3-4 more wins almost a guarantee

[adam]

We have been talking around this for awhile, but the Bears finished 7-11 and had 3 terrible losses that they shouldn't have had. The team has improved from last year and has the last place schedule. Those factors all point to at least 2-3 more wins this year.

Then I saw a tweet from OTC linking one of their articles. In this article, OTC was explaining how they were valuing future draft picks based on previous trade values. However, one interesting table got my attention that wasn't related to the subject of the article. It basically breaks down teams by last year's record, then the average increase or decrease in wins based on their draft picks. Typically worse teams improved more because they are had more room to improve, but also because they drafted better players.

So why does this matter? Essentially the Bears got the value of the Panthers pick as a 2-win team AND the value of their own pick as a 7-win team. A team with 0-4.5 wins improves by 3.4 wins while a team with 5-7.5 wins improves by 0.76 wins.  

Just by using this formula alone, by adding Williams and Odunze, the Bears will improve by no less than 3 wins, but more than likely 4 wins when you take into account the other moves (Allen, Byard, etc).

https://overthecap.com/discounting-of-future-nfl-draft-picks

Bookmark this and come back in January (again). Bears are winning 10-11 this year.

[BearFan PHX]

adam, cool and interesting analysis as always. Thanks for that.

[Mongo3451]

That's cool in theory, but that's not how the math works. Bad teams improve at a greater rate because they are usually young, bitten with injuries and/or coach loses the team and is replaced.  If those teams win three or four more, they still aren't good. Vegas builds billion dollar casino's and the have us at 8.5.  I think we sneak in at nine wins.

[adam]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

That's cool in theory, but that's not how the math works. Bad teams improve at a greater rate because they are usually young, bitten with injuries and/or coach loses the team and is replaced.  If those teams win three or four more, they still aren't good. Vegas builds billion dollar casino's and the have us at 8.5.  I think we sneak in at nine wins.

OTC used several years to come up with those values, so it takes out any specific factor, like injuries or coaching. 

It is most evident when teams have multiple early first round picks (both in top 15), because of the draft pick value scaling. Here were the last few teams that met this criteria:

HOU 2023, 2 top 3 picks, +7 wins in 2023

DET 2022, 2 top 12 picks, +6 wins in 2022

CLE 2018, 2 top 4 picks, +6 wins in 2018

Since the Bears already had 7 wins, they didn't get the added benefit of those factors, that is why they would come in at +3-4 wins, but if the Bears were a 4-win team last year, jumping 6 wins would've been right in line with these other teams.

Also, these are not my numbers, I am using the work that OTC did to come up with their values. They are normally pretty spot on when it comes to this kind of stuff.

The best part is it already matches what a lot of us thought about the teams chances, and sort of reinforces our beliefs with data from a completely different perspective.

[Stinger226]

I'm calling 12-5, come back in December to criticize me but it's a future prediction. 

[BearFan PHX]

On 4/30/2024 at 4:00 PM, adam said:

OTC used several years to come up with those values, so it takes out any specific factor, like injuries or coaching. 

It is most evident when teams have multiple early first round picks (both in top 15), because of the draft pick value scaling. Here were the last few teams that met this criteria:

HOU 2023, 2 top 3 picks, +7 wins in 2023

DET 2022, 2 top 12 picks, +6 wins in 2022

CLE 2018, 2 top 4 picks, +6 wins in 2018

Since the Bears already had 7 wins, they didn't get the added benefit of those factors, that is why they would come in at +3-4 wins, but if the Bears were a 4-win team last year, jumping 6 wins would've been right in line with these other teams.

Also, these are not my numbers, I am using the work that OTC did to come up with their values. They are normally pretty spot on when it comes to this kind of stuff.

The best part is it already matches what a lot of us thought about the teams chances, and sort of reinforces our beliefs with data from a completely different perspective.

I think the idea that having 2 top picks significantly improves a team is obvious and a no brainer.

Im not sure about using the raw number of wins as the measure of improvement though for several reasons. One is that the fewer wins a team had the previous year, the more wins you can give them while they are still mediocre. It's a bigger leap from 7 to 10 wins than it is from 2 to 7 wins.Z

Youd want to find a way to measure the improvement that makes moving toward an 8-9 record easier than, say getting above 10 wins?

HOU went from 3-13-1 in 2022 to 10-7 in 2023. Rather than expressing that as a percentage increase, I'll say that it proves a good rookie QB can lead a team to at least 10 wins.

DET went from 3-13-1 in 2021 to 9-8 in 2022 to 12-5 in 2023. it is clearly possible to get up in the 9 and 10 win territory when you add first round talent. I think it's hard to stay at the 3 win level after two high picks, that seems clear.

CLE went from 0-16 in 2017 to 7-8-1 in 2018 and then 6-10 in 2019 but they are Cleveland.

I think it's fair from this data to guess that 9 or 10 wins is the FLOOR for this roster. I think this roster is more stacked than any of those teams were. I dont thin 12 or 13 wins is an outrageous thing to think might happen, but until I see the pieces on the field together, I have a hard time saying more than 10 as a predicition.

If the preseason or the first few games looks like we came ready to play, I would start thinking higher at that point.

[adam]

12 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I'm calling 12-5, come back in December to criticize me but it's a future prediction. 

It really feels like 11-12 wins with 5-6 losses is absolutely realistic, which is hard to fathom as a Bears fan. 

[BearFan2000]

11-12 wins is realistic in my opinion.  As others have pointed out last year we lost at least 3 games where we should have won.  Our offense should be much improved, our ST should be much improved, and our D should be helped by both of the other phases playing better complimentary football.  Look what our D did last year with an often inept offense, and poor special teams.  We should have a much more solid well rounded team, so why shouldn't we think we can win 11-12 games and be in the playoff picture and possibly even playing for the Division.  Not expecting us to win the North because it's shaping up to become one of the better Divisions in the NFL.   Meaningful Bears football in December is my hope.

[Pixote]

We need to address the DL before the season starts.

Poles has done a remarkable job revamping our roster. 

However, the D is still missing the pass rush. We were, if I am not mistaken, last in the league in sacks last year, even after bringing on Sweat. We have a fantastic LB & DB group behind the DL, but they need to have the DL put pressure on the opposing QB. There are too many damn good QBs who will pick us apart if we cannot put more pressure on their QB.

Hopefully, Poles can fill in the gap until we can add some blue-chip players in next year's draft.

If he does, I agree 100 with everyone; 11-12 wins is a realistic goal.

On a side note, If I'm not mistaken, the only players Ryan Pace drafted who are still on the Bears are:

Larry Borom (pick No. 151, 2021 NFL draft) (I suspect will be gone before the season starts)
Khalil Herbert (pick No. 217, 2021 NFL draft) (Now no longer a starter but a valuable backup)
Teven Jenkins (pick No. 39, 2021 NFL draft) (A+ Pick when not on the sidelines because of injury)
Jaylon Johnson (pick No. 50, 2020 NFL draft) (A+ Pick)
Cole Kmet (pick No. 43, 2020 NFL draft) (A+ Pick)

Talk about a GM taking on a monumental task! Poles is doing an awesome job. 

Now, he just needs to finish the job. 3T, Edge, Center.

 

[adam]

7 hours ago, Pixote said:

We need to address the DL before the season starts.

Poles has done a remarkable job revamping our roster. 

However, the D is still missing the pass rush. We were, if I am not mistaken, last in the league in sacks last year, even after bringing on Sweat. We have a fantastic LB & DB group behind the DL, but they need to have the DL put pressure on the opposing QB. There are too many damn good QBs who will pick us apart if we cannot put more pressure on their QB.

Hopefully, Poles can fill in the gap until we can add some blue-chip players in next year's draft.

If he does, I agree 100 with everyone; 11-12 wins is a realistic goal.

On a side note, If I'm not mistaken, the only players Ryan Pace drafted who are still on the Bears are:

Larry Borom (pick No. 151, 2021 NFL draft) (I suspect will be gone before the season starts)
Khalil Herbert (pick No. 217, 2021 NFL draft) (Now no longer a starter but a valuable backup)
Teven Jenkins (pick No. 39, 2021 NFL draft) (A+ Pick when not on the sidelines because of injury)
Jaylon Johnson (pick No. 50, 2020 NFL draft) (A+ Pick)
Cole Kmet (pick No. 43, 2020 NFL draft) (A+ Pick)

Talk about a GM taking on a monumental task! Poles is doing an awesome job. 

Now, he just needs to finish the job. 3T, Edge, Center.

 

My assumption is they bring in a vet for DT and Edge to fill out the rotation for this season, then in the 2025 draft, get a 3T, Edge, and IOL in the first two rounds and a rookie Center by the 4th.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

10 minutes ago, adam said:

My assumption is they bring in a vet for DT and Edge to fill out the rotation for this season, then in the 2025 draft, get a 3T, Edge, and IOL in the first two rounds and a rookie Center by the 4th.

Just said this, we already know before the kick off.

[Stinger226]

I have read several places where the Bears have kept in contact with Yannick Ngakoue and his injury recovery. 

I think he will be back.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Just said this, we already know before the kick off.

yeah when you have a good roster, the holes are easy to see. This is all the effect of having tanked the 2021 year. We bought our freedom from football purgatory with that move.

[Stinger226]

Last year the top 4 offenses had over 4000 passing and over 2200 yards rushing.  We had 2399 rushing and 3421 passing. Caleb and our WRs will make up 600 passing yards. 

Anyone think that is unrealistic? 

We will have more offensive plays this year because of a more successful offense. I think Waldron runs a balanced offense theory . In 2022, 573 passing plays and 425 rushing plays.  4282 passing yards and 2042 rushubg yards. 

In 2023 passing 575 4167 and rushing 382 1580. 

They finished 9-8 both seasons. We have more talent than the Seahawks had, it is a no brainer that we win more games.  

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Last year the top 4 offenses had over 4000 passing and over 2200 yards rushing.  We had 2399 rushing and 3421 passing. Caleb and our WRs will make up 600 passing yards. 

Anyone think that is unrealistic? 

We will have more offensive plays this year because of a more successful offense. I think Waldron runs a balanced offense theory . In 2022, 573 passing plays and 425 rushing plays.  4282 passing yards and 2042 rushubg yards. 

In 2023 passing 575 4167 and rushing 382 1580. 

They finished 9-8 both seasons. We have more talent than the Seahawks had, it is a no brainer that we win more games.  

I hate being overly optimistic, but man it is hard to see anything less than 4,200 passing yards.

This is 4,400: Moore - 1,000, Allen - 900, Odunze - 700, Kmet - 600, Everett - 400, Swift - 300, Scott - 200, All Others - 300 (Herbert and Roschon had over 300 last year).

That is also 364 fewer yards for Moore, 343 fewer for Allen, 119 fewer for Kmet, and then normal projections for the others. No crazy numbers and no career highs. 

 

[Pixote]

17 hours ago, adam said:

My assumption is they bring in a vet for DT and Edge to fill out the rotation for this season, then in the 2025 draft, get a 3T, Edge, and IOL in the first two rounds and a rookie Center by the 4th.

I was looking at available EDGE players and noticed Emmanuel Ogbah. His stats are actually impressive, especially when you consider, from what I read, Miami switched defensive schemes two years ago causing his production to drop. At 30 years of age, 8 years of experience, 6'4". 275#, 35 1/2" arms, and 10" hands, he sure fits the part physically. I bet he'd sign cheap and would be a good upgrade opposite M Sweat. (assuming our scheme fits his strengths).

[adam]

3 hours ago, Pixote said:

I was looking at available EDGE players and noticed Emmanuel Ogbah. His stats are actually impressive, especially when you consider, from what I read, Miami switched defensive schemes two years ago causing his production to drop. At 30 years of age, 8 years of experience, 6'4". 275#, 35 1/2" arms, and 10" hands, he sure fits the part physically. I bet he'd sign cheap and would be a good upgrade opposite M Sweat. (assuming our scheme fits his strengths).

Ogbah would be a nice vet addition.

[Stinger226]

23 hours ago, adam said:

I hate being overly optimistic, but man it is hard to see anything less than 4,200 passing yards.

This is 4,400: Moore - 1,000, Allen - 900, Odunze - 700, Kmet - 600, Everett - 400, Swift - 300, Scott - 200, All Others - 300 (Herbert and Roschon had over 300 last year).

That is also 364 fewer yards for Moore, 343 fewer for Allen, 119 fewer for Kmet, and then normal projections for the others. No crazy numbers and no career highs. 

 

I think those are very realistic numbers. If you cant be optimistic this year you dont have it in you to do so. I get next year is the p[rojection, but Poles is going for it now. I was just reading where Yannick stayed in Chicago and was rehabing at Hallas Hall. He didnt perform well last year but got better when Sweat got here. I figure Poles gives him an incentive ladened contract. Like 6 mil and 5 mil as incentives. 

With him, Sweat, Booker and Walker it will be higher sack numbers. The DL coach is sup[posed to be a Guru type, who knows how he he make make everyone better. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think those are very realistic numbers. If you cant be optimistic this year you dont have it in you to do so. I get next year is the p[rojection, but Poles is going for it now. I was just reading where Yannick stayed in Chicago and was rehabing at Hallas Hall. He didnt perform well last year but got better when Sweat got here. I figure Poles gives him an incentive ladened contract. Like 6 mil and 5 mil as incentives. 

With him, Sweat, Booker and Walker it will be higher sack numbers. The DL coach is sup[posed to be a Guru type, who knows how he he make make everyone better. 

I can see Yannick back just for the Bears and himself to redeem themselves, but if he resigns this year on a one year and a FA in 2025, he will be a 10 year vet which takes away that higher compensation value if signed else where.  Just for that, they should consider someone younger.  It will come down to the Bears desperation. 

[adam]

Looking at DVOA from last year, the Bears had the 22nd offense and 17th defense for the season. Here is how the rest of the North looked:

DET 5th/13th
GB 6th/27th
MIN 23rd/11th
 

So just say the offense gets to 15th (right at league average), and the defense improves to a top 10 defense (they were top 5 the last 7 weeks of last year). That would put them at 15th/10th. There were 3 teams to finish in the teens in both offense and defense last year, HOU, NO, and JAX. That should be a 10-7 record.

Now looking at the other teams, DET's offense looks to be exactly the same, and based on previous seasons, most teams have a dip, so I expect DET to be top 10, but not top 5, say 8th. On defense, they should be slightly better, say 12th. That would put them at 8th/12th, and probably atop the division again. This is 11-12 wins.

For GB, this will be interesting. They finished with the 6th offense and 27th defense. I feel like their offense is going to come down to earth, say 10th, and their defense will be better, say 22nd. That would put them at 10th/22nd. This is 8-9 wins.

Lastly we have MIN, their offense was terrible last year and now has a rookie QB. I think they will be worse on offense, say 25th, and their defense is going to stay exactly the same at 11th. So 25th/11th. This is 6-7 wins.

So with the factual scientific data output, we get:

Lions 11-6 #2 Seed
Bears 10-7 WC1
Packers 8-9
Vikings 6-11