Since this season is already over other than for watching the progress of Caleb, I took a look at the 2025 opponents based on the current records and seeding.  On paper, it will be one of the toughest schedules in the league again with only 5-6 "winnable" games. The strong division makes the entire schedule that much tougher.  11 games against teams at .500 or better, 6 games vs sub .500 teams. 

Home
Detroit Lions 9-1
Green Bay Packers 7-3
Minnesota Vikings 8-2
Dallas Cowboys 3-7 (Dak will be back)
New York Giants 2-8 (should be ez win)
Cleveland Browns 2-8 (should be ez win)
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-2
Carolina Panthers 3-7 (currently 4th in NFC S) (should be ez win)

Away
Baltimore Ravens 7-4
Cincinnati Bengals 4-7 (Bengals a lot better than a 4-7 team)
Detroit Lions 9-1
Green Bay Packers  7-3
Minnesota Vikings  8-2
Philadelphia Eagles 8-2
Washington Commanders 7-4
LAR/SEA/SF 5-5 (tied for 4th in NFC W)

17th game - LVR or JAX  (should be ez win)

That is a full season gauntlet with a current record of 92-74 .554. The Bears current SOS is .560 with all 17 games for 2024 with current records. So next season's schedule looks to be comparable. As an expected 5-win team this year, the Bears would be only favored in 4-5 games next season and they may be road dogs for all of them.

This yr SF was rated to go to the SB, they are beatable. If Caleb is who we thought he was, they will be afraid to play us.

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

This yr SF was rated to go to the SB, they are beatable. If Caleb is who we thought he was, they will be afraid to play us.

That's the goal right? Make more of these games winnable, but right now, this is a 5-6 win team. The entire O-Line needs to be overhauled and they need at least another DT and Edge before that can happen. 

On 11/19/2024 at 7:41 AM, adam said:

Since this season is already over other than for watching the progress of Caleb, I took a look at the 2025 opponents based on the current records and seeding.  On paper, it will be one of the toughest schedules in the league again with only 5-6 "winnable" games. The strong division makes the entire schedule that much tougher.  11 games against teams at .500 or better, 6 games vs sub .500 teams. 

Home
Detroit Lions 9-1
Green Bay Packers 7-3
Minnesota Vikings 8-2
Dallas Cowboys 3-7 (Dak will be back)
New York Giants 2-8 (should be ez win)
Cleveland Browns 2-8 (should be ez win)
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-2
Carolina Panthers 3-7 (currently 4th in NFC S) (should be ez win)

Away
Baltimore Ravens 7-4
Cincinnati Bengals 4-7 (Bengals a lot better than a 4-7 team)
Detroit Lions 9-1
Green Bay Packers  7-3
Minnesota Vikings  8-2
Philadelphia Eagles 8-2
Washington Commanders 7-4
LAR/SEA/SF 5-5 (tied for 4th in NFC W)

17th game - LVR (should be ez win)

That is a full season gauntlet with a current record of 92-74 .554. The Bears current SOS is .560 with all 17 games for 2024 with current records. So next season's schedule looks to be comparable. As an expected 5-win team this year, the Bears would be only favored in 4-5 games next season and they may be road dogs for all of them.

I know it is still early, but this looks worse now than it did a month ago lol. 

10x games vs teams that currently have 10+ wins (not just winning teams, elite teams)
2x games against 7-8 teams (CIN and DAL)
1x SFO (not a true last place team)
4x games vs bad teams (CAR, CLE, LVR, and NYG, but CAR is improving)

SFO was ravaged with injuries, so they are not a true last place team. DAL has been without Dak for much of the season, so they will be better than a 7-8 team. CIN should also be better.

So the Bears, a current 4-win team needs to improve in the offseason to the point where they can compete with the likes of DET, MIN, GB, PHI, WAS, PIT, and BAL if they even want a shot at a winning record next season. 

If you give them every game against a 7-8 team and lower, that's only 7 games. I know teams change from year to year, but teams like BAL, PIT, PHI, DET, and GB all had winning records pretty much every year. That leaves MIN and WAS. 

The Bears need to open the wallet and bring in impact FAs and nail the draft. Otherwise, I don't see how this is not a 5 to 6 win team next year.

I don't think any rookies will be able to translate to wins early on as well.  They may help solidify the gap but to expect all-star performances is not realistic.  New coaching and 15 new starters means 500 at best if we are lucky. 

Revisiting the schedule, now post-draft.

Right off the bat, I will say the Bears split the division, but that could go plus or minus a win, so at worst 2-4, at best 4-2.

Home
DET - W
GB - W
MIN - W
DAL  - L (Really depends on which DAL team shows up, could go either way)
NYG - W (Feels like an easy win)
CLE - W (CLE has 5 QBs, and none are starter quality)
PIT - W (Defense good, offense bad)
NO - W (Feels like one of the easier games on the schedule)

7-1 at home

Away
DET - L
GB  - L
MIN  - L
PHI - L (Super Bowl champs)
WAS - W (should've beaten them with Flus)
BAL - L (Tough matchup)
CIN - W (Feels like a shootout in the making)
SF - L (This game could go either way, give the edge to SF right now)
LVR - W (Should be one of the easier road games)

3-6 on the road

10-7 record, with probably a +/-3, meaning 13-4 if EVERYTHING goes right, and 7-10 if everything goes wrong.

4 hours ago, adam said:

Revisiting the schedule, now post-draft.

Right off the bat, I will say the Bears split the division, but that could go plus or minus a win, so at worst 2-4, at best 4-2.

Home
DET - W
GB - W
MIN - W
DAL  - L (Really depends on which DAL team shows up, could go either way)
NYG - W (Feels like an easy win)
CLE - W (CLE has 5 QBs, and none are starter quality)
PIT - W (Defense good, offense bad)
NO - W (Feels like one of the easier games on the schedule)

7-1 at home

Away
DET - L
GB  - L
MIN  - L
PHI - L (Super Bowl champs)
WAS - W (should've beaten them with Flus)
BAL - L (Tough matchup)
CIN - W (Feels like a shootout in the making)
SF - L (This game could go either way, give the edge to SF right now)
LVR - W (Should be one of the easier road games)

3-6 on the road

10-7 record, with probably a +/-3, meaning 13-4 if EVERYTHING goes right, and 7-10 if everything goes wrong.

good analysis - I think you've got it right.

With the talent we have and the coach, we have to have a winning record or it's a failed year. Probably means Caleb didn't get better.

20 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

With the talent we have and the coach, we have to have a winning record or it's a failed year. Probably means Caleb didn't get better.

Agreed.  The rest of our division plays it the same.  Rumor has it that we are in the best division...

This season will be the true test of the value of a coaching staff and scheme. The Bears with the same roster as last year should've won 2-3 more games with just better coaching. If you add the roster differences between last year and this year, that change should double. No team made more roster upgrades than the Bears, and they technically made more upgrades than all the other teams in the division combined.

CHI -
Key Acquisitions: Thuney (80.0), OG, Jackson (67.6), OG, Dalman (78.8), C, Jarrett (62.1), DT, Odeyingbo (66.1), DE + Ben Johnson + Dennis Allen
Top Draft Picks: Loveland, Burden, Trapilo, Turner
Biggest losses:  Allen, Jenkins (75.4), Walker
Wild Card: Brisker's health
SOS: 26th
Summary: Huge coaching staff upgrade, at least 8 upgrades across the roster. (+4 to +6 wins)

MIN -
Key Acquisitions: Allen (56.0), DT, Fries (86.9), OG, Kelly, C (67.0). 
Top Draft Picks: Jackson, Felton
Biggest losses: Sam Darnold (80.7), Cam Bynum
Wild Card: McCarthy's health and performance, how many 1 score games can they win?
SOS: 28th
Summary: Huge downgrade at QB, upgraded OLine (-2 to -3 wins)

DET -
Key Acquisitions: Reed (70.7), CB
Top Draft Picks: Williams, Ratledge, Teslaa
Biggest losses: Carlton Davis III (74.5), Za'Darius Smith, Kevin Zeitler (86.5) + Ben Johnson + Aaron Glenn
Wild Card: Hutchinson's health is a huge question mark. There were talks about him playing in the Super Bowl if they got there, and now in May he looks like an old man.
SOS: 30th
Summary: Upgrade DL, downgrade OL, huge downgrade in coaching staff (-3 to -4 wins)

GB - 
Key Acquisitions: Banks (65.4), OG, Hobbs (61.4), CB
Top Draft Picks: Golden, Belton, Williams
Biggest losses: T.J. Slaton (DT), Josh Myers (C), AJ Dillon (RB)
Wild Card: How many near INTs from Love will turn into actual INTs?
SOS: 23rd
Summary: No change (Golden replaces Watson)

I think they all drop off some as we got a lot better. Detroit/ new coaches, GB/ love not getting better, Minnesota/ new QB, 

GB - 
Key Acquisitions: Banks (65.4), OG, Hobbs (61.4), CB
Top Draft Picks: Golden, Belton, Williams
Biggest losses: T.J. Slaton (DT), Josh Myers (C), AJ Dillon (RB)
Wild Card: How many near INTs from Love will turn into actual INTs?
SOS: 23rd
Summary: No change (Golden replaces Watson)

I can see it now, Love throwing his lucky moon shots and Golden being the recipient.  The NFL did a great job building the rival hype and I expect to see the Bears open at Lambeu Field for Sunday Night Football. 

22 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

GB - 
Key Acquisitions: Banks (65.4), OG, Hobbs (61.4), CB
Top Draft Picks: Golden, Belton, Williams
Biggest losses: T.J. Slaton (DT), Josh Myers (C), AJ Dillon (RB)
Wild Card: How many near INTs from Love will turn into actual INTs?
SOS: 23rd
Summary: No change (Golden replaces Watson)

I can see it now, Love throwing his lucky moon shots and Golden being the recipient.  The NFL did a great job building the rival hype and I expect to see the Bears open at Lambeu Field for Sunday Night Football. 

With Watson out with an ACL, Golden basically replaces him, so it is pretty close to a wash considering Golden is a rookie. 

I still have my doubts that Golden will even be that good, or better than any of the other WRs they already have. His best season in college he had 58 receptions and 987 receiving yards, but if you didn't know any better, it really is hard to tell him apart from other average college WRs. Here is a quick comp:

Pat Bryant (ILL) - 54-984-10 (12 games)
Matthew Golden (TEX)- 58-987-9 (16 games)

Bryant was a 3rd Round pick. 

 

9 hours ago, adam said:

With Watson out with an ACL, Golden basically replaces him, so it is pretty close to a wash considering Golden is a rookie. 

I still have my doubts that Golden will even be that good, or better than any of the other WRs they already have. His best season in college he had 58 receptions and 987 receiving yards, but if you didn't know any better, it really is hard to tell him apart from other average college WRs. Here is a quick comp:

Pat Bryant (ILL) - 54-984-10 (12 games)
Matthew Golden (TEX)- 58-987-9 (16 games)

Bryant was a 3rd Round pick. 

 

Production wise, they were equal. But speed wise, Golden had 4.29 to Bryants 4.61.  I'm happier w Burden on our side. 

Golden replaces Watsons 4.36 but sacrifices in some size. I hope our DBs figure out Loves toss ups and start picking those off. 

Golden has great speed and could turn into a beast but lots of speed guys never really succeed at the NFL level.

Yeah Golden is faster, but if you look at all the top WRs, rarely do you find one that didn't have at least one big year in college. In Golden's case, he had none. Having a great year in college doesn't mean it will translate, but if you never had one, rarely do you become a top-end player in the NFL. 

Actually, I can't find a 1st rounder w/o at least a 1K Receiving season in college that is in the top 25 as a WR in the NFL. There were 4x WRs I found without a 1K season, but they will all selected later in the draft (Hill-5th, Metcalf-2nd, Collins/McLaurin-3rd). 

 

57 minutes ago, adam said:

Yeah Golden is faster, but if you look at all the top WRs, rarely do you find one that didn't have at least one big year in college. In Golden's case, he had none. Having a great year in college doesn't mean it will translate, but if you never had one, rarely do you become a top-end player in the NFL. 

Actually, I can't find a 1st rounder w/o at least a 1K Receiving season in college that is in the top 25 as a WR in the NFL. There were 4x WRs I found without a 1K season, but they will all selected later in the draft (Hill-5th, Metcalf-2nd, Collins/McLaurin-3rd). 

 

Wasnt Watson(GB) a speed guy when he came out? 

27 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Wasnt Watson(GB) a speed guy when he came out? 

Yes and he has never lived up to anything. 

On 5/1/2025 at 8:47 AM, adam said:

Revisiting the schedule, now post-draft.

Right off the bat, I will say the Bears split the division, but that could go plus or minus a win, so at worst 2-4, at best 4-2.

Home
DET - W
GB - W
MIN - W
DAL  - L (Really depends on which DAL team shows up, could go either way)
NYG - W (Feels like an easy win)
CLE - W (CLE has 5 QBs, and none are starter quality)
PIT - W (Defense good, offense bad)
NO - W (Feels like one of the easier games on the schedule)

7-1 at home

Away
DET - L
GB  - L
MIN  - L
PHI - L (Super Bowl champs)
WAS - W (should've beaten them with Flus)
BAL - L (Tough matchup)
CIN - W (Feels like a shootout in the making)
SF - L (This game could go either way, give the edge to SF right now)
LVR - W (Should be one of the easier road games)

3-6 on the road

10-7 record, with probably a +/-3, meaning 13-4 if EVERYTHING goes right, and 7-10 if everything goes wrong.

Swapping the MIN - W and DAL - L, the Bears would've been 1-2 heading to LVR. So a win there, then into the bye at 2-2, and this is back to being on track for 10 wins.

So 9 wins seems very realistic, with up to 11 if they take care of the teams they should be (going 6-0), and splitting the division games (going 3-1 for the remaining 4). 

NYG, CLE, NO, CIN, LVR, and WAS  5-1

PIT and SF (w/o Bosa)  1-1, could win both.

BAL and PHI     0-2, could sneak

4 DIV Games (MIN, DET, GBx2)    2-2

On 9/22/2025 at 2:46 PM, adam said:

So 9 wins seems very realistic, with up to 11 if they take care of the teams they should be (going 6-0), and splitting the division games (going 3-1 for the remaining 4). 

NYG, CLE, NO, CIN, LVR, and WAS  5-1

PIT and SF (w/o Bosa)  1-1, could win both.

BAL and PHI     0-2, could sneak

4 DIV Games (MIN, DET, GBx2)    2-2

So far, so good. Still need to take care of business in the Division with a minimum of 2-2 record in the remaining 4 games. Have now won 2 of the games in the top category with 4 left (NYG, NO, CLE, and CIN). All 4 of those games need to be wins now. 4-0.

That leaves PIT and PHI as the top 2 non-Division matchups, and BAL and SF as the other 2. They only need 1 win from these 4 games to win 10, but they could split them.
 

NYG, CLE, NO, CIN = 4-0

BAL and SF (w/o Bosa and Warner)  = 1-1, could win both considering injuries

PIT and PHI  = 0-2, could sneak one

4 DIV Games (MIN, DET, GBx2) = 2-2, need to repay MIN, and then win 1 of 3 vs GB, GB, DET.

That gets them to 10 wins.

4-2
8    @ Baltimore Ravens     - TOSS UP (Allowing a league high 32.3 ppg)    
9    @ Cincinnati Bengals     - WIN (Only scoring 19.4 ppg AND allowing 30.6 ppg)                
10    New York Giants         - WIN (scoring 21.9 ppg AND allowing 25.3 ppg)        
11    @ Minnesota Vikings     - TOSS UP
12    Pittsburgh Steelers     - TOSS UP 
13    @ Philadelphia Eagles     - LOSS         
14    @ Green Bay Packers     - TOSS UP 
15    Cleveland Browns     - WIN (Only scoring 16.1 ppg)
16    Green Bay Packers     - TOSS UP  
17    @ San Francisco 49ers     - TOSS UP (Only scoring 20.7 ppg)
18    Detroit Lions         - LOSS

7-4 with 6 toss-up games, split those for a 10-7 record.

 

On 5/1/2025 at 8:47 AM, adam said:

Away
DET - L
GB  - L
MIN  - L
PHI - L (Super Bowl champs)
WAS - W (should've beaten them with Flus)
BAL - L (Tough matchup)
CIN - W (Feels like a shootout in the making)
SF - L (This game could go either way, give the edge to SF right now)
LVR - W (Should be one of the easier road games)

3-6 on the road

10-7 record, with probably a +/-3, meaning 13-4 if EVERYTHING goes right, and 7-10 if everything goes wrong.

Spot on so far, and even my spidey senses from the offseason felt like this Cincy game was going to be a shootout. Not exactly how I envisioned it back then, but the outcome was the same.

On 10/21/2025 at 12:32 PM, adam said:

4-2
8    @ Baltimore Ravens     - TOSS UP (Allowing a league high 32.3 ppg)    
9    @ Cincinnati Bengals     - WIN (Only scoring 19.4 ppg AND allowing 30.6 ppg)                
10    New York Giants         - WIN (scoring 21.9 ppg AND allowing 25.3 ppg)        
11    @ Minnesota Vikings     - TOSS UP
12    Pittsburgh Steelers     - TOSS UP 
13    @ Philadelphia Eagles     - LOSS         
14    @ Green Bay Packers     - TOSS UP 
15    Cleveland Browns     - WIN (Only scoring 16.1 ppg)
16    Green Bay Packers     - TOSS UP  
17    @ San Francisco 49ers     - TOSS UP (Only scoring 20.7 ppg)
18    Detroit Lions         - LOSS

7-4 with 6 toss-up games, split those for a 10-7 record.

5-3 now with the Giants up next, at home. Have to take care of business at home before the schedule gets really tough.

10    New York Giants         - WIN (Giants have allowed 34, 38, and 33 in their last 3, and the Bears just scored 47).
11    @ Minnesota Vikings     - TOSS UP
12    Pittsburgh Steelers     - TOSS UP 
13    @ Philadelphia Eagles     - LOSS         
14    @ Green Bay Packers     - TOSS UP 
15    Cleveland Browns     - WIN (Only scoring 16.1 ppg)
16    Green Bay Packers     - TOSS UP  
17    @ San Francisco 49ers     - TOSS UP (Only scoring 20.7 ppg)
18    Detroit Lions         - LOSS

 

The more I look at the upcoming games, the more I think the Steelers and 49ers games are winnable. Both of those defenses allow over 5.5 yards per play.

On offense, the Steelers have 620 Completed Air Yards on the season (dead last), which equates to 3.7 yards per completion and they are 19th in Rushing Yards Per Carry. SF is basically completely dependent on McCaffrey in both the run and pass game.