Everything posted by adam
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Cut Swift after the season?
The entire line played great.
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Cut Swift after the season?
The Bears had their best games in terms of Rushing Success Rate in the last 20 years, and one of the best games by any team this season. It also does contrast with Swift's career as he has typically been a 47% Success Rate Rusher, slightly below the league average of 49%.
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>4K Passing Yards, >25 Passing TD, <10 INT, >500 Rushing Yards before 24 yrs old
The accuracy is the main issue, but he didn't have accuracy issues in college, so I think it is something that can be corrected. I heard Nate Tice say something about the deep incompletion to Rome that was considered "underthrown, that it was the 2nd longest throw in the NFL this season only a half yard shorter than Mahomes hail mary attempt.
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Week 6 Official Game Thread - CHI @ WAS, MNF, Oct 13, 8:15PM CDT, ABC, CHI +4.5
Moore is a baller if he played through that. 😁
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Kmet is a liability
The TEs have really underwhelmed. Kmet is having the worst year of his career (pass catching), and Loveland has barely played as a top 10 pick (which is not good). All the while Tyler Warren leads all TEs in Rec Yards.
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Cut Swift after the season?
I think with Swift it is the consistency. He is just not a consistent player, never has been. He has games like this once or twice a year, then 5-6 games of subpar play. That was his 8th 100 Yard Rushing game in his career (6th year). The most 100-yard games he's had in one season is 2, and in both seasons, the were in back to back games oddly enough. Also, this was the first time he had a 100-yard game without a run of 20 yards or longer, his longest was 19. He has also never had more than 2 games in a row with a YPC at 5.0 or higher. Never 3 games. It is so odd. If the Bears got this Swift weekly, you absolutely keep him, but if he reverts to his old self for the next month, then you have to move onto someone who can do it week in and week out.
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Week 6 Official Game Thread - CHI @ WAS, MNF, Oct 13, 8:15PM CDT, ABC, CHI +4.5
Yeah, it was called in another game, I am looking for the game. Literally the same exact situation, yet the defense was called with a penalty just by touching the LS before his head came up. Found it: Penalty on Miami, DL went in the gap between the LS and OG, but because his head was still down, it was a penalty. (9:30) C.Dicker 58 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-R.Lovato, Holder-J.Scott. PENALTY on MIA-M.Butler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 40 - No Play.
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Week 6 Official Game Thread - CHI @ WAS, MNF, Oct 13, 8:15PM CDT, ABC, CHI +4.5
At 3-2, here is where they stand on offense and defense, it looks like without the turnovers, this team is probably 1-4. The defense needs to improve quickly: Offense - 10th PPG, 14th YPG, 15th YPP, 7th 3D%, 9th Sacks Defense - 27th PPG, 27th YPG, 32nd YPP, 2nd INT, 27th Sacks
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Week 6 Official Game Thread - CHI @ WAS, MNF, Oct 13, 8:15PM CDT, ABC, CHI +4.5
The rule states: "It is illegal to make contact with the long snapper while their head is down immediately following the snap. Contact can occur after the snap is complete and the snapper has lifted their head." If you see the screengrab, he just released the ball and hasn't had a chance to even move his helmet and Payne is already on his back. It actually happened on the GW Kick too.
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>4K Passing Yards, >25 Passing TD, <10 INT, >500 Rushing Yards before 24 yrs old
and it is kinda crazy that his 2 INTs this year are the Maxx Crosby tip and INT, and the deep throw away that was intercepted against DET. Neither of those were typical INTs.
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Year 2 QB QBR Tracker
2nd Year QBs - Career Totals Passing Rk Player GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int TD% Int% Rate Sk Yds Sk% Y/A AY/A ANY/A Y/C Y/G Succ% W L T 4QC GWD Team 1 Bo Nix 23 509 773 65.8 5052 38 16 4.9 2.1 91.9 30 234 3.74 6.5 6.59 6.05 9.9 219.7 43.6 14 9 0 5 5 DEN 2 Caleb Williams 22 449 721 62.3 4720 29 8 4 1.1 90 78 533 9.76 6.5 6.85 5.52 10.5 214.5 40.4 8 14 0 4 3 CHI 3 Jayden Daniels 21 408 604 67.5 4443 32 10 5.3 1.7 99.8 58 291 8.76 7.4 7.67 6.56 10.9 211.6 47.4 14 7 0 4 4 WAS 4 Drake Maye 18 356 517 68.9 3798 25 12 4.8 2.3 96.5 52 284 9.14 7.3 7.27 6.11 10.7 199.9 48.5 7 11 0 0 1 NWE 5 Spencer Rattler 12 269 431 62.4 2534 10 6 2.3 1.4 80.5 33 197 7.11 5.9 5.72 4.89 9.4 194.9 39.4 1 11 0 0 0 NOR 6 Michael Penix 8 159 262 60.7 1943 7 6 2.7 2.3 82.9 11 73 4.03 7.4 6.92 6.37 12.2 194.3 45.8 4 4 0 0 0 ATL
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Week 6 Official Game Thread - CHI @ WAS, MNF, Oct 13, 8:15PM CDT, ABC, CHI +4.5
Didn't even pay attention to this, but the blocked FG should've been a WAS penalty. One-second rule: This protection lasts for the first one second after the ball is snapped. Payne immediately uses Daly's back for leverage. He was not protected for one second.
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Week 6 Official Game Thread - CHI @ WAS, MNF, Oct 13, 8:15PM CDT, ABC, CHI +4.5
PFF Grades Thuney - 88.0 Swift - 85.6 Burden - 81.1 Wright - 75.7 Kmet - 72.1 Williams - 46.1 (lowest graded offensive player) Edwards - 89.0 Byard - 81.2 Edmunds - 80.9 Sweat - 79.5 Jackson - 75.0 Ford - 37.1 (lowest graded player) The most hilarious thing is PFF has Justin Fields graded as a better passer than Caleb, Purdy, Nix, Rodgers, Penix, Jackson, and Geno. Pure comedy.
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12th Man On The Field - Gambling Cartels
ESPN has been around for 45 years now and the first letter in their name is Entertainment. Once the crazy revenue started to come in with the cable TV licensing deals, the money exploded. With money comes greed and fraud. There is no doubt there are things going on that artificial in nature. The league was supposed to have things in place to combat some of the human error, and if anything, it has gotten worse. How do you call a penalty that is not there? It is one thing to miss a call (didn't see it, didn't think it was severe enough, etc), but to call things that are not fouls are game breaking.
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Winning Ugly is this the game that changes the culture?
It really did feel that way. They were waiting until after the outcome of the play to determine whether to throw the flag or not. It was so obvious.
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2025 Schedule/Opponents - Oh boy
So far, so good. Still need to take care of business in the Division with a minimum of 2-2 record in the remaining 4 games. Have now won 2 of the games in the top category with 4 left (NYG, NO, CLE, and CIN). All 4 of those games need to be wins now. 4-0. That leaves PIT and PHI as the top 2 non-Division matchups, and BAL and SF as the other 2. They only need 1 win from these 4 games to win 10, but they could split them. NYG, CLE, NO, CIN = 4-0 BAL and SF (w/o Bosa and Warner) = 1-1, could win both considering injuries PIT and PHI = 0-2, could sneak one 4 DIV Games (MIN, DET, GBx2) = 2-2, need to repay MIN, and then win 1 of 3 vs GB, GB, DET. That gets them to 10 wins.
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>4K Passing Yards, >25 Passing TD, <10 INT, >500 Rushing Yards before 24 yrs old
Caleb now up to 4,720 Passing Yards, 29 TD, 8 INT, and 597 Rushing Yards with 5 games remaining before he turns 24, NO, BAL, CIN, NYG, and MIN. If he averaged 256 Passing Yards over the next 5 games, he would hit 6K before he turned 24. He has a shot at 40 Passing TDs under 24 as well. Super impressive considering how bad the team and coaching staff was last year.
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Has Stevenson turned the corner (no pun intended)
Outside of one bad play, Stevenson's name was not called at all last night. He has really stepped up in the absence of Jaylon. They really need to figure out what they are going to do with CB2 though as Wright has been pretty rough.
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Winning Ugly is this the game that changes the culture?
They won another 25-24 barn burner, and in a way, the WAS game was more on the officials than anything else. Just crazy how many bad calls or missed calls have went against the Bears this season.
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Kmet is a liability
Kmet had 1 reception of 0 yards coming out of the bye following the worst game of his career. He is on pace for his lowest production since his rookie year. His catch rate is half of what it was over the past 2 seasons. He has literally dropped off a cliff and has the 7th highest AAV for TEs, while Loveland has the 24th. Another strike on Poles. To put that many resources into a non-critical position is wild.
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Ryan Poles, Year Four...
This team is now winning in spite of Poles. Mainly because of Johnson and the coaching staff. I hope he has more say in personnel decisions this offseason. Still kind of frustrating to see what Warren is doing in IND, which is almost what Bowers did the year before. The Bears could've had either of them but decided to sign Kmet and draft Loveland instead of either of those two. Poles has not drafted one player who has even made the Pro Bowl. Think about that for a second. With how bad they have been and all those top 75 picks, not one has played well enough to get a Pro Bowl nod. Odunze had a shot, but now is trailing JSN, Puka, Pickens, Egbuka, St Brown, Jefferson, and London in the NFC. Caleb is trailing Stafford, Mayfield, Prescott, Darnold, and Goff, so he probably has a better shot but not realistic for this year unlesss he goes off for a few games. If anyone gets the nod, as a draft pick, it will be either Wright or Caleb, but that's it. I can't think of another draft pick who would even sniff the Pro Bowl or all Pro.
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Week 7 Official Game Thread - NOR @ CHI, Oct 19, 12PM CDT, FOX, CHI -5.5
The Bears just won back-to-back on the road, and 3 in a row. The schedule lightens up a little bit over the next month, but they cannot overlook the Saints on a short week. The Saints are 0-5 when they allow 20+ points and 1-0 when they allow 19 or less. They themselves only have one game where they scored more than 21 and that happened to be the only game their defense held their opponent under 20 (lol). That also happened to be the game where the Giants had 5 turnovers. So as long as the Bears don't have a crazy sloppy game like that, they should win by double digits. The Bears can't lose to a 1-5 team like the Saints at home, they just can't. I think this is one is going to be one of their better games all-around, especially with the running game coming to life. The Saints are worse on the road, allowing 31 and 44, and I think the Bears extend that trend with a 31-17 convincing win on Sunday.
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Week 6 Official Game Thread - CHI @ WAS, MNF, Oct 13, 8:15PM CDT, ABC, CHI +4.5
Yeah, that sucks, he has been grinding, getting rushing attempts, blocking, and getting some dirty yards. I would assume it was the kidney shot he took.
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Year 2 QB QBR Tracker
Week 6 - 1. Maye - 92.6 QBR - 261 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack, and 28 rushing yds. 289 Total Yards. Won. / Season QBR: 72.3, 1522 yards, 10-2 TD-INT, 2 Rush TD (6 games) 2. Williams - 37.2 QBR - 252 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, and -2 rushing yds. 250 Total Yards. Won. / Season QBR: 60.4, 1179 yards, 9-2 TD-INT, 2 Rush TD (5 games) 3. Rattler - 72.1 QBR - 227 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, and 20 rushing yds. 247 Total Yards. Lost. /Season QBR: 60.2, 1217 yds, 6-1 TD-INT, 0 Rush TD (6 games) 4. Penix - 33.3 QBR - 250 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, and -6 rushing yds. 256 Total Yards. Won. / Season QBR: 52.8, 1168 yards, 4-3 TD-INT, 1 Rush TD (5 games) 5. Daniels - 69.6 QBR - 211 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks, and 52 rushing yds. 263 Total Yards. Lost. / Season QBR: 52.5, 875 yards, 7-1 TD-INT, 0 Rush TD (4 games) 6. Nix - 37.2 QBR - 174 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack, and 24 rushing yds. 198 Total Yards. Won. / Season QBR: 51.0, 1277 yards, 9-4 TD-INT, 1 Rush TD (6 games) 7. McCarthy - Always hurt / Season QBR: 22.5 (Last in NFL), 301 yards, 2-3 TD-INT 6 QBs from the same class with a Season QBR over 50.0 is actually unprecedented. The media is not giving this class enough love, it just seems to be a Maye Daniels love fest, and shit on Caleb. The Year 2 QBs were undefeated the last few weeks and now the only ones that lost, lost to other 2nd Year QBs. For how bad NO has been over the last two years, Rattler is actually playing really solid football. There are 4 teams with a current 3-game win streak, 3 of them have Year 2 QBs (NE, CHI, and DEN). Caleb on pace for 4,008 yards (if he plays 17 games), 31 Pass TD, 7 INT, 34 Sacks, and 7 Rush TD. Just say they rested him in Week 18, and he only played 16 games, he would be on pace for 3,773 Passing Yards, 65 yards less than Kramer's team record in the same number of games. Considering the lighter schedule over the next few weeks, I think he has a shot at the record in Week 17.
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Year 2 QB QBR Tracker
One of the flaws of QBR, is that it really penalizes incompletions. It also doesn't punish enough for INTs and FL. So Caleb doesn't benefit from his lack of turnovers. Him and Penix played very similar games: Caleb 37.2 QBR - 17-29, 58.6%, 252 Yds, 8.7 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 Sacks Penix 33.3 QBR - 20-32, 62.5%, 250 Yds, 7.8 Y/A 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 Sacks EPA/P also plays a huge role, and Daniels ended up with a +7.1 EPA total, which equates to +0.20. Caleb had his 2nd best game in terms of EPA +1.1 while his TTT was his lowest of the season at 2.65. I don't like the fact that a QB can run out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage and it just be called a rushing attempt for -3. That is a sack, he can throw at any time behind the LOS. The score keepers have no way to know if it was a designed run, a play action, an RPO, etc. That really saves Daniels because he gets a lot of those which penalize him less than others.