Huge MIN loss for the Bears playoff chances. Now with a win, the Bears would only be one game back from the 6th seed.

Damn, the Bears would've only been one game back of MIN, LAR, and NO and would only need to pass two of them in the last 3 games. Passing MIN and NO was very realistic, what a loss man.

26 minutes ago, adam said:

Damn, the Bears would've only been one game back of MIN, LAR, and NO and would only need to pass two of them in the last 3 games. Passing MIN and NO was very realistic, what a loss man.

or maybe it was the wake up call we needed not to get stuck in the trap of drinking our own kool aid?

Im of the belief that until we have a contender, I dont want any lucky breaks. I want to earn our victories. That way market or evolutionary forces shape us until we are good.

I dont want to win because a double doink went the right way - I want to win because we are up 17 and something like that doesnt determine the outcome.

I keep retelling a joke in here, it goes like this:

When Justin Fields was a little boy, he dreamed of heroically evading the pass rush and throwing a last minute 70 yard touchdown pass to win the Super Bowl as time expires.

When Tom Brady was a little boy, he dreamed of being up 35 points in the 3rd quarter.

16 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

When Tom Brady was a little boy, he dreamed of being up 35 points in the 3rd quarter.

Matt Ryan had a similar dream when he played in the Super Bowl in 2017.  

So did Justin this year against Denver and Detroit (game 1).  

15 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Matt Ryan had a similar dream when he played in the Super Bowl in 2017.  

So did Justin this year against Denver and Detroit (game 1).  

Ryan never recovered from that loss. The Falcons had one more winning season (10-6 the following year), then Ryan went 5 straight seasons with a losing record and just like that he is out of the league. 

Im just talking about the difference between being a hero and a winner

13 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Im just talking about the difference between being a hero and a winner

I totally understand. However, Fields has done neither. If he was a heroics guy, the Bears would be 8-6. 

2 hours ago, adam said:

I totally understand. However, Fields has done neither. If he was a heroics guy, the Bears would be 8-6. 

fair. I guess Im saying he is a hero on the play by play level, but not across a drive. And now that teams have a book on him, hes done.

15 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

fair. I guess Im saying he is a hero on the play by play level, but not across a drive. And now that teams have a book on him, hes done.

He doesn't trust what he sees, that's where that hesitation comes in. 

5 minutes ago, adam said:

He doesn't trust what he sees, that's where that hesitation comes in. 

seems like it. too bad too, because he could be unstoppable.

For the Bears to make the playoffs, CAR would have to win at least one more game, and that would not be good for the draft pick. 

So I went thru the NY Times Playoff Predictor (pretty cool): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/chicago-bears-nfl-playoff-picture.html

There are several scenarios, but I tried to find the most realistic one. So besides winning out, the Bears need 8 other games to go there way in the last 3 weeks (less than I thought) in one scenario. This one is without needing a CAR win:

Week 16 
1. LAR beats NO (LAR at home)
2. TEN beats SEA (tough with how SEA looked but it is short week)
3. PHI beats NYG (PHI at home), OR (Week 18 rematch of PHI @ NYG)
- 2 out of 3 are likely, TEN needs to beat SEA or that will make things way more complicated for Bears.

Week 17
4. NYG beats LAR (tough one but in NY)
5. TB beats NO (TB at home)
6. PIT beats SEA (PIT looks checked out and it's on the road) OR (Week 18 ARZ beats SEA)
7. MIN beats GB OR (GB beats MIN AND Week 18 DET beats MIN)
- PIT and NYG need to step up. The GB vs MIN game will decide the playoffs for those 2 teams.

Week 18
8. SF beats LAR (SF at home)
- this one seems likely unless SF is locked into a slot, this week could need some other games added depending on how the previous weeks went.

BLUF: SEA, LAR, GB and NO need to lose 2 of 3, and NYG has to lose 1 of 3. If GB wins 2, MIN has to lose out (DET, GB, DET).

SEA has to lose to TEN and PIT or ARZ, which may be tough. The only other game that is tough is NYG beating LAR (but it is in NY).

 

There are several other scenarios, and games like CAR vs GB have a massive impact on all the other scenario outcomes. 

- The funniest one is if CAR beats GB in Week 16, and GB beats MIN in Week 17 (MIN loses out), while all the other teams do what is above, the Bears would actually be the 6th seed at 8-9 (LMAO), but risk losing the #1 pick.

- An alternative to NYG needing to beat LAR is the following: CAR beats GB + ATL beats NO + SEA loses out

 

We just need to win out and let the dominos fall where they may. Playoffs were never an expectation before the season started 

37 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

We just need to win out and let the dominos fall where they may. Playoffs were never an expectation before the season started 

8 wins would exceed most projections, I think the win total was 7.5 O/U. 

54 minutes ago, adam said:

8 wins would exceed most projections, I think the win total was 7.5 O/U. 

With all the good and bad, 8 wins would be a big improvement. More over many players are developing in front of our eyes. 2024 will have expectations of a run at the playoffs.

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

With all the good and bad, 8 wins would be a big improvement. More over many players are developing in front of our eyes. 2024 will have expectations of a run at the playoffs.

What I find fascinating is teams like Philly, KC, and DAL all seem beatable. Only SF and BAL have 3 losses, all other teams have 4 or more. KC is currently the 3rd seed in the AFC and PHI is 2nd in their Division and currently the 5th Seed. I am sick of the Kelces.

If the Bears don't get in, I am hoping for a BUF vs SF Super Bowl with BUF finally winning one. 

If the Bears do slip in at #7, it would be hilarious if they played DET (#2 vs #7 seed) and the Bears beat them again at home. I would be cry laughing for weeks.

1 hour ago, adam said:

If the Bears do slip in at #7, it would be hilarious if they played DET (#2 vs #7 seed) and the Bears beat them again at home. I would be cry laughing for weeks.

I had actually thought the same thing last week.
 

Imagine the trade value for Justin if that were to happen?!   ??

4 hours ago, adam said:

What I find fascinating is teams like Philly, KC, and DAL all seem beatable. Only SF and BAL have 3 losses, all other teams have 4 or more. KC is currently the 3rd seed in the AFC and PHI is 2nd in their Division and currently the 5th Seed. I am sick of the Kelces.

If the Bears don't get in, I am hoping for a BUF vs SF Super Bowl with BUF finally winning one. 

If the Bears do slip in at #7, it would be hilarious if they played DET (#2 vs #7 seed) and the Bears beat them again at home. I would be cry laughing for weeks.

The NFL leaked the Superbowl with the logo colors of Purple and Red.  SF VS Bal.  If that happens, then we are all dooked for spending countless hours being super fans.

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I had actually thought the same thing last week.
 

Imagine the trade value for Justin if that were to happen?!   ??

Lol yeah right, if the Bears make the playoffs AND beat DET in a playoff game, the Bears will resign Trubisky!

Week 16 
1. LAR beats NO (LAR at home) Check
2. TEN beats SEA (tough with how SEA looked but it is short week) - Damn SEA, making things tough for the Bears
3. PHI beats NYG (PHI at home), OR (Week 18 rematch of PHI @ NYG) - MON Check

So 3 out of 4 things occurred for the Bears in Week 16. TEN almost beat SEA which would've made the path easier.

Now it is pretty tough, but outside of beating ATL in Week 17, there are only two other outcomes that must occur this weekend: 

1. NYG beats LAR (-6.5), SUN Noon

2. PIT beats SEA (-3.5), SUN 3:05pm

So the Bears need two underdogs to win, and PIT on the road. If either of these two don't hit, the Bears playoff hopes are dashed. With one in each time slot, the Bears could win and see the Giants win, then have to scoreboard watch to see if PIT can win in SEA. The odds are very unlikely for the Bears and this week will end the faint playoff hopes. I will say, at least they go into this game with a shot, and Week 18 has it's own motivation against the Packers, so all I can say is at least they kept it interesting for the entire season.

16 minutes ago, adam said:

at least they kept it interesting for the entire season.

The defense is playing very well, and we are definitely not in the basement anymore. Moore had a good season, and we were pretty good in the running game. We're at 24th in power rankings, on the cusp between the bad teams and the middle teams. That's a huge improvement from where we were right at the bottom.

Eight of 32 teams have been mathematically eliminated. At 24th, we'd be the next team just ahead of them, hanging on to the last rung of the middle tier. And that is good progress. If it sounds negative, it's not, it's an honest appraisal, and grounds for optimism moving forward.

11 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

The defense is playing very well, and we are definitely not in the basement anymore. Moore had a good season, and we were pretty good in the running game. We're at 24th in power rankings, on the cusp between the bad teams and the middle teams. That's a huge improvement from where we were right at the bottom.

Eight of 32 teams have been mathematically eliminated. At 24th, we'd be the next team just ahead of them, hanging on to the last rung of the middle tier. And that is good progress. If it sounds negative, it's not, it's an honest appraisal, and grounds for optimism moving forward.

The season played out kinda crazy too. They lose 4 in a row to start the season, with the last one being the Denver collapse. Then they finally get a win, then the next game Fields gets hurt and they lose. Bagent comes in and wins 2 of 4, then Fields comes back and they lose the collapse against Detroit. Then win 2 straight, then collapse against Cleveland, then the Arizona win. They are 6-5 since the 0-4 start and 4-2 in their last 6 with the 2 losses coming in the collapses. So they were that close to 6 straight wins and an 8-7 record heading into this weekend. 

Like last year, that was not a 3-win team. This season, they are not a 6-win team. That tells me it's coaching. When Justin Jones is dropping into coverage in back to back games, and both times the defense is gashed on the same concept, that is a problem. 

If they can add at least one high quality starter via FA, plus add 2-3 blue chippers in the draft, while cutting the dead weight, this roster is going to improve drastically. Last game showed they need WR2, FS, and C, followed by TE2 and Edge2.

1 hour ago, adam said:

The season played out kinda crazy too. They lose 4 in a row to start the season, with the last one being the Denver collapse. Then they finally get a win, then the next game Fields gets hurt and they lose. Bagent comes in and wins 2 of 4, then Fields comes back and they lose the collapse against Detroit. Then win 2 straight, then collapse against Cleveland, then the Arizona win. They are 6-5 since the 0-4 start and 4-2 in their last 6 with the 2 losses coming in the collapses. So they were that close to 6 straight wins and an 8-7 record heading into this weekend. 

Like last year, that was not a 3-win team. This season, they are not a 6-win team. That tells me it's coaching. When Justin Jones is dropping into coverage in back to back games, and both times the defense is gashed on the same concept, that is a problem. 

If they can add at least one high quality starter via FA, plus add 2-3 blue chippers in the draft, while cutting the dead weight, this roster is going to improve drastically. Last game showed they need WR2, FS, and C, followed by TE2 and Edge2.

Every thing you stated is true. I think if we could add a center and another edge player, this team takes a giant step forward. He will add another weapon, A FS, this off-season, the top 2 picks and the top acquisition in free agency will fill 3 of those spots. It's going to be an interesting off-season.

Revised after Week 16:

Week 17
1. NYG beats LAR 
2. PIT beats SEA 
3. MIN beats GB 

Week 18
4. SF beats LAR
5. ARZ beats SEA 
6. ATL beats NO