adam

Out of Thuney, Jones, Billings, Brisker, and Byard, Thuney is probably the one you extend, even if it is just for a 2nd year.

How many fewer sacks can we expect to see in 2025? New coaches, new scheme, revamped O-Line and 2 shiny new weapons. So Williams led the NFL in sacks last year with 68 on 562 passing attempts, which was the highest sack total since David Carr's 68 in 2005. At first I thought, ok, if he can drop by 20%, that would be solid. That would be 14 fewer sacks for a total of 54. That would've still led the league last season without Williams' 68. So it needs to be lower. So the next number is 33%, can he cut his sacks down by a third, so can he cut 23 sacks to go to 45? That would still be top 10 in sacks, but less than Burrow, Darnold, and Daniels. That seems a lot better. Bryce Young went from 62 to 29 from 2023 to 2024. Some of the raw total drop was tied to fewer attempts but he also dropped his Sack% by 3%. If we apply that same concept to Williams and say he cuts down his sack rate from 10.79% to 7%, his total using last year's numbers would be 44. So that 44 to 45 number seems legit and realistic. Now if we use those lost plays and apply them to his percentages, he instantly adds 170 yards of passing and 16 more completions to his numbers from last year without any other change. If Williams can improve on his comp% by 5%, that would add another 28 completions and 300 more yards. Now we are at 4K passing without any other changes than sack reduction and improved comp%. Now add better scheme/coaching + better O-Line + better weapons and I could easily see mid 4K passing for Williams in 2025. Of all the 2024 QB Draft Picks, I think he will lead them in several stats including passing yards.

I honestly think two things hurt Poles in his first few years as a GM, Eberflus and Fields. It seems he was forced to hire Eberflus or pick from a small list with Eberflus being the best option. Then having to figure out if Fields was the real deal or not as quickly as possible, which sort of forced the Claypool trade and overpay for Davis. Since that point, Poles has been about as good as you can be as a GM given the restraints and resources. Williams for Young straight up is a win for the Bears, but then when you think you ended up with 6 starters for that one pick is crazy, all thanks to Lovie and Davis Mills comeback win.

Not necessarily, but they would have to make room under the cap to actually sign them to a contract if that contract total for the year exceeds their available cap space, and once they get to 90 players, they would have to cut someone for the roster spot too. I think they will go into camp first and see what they got before committing any extra money out. Poles like that summer 2nd wave of free agency.

Pickens traded to DAL. Crazy to think of all the drama around him since the draft and he ends up getting traded for a future 3rd round pick. Good value for DAL. PIT basically swapped Pickens for Metcalf and dropped a 2nd to get a 3rd.

Without knowing if the rookies will even amount to anything, that seems like a risky proposition for the Bears at this point, but I could see Kmet moved before Moore, but not any earlier than the trading deadline. Moore is not even in the top 10 for WR AAV, and by next year, his deal will be a bargain AND he is signed for several more years. I would keep him at least thru 2026 or 2027, and that's only if Odunze and Burden rise to their potential.

It starts at the beginning of the new league year in March. However, the number of players doesn't matter; just the top 51 count against the cap for the entire season.

Yes, so there is a total rookie pool and an effective cap hit, which subtracts the bottom players (in the top 51) that count against the cap as they are replaced by the new player. For simple math, just subtract $1M from each's players 2025 cap hit, so only Loveland, Burden, Trapilo, and Turner will be the only ones that count negatively against the cap. All the other players are a wash. Last year if Rome got $4.1 and he bumped a guy making $1M, the cap only dropped by $3.1M to add him, Kiran only 300K.

I don't think he is correct unless OvertheCap and Spotrac are wrong. The rookie pool is around $6.5M, considering they are replacing players on the 53-man roster that are already counted towards the cap. So if the Bears have around $10.6M in cap right now (Spotrac says $11.4M), they should have at least $4M after all rookies are signed. That doesn't mean they won't make other cuts, as Williams and Bates both make a lot of sense, so cutting them would push the cap space over $10M without a Thuney extension. They may do it if they bring on another RB, S, or Edge.

Yes and he has never lived up to anything.

Yeah Golden is faster, but if you look at all the top WRs, rarely do you find one that didn't have at least one big year in college. In Golden's case, he had none. Having a great year in college doesn't mean it will translate, but if you never had one, rarely do you become a top-end player in the NFL. Actually, I can't find a 1st rounder w/o at least a 1K Receiving season in college that is in the top 25 as a WR in the NFL. There were 4x WRs I found without a 1K season, but they will all selected later in the draft (Hill-5th, Metcalf-2nd, Collins/McLaurin-3rd).

It is top 3 of all-time in the NFL. Herschel Walker-DAL, Ricky Williams-MIA, Bryce Young-CHI. The crazy part is they could've had CJ Stroud at least with the same trade, or they could've just kept Darnold, all their picks and drafted anyone else or traded back themselves. That franchise was set back at least 5 years with that flop.

Last year we were led to believe that Williams was in the best situation ever for a QB, and based on his top 3 WRs, that was probably close to true, but the coaching staff and the O-Line were not. This year though, they completely revamped the interior of the O-Line and brought in competition at Tackle while the coaching staff has seen one of the biggest upgrades in NFL history. Going from Flus and Waldron, neither of whom survived the entire season, to Ben Johnson and Dennis Allen is so massive of an upgrade, it is hard to quantify. For the other stuff. Every rookie is unproven, and every vet is on the trading block. Kmet may not be resigned/extended beyond his current deal, and they may move him near the end of the current deal to get some value back, but that would only be if Loveland met all expectations and it was cap related, like you couldn't extend Loveland while Kmet was getting paid $10M+ annually, so you move Kmet. At that point, it would be one or the other, but there is no reason to get rid of Kmet in the next few years when Loveland and Williams are on their rookie deals. Kmet is insurance in case Loveland doesn't pan out or gets hurt. At this point, outside of an upgrade at RB and Edge, is there really a weakness on the roster? There should be zero excuses for Williams not to excel from this point forward, and the team should be highly competitive year in and year out. This is the perfect time to peak with guys like Moore and Johnson on team-friendly deals and a lot of other starters on rookie deals (Williams, Wright, Odunze, Loveland, Burden, Dexter, Stevenson, Brisker, Trapilo, Turner, and Taylor).

I would say the Rams are too high at #7 for a 10-win team, CIN is too high at #10 for a 9-win team, and SF is too high for a 6-win team. The Rams essentially swapped Kupp for Adams, so why they are a top 10 team, who knows. I have no idea what CIN did to move up, they literally did nothing this offseason and missed the playoffs last season. SF is a 6-win team until they prove they aren't. They don't have Samuel or Mason, and McCaffrey has missed a total of 37 games out of 84 since 2020, 44%, not including the games he got hurt in and left.

Here were the non-playoff NFC teams from last season: 15. SF 6-11 16. SEA 10-7 18. ATL 8-9 19. DAL 7-10 21. CHI 5-12 22. ARZ 8-9 27. CAR 5-12 28. NO 5-12 32. NYG 3-14 They normally don't move teams more than 1 or 2 spots but I would figure the Bears should be in the 17-19 range based on 2025 projections.

Odunze's 1,640 Receiving Yards in 2023 are still the most by a WR for a single season over the last 3 years in the NCAA, and you would have to go back to DeVonta Smith's 1,854 in 2020 to find a better season from a major conference player. So I would not be surprised if he is a top 20 WR this year with over 1K receiving yards.

With Watson out with an ACL, Golden basically replaces him, so it is pretty close to a wash considering Golden is a rookie. I still have my doubts that Golden will even be that good, or better than any of the other WRs they already have. His best season in college he had 58 receptions and 987 receiving yards, but if you didn't know any better, it really is hard to tell him apart from other average college WRs. Here is a quick comp: Pat Bryant (ILL) - 54-984-10 (12 games) Matthew Golden (TEX)- 58-987-9 (16 games) Bryant was a 3rd Round pick.

I looked it all up myself. I was trying to see how good the 3rd-6th pass catching options were on those teams. Did they just have 1-2 elite receivers, than average players, or just a bunch of average guys but with a lot of depth. What I found is that the Bears technically have the deepest pass receiving group with 40+ reception potential I could find, ever. That's if Moore, Odunze, Burden, Kmet, Loveland, and Swift all catch 40 balls. That would be a first as far as I can tell, still going back in time. For the rushing info: In 2022, KC won the SB, went 14-3, had the #1 offense, but their leading rusher was Pacheco with only 830 yds rushing. In total, the team had 1,970 yards rushing between Pacheco, Mahomes, Edwards-Helaire, and McKinnon. In 2021, LAC had Ekeler with 911 yds as their leading rusher; as a team they had 1,834 rushing yards. In 2021, TB had Fournette with 812 rushing yards, and the team had 1,672 rushing yards. Then in 2019, TB had Ronald Jones as their lead back with 724 yards, and the team had 1,521 rushing yards. So the range of rushing yards for 5K Passer Teams was as low as 1,521 with Winston in 2019 to 1,970 with Mahomes in 2022. In comparison, the Bears had 1,734 in 2024, which is basically the median between the high and lows from the listed teams with a terrible O-Line and offensive scheme.

I was curious to see who the last few 5K Passing Teams had for skill position receivers, and how those groups compare to what the Bears have on paper right now. Outside of the super high-end All-Pro seasons for Kelce and Godwin, the other numbers for the rest of the players were not as high as I expected. Going into 2025, the Bears 5th best pass-catching option is Swift or Kmet, so the lesser of the two is the Bears 6th-best pass-catching option. That is unprecedented, even comparing the Bears 2025 projections with some of the best passing offenses of recent history. So there is a good chance that the projections I posted are actually on the low side. One other interesting note, none of the 4 teams listed here had a 1K Rushing RB that season. 5K seems absurd considering the Bears have yet to have a 4K passer, but I really think the 4500 projected is very realistic considering the amount of playmakers the Bears have as pass catchers, the improved O-Line, and Johnson's system. Take a look at let me know what you think. KC 2022 Smith-Schuster 78-933-3 Valdes-Scantling 32-687-2 Hardman 25-297-4 Moore 22-250-0 Watson 15-315-2 Toney 13-171-2 WR 185-2653 Kelce 110-1338-12 Gray 28-299-1 TE 138-1637 McKinnon 56-512-9 Edwards-Helaire 17-151-3 RB 73-663 LAC 2021 Allen 106-1138-6 Williams 76-1146-9 Palmer 33-353-4 Guyton 31-448-3 WR 246-3085 Cook 48-564-4 Parham 20-190-3 Anderson 16-165-1 TE 84-919 Ekeler 70-647-8 Jackson 22-178-0 RB 92-825 TB 2021 Godwin 98-1103-5 Evans 74-1035-14 Brown 42-545-4 Johnson 36-360-0 Perriman 11-167-1 WR 261-3210 Gronkowski 55-802-6 Brate 30-245-4 Howard 14-135-1 TE 99-1182 Fournette 69-454-2 Bernard 23-123-3 RB 92-577 TB 2019 Godwin 86-1333-9 Evans 67-1157-8 Perriman 36-645-6 Watson 15-159-2 Miller 13-200-1 WR 217-3494 Brate 36-311-4 Howard 34-459-1 TE 70-770 Ogunbowale 35-286-0 Jones 31-309-0 Barber 16-115-1 RB 82-710 Best Single Receiver: Kelce 110-1338-12 Best 2nd Option: Williams 76-1146-9 Best 3rd Option: Ekeler 70-647-8 Best 4th Option: Gronkowski 55-802-6 or Fournette 69-454-2 Best 5th option: Brown 42-545-4 Best WR Group: 2019 TB WR 217-3494-26 (Godwin, Evans, Perriman) Best TE Group: 2022 KC TE 138-1637-13 (Kelce, Gray) Best RB Group: 2021 LAC RB 92-825-8 (Ekeler, Jackson)

Looks like Chubb may be a done deal soon, either 1 year $6 or $8M per Internet rumor mill.

This season will be the true test of the value of a coaching staff and scheme. The Bears with the same roster as last year should've won 2-3 more games with just better coaching. If you add the roster differences between last year and this year, that change should double. No team made more roster upgrades than the Bears, and they technically made more upgrades than all the other teams in the division combined. CHI - Key Acquisitions: Thuney (80.0), OG, Jackson (67.6), OG, Dalman (78.8), C, Jarrett (62.1), DT, Odeyingbo (66.1), DE + Ben Johnson + Dennis Allen Top Draft Picks: Loveland, Burden, Trapilo, Turner Biggest losses: Allen, Jenkins (75.4), Walker Wild Card: Brisker's health SOS: 26th Summary: Huge coaching staff upgrade, at least 8 upgrades across the roster. (+4 to +6 wins) MIN - Key Acquisitions: Allen (56.0), DT, Fries (86.9), OG, Kelly, C (67.0). Top Draft Picks: Jackson, Felton Biggest losses: Sam Darnold (80.7), Cam Bynum Wild Card: McCarthy's health and performance, how many 1 score games can they win? SOS: 28th Summary: Huge downgrade at QB, upgraded OLine (-2 to -3 wins) DET - Key Acquisitions: Reed (70.7), CB Top Draft Picks: Williams, Ratledge, Teslaa Biggest losses: Carlton Davis III (74.5), Za'Darius Smith, Kevin Zeitler (86.5) + Ben Johnson + Aaron Glenn Wild Card: Hutchinson's health is a huge question mark. There were talks about him playing in the Super Bowl if they got there, and now in May he looks like an old man. SOS: 30th Summary: Upgrade DL, downgrade OL, huge downgrade in coaching staff (-3 to -4 wins) GB - Key Acquisitions: Banks (65.4), OG, Hobbs (61.4), CB Top Draft Picks: Golden, Belton, Williams Biggest losses: T.J. Slaton (DT), Josh Myers (C), AJ Dillon (RB) Wild Card: How many near INTs from Love will turn into actual INTs? SOS: 23rd Summary: No change (Golden replaces Watson)

Poles said that Wright was not moving and would stick to RT and Trapilo would stick to the left, which implied that he would be competing with others for that spot.

Another hot take, Burden will have a better career at WR than Travis Hunter.

I am glad they are taking this approach with Wright. This also should light a fire under Braxton's ass and if not, he gone. Trapilo has a real shot at this as long as the learning curve isn't too much for him.

I mentioned him in another thread as making a lot of sense considering his time with Johnson AND Swift.