The above stats are who he is until he shows that he is not. If that is the QB the Bears are playing next Sunday, it's a Bears win. If he plays substantially better, then the Bears will be in a firefight. My initial projection is Bears 24-17. Both teams get at least 2 TDs, Bears get a 3rd that ultimately decides the game. The Packers have the ball with a chance to tie and turnover on downs to seal it.
  23. So I was looking up some stats and found a pretty wild one. There is one player in NFL history to have 5 INTs, 15 sacks, 20 PDs, and over 300 solo tackles in his first 3 seasons. He had 6 INTs, 18.5 sacks, 20 PDs, 306 solo tackles, plus 44 TFLs, 4 FF, and 5 FR, and 1 TD in his first 3 years. I was honestly shocked that he was the only player to achieve this, and is still the only player to date. Since TFLs were not recorded properly until the 2000s, I didn't use that in the search, but that would've made it even more inclusive of a club. Just off the top of your head, who do you think it would be?
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