adam

Add two more to the list of 30 visits and Senior Bowl attendees: Ben Sinnott/TE Jha'quan Jackson/WR Add Chop Robinson to 30 visit list. Odds are the Bears select at least one guy from the list of guys with 30 visits and Senior Bowl players: Ben Sinnott/TE Jha'quan Jackson/WR Dylan Laube/RB Elijah Jones/CB Cam Hart/CB Nehemiah Pritchett/CB Sinnott is the only one that makes sense. Jackson would be a returner only, and they already have that with Velus. RB and CB would be wasted picks.

A player can holdout, but can't go back to college as far as I know. They can re-enter the draft the following year.

That is an interesting way to look at it but it is the RB position group, which is completely devalued anyway. Also, Roschon was a backup his entire collegiate career, so he would not compare PFF rating-wise to starters.

Good year not to have 5th -7th round picks: https:/twitter.com/BrendanSugrue/status/1775158080822563292?s=20

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The more I run through these mock drafts, the more I come to these conclusions: 1. If the Bears have a blue chipper at 9, they are not trading back. I think that includes the 3 WRs, Alt, and probably Turner. Unless someone is offering up a 2025 1st and a 2024 2nd, I think they are standing pat. 2. If they do trade back, I think they will trade back at least one more time and pickup a 2025 pick (instead of a 2024). So if they trade back and get back a 2nd, I can see them trading back in the 3rd to pickup a 2025 4th or something like that. 3. I don't think you are finding a starter after the 2nd round this year. So if the Bears don't trade back, besides Williams, #9 may be the only rookie starter.

Hometown: Hinsdale, IL < ? 10th ranked OT according to NFL.com NextGen Stats: https://www.nfl.com/combine/tracker/participants/ol/all-colleges/ PFF Grade of 89.5, but only played in 4 games. Had a 73.5 for a full season in 2022. His average draft position is #58 according to PFF.

Also, Sweat is on a long term deal which equates to a rookie's deal for the 2nd rounder. Bates has two years, and if he plays well, will probably be extended. So the only wild card is Allen but the Bears have an extra 4th. So the Bears don't really lose any roster flexibility with the loss of picks. The Bears had 10 picks last year and Williamson and Bell are gone. So they are already down to 8 after one year. So having 10+ picks feels good, but they can't and won't all play. Some won't make the team or just become PS fodder. The lack of depth of this draft makes using the later round picks on known commodities a brilliant strategy.

Great point, I forget about his positional flexibility. That would make a ton of sense.

Interesting, all 3 CBs with visits also played in the Senior Bowl: RB Dylan Laube, New Hampshire - Senior Bowl CB Elijah Jones, Boston College - Senior Bowl CB Cam Hart, Notre Dame - Senior Bowl CB Nehemiah Pritchett, CB, Auburn - Senior Bowl I hope they only draft one if they are planning to convert to Safety. Otherwise, that seems like an excessive pick.

I didn't realize they selected so many with a private visit. From 2023's draft, the Bears selected 4 players from the Senior Bowl, and 1 from the EW Shrine Game. Here is the breakdown: Wright - Visit + Senior Bowl Dexter - Visit Stevenson - Visit + Senior Bowl Pickens - Senior Bowl Johnson - Senior Bowl Scott - Visit Sewell - NONE Smith - EW Shrine Bell - NONE Williamson - NONE So out of 10 picks, 7 were in one of the categories, and 7 out of 8 if you exclude 7th rounders. I am going to see how many of the planned visits played in one of the games. Both Wright and Stevenson met multiple criteria.

I thought the quotes were about Fields, but they were actually talking about Claypool. I guess it applies to both.

Interesting to see 3 CBs on that list, and no DT or S?

I saw something about the Chiefs trying to re-sign him. Looks like a decent pick up, only 26.

It is so hard man. On one hand, the Bears have to replace Justin Jones and Ngakoue's snaps. Those are holes. WR3, TE3, and even OT to an extent are luxury picks. Just look at the JSN interview from the Super Bowl about the usage of the WR3 in Waldron's offense. On the other hand, if a blue chip player is sitting there at #9, like Alt or Odunze, you have to take them. My reasoning may be different than others, but if you don't expect to ever draft in the top 10 again, why would you trade out of it when you are there? However, if MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Alt are gone in the top 8, I would expect the Bears to trade down. On the top draft scenario, if the Bears move off of 9, I hope they get more than just 77+148 to do so. I want a 2nd round pick, even if it is later. The teams with the best pick slots for a trade for 9 that gives back a 2nd is JAX at 17+48, CIN at 18+49+149+214, and LAR at 19+52+99+217. The LAR one is interesting as that would be a mid-2nd rounder, a late 3rd rounder, and a late 6th rounder. Here is how that would look:

Me either. After Williams, I feel like it is pick your flavor. Penix, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, and to an extent, Nix, provide teams with different options at QB that may fit their scheme better.

I didn't watch many Indiana games.

How do you evaluate a 23-year old QB playing against 18 year olds? He didn't really do anything until he was 22, and then was throwing to Odunze, Polk, and McMillan with a top 20 OT the last two seasons. How many QBs that joined the league at 23 or older (he will be 24 in May) succeeded in the NFL? I think the risk is that they have already developed, that you can't get much more out of them, so unless they are truly elite, then more than likely, they are already where they are going to be at. Since 1967, there have only been 5 QBs drafted in the first round who were 24 or older on opening day of their rookie season, and Penix would end up as the 3rd oldest. 1. Brandon Weeden 28.9 (6-19, 184 YPG) 2. Jim Druckenmiller 25.0 (1-0, 39.8 YPG) < - Michael Penix Jr - 24.3 > 3. Chad Pennington 24.2 (44-37, 200 YPG) 4. Ryan Tannehill 24.1 (81-70, 225 YPG) 5. Akili Smith 24.0 (3-14, 100.5 YPG)

OK, with 4 drafts in, we are starting to see some trends. The draft is sorted by average draft position, Orange boxes are Bears selections, Green is the most common selection with 75% or higher rate for that slot, and Green difference is the lowest variance so far. Just based off 4 drafts, Williams, Daniels, McCarthy, Maye, Harrison, and Alt are the only players always selected before #9. So it feels like the chance of any of those 6 at #9 is very low. Nabers, Turner, Odunze have selections inside and outside of the top 8. So there is a chance that one of them is there at #9.

Thanks Gents, I will post a running tally weekly up until the draft.

OK, if you want to participate, please post your projected top 15 mock draft, with trades. I will then collate the results and post what the consensus of the board looks like before the draft.

Here are the top rated DLine players in RAS+PFF Ranking for each draft position: At 9-14: Laiatu Latu DE UCLA 9.32/11 Byron Murphy II DT Texas 9.20/13 Jared Verse DE Florida State 9.56/17 2nd Rounder (if trade): Braden Fiske DT Florida State 9.89/38 Chop Robinson DE Penn State 9.71/43 Ruke Orhorhoro DT Clemson 9.92/54 Marshawn Kneeland DT W Michigan 9.54/58 At 75: Gabriel Murphy DE UCLA 9.23/81 Michael Hall Jr. DT Ohio State 9.55/104 At 122: Maason Smith DT Louisiana State 8.99/148 Logan Lee DT Iowa 9.15 151 So there are some options, especially if they trade down from #9.

Yeah, I am just saying with the spacing now, Velus doesn't have to worry about someone barreling down at him like a punt, but he will have the spacing of a punt from the kicking team to setup blocks and get up to full speed.

Just looking at the team pre-draft by position groups, it is hard to see how this team won't be better this year. Here is what I am thinking: QB - Right now a downgrade with only Bagent and Rypien, but should be an upgrade in the passing game and a dip in the running game production post-draft. RB - This group basically went from Foreman to Swift, and Roschon in his 2nd year. That is a clear upgrade and should negate any loss to the rushing game from the QB position. TE - The addition of Everett makes this a clear upgrade. TE3 needs to be a blocking TE. WR - Adding Allen and subtracting Mooney is like a double positive here. I don't think WR3 is a huge need with all the other targets on offense to feed. How many targets is WR3 going to get after Moore/Allen/Kmet/Everett/Swift? They would be the 6th option. OL - Bates and Shelton for Whitehair/Patrick is definitely an upgrade. I would still consider upgrades at C, RG, and LT, but all spots serviceable. DT - A downgrade from last year with the loss of Jones DE - A downgrade from last year with the loss of Ngakoue LB - No Change, still a top tier group CB - No Change, still a top tier group S - Big upgrade with Byard and Owens So going into the draft, QB1 is the biggest need followed by Edge, then DT. Then C, RG, LT could use upgrades. Then WR3~4/TE3. So my Need Tiers are: Tier 1 - QB, Edge Tier 2 - DT Tier 3 - C, RG, WR3/4 Tier 4 - LT, TE3 If they can address the Tier 1 and 2 needs, I think the team is really solid going into the season. I am sure they will sign some vet minimum deals to fill out the bottom of the roster which may be able to address some of the lower tier needs. So if they go Edge or DT at #9, I would be fine with that decision. A trade back and still getting and Edge and DT would be awesome too.

The kickoff team can't move until the ball is caught or hits the ground, so if Velus does muff it, he will have a good 3-4 seconds to gather it up before having to worry about someone being in his face.