Offensive Makeover

[adam]

The Bears went from Fields, Foreman, Mooney, St. Brown, Tonyan, Whitehair, and Patrick

to

Williams, Swift, Allen, Odunze, Everett, Bates, and Shelton

in one offseason. It is hard to see this not being a top 12 offense. According to DVOA, the Bears had the 22nd best offense last year. 10 spots seems like a huge leap, but when you improve in every position group, 10 spots seems possible. 

If the team went 7-11 with 3 terrible losses, 10 wins seems like the floor as they should've had 10 last season. Playing the last place schedule, there are not many dominant teams on their schedule. 

 

[killakrzydav]

top ten O and D

[adam]

47 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

top ten O and D

That would be insane. There were only 4 teams to have a top 10 offense and defense last year, they finished 1, 2, 4, 5 in overall DVOA. Their average W/L was 12-5. Two of them played in the SB, and 3 of 4 played in the Conference Finals. So there is heavy correlation between top 10 DVOA and overall outcomes.

BAL - 1 / 4 / 1
SF - 2 / 1 / 4
DAL - 4 / 9 / 5
KC - 5 / 8 / 7

This is how the Bears finished, but the last 12 weeks they were a top 5 defense:

CHI - 22 / 22 / 17

[CrackerDog]

2 hours ago, adam said:

The Bears went from Fields, Foreman, Mooney, St. Brown, Tonyan, Whitehair, and Patrick

to

Williams, Swift, Allen, Odunze, Everett, Bates, and Shelton

in one offseason. It is hard to see this not being a top 12 offense. According to DVOA, the Bears had the 22nd best offense last year. 10 spots seems like a huge leap, but when you improve in every position group, 10 spots seems possible. 

If the team went 7-11 with 3 terrible losses, 10 wins seems like the floor as they should've had 10 last season. Playing the last place schedule, there are not many dominant teams on their schedule. 

 

Not to mention the coaching improvement.  

[adam]

46 minutes ago, CrackerDog said:

Not to mention the coaching improvement.  

Yeah Getsy to Waldron is a significant improvement as well, I forgot all about Getsy.

[Stinger226]

A couple things I look at. I don't look at the team that went 7-10, I look at the team that went 5-3 the last 8 games. A top defense, and a better offense. 

Rah, Rah for D.   We have Sweat for the full year, for Flus to better know how to use him. Stevenson, Dexter, Pickens, Terrell Smith will all improve. One more year of the DBs playing together with a better Free Safety. Booker and who ever  else he brings in will add to the pass rush. The only loss was  Justin Jones, who at the time everyone thought just played average as a grade. I think he was good. 

Top 5 Defense.

Rah Rah for O.  Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Everett, and Swift. Herbert is a good back but doesn't have enough durability to be a dominant 3 down runner. Johnson has another year experience and Swift is the bell cow RB.

A quality  backup TE, Center position ( Bates and Shelton). Improved. Depth along the line, drafted a swing OT and the most important acquisition, Shane Waldron. He run an offense with 3 quality WRs, lots of 2 TE plays, had a Bell cow RB. Took advantage of an average QB  and generated an  offense.

He  has better quality players to fit in those spots. Top 5 offense.

[Mongo3451]

In looking at the last game, what makes anyone think we'll have a top five defense?  I see top half and but not top five.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

In looking at the last game, what makes anyone think we'll have a top five defense?  I see top half and but not top five.

The defense allowed 17 pts to the Packers in GB without Jaylon Johnson. The Bears had nothing to play for but pride while GB was still trying to get into the playoffs.  In the 2 games before the Bears, GB scored 33 both games. In the two playoff games after, they scored 48 and 21, so I would say only allowed 17 without your All-Pro CB was a pretty good defensive effort.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, adam said:

The defense allowed 17 pts to the Packers in GB without Jaylon Johnson. The Bears had nothing to play for but pride while GB was still trying to get into the playoffs.  In the 2 games before the Bears, GB scored 33 both games. In the two playoff games after, they scored 48 and 21, so I would say only allowed 17 without your All-Pro CB was a pretty good defensive effort.

I'm a little fuzzy, but didn't we give up around 450 yards and a Packer receiver dropped a sure TD?  Please don't ever tell me they didn't have anything to play against the Packers.  Also, Justin had everything to play for.  If he was as beloved as stated, the D would've been inspired.

[BearFan PHX]

I think the Bears defense in total was top 5 for the last 12 weeks of the season, i.e. once we got Sweat in there.

Doesn't mean they will be top 5 next year, or that they will dominate the good teams, but I can see why there is reason to hope they will?

[DABEARSDABOMB]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

In looking at the last game, what makes anyone think we'll have a top five defense?  I see top half and but not top five.

I agree - I think people are overating a strong finish. The dline has Sweat who came out on fire - but it is still on the mediocre side.  DB's look good but are young so can take a step back vs. forward and we literally played so few quality QB's all year. Do I think the D is solid - sure, but this is not a top 5 D, I would argue it might be a Top 10 D.  

Note: I am very happy with direction of the team - but I think we have a lot of overhyping potentially going on here. Just like with the team won 7 games but its now destined for 11. We had some win's against really really bad teams and yes we had some tough losses but at same time we benefited from playing teams with hurt QB's, etc (as did teams with us).