adam

I am going off of Conf Record because that is the only visible tie breaker. The Bears are 2-0 in the Conf, TB is 4-1, and GB is 2-2. Since there are multiple teams tied, I do believe the Bears lose out right now due to common games against GB, but I can't find a tiebreaker where TB would pass the Bears because they have no common games yet and the Bears have the better conference record. So 6th seed straight up with conference record, might slip to 7th seed due to common games, but I don't see the tie breaker that would allow TB to jump the Bears.

Which means they had a ton of penalties between Week 1 and 5.

Did you know that the Bears are the 3rd highest penalized team thru 6 weeks? 47 penalties, the most in the NFL is Dallas with 49. The Bears have to clean that up. DET has the 2nd least at 26. The league average is 37. On the flip side, the Bears have the least missed tackles in the NFL, at 22. The next closest is PIT with 24. LVR has 62 missed tackles, wow. For the Commanders game, one perspective to consider. The Bears have 13 takeaways, tied for 2nd with MIN (GB is 1st with 17). The Commanders only have 4 and a league low 1 INT. That is a huge advantage. The Commanders have only kicked 27.3% of their punts inside the 20, the Bears have kicked 38.5% inside the 20, so the Bears should have a net advantage in the field position game when punting.

HOU at GB and DET at MIN. If HOU and MIN both win, GB would be 4-3 and DET would be 4-2, sliding the Bears up to 2nd place in the Division lol. Both games should be super close. I wonder how DET will to without Hutchinson, he was playing at a DPOY level before breaking his leg. That is hard to replace with a backup Edge. They should be a lesser team for the rest of the season at least on the defensive side of the ball. HOU's defense allows a league low 53.3% comp % against and only 163 yards passing per game (4th). They are 13th against the run. GB is 2nd in rushing HOU and MIN should be favored, and should win unless the officials get involved or there is a catastrophic turnover.

With usage, I still think Herbert is on the block. He has had 6 snaps in the last 3 weeks total. Scott, who is even farther down the depth chart than Herbert, has 8 snaps in the last 3 weeks. Velus has not had an offensive snap since Week 1. Herbert does have 64 snaps on ST, but that is really it for him. Scott doesn't even play on Special Teams. So Carter sort of replaces both Scott and Velus. I guess they can keep Herbert around for kickoffs, but thats about it. Those 3, and now Davis, have to be "available". Davis is now a $10M backup Guard, while Herbert, Scott, and Velus are just eating up roster spots. There are 2 more games before the trading deadline. I am assuming Poles would only be a buyer if they win the next two and are sitting at 6-2 and a game with NE coming up. Anyone they bring in could technically miss that game to get up to speed for the GB game the following week. I think Poles would be open to moving Davis, Herbert, Scott, or Velus regardless of record at the deadline as losing these guys would have minimal effect on the team for the remainder of the season.

I wonder what positions are easier to adapt to after a trade? I would have to assume DT is the easiest as you basically just need to know your gap and whether you are pass rushing or run defending. The secondary seems tough because you have so many different assignments based on the coverage. Then for WRs, you have the option routes. So if they add anyone, it might be depth on the DLine, DT or Edge. O-Line is possible too, especially depth-wise. What's crazy is, what is the weakest spot on the roster as a starter? Edge 2 right? For O-Line, Center or RG? Those 3 probably tied for the worst. Outside of that though, does this team even have a weakness? WRs, LBs and RBs are stacked, secondary looked strong even with a few backups in. TEs seem ok, thought Everett has been underwhelming and Lewis is really on the roster for leadership.

Daniels, who has won multiple rookie and offense player of the week honors, getting MVP consideration and supposedly already a lock for OROY: 1,404 yds passing, 6 passing TDs against the 20th Pressure Rate and the 16th Deep%. Williams has 1,317 yds, 9 TD against the 5th highest Pressure Rate and who is 3rd in Deep%.

Tomlin said in the press conference that Fields has done "a good job" but to win in the league, you have to be great. Even though they are 4-2, with how that defense has been playing, they could easily be undefeated. Their two losses are by 3 pts each.

Week 7 Power Rankings ESPN: #16 NFL.com: #13 Yahoo: #14 33rd Team: 13th PFF: 12th For the first time in a long time, these feel about right. I can see a case for us to be as high as 12th or as low as 16th. It just feels weird to be in the top half of the league in all power rankings. It is crazy to think we had to endure a 5-21 run to get to 9-5 in the last 14 (10-7 in last 17). If the arrow stays at the same rate, the Bears should consistently win 2 of 3 for the remainder of the season.

and the passing chart with 70% of his passes to the right. They have also cut the field in half for him.

Here are two of the plays, Etienne's fumble that was overturned as incomplete, and Olave's that was allowed to be returned for a TD. They don't have the All-22 for the Saints game up yet, so it is harder to see, but the first defender actually knocks the ball out before the 2nd defender hits Olave. I just don't understand how Etienne somehow didn't make a football move, yet he was facing Lawrence when he caught the ball, turned 180 and a 3rd step right when Edmunds hits the ball. However, the ball doesn't shoot out immediately, it actually slides out as he is falling down. On Olave's it actually comes out quicker. I honestly believe they got both calls wrong. Olave's should've been an incomplete and Etienne's should've been a fumble, just based on the player movements and how long they actually possessed the ball before fumbling. Untitled video (18).mp4

They technically only left a few hours later than they have in the past few years. They normally leave on Thursday and arrive on Friday for London games. I don't think that was the issue. They are just a poorly coached team. Bigsby had been dominating and they still gave Etienne and Johnson carries over him. They had 8 penalties for 43 yards compared to the Bears had 2 for 10 and 1 of the penalties was on the opening kickoff.

Due to the Hutchinson injury, I am sure Detroit is looking for an Edge. The Bears need to get someone like Maxx Crosby or Trey Hendrickson because it would put the defense over the top, but also to prevent the Lions from adding them. Some other options are Chase Young (NO - reunite with Sweat), Josh Allen (JAX-the Bears just saw him firsthand), or Brian Burns (who Poles wanted in the CAR trade initially). With the PIT pick coming, they can safely give up a 4th-6th knowing they would get one from PIT.

According to PFF, these are the lowest guys with the worst grades according to PFF (with 50+ snaps): Cowart, DL - 47.9 with 60 snaps Booker, Edge - 53.1 with 89 snaps Williams, DL - 57.7 with 109 snaps Everett, TE - 46.0 with 149 snaps Lewis, TE - 50.4 with 89 snaps Carter, WR - 53.4 with 124 snaps Davis, OG - 53.6 with 142 snaps By snap count: TE - 238 snaps below 51.0 DL - 169 snaps below 58.0 OG - 142 snaps below 54.0 WR - 124 snaps below 54.0 Surprisingly, backup TE is the biggest need based on snap count. Then DT, then OG. Honestly, I could see the Bears picking up a DT, Edge, OG, or WR. I don't think they will fix TE even though the backup options are underperforming.

Wilson is still a decent passer, and even his worst passing performance is an above average day for Fields. It's the escapability and intangibles where Fields shines. However, if Wilson can improve their passing game, that is going to be a net positive for the team. The current offense is not sustainable and if not for some terrible opponents, they would be lucky to have 1 or 2 wins. In their first 3 wins, they held opponents to 10 and under. They are 0-2 when the opponent scores 17 pts or more. That team is not QB dependent.

<insert eyeballs> he had the 2nd most snaps for a DT, duo with Payne. Now the Commanders have to use Phidarian Mathis or rookie Newton (who has looked terrible). Both of guys are playing below replacement level players, so this is a huge loss for the WAS defense.

CAR is currently 4th, but tied with 3 other teams at 1-5. So they would pick 3rd in the 2nd round, currently pick #35. The Bears are currently pick #24 as WC2, 6th Seed. In the 2nd, that is pick #56. So if the season ended today, the Bears would have the 24th, 35th, and 56th pick in the 2025 draft. Obviously things can change, but I don't foresee the Bears getting a pick lower than 18, so pick 50 in the 2nd seems like the lowest there. I can't see CAR breaking out of the bottom 5, so that 2nd rounder is going to be great for the Bears. Fill the trenches.

From the original projected bottom 10, MIN is the only team completely blowing away projections. On the flip side, JAX has completely underperformed thru 6 weeks. 1. NYG (1-3 wins) 2-4 - playing slightly better than expected 2. LVR (1-3 wins) 2-4 - playing slightly better than expected 3. CAR (2-4 wins) 1-5 - right on track 4. NE (2-4 wins) 1-5 - right on track 5. MIN (2-4 wins) 5-0 - exceeding projections by 1000% 6. TEN (4-6 wins) 1-4 - right on track 7. ARZ (4-6 wins) 2-4 - right on track 8. SEA (5-7 wins) 3-3 - playing slightly better than expected 9. IND (5-7 wins) 3-3 - playing slightly better than expected 10. CLE (6-8 wins) 1-5 - playing worse than expected JAX 1-5 replaces MIN in bottom 10 LAR 1-4 replaces SEA in bottom 10 NO 2-4 replaces IND in bottom 10 CIN 2-4 - 11th NYJ 2-4 - 12th

Bears now 4-2 at the bye. The next 3 games are huge before the gauntlet of death starts with GB in Week 11. Week 8 - @ WAS 4-2 (19th - Sagarin Ratings) / 12th DVOA / 8th EPA/P - AVG Rating=13th (DraftKings have Bears -2) Week 9 - @ ARZ 2-4 (23rd - Sagarin Ratings) / 22nd DVOA / 24th EPA/P - AVG Rating=23rd (DraftKings have Bears -1.5) Week 10 - vs NE 1-5 (30th - Sagarin Ratings) / 29th DVOA / 30th EPA/P - AVG Rating=30th (DraftKings have Bears -5.5) The Bears are currently favored in the next 3 games and based on all metrics are the best overall team. WAS's offense is the only elite unit the Bears will face in the next 3 games. WAS defense is 28th. 2-1 or 3-0 should be the outcome of these games and the Bears should go into the GB game at 6-3 or 7-2. MIN x2 (hard to gauge these games, but they should be close, especially if Bears offense continues to improve) W / L GB x2 (always a challenge, but I feel much better about this matchup than before) W / L DET x2 (Without Hutchinson, this defense is nowhere near as intimidating, feels like splitting at a minimum here) W / L SF (Depends on injuries but in SF, I will give it to the 49ers) - L SEA (This feels like a win, especially at home and not having to travel to the PNW). W I am counting 4-4 thru the gauntlet for a 10-7 or 11-6 record depending on how the next 3 games go. That record should get at least a WC spot.

FML:

The @ChicagoBears current streak of 12 games holding an opponent to 21 pts or less dating back to last year is tied for the 9th longest streak since the SB era. There have only been 3 teams in the last 25 years to have a longer streak: 00-01 PHI - 17 games 19-20 BAL - 13 games 07-08 TEN - 13 games Bears Team Record: 16 games from 1993-09-12 to 1994-09-04 It is going to be super challenging to keep this streak going, but 12 games is already in some pretty rare air.

Team Ratings thru 6 weeks: DVOA - 17th (OFF-24th, DEF-6th, ST-12th) Sagarin Ratings - 10th EPA/Diff - 9th (OFF-21st, DEF-2nd) PFF Team Grades - 12th (OFF-22nd, DEF-3rd, ST-25th) Pts Differential - 3rd Some crazy underlying numbers for the Bears team as a whole. Between 9th and 17th with the advanced metrics, average of 12th, which feels about right to me. If you remove the first two weeks (oldest games), they are basically top 5 in every category.

The Keenan Effect - Bears are 4-0 when he plays and 0-2 when he is out. Could be the opponents, but the offense really popped when he got back in the lineup after missing the 2 games.

He is on the Adam Rank Podcast every week, lol. So we get to see him talk about the game. Feels kind of weird now talking weekly to the guy who is either a healthy scratch or dresses but never sees the field. Scott has dressed in every game since Week 2 and has a total of 13 snaps. In comparison, Carter has 124. You would think that Scott would be used in those situations, but I guess he showed last year that if he is thrown the ball, he can't catch it anyway. It is hard for me to believe that him and Mooney are the same size. Whatever it is, Mooney looks taller and stronger.

The teams can choose their bye weeks? I thought this was all done by computers and schedule makers?