Rookie QBs (Last 2 weeks)

[adam]

Here is how the 1st Round Rookie QBs stack up the last two weeks:

Fields: 44-72, 61.1%, 509 yds, 7.07 Y/A, 3 TD, 2 INT, 16-109 yds
Lawrence: 46-78, 59.0%, 431 yds, 5.53 Y/A, 0 TD, 4 INT, 6-23 yds
Jones: 28-48, 58.3%, 318 yds, 6.63 Y/A, 2 TD, 2 INT, 6-9 yds
Wilson: 32-65, 49.2%, 372 yds, 5.72 Y/A, 0 TD, 0 INT, 8-45 yds

Jones is the only one in a great system. The other 3 are playing with very little talent, in bad schemes, on bad teams.

With all that, Fields still seems to be distancing himself from the others, accounting for 150 more yards than Lawrence (2nd) over the last 2 weeks. 

If he can cut down on the turnovers and sacks, he is going to be elite a lot quicker than most people believe. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 hours ago, adam said:

If he can cut down on the turnovers and sacks, he is going to be elite a lot quicker than most people believe. 

There is definitely a tale of two weeks for sure.  Last week (against GB) he was incredible then last night reverted to what looked like day one preseason.  

These are in fact huge keys to his success.  I’m surprised for as much as he’s been banged around he hasn’t gotten hurt more.  At some point that definitely needs to be cleaned up, he can’t keep doing that.  
 

and the turnovers…oy vey.  All season he’s been fumbling the ball due to the way he carries the ball.  After 2-3 times you’d think he’d work on that a little more.  
 

His receivers actually catching the ball would help (Cole Kmet - looking at you).  And Jimmy G!!  WTF?!?  I call for you to be used in the red zone.  You finally get a chance and drop the ball in your one ‘sure thing’ opportunity.  

Im still excited to see how he develops for next year.  

[adam]

13 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

There is definitely a tale of two weeks for sure.  Last week (against GB) he was incredible then last night reverted to what looked like day one preseason.  

These are in fact huge keys to his success.  I’m surprised for as much as he’s been banged around he hasn’t gotten hurt more.  At some point that definitely needs to be cleaned up, he can’t keep doing that.  
 

and the turnovers…oy vey.  All season he’s been fumbling the ball due to the way he carries the ball.  After 2-3 times you’d think he’d work on that a little more.  
 

His receivers actually catching the ball would help (Cole Kmet - looking at you).  And Jimmy G!!  WTF?!?  I call for you to be used in the red zone.  You finally get a chance and drop the ball in your one ‘sure thing’ opportunity.  

Im still excited to see how he develops for next year.  

Everyone knows what Minnesota likes to do, they show A gap pressure, then either send or drop players. You can design plays off of that, and you can tell by some of the plays, Nagy didn't. Sometimes the plays ran right into the defensive formation's strengths. Who does that?  Monty had several runs for loss right into the teeth of the defense. Nagy's offense is so inflexible, it is maddening. 

[jason]

On 12/21/2021 at 7:13 PM, Alaskan Grizzly said:

His receivers actually catching the ball would help (Cole Kmet - looking at you).  And Jimmy G!!  WTF?!?  I call for you to be used in the red zone.  You finally get a chance and drop the ball in your one ‘sure thing’ opportunity.  

There's a no shit statement if there ever was one. If Nagy was really as brilliant as he thinks he is, and as so many misled souls thought he was before he proved otherwise, he'd be using the TEs a helluva lot more in an attempt to get his rookie QB more comfortable.

[jason]

On 12/22/2021 at 8:20 AM, adam said:

Everyone knows what Minnesota likes to do, they show A gap pressure, then either send or drop players. You can design plays off of that, and you can tell by some of the plays, Nagy didn't. Sometimes the plays ran right into the defensive formation's strengths. Who does that?  Monty had several runs for loss right into the teeth of the defense. Nagy's offense is so inflexible, it is maddening. 

Who does that? Sadly, just about every Bears' OC for the past 20 years. LowGains did it. That idiot Mike Tice did it. Gase did some seriously dumb shit in his short tenure. Pretty sure Martz was the guy who ran Garrett Wolfe up the middle of a defense showing that same double A-gap pressure. Shoop sure as hell did it.

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, jason said:

There's a no shit statement if there ever was one. If Nagy was really as brilliant as he thinks he is, and as so many misled souls thought he was before he proved otherwise, he'd be using the TEs a helluva lot more in an attempt to get his rookie QB more comfortable.

....and he'd be using Horsted instead of Graham in the red zone because all he does is catch TDs.  Graham just can't move well and he's easy to cover these days.  Horsted has enough agility to challenge a DB.  It seems Nagy thinks that using Graham, who might be a better blocker than Hosted (I say that with great caution), can fool a defense enough to think it's 50/50 run or pass.  For me, if you have a receiving weapon they will struggle to cover just put them out there and forget about trying to fool somebody.   You can still surprise them by running (let's call it 70/30 run to pass) when Horsted is on the field.  I really am surprised that the HC who loved Trey Burton, and who was touted as the key to opening up the offense, won't put Horsted on the field.   Simply put:   Nagy has changed since his first year and I don't think it's becaue of Justin Fields.    

[adam]

7 hours ago, jason said:

Who does that? Sadly, just about every Bears' OC for the past 20 years. LowGains did it. That idiot Mike Tice did it. Gase did some seriously dumb shit in his short tenure. Pretty sure Martz was the guy who ran Garrett Wolfe up the middle of a defense showing that same double A-gap pressure. Shoop sure as hell did it.

O'Sullivan nails it here:

 

[adam]

I was actually quite shocked to see how accurate his assessment was. Normally these bad ex-NFL QBs turned analysts (Orlovsky, Simms, Quinn) have very little clue what they are talking about. Simms said Mond should be drafted before Fields. Quinn is on Sirius and his takes are garbage. Orlovsky is on ESPN and he is hit or miss.

[jason]

19 minutes ago, adam said:

O'Sullivan nails it here:

 

That's good stuff. I especially like the play where Fields fumbles. I didn't even realize in the game that one of the blockers ran off for a pointless, ill-timed pitch that was never going to happen that late in the play. It just shows that Nagy designs plays that don't fully complement the intention of the play. Too much cuteness. Too many unnecessary shifts. I swear the Bears would be better off with a playbook that has 20 or so plays that all look a little bit like one another. Keep it simple, stupid.

[adam]

Just now, jason said:

That's good stuff. I especially like the play where Fields fumbles. I didn't even realize in the game that one of the blockers ran off for a pointless, ill-timed pitch that was never going to happen that late in the play. It just shows that Nagy designs plays that don't fully complement the intention of the play. Too much cuteness. Too many unnecessary shifts. I swear the Bears would be better off with a playbook that has 20 or so plays that all look a little bit like one another. Keep it simple, stupid.

On the 4th Down pass to Monty, two receivers (Holtz and Mooney) almost run into each other across the middle.

You are correct, the motion and stuff is supposed to do something for you. For Nagy, it is just using motion to use motion. It is comical. It makes the play more complex for the offense and doesn't impact the defense in any way. In some cases, it makes the play worse.

Trubisky and the offense had some success when they kept it simple. Just line up and beat the other team. Nagy's plays are a detriment to the offense, they are literally playing uphill.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, adam said:

O'Sullivan nails it here:

 

Unbelievable.  Way too complicated

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, jason said:

That's good stuff. I especially like the play where Fields fumbles. I didn't even realize in the game that one of the blockers ran off for a pointless, ill-timed pitch that was never going to happen that late in the play. It just shows that Nagy designs plays that don't fully complement the intention of the play. Too much cuteness. Too many unnecessary shifts. I swear the Bears would be better off with a playbook that has 20 or so plays that all look a little bit like one another. Keep it simple, stupid.

I agree and I think that's the difference between what we see in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson.   When it's a QB run, it's a clear QB run.    All that cuteness makes it more difficult for Fields to digest what's going on and forces him to think too much.  That pitch option is probably why he wasn't carrying the ball as tightly as he should have been.  I'm not excusing the fumble because he saw the contact coming at him and there's no excuse for not putting his left hand over the ball.  

[adam]

Rookies this week:

Lawrence 26-39, 66.7%, 280 yds, 7.2 Y/A, 0 TD, 0 INT, 87.6 QB Rating

Wilson 14-22, 63.6%, 102 yds, 4.6 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT, 89.6 QB Rating, 91 Rushing Yds, 1 Rushing TD

Jones 14-32, 43.7%, 145 yds, 4.5 Y/A, 0 TD, 2 INT, 31.4 QB Rating

So for all the RoY talk with Jones, he really has fallen off after a solid start. In his last 11 games, he only has 3 games over 240 yards passing and is averaging less than 160 yards in his last 3 with only 2 TD and 4 INT in his last 3 games. 

Still can't believe all the Fields hate when all the rookie QBs are doing this.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Still can't believe all the Fields hate when all the rookie QBs are doing this.

He's done nothing to create any consistent buzz.  Then there's this...

https://heavy-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/heavy.com/sports/chicago-bears/justin-fields-qbr-worst-nfl-history/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16405659850669&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fheavy.com%2Fsports%2Fchicago-bears%2Fjustin-fields-qbr-worst-nfl-history%2F

[adam]

13 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

He's done nothing to create any consistent buzz.  Then there's this...

https://heavy-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/heavy.com/sports/chicago-bears/justin-fields-qbr-worst-nfl-history/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16405659850669&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fheavy.com%2Fsports%2Fchicago-bears%2Fjustin-fields-qbr-worst-nfl-history%2F

Yeah QBR gives a huge penalty for fumbles. Obviously an issue, especially for a mobile QB, but something that is correctable.

QBR is also terrible with low volume as it builds up over time. Fields has one of the lowest attempts which makes it harder to evaluate.

Take last week for example,

Mullens 20-30, 66.7%, 147 yds, 4.9 Y/A, 1 TD, QBR 77.9

Fields 26-39, 66.7%, 285 yds, 7.3 Y/A, 1 TD, QBR 16.8

Fields also ran for 35 yards, but lost a fumble and was sacked 3 times. Mullens was not sacked and had no rushing attempts.

So how could Fields have 2.4 yards more per attempt, double the yardage, same TDs and INTs, more rushing yards and 1 more fumble, but a QBR 61.1 points lower than Mullens?

[Mongo3451]

Sacks and turnovers are huge in this league.  Fields is a machine at both.  Coaching and scheme have a lot to do with it.  Let's see what the new staff does.  Nagy and Co are over.

[adam]

Jones had a rebound game against JAX, but only had 227 yards. Lawrence had another 3 INTs who now has 17 on the season. Wilson had a very average game, didn't do much either way, which is a good game for him.

Lance had a bad INT and should've had a second (went right thru defenders' hands), and basically half his yards were on two plays. Lance looked ok, his arm seems weaker than I expected, but he was efficient. It helps having Deebo Samuel.

Rookies this week:

Jones 22-30, 73.3%, 227 yds, 7.6 Y/A, 3 TD, 0 INT, 128.1 QB Rating 

Lance 16-23, 69.6%, 249 yds, 10.8 Y/A, 2 TD, 1 INT, 116.0 QB Rating

Mills 21-32, 73.3%, 163 yds, 5.1 Y/A, 1 TD, 1 INT, 75.4 QB Rating 

Wilson 19-33, 57.6%, 234 yds, 7.1 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT, 89.7 QB Rating

Lawrence 17-27, 63.0%, 193 yds, 7.1 Y/A, 1 TD, 3 INT, 57.1 QB Rating

Mond - only played a few snaps as the Vikings brought in veteran journeyman Mannion off the street to start ahead of Mond. Mond did have 3 attempts, 2 completions for 5 yards - golf clap.

 

[adam]

Well, that ends the season for all rookie QBs. Mac Jones goes out with a stinker. His biggest play was on a bubble screen. There was not much he was going to do when the defense let's up 47.

Jones will end the season as the "best" rookie QB, but I have a feeling he won't last long there. 

One thing I didn't even notice at the end of the season, but since their bye, NE lost 4 of their last 5, including the WC game. 8 of their 10 wins were against non-playoff teams, one was against TEN (shocker) and the other was the snow game in BUF where Jones threw 3 passes. So if you throw that one out, they beat TEN, and in that game, TEN had 3 fumbles lost and an INT. So for as much hype as NE has received, it feels like fool's gold.