adam

It comes down to roster construction. It would be nice to have Jones as a backup, but that's a luxury, especially with Kiran on the roster. I could be wrong but it feels like Poles would want to get max value for Jones if he was planning on not extending him.

I still think if they go LT, they are trading Jones either on draft day or at the deadline. I might be wrong but with how the high draft picks work, they almost always have to be a Day 1 starter in some capacity.

Zaccheaus for PR and Duvernay for both PR/KR?

It is interesting looking at the mock drafts this year as the Bears have no real consensus player pick like in previous years. However, OL is selected in over 50% of the picks. OL, Edge, and RB are the 3 highest position groups. About 56% is OL, 19% Edge, 18% RB, and DT at 7%. Will Campbell - 24.5% Kelvin Banks - 21.5% Ashton Jeanty - 11.3% Others - 42.7% Mykel Williams Omarion Hampton Josh Simmons James Pearce Jr So it seems that at #10, the Bears will more than likely pick an OL, Edge, or RB.

I know they picked the Bears last year because of Caleb's rookie year, but this year would've been so much better to see Johnson at work with his new staff and the revamped roster.

One thing I noticed with these mock draft simulators, there is a huge difference depending on how many QBs go in the top 10, with some having Dart go in the top 10 (Kiper has him going to NO at #9). So the draft looks completely different if 3 QBs go in the top 10.

Ok, elite is the wrong word, more like "true starters". Moore was 9th amongst WR's last season in receptions in one of the worst offenses in the NFL. People refer to George Pickens as a WR1, yet he only had 5 more receptions and the same amount of TDs than Odunze, who was WR3 on one of the worst offenses in the NFL. So unless you think you need to upgrade over Moore or Odunze, then you probably shouldn't look to go WR anytime in the first couple of rounds.

This is honestly the big question. The biggest weakness today is still Edge I think. There is no one after Kmet. RB is under average with Swift. I think Zaccheaus is enough at WR. Rarely do you see a team with 3 elite WRs. I think you have to get an Edge, DT, RB, and TE in the draft.

Very true, I am just saying at #10, it would be a luxury to pick a LT if you were going to keep Jones AND think Kiran could be his replacement. Kiran becomes a wasted 3rd rounder if he doesn't start at some point. Poles already whiffed on Velus and Pickens, Kiran might be another one.

I still think drafting Kiran that early was to replace Jones, knowing he would sit a year. So unless you can get the top OT and he is a surefire upgrade at LT, then you almost have to address another position at 10. That is why I think TE (Warren only), WR, RB (Jeanty only), DT, and Edge are all on the table at 10. For whatever reason, I don't think Poles will use 10 on the OL after committing so many resources to it with Thuney, Dalman, and Jackson. If he trades down, sure, but at 10, he is going to want to get a Day 1 starter. The other crazy option I was thinking about was trading Braxton during the draft, or at the trading deadline (Poles seems to do that instead of the comp picks). If that is the plan for Jones, then I can see #10 as the best LT. That may be the only way I can see it right now.

So the Bears have 6 2025 starters that are in the last year of their contracts. Additionally, I believe there are two players under contract for 2026 that will be likely cap casualties. That makes 8 holes for 2026. You can't fix everything in FA, and in one draft, so knowing Poles, he is looking at this now. First are the cut candidates, I think Swift and Edmunds will be gone, that would save $22.5M against the cap for 2026 with limited dead cap. RB - Swift - cut candidate, $7.5M cap savings, $1.3M Dead LB - Edmunds - cut candidate, $15M cap savings, $2.4M Dead The other 6 are listed here: DB - Gordon? DT - Billings? LB - Edwards? OT - Jones? S - Brisker? S- Byard? What stands out to me is that out of the 8 players, 6 are on defense with 5 of the potential back 7 being new players in 2026. I feel like Gordon has the highest probability of an extension. Billings seems like another one depending on his health in 2025. Either way, right now those are holes. Considering it is really hard to get starters after the 3rd round, the Bears almost have to address 3 of these positions with the first 4 picks. Ultimately, the Bears may take a Safety or ILB in the top 4 picks, which is normally not ideal, but to keep the roster balanced, it seems like Poles has to at least consider the 2026 roster in the 2025 draft. Thoughts?

I know trades are hard, but if THE guy is not there at 10, it feels like a trade is a real possibility. With 2x 2nds, I could also see a trade back to the later half of the 2nd with a team wanting to move up early on Day 2. The hauls for moving back from 10 AND moving down from 39 is crazy. I keep getting SEA 18 and 50 to move back from 10. Then to move back from 39, I got HOU 58 and 79. So the updated picks look like: 1 - 18 2 - 41, 50, 58 3 - 72, 79 5 - 148 7 - 233, 240 4 picks in the first two rounds would be amazing, and 6 in the top 80?

5 sacks in 719 snaps, and 2 in 724 in 2023. So a 2-yr total of 7 sacks in 1443 snaps, about double the rate of our new IOL guys. However, OTs tend it give up more sacks because they are facing off against the elite pass rushers. The best OTs allows 0-2 sacks in 1K snaps. The average guys about 3-5, so Jones is at the backhalf of that range.

I like it, DLine would be insane.

The more this is discussed, and I know you need a partner, but a trade down seems like the best option. So I guess the question becomes, if there is a trade down scenario to say SEA at #18 with #50 for 10, which players are you taking instead of that trade down scenario? If the Bears get to 10 and Campbell is there AND SEA wants to trade, do you take Campbell or the trade? Which players would you take over the trade, assuming at least that Carter and Hunter are the two non-QBs that are gone for sure? Is Jeanty worth it? Warren? Banks? Which one player is worth sticking with 10 for?

So Banks over Jones? I don't know much about him, how much of an upgrade would that be?

How do you quantify how much of an upgrade the new acquisitions on the OLine will be? Well, I looked at a few stats and this one stood out: Sack Rate (Last 2 seasons) Thuney - Sack Rate 0.16% 4 allowed in 2500 snaps Dalman - Sack Rate 0.27% 4 allowed in 1486 snaps Jackson - Sack Rate 0.17% 2 allowed in 1148 snaps These 3 players allowed only 10 Sacks allowed in 5,134 snaps, a 0.19% sack rate. The 3 players they are replacing and what they did in 2024: Jenkins 4 / 495 Pryor 7 / 659 Shelton 3 / 743 These 3 players allowed 14 Sacks in 1,897 snaps, a 0.73% sack rate, close to 4x more sacks over the same amount of snaps. Caleb was sacked 68 times last year, I would not be surprised if that number is cut in half for 2025, maybe more.

Which one? After Carter, it seems like a crapshoot between Williams, Stewart, Walker, Green, and Pearce. That was the challenge for me. Which one would you choose, and where would they rank amongst the guys above? My order is Jeanty, Warren, McMillan, Johnson, Membou. It just feels like everyone is too low on Jones and are not considering Amegadjie, who just needs better coaching. So if feels like OL at #10 would be a waste as you need an immediate starter there. Jeanty is a no-brainer, and Warren is a close second as he would compliment Kmet well.

I know OL should always be considered, but Poles did draft Amegadjie with a 3rd round pick last year. Knowing his rookie year was going to basically be a red shirt season coming back from injury, he should still be penciled in as the primary backup OT and as the potential replacement for Jones if they don't extend him. If that is the plan, I doubt the Bears draft an OL in the first 3 picks, but I could be wrong.

One of these guys will be there at 10, pick your guy in the poll, then post them 1-5 in the comments for your order.

The Bears last 3 first-round picks are all on offense. I know that is not the highest priority, but to have a balanced roster, that probably needs to even out over time. Like if they have equal grades on two different players, one offense, one defense, I would not be surprised if they went defense at #10 (or after a trade back).

More than likely WR4 and possibly Punt Returner. I think he replaces Carter more than anyone else.

Taking the 4 most likely: 1. McMillan - immediate starter at WR3 2. Membou - competes with Jones for starting LT, if not, backup OT 3. Warren - TE2 4. Stewart - Edge2 or Edge3, Edge rotation

Actually walking thru the teams and their needs, this seems like the most realistic path, leaving the Bears will a few players to choose from at 10: 1. Ward, QB (TEN) - picking a QB 2. Hunter, CB (CLE) - Already have Garrett locked up, can't afford to use on Carter 3. Carter, Edge (NYG) - Carter falls to them 4. Campbell, OL (NE) - Need OL 5. Graham, DL (JAX) - Need DL 6. Jeanty, RB (LVR) - Need RB 7. Sanders, QB (NYJ) - Even with the Fields signing, this would actually make sense for Sanders to sit a year. 8. Walker, Edge (CAR) - Need Edge or TE 9. Johnson, CB (NO) - Need CBs 10. McMillan/Membou/Warren/Stewart? If there is no true elite player left, trading down looks like an option for a team looking for a QB.