adam

I almost think of it the opposite way. Waldron has had 3 weeks with a rookie QB and what looks like a suboptimal O-Line. Flus can't do much about the O-Line, so that falls back on someone like Morgan as the position coach or the GM for player acquisition. Poles has also been with the organization the longest and hired everyone and drafted Williams, so all of their performances fall back on him.

So I have always liked QBR as a way to represent QB production over other methods. I just didn't know that it had such a strong correlation to wins. Looking over the first 3 weeks of the season, a team has at least an 80% chance of victory when their QBR is in the top 10. On the flip side, a team has over a 70% chance at a loss if they are in the bottom 10. The outliers are usually super close games. Purdy had the #6 QBR and lost 27-24 this week. In Week 2, Hurts had the #3 QBR and lost 22-21, Burrow lost 26-25, and Jones lost 21-18. 3 losses by 5 pts. In Week 1, Richardson had the #1 QBR and lost 29-27, and Murray had the #4 QBR and lost 34-28. On the low end, the wins came only due to the defenses. In Week 1, Caleb had the 4th lowest QBR, but the Bears still won. All the wins by low QBR QBs came when the defense allowed 20 or less except one game, KC's Week 2 win against CIN 26-25 where Mahomes had the 4th lowest QBR and still won due to the refs. So for Caleb going forward, he needs to improve himself and the good thing is, he has. He had a 23.4, then 20.6, and jumped to a 36.1 in Week 3. If he can keep that trend going and get over the 50.0 mark (average QB), the Bears will be looking good after the bye. However, he needs to make improvements enough to get out of the bottom 10 which usually is a loss indicator.

Also, I don't think it can get any worse than what we have seen. That is a good sign. Some of the other surprise teams are peaking now and will fall back down to earth soon. Caleb is only going to get better. Rome is only going to get better. So if the line can improve and they can give more touches to Roschon and Herbert, the overall operation will improve. It really comes down to 2-3 plays a game that swing the score 10+ points. The offense looks completely different without the dropped passes, that's at least 3 more TDs for Williams in 3 weeks, which would probably equate to 2 more wins.

After 3 weeks, there are 14 teams with a 1-2 record. CLE is technically the last WC team in the AFC. So the Bears could be as low as #4 or as high as #17 thru 3 weeks. Honestly, I am surprised CIN and JAX are 0-3, but CIN did look terrible in joint practices, so it does make sense a little bit. I have no clue how JAX got worse, but they did have a super easy schedule last season that may have masked their issues. Crazy to think the entire QB draft class with Fields may end up not living up to the hype, with Lawrence as the last victim. 1. JAX 0-3 2. TEN 0-3 3. CIN 0-3 ------------ 4. IND 1-2 5. NE 1-2 6. CLE 1-2 7. MIA 1-2 8. CAR 1-2 9. DAL 1-2 10. CHI 1-2 11. NYG 1-2 12. BAL 1-2 13. DEN 1-2 14. LAR 1-2 15. ARZ 1-2 16. SF 1-2 17. ATL 1-2 Also, you don't want to fall to 1-3. The chances of making the playoffs at 1-3 is around 12%. It is worse for the Bears because the other 3 teams in the division all have 2+ wins.

Bears by 20!

Poles always said they go BPA, but that is hard to believe based on some of the picks like Pickens, Velus, Scott, and Taylor. Those were not BPA picks.

Did anyone see Daniels passing chart? Does anyone see a trend?

So on at least two of the runs, a good play fake and boot and half the end zone was wide open for any WR to just run to open space. There was zero threat to pass so the defense has the advantage, especially if you run laterally without any crack back blocks. Also, having Carter block anyone on a run play should be a fireable offense.

So here is the thing, how long does Poles or Eberflus got? Is Poles going to get another coaching hire? Look at it this way: I think 3rd Round picks are the best representation of a GMs skill to evaluate talent, because it is after the top 50 "no brainers" but before the drop off in talent at around 100. 3rd Round picks are #64-100 or so with comp picks. The Bears 3rd Round picks under Poles: Jones Jr, Pickens, Amegadjie That is absolutely gross and should be a fireable offense. Poles fleeced himself. Literally negative contributions to the team. It would've been better for him to just skip these picks than to use them and force these guys onto the 53-man. Amegadjie was injured and has been injured, so he may be good, but you don't use a 3rd Round pick on an injured player with a 4th-5th round grade. Honestly, the NFL grouping of owners, GMs, and for a big group of coaches feels like corporate America. It is one big self licking ice cream cone. VPs just jump between companies because companies require VP experience to become a VP with them. So the same group just changes hands year after year. They cut staff to make margins look good before they leave, then the bottom falls out and the new guy has nowhere to go but up. It feels like the cap in the NFL. One GM mortgages the future, it doesn't work, so he is fired and moves to a new org, then the new GM gets a fresh slate to have bad earnings for a few years while he cleans up the mess to eventually do the same thing. Rinse repeat. I was really excited about Poles, but when you take an honest look at the situation, he continually mismanages everything but one or two no-brainer moves that have made him look like the shrewd GM, when in reality, he just got lucky being in the right place at the right time thanks to Lovie. Please prove me wrong.

Amazing what it looks like when you are only pressured 4 times. Funny enough that 2 of those plays ended up in sacks, yet Cincy decided that they would just rush 4 the rest of the game. Honestly, that makes Caleb's 363 yard game look even better. He was pressured at a ridiculous rate and still threw for more than 65 yards more than Daniels, which if you watched the game, it sounded like he threw for 1000 yards and 22 TDs. Watching the game he has 2 amazing throws to McLaurin. One difference was McLaurin caught the balls. I never doubted Daniels experience or skill, it was his frame and willingness to run. He will get hurt. He is like Johnny Knox at QB. It is just a matter of time in the NFL with that type of build.

If you propagate Williams stats out another game, he should hit 400 yards and 4 TDs against the Rams. If the Bears get a lead early which they have not had, I think they blow the Rams out at home. The Rams are coming off an emotional win at home. I feel like they will be a little burnt out from that game. This will be remembered as the Coleman Shelton revenge game, Bears 31-13.

I have never seen him break a tackle and he runs into the back of his OL all the time and just falls down. Roschon and Herbert to an extent run much more violent and Roschon hits the defenders vs them hitting him. Swift is a 3rd Down back who had massive holes to run thru in Philly. There was a reason why he was available and now on his 3rd team.

Defensive Rankings: HOU - 6th, IND - 17th, TEN - 18th LAR - 31st So the Bears faced two average defenses and one really good defense. The Rams are the worst defense they will have faced thru 4 weeks. The Rams offense is ranked 17th, but that doesn't take into account the injuries to Puka and Kupp, who make up a majority of their offense.

No Kupp. Puka already on IR. So their top 2 receiving options out. Defense should hold them under 20 easily.

Someone made a good point, and I can't remember who said it, but Poles is acquiring OLinemen like himself. They are passive/timid. Outside of Jenkins, every other O-Lineman is a nice guy, and Jenkins was not drafted by Poles. Wright, nice guy, Braxton, nice guy, Shelton, Bates, Davis, all nice guys. We need dawgs on the line. In 2022, Poles used pick #71 on Velus Jones, who was only good because he was 24 playing against 18 year olds. The next pick was Abraham Lucas, a perennial starter for SEA. Pick #77, Bernhard Raimann, OL for IND, full time starter. Go down a few more picks, there is Dylan Parham, starter for LVR. So Poles passed on 3x starting OL to pick an old gadget WR who could not catch a cold. Brilliant. Then when you think there is no way he could do something like that again, in 2023 he drafts Dexter and Stevenson (trading up) with John Michael Schmitz and O'Cryus Torrence on the board. Then he drafted Pickens with Tank Dell and Josh Downs on the board. Come on dude. So we get to 2024, only a few picks and OLine is critical. He goes with Amegadjie with Matt Gonclaves, Christian Haynes, Dominic Puni, and Zak Zinter on the board. Those 4 guys went within the next 11 picks and all have started in 3 games this year. Amegadjie has yet to appear. How bad does the Taylor pick look now after 3 weeks. The picks right after him, Cade Stover, TE for HOU, Malik Mustapha, DB for SF, and Bucky Irving, RB for TB. All have played in 3 games for their respective teams while Taylor has punted worse than a UDFA punter. Oh and Braelon Allen, RB for NYJ went 12 picks after Taylor. The league is all about efficiency. Getting the most of out the cap and your draft capital. Poles is doing neither and it shows on the field.

I know the Fields thing is still fresh, but he is doing nothing different in Pittsburgh than he did in Chicago. He is now more of a game manager and if not for elite defensive efforts the Steelers would not be 3-0. It is funny that people are comparing Fields this year (his 4th) to Williams as a rookie. Don't look at what Fields did in his first 3 games as a rookie. Williams hasn't even played that good yet, and he is lapping Fields' rookie year. Justin Fields, for his career, averages 167 yards per game passing. With Pittsburgh he is averaging 172. His career Y/A is 7.0, in 3 games it's 6.9. In his career he averaged less than 1 passing TD per game. In 3 games, he has 2 passing TDs. His QBR was 46.1 last year and is 46.9 this year. The biggest change in Fields is his INT rate is down, but due to low passing volume, one INT would basically bring his INT% back in line with his career numbers. The one saving grace for Fields with CHI was his running game. He averaged 55 yards with the Bears, that is down to 30 with the Steelers. So technically his offensive output is 20 yards less with PIT than it was with CHI. The biggest difference that is visible is how the QBs look in the 4th quarter. Fields would always turtle in the 4th quarter. In his career Fields has 11 4th Quarter Passing TDs and 14 INTs. His 4Q Passer Rating is 63.8, the worst of any quarter. Williams has 2 TDs and 1 INT in the 4th quarter and an 81.0 Passer Rating in his first 3 games. This should be Williams' floor. How about trailing with under 4 mins to go? Williams has a 104.2 Passer Rating in those situations. Fields Passer Rating drops to 41.1 in those situations. Again, night and day. I really liked Fields, but his limited passing upside, especially late in games was too much of a handcuff. The sentiment in Pittsburgh would be completely different if they were 1-2 and Fields had the same stats.

Half the INTs have not been on Williams: 3rd and 16 - throw to Moore, Moore stumbles and gives DB easy path to the ball. - bad luck 2nd and 15 - almost sacked, scramble drill, DB drops off Odunze and jumps the ball to Kmet. - on Williams 3rd and 4 - late throw to the outside to Carter - on Williams 1st and 10 - throw to Odunze, off his hands - on Odunze The worst one was the late pass to Carter. That can't happen. I doubt he does that again. On the scramble drill one, Odunze and Kmet are too close allowing Odunze's defender to drop off to cover in front of Kmet. He probably should've just thrown that one away, so I will say that one is on him too. On the other two, it's hard to do anything when your receiver stumbles and loses leverage, and the last one is completely on Odunze as it hit him in both hands. That can't end up as an INT. Also, on the strip sack, Waldron thought using Kmet 1v1 on an Edge Rusher was a wise choice on a play action play that takes time to develop. Williams needs to be better ball control there, but that is more on Waldron/Kmet than Williams.

It is a pretty big component though. Swift is 2-3x less effective than Roschon or Herbert on every touch. Swift's negative rushes are putting the Bears in terrible down and distance situations. That leads to punts and turnovers. Go figure. Swift is literally the worst RB in the NFL right now. He has a -2.4 RYOE per carry. So he is producing 2.4 fewer yards than expected PER CARRY. That is 89 lost yards on the ground in 3 games. The worst player since 2018 was Freeman in 2019 with a -1.2 for the season. Swift is currently twice as bad as the least effective RB in the NFL over the past 6+ seasons. If you replaced Swift with a mix of Roschon and Herbert, the Bears are probably 3-0, and that is not even a stretch of the imagination.

Small sample size, but this is pretty wild. Here are the drive outcomes in a drive when an RB got a touch in that drive: Swift - 25 drives TD x2 (8%) FG x6 (24%) Missed FG x1 Punt x12 (48%) INT x3 TOD x1 Roschon - 6 drives TD x2 (33%) Missed FG x1 Punt x1 TOD x1 EOH x1 Swift literally causes bad drives.

Swift can only run with huge holes, like the Kardashians. I don't care about the salary, make him the 3rd Down back. Everett needs to go. I would seriously consider cutting him and going with Carlson or anyone else. Also, Lewis is too predictable and in his first two snaps of the season, he had a false start. Like seriously, you are not the main character. Why are you moving before the snap?

QBR still hates Williams, mainly due to the INTs. He had a 35.8 QBR against the Colts. Richardson had a 17.6 and won. Williams now has a 26.5 QBR for the season, which is only higher than Bryce Young and DeMassage Watson. An interesting find while looking at QBR, Goff is off this year, he is at a 34.1. His last two seasons, he was above 60.

The wrong call, they called forward progress there AFTER the fact, then didn't stop the play where Sermon was clearly stopped at the goalline and allowed that play to continue for multiple seconds where Colts players were able to gang up and push him in. That got both plays wrong and that was the difference in the game. It was literally a 10 pt swing.

Warning Long Post Incoming I am starting to think Poles is just a very average GM that got lucky. Just think if the Bears didn't have the #1 pick in 2023? He picked Eberflus over a bunch of better options. There were all kinds of problems with other staff members and in less than 3 years, they are already on their 2nd OC, DC, RB Coach and a whole bunch of other coaching positions. He got rid of players like Montgomery who signed for less than the Bears paid Swift for and Monty is clearly the better RB. He let other players walk like Daniels only to pay someone like Davis. He replaced Mooney with Tyler Scott. He drafted Gill, to cut him and draft Taylor in the 4th round for Taylor to be worse than Gill thru 3 weeks. It goes on and on. Just take an honest look at his draft picks with Approximate Values, they are not good. Only a few players are exceeding their draft slots, but most are below. 1st - 4th Round Picks: Gordon - Slot Corner (AV - 7) -5 AV from Draft Slot Brisker - Safety (AV - 9) -2 AV from Draft Slot Jones Jr - KR/WR (AV - 3) -5 AV from Draft Slot (how many games did he lose for the Bears?) Wright - RT (AV - 8 ) - 0 AV from Draft Slot Dexter - DT (AV - 2) -2 AV from Draft Slot Stevenson - CB (AV - 6) +2 AV from Draft Slot Pickens - DT (AV - 1) -2 AV from Draft Slot (feels like a waste of a pick at this point) Johnson - RB (AV - 4) +2 AV from Draft Slot Scott - WR (AV - 2) - 0 AV from Draft Slot (it feels like he has dropped more passes than he has targets) -------------- Poles is -12AV for drafted players from 2022-23 from rounds 1-4. That is equivalent to the #3 pick in 2023 or Pick#38 from the 2022 draft playing for 2 years. Braxton Jones is the only player who has completely exceeded his draft slot out of 21 draft picks from 22-23. You need more players to exceed their draft position in order to improve more than the next team (see MIN for example). Poles has used 13% of his draft capital on Punters. In 2024 his 4 picks in rounds 1-4: Williams - QB (no-brainer selection unless you traded down for draft haul and kept Fields) Odunze - WR (no-brainer when ATL picked Penix) Amegadjie - OT (1 of 12 players in the top 75 that have yet to appear in a game for their team) Taylor - P (Currently a bottom 5 punter with a lower Punt Average than Gill had last season) His 2024 FAs: Swift - Waste of money, Everett - lol, Bates, Byard, Pryor, Owens, Ogbongbemiga, Shelton, Pettis, Martin, Cowart, Curhan. Outside of Byard, is any other player even worth the roster spot at this point? That seems like a lot of misses. Maybe Owens? He traded for Keenan Allen, and he has missed 85% of the season after 3 weeks. How about 2023? Nathan Peterman, Dylan Cole, Donta Foreman, Robert Tonyan, Andrew Billings, PJ Walker, Travis Homer, DeMarcus Walker, Tremaine Edmunds, Nate Davis, and TJ Edwards. Billings, Edmunds, and Edwards, and to an extent Walker have worked out as they are still here and productive, but guys like Tonyan and Davis actually lost games for the Bears in 2023 because of how bad they played. He got fleeced on the Claypool trade and won the Sweat trade. So that seems like a break even, which is not good all things considered. So here we are after 3 years of the reset. In free agency, Poles has acquired Billings and Edwards who seem to be the only two players that have exceeded their contract values. Edmunds cap hit is $22M. For this year's cap, Keenan Allen has a $23M cap hit (2nd on team) and has barely played. Nate Davis has the 6th biggest cap hit and is arguably the worst player on the 53-man roster. DeMarcus Walker is 7th and is a rotational DL at best. Swift is 12th and is a waste of cap space and a roster spot. Everett is 13th and is the same. That is $54M of the cap, 24% of the cap for Allen, Davis, Walker, Swift, and Everett. Plus they gave up a 4th for Allen (4 receptions) and a 4th for Bates (38 snaps). Between the coaching choices and lack of draft successes, is it really a surprise that this regime has the record that they currently have going into Year 3?

Look at the top teams: PIT 3-0, Fields and Daniels leading the way SEA 3-0, Waldron leaves SEA and they get better MIN 3-0, Sam Darnold is QB1 and they are undefeated BUF 2-0, Trubisky as Scout QB leading the way PHI 2-1, got Barkley over Bears and fooled Bears into taking Swift. Jalen Carter over Darnell Wright. HOU 2-1, Bears could've drafted Stroud last year LAC 2-1, Harbaugh is their HC, winning without Allen NYJ 2-1, Rodgers still winning NO 2-1 - Lucas Patrick highest graded OL in NFL DET and GB 2-1 still beating the Bears

On the last TD drive, Roschon got 3 touches for 6, 9, and 6 yards. He needs to be the starter.