All Too Early Offensive Projections

[adam]

Williams 395-580, 68.1%, 4490 yds, 7.7 Y/A, 31 TD, 8 INT

Moore 85-930 yds, 8 TD
Odunze 75-960 yds, 5 TD
Loveland 70-790 yds, 7 TD (top 5 rookie TE season)
Burden 65-880 yds, 4 TD (top WR3 in NFL)
Kmet 50-480 yds, 4 TD
Swift 30-250 yds, 1 TD
Others 20-200 yds, 2 TD

Williams' numbers would put him 4th in completions, attempts, and yards, 6th in TDs, 5th in INTs, 8th in Y/A, and 9th in Comp%.

All of these are completely scientific and can't be disputed until they are incorrect after the season.

[Stinger226]

I'll take that. I like this thread  better when you're around. You put up a lot of content. One day you're Peter positive and another day Nikki negative. 

I think one player ( have no idea who) becomes Caleb's favorite target. I think Kmet and Burden have more contributions. They will have the least talented DBs  on them so will be open more.

[BearFan PHX]

39 minutes ago, adam said:

Williams 395-580, 68.1%, 4490 yds, 7.7 Y/A, 31 TD, 8 INT

Moore 85-930 yds, 8 TD
Odunze 75-960 yds, 5 TD
Loveland 70-790 yds, 7 TD (top 5 rookie TE season)
Burden 65-880 yds, 4 TD (top WR3 in NFL)
Kmet 50-480 yds, 4 TD
Swift 30-250 yds, 1 TD
Others 20-200 yds, 2 TD

Williams' numbers would put him 4th in completions, attempts, and yards, 6th in TDs, 5th in INTs, 8th in Y/A, and 9th in Comp%.

All of these are completely scientific and can't be disputed until they are incorrect after the season.

4490! Nice!

[BearFan PHX]

10 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

One day you're Peter positive and another day Nikki negative.

What if we just have opinions, positive and negative, and that doesnt mean our entire outlook is positive or negative?

What if we just really love the Bears and every comment isnt evidence of a pattern that we have some kind of personality?

[Stinger226]

40 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

What if we just have opinions, positive and negative, and that doesnt mean our entire outlook is positive or negative?

What if we just really love the Bears and every comment isnt evidence of a pattern that we have some kind of personality?

You just keep it up, I was responding to Adam and you have to throw your bullshit into the conversation that has nothing to do about football.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

You just keep it up, I was responding to Adam and you have to throw your bullshit into the conversation that has nothing to do about football.

I am saying, you seem to think our opinions come from a place of loving or hating. Cant it just be that we see some positive things and some negative things?

You seem to defend every player because theyre on the team. Youre loyal to them. Thats a good trait in general. Its good to have friends like that. But if we think a player is weak and the team would be better with a replacement, thats not being a negative nelly., its just an opinion that comes from wanting the Bears to be good.

People like some things and dislike others - its not a personality flaw - it's just sports talk.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

I am saying, you seem to think our opinions come from a place of loving or hating. Cant it just be that we see some positive things and some negative things?

You seem to defend every player because theyre on the team. Youre loyal to them. Thats a good trait in general. Its good to have friends like that. But if we think a player is weak and the team would be better with a replacement, thats not being a negative nelly., its just an opinion that comes from wanting the Bears to be good.

People like some things and dislike others - its not a personality flaw - it's just sports talk.

I say negative things sometimes. I'm speaking to a general overview of a person's responses. The majority of mine are positive. No one would conclude I'm a( look at the bad .). 

Pick someone on here and  look at the comments in numbers, it will tell you what side of the spectrum they belong. Mostly negative outlooks or like me mainly positive. I was just making an observation on Adam, he goes both ways. 

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I say negative things sometimes. I'm speaking to a general overview of a person's responses. The majority of mine are positive. No one would conclude I'm a( look at the bad .). 

Pick someone on here and  look at the comments in numbers, it will tell you what side of the spectrum they belong. Mostly negative outlooks or like me mainly positive. I was just making an observation on Adam, he goes both ways. 

I go both ways too (that sounds bad! lol) I just think the things I see that i think are good are good, and the things i see that are bad are bad. ANd I dont see things as good or bad because thats my default. Its just how I see it.

The only thing that is consistent in this is that i LOVE the Bears, and I care more about them than i should. Ive seen some incredible things, and a lot of really inept and horrible things over the years. I think we are in a pretty good place right now. No team is ever completely perfect. Every team has holes.

I think LT is a hole right now. Im reading stuff (who knows if its true?!) that Trapilo might play RT and then Wright moves to LT. I dont like the idea of moving Wright myself, but I dont like leaving LT unaddressed, unles Trpilo can play well there. Not reading anything that makes me too confident about that tho.

i think HB is a hole. Im hearing rumors that Nick Chubb might be on his way to Chicago. I dunno if that threatens Swift as much as Johnson, but again, i dont know.

I think GM is a hole. Too many times to me Poles comes across like a little kid. I wouldnt care if he was playing the draft like a maestro, but it sure didnt feel that way to me. What was their plan? Did they like Ersery and Johnson and Skatebo and get fleeced? Or did they not like those players? I have no idea! I can tell you that I liked those players, so if they didnt, I wonder why. But still I dont KNOW.

But like I said earlier, Johnson knows. he was in the middle of it all. If Poles is a weak spot, he will know it, and probably do something about it. Maybe one scenario is that Poles is let go and we promote Ian Cunningham. That could be done quietly, and without too much disruption. Or maybe johnson LOVES how Poles stayed disciplined, even if players targeted slipped away. I dont KNOW. But I know Johnson knows.

Now, I ask you, was that a negative comment about Poles, or a positive one about Cunningham? Was it hating on someone, or loving on the Bears and wanting the best for them? I dont feel pessimistic at all. But I like to see the Bears get better in any way they can. LT, HB and GM look like the most obvious places to me?

[jason]

9 hours ago, adam said:

Williams 395-580, 68.1%, 4490 yds, 7.7 Y/A, 31 TD, 8 INT

Moore 85-930 yds, 8 TD
Odunze 75-960 yds, 5 TD
Loveland 70-790 yds, 7 TD (top 5 rookie TE season)
Burden 65-880 yds, 4 TD (top WR3 in NFL)
Kmet 50-480 yds, 4 TD
Swift 30-250 yds, 1 TD
Others 20-200 yds, 2 TD

Williams' numbers would put him 4th in completions, attempts, and yards, 6th in TDs, 5th in INTs, 8th in Y/A, and 9th in Comp%.

All of these are completely scientific and can't be disputed until they are incorrect after the season.

120 receptions from the TEs? C’mon now. I appreciate optimism since I’m not a very optimistic guy, but that’s insanity. All three Lions TEs didn’t get 75 last year.

[adam]

11 hours ago, jason said:

120 receptions from the TEs? C’mon now. I appreciate optimism since I’m not a very optimistic guy, but that’s insanity. All three Lions TEs didn’t get 75 last year.

These were the top-4 TE duos in 2024:

Kelce+Gray = 137
Bowers+Mayers = 133
McBride+Higgins = 133
Henry+Hooper= 111

11 TEs had 60+ receptions, so I don't think it is out of the question. Loveland may not have 70, but I would not be surprised if Loveland+Kmet exceed what Henry+Hooper did last season with a rookie QB and all-around bad team.

[Stinger226]

18 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I go both ways too (that sounds bad! lol) I just think the things I see that i think are good are good, and the things i see that are bad are bad. ANd I dont see things as good or bad because thats my default. Its just how I see it.

The only thing that is consistent in this is that i LOVE the Bears, and I care more about them than i should. Ive seen some incredible things, and a lot of really inept and horrible things over the years. I think we are in a pretty good place right now. No team is ever completely perfect. Every team has holes.

I think LT is a hole right now. Im reading stuff (who knows if its true?!) that Trapilo might play RT and then Wright moves to LT. I dont like the idea of moving Wright myself, but I dont like leaving LT unaddressed, unles Trpilo can play well there. Not reading anything that makes me too confident about that tho.

i think HB is a hole. Im hearing rumors that Nick Chubb might be on his way to Chicago. I dunno if that threatens Swift as much as Johnson, but again, i dont know.

I think GM is a hole. Too many times to me Poles comes across like a little kid. I wouldnt care if he was playing the draft like a maestro, but it sure didnt feel that way to me. What was their plan? Did they like Ersery and Johnson and Skatebo and get fleeced? Or did they not like those players? I have no idea! I can tell you that I liked those players, so if they didnt, I wonder why. But still I dont KNOW.

But like I said earlier, Johnson knows. he was in the middle of it all. If Poles is a weak spot, he will know it, and probably do something about it. Maybe one scenario is that Poles is let go and we promote Ian Cunningham. That could be done quietly, and without too much disruption. Or maybe johnson LOVES how Poles stayed disciplined, even if players targeted slipped away. I dont KNOW. But I know Johnson knows.

Now, I ask you, was that a negative comment about Poles, or a positive one about Cunningham? Was it hating on someone, or loving on the Bears and wanting the best for them? I dont feel pessimistic at all. But I like to see the Bears get better in any way they can. LT, HB and GM look like the most obvious places to me?

Nothing referring to this post but there have been studies that show people that see a glass half full or half empty actually points to a mind set on how you view anything.

[BearFan PHX]

28 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Nothing referring to this post but there have been studies that show people that see a glass half full or half empty actually points to a mind set on how you view anything.

and not every person is stuck in one way of thinking or the other. Youre attempting to frame all our opinions as not free thinking, but predetermined by a generalized optimistic or pessimistic personality. i think thats not only logically WAY overreaching, but dismissive of our opinions as well.

Why not just take each point as it comes without fitting it into some grand scheme saying it comes from a personality type instead of it just being someones opinion about that topic?

[Stinger226]

First of all, I responded to Adam and he equally goes both sides. ( Observation) 

To say someone is pessimistic or optimistic doesn't mean 100% it could be 60-40 to one side or the other. 

If a therapist was looking at our board they could easily say a person leans one way or the other. It's not a defined statement. It can change according to things going on in your life. It's just an observation. 

Example Jason learns half empty and he makes note of it himself.

No one would ever mistake me as a pessimist.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

First of all, I responded to Adam and he equally goes both sides. ( Observation) 

To say someone is pessimistic or optimistic doesn't mean 100% it could be 60-40 to one side or the other. 

If a therapist was looking at our board they could easily say a person leans one way or the other. It's not a defined statement. It can change according to things going on in your life. It's just an observation. 

Example Jason learns half empty and he makes note of it himself.

No one would ever mistake me as a pessimist.

I dont think any therapist would agree with that. people are not just in an optimistic mood or a pessimistic mood and thats what makes them think what they think about football moves.

People just have opinions. They arent all manifestations of some inner positive or negative worldview. You make it sound like the opinions are involuntary responses rather than reasoned ideas.

Maybe some people are, but lots of people just think about the facts and try to reach conclusions without being driven by some inner theme.

[adam]

I was curious to see who the last few 5K Passing Teams had for skill position receivers, and how those groups compare to what the Bears have on paper right now. 

Outside of the super high-end All-Pro seasons for Kelce and Godwin, the other numbers for the rest of the players were not as high as I expected. Going into 2025, the Bears 5th best pass-catching option is Swift or Kmet, so the lesser of the two is the Bears 6th-best pass-catching option. That is unprecedented, even comparing the Bears 2025 projections with some of the best passing offenses of recent history.

So there is a good chance that the projections I posted are actually on the low side. One other interesting note, none of the 4 teams listed here had a 1K Rushing RB that season. 5K seems absurd considering the Bears have yet to have a 4K passer, but I really think the 4500 projected is very realistic considering the amount of playmakers the Bears have as pass catchers, the improved O-Line, and Johnson's system. 

Take a look at let me know what you think.

KC 2022
Smith-Schuster 78-933-3
Valdes-Scantling 32-687-2
Hardman 25-297-4
Moore 22-250-0
Watson 15-315-2
Toney 13-171-2
WR 185-2653

Kelce 110-1338-12
Gray 28-299-1
TE 138-1637

McKinnon 56-512-9
Edwards-Helaire 17-151-3
RB 73-663

LAC 2021
Allen 106-1138-6
Williams 76-1146-9
Palmer 33-353-4
Guyton 31-448-3
WR 246-3085

Cook 48-564-4
Parham 20-190-3
Anderson 16-165-1
TE 84-919

Ekeler 70-647-8
Jackson 22-178-0
RB 92-825

TB 2021
Godwin 98-1103-5
Evans 74-1035-14
Brown 42-545-4
Johnson 36-360-0
Perriman 11-167-1
WR 261-3210

Gronkowski 55-802-6
Brate 30-245-4
Howard 14-135-1
TE 99-1182

Fournette 69-454-2
Bernard 23-123-3
RB 92-577

TB 2019
Godwin 86-1333-9
Evans 67-1157-8
Perriman 36-645-6
Watson 15-159-2
Miller 13-200-1
WR 217-3494

Brate 36-311-4
Howard 34-459-1
TE 70-770

Ogunbowale 35-286-0
Jones 31-309-0
Barber 16-115-1
RB 82-710

Best Single Receiver: Kelce 110-1338-12
Best 2nd Option: Williams 76-1146-9
Best 3rd Option: Ekeler 70-647-8
Best 4th Option: Gronkowski 55-802-6 or Fournette 69-454-2
Best 5th option: Brown 42-545-4

Best WR Group: 2019 TB WR 217-3494-26  (Godwin, Evans, Perriman)
Best TE Group: 2022 KC TE 138-1637-13 (Kelce, Gray)
Best RB Group: 2021 LAC RB 92-825-8 (Ekeler, Jackson)

[Stinger226]

On 4/30/2025 at 12:11 AM, BearFan PHX said:

I dont think any therapist would agree with that. people are not just in an optimistic mood or a pessimistic mood and thats what makes them think what they think about football moves.

People just have opinions. They arent all manifestations of some inner positive or negative worldview. You make it sound like the opinions are involuntary responses rather than reasoned ideas.

Maybe some people are, but lots of people just think about the facts and try to reach conclusions without being driven by some inner theme.

i was traveling so I never responded to this. there is absolutely positive and negative aspects to human nature that everyone leans one way or  the other. That is where the half glass empty / half full analogy came from.  ;By the way it is always changing according to how we deal with life. Its not a true statement constantly. I  plumbed for 50 yrs but went to school to be a therapist and took enough sociology courses to know what that is . 

Example: I remember whe Fields had that game where he had 16 consecative complitations and people were talking about it and your comment was ( that was good but he wasnt hitting his first read very often_) that quote is not exact but something like that . Everyone was liking it and that's what you come up with because you didnt like him and was looking for something to say negative. The only reason I remember it because it was an odd thing to say after throwing 16 in a row and looking like he could be our QB of the future.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I was curious to see who the last few 5K Passing Teams had for skill position receivers, and how those groups compare to what the Bears have on paper right now. 

Outside of the super high-end All-Pro seasons for Kelce and Godwin, the other numbers for the rest of the players were not as high as I expected. Going into 2025, the Bears 5th best pass-catching option is Swift or Kmet, so the lesser of the two is the Bears 6th-best pass-catching option. That is unprecedented, even comparing the Bears 2025 projections with some of the best passing offenses of recent history.

So there is a good chance that the projections I posted are actually on the low side. One other interesting note, none of the 4 teams listed here had a 1K Rushing RB that season. 5K seems absurd considering the Bears have yet to have a 4K passer, but I really think the 4500 projected is very realistic considering the amount of playmakers the Bears have as pass catchers, the improved O-Line, and Johnson's system. 

Take a look at let me know what you think.

KC 2022
Smith-Schuster 78-933-3
Valdes-Scantling 32-687-2
Hardman 25-297-4
Moore 22-250-0
Watson 15-315-2
Toney 13-171-2
WR 185-2653

Kelce 110-1338-12
Gray 28-299-1
TE 138-1637

McKinnon 56-512-9
Edwards-Helaire 17-151-3
RB 73-663

LAC 2021
Allen 106-1138-6
Williams 76-1146-9
Palmer 33-353-4
Guyton 31-448-3
WR 246-3085

Cook 48-564-4
Parham 20-190-3
Anderson 16-165-1
TE 84-919

Ekeler 70-647-8
Jackson 22-178-0
RB 92-825

TB 2021
Godwin 98-1103-5
Evans 74-1035-14
Brown 42-545-4
Johnson 36-360-0
Perriman 11-167-1
WR 261-3210

Gronkowski 55-802-6
Brate 30-245-4
Howard 14-135-1
TE 99-1182

Fournette 69-454-2
Bernard 23-123-3
RB 92-577

TB 2019
Godwin 86-1333-9
Evans 67-1157-8
Perriman 36-645-6
Watson 15-159-2
Miller 13-200-1
WR 217-3494

Brate 36-311-4
Howard 34-459-1
TE 70-770

Ogunbowale 35-286-0
Jones 31-309-0
Barber 16-115-1
RB 82-710

Best Single Receiver: Kelce 110-1338-12
Best 2nd Option: Williams 76-1146-9
Best 3rd Option: Ekeler 70-647-8
Best 4th Option: Gronkowski 55-802-6 or Fournette 69-454-2
Best 5th option: Brown 42-545-4

Best WR Group: 2019 TB WR 217-3494-26  (Godwin, Evans, Perriman)
Best TE Group: 2022 KC TE 138-1637-13 (Kelce, Gray)
Best RB Group: 2021 LAC RB 92-825-8 (Ekeler, Jackson)

Great post to look at with the possiblity of that happening in the next few yrs. Where did you find that , I would like to know how much of a running game they had those yrs. In 2022 KC had almost 2000 yds rushing

[adam]

46 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Great post to look at with the possiblity of that happening in the next few yrs. Where did you find that , I would like to know how much of a running game they had those yrs. In 2022 KC had almost 2000 yds rushing

I looked it all up myself. I was trying to see how good the 3rd-6th pass catching options were on those teams. Did they just have 1-2 elite receivers, than average players, or just a bunch of average guys but with a lot of depth. What I found is that the Bears technically have the deepest pass receiving group with 40+ reception potential I could find, ever. That's if Moore, Odunze, Burden, Kmet, Loveland, and Swift all catch 40 balls. That would be a first as far as I can tell, still going back in time.

For the rushing info:

In 2022, KC won the SB, went 14-3, had the #1 offense, but their leading rusher was Pacheco with only 830 yds rushing. In total, the team had 1,970 yards rushing between Pacheco, Mahomes, Edwards-Helaire, and McKinnon. 

In 2021, LAC had Ekeler with 911 yds as their leading rusher; as a team they had 1,834 rushing yards. 

In 2021, TB had Fournette with 812 rushing yards, and the team had 1,672 rushing yards. 

Then in 2019, TB had Ronald Jones as their lead back with 724 yards, and the team had 1,521 rushing yards. 

So the range of rushing yards for 5K Passer Teams was as low as 1,521 with Winston in 2019 to 1,970 with Mahomes in 2022.

In comparison, the Bears had 1,734 in 2024, which is basically the median between the high and lows from the listed teams with a terrible O-Line and offensive scheme.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

i was traveling so I never responded to this. there is absolutely positive and negative aspects to human nature that everyone leans one way or  the other. That is where the half glass empty / half full analogy came from.  ;By the way it is always changing according to how we deal with life. Its not a true statement constantly. I  plumbed for 50 yrs but went to school to be a therapist and took enough sociology courses to know what that is . 

Example: I remember whe Fields had that game where he had 16 consecative complitations and people were talking about it and your comment was ( that was good but he wasnt hitting his first read very often_) that quote is not exact but something like that . Everyone was liking it and that's what you come up with because you didnt like him and was looking for something to say negative. The only reason I remember it because it was an odd thing to say after throwing 16 in a row and looking like he could be our QB of the future.

total BS.

You cannot boil every person down into a negative person or a positive person. You are saying every opinion they have isnt authentic, it's just in harmony with this incredibly oversimplified world view.

This is not taught in psychology.

Also, the reason i didnt like Fields isnt because i have a negative personality, its because I could clearly see that he sucked. And time has proven that out too. Im surprised youre still trying to argue this.

But no, it is not that everything everyone says is a fake opportunity to prove their worldview was right. Instead, people look at facts, and make opinions about those facts.

So you have it backwards. I am not a negative person who was looking for evidence to hate of Fields. I am a football fan who could see that despite the stats, Fields sucked. Fields sucking came first, then my opinion came after that.

Do you remember when you didnt like Caleb, and I was telling everyone he was gonna be great? Was that because Im a positive person who only sees the good, and you were a negative person who only sees the bad?

Your theory here is a self serving one meant to dismiss the substance of any of our opinions and instead attribute them to some deep binary choice that we are either positive or negative people.

It's ridiculous, and insulting, and more than that it's really wrong. if your psychology classes taught you that you can neatly put every human into an overgeneralized box like that, then you got ripped off.

Every day i make both positive and negative comments in here. Like everyone, I am a fully dimensional person with all kinds of thoughts. Your amateur psychological evaluation is nonsense.

[Stinger226]

41 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

total BS.

You cannot boil every person down into a negative person or a positive person. You are saying every opinion they have isnt authentic, it's just in harmony with this incredibly oversimplified world view.

This is not taught in psychology.

Also, the reason i didnt like Fields isnt because i have a negative personality, its because I could clearly see that he sucked. And time has proven that out too. Im surprised youre still trying to argue this.

But no, it is not that everything everyone says is a fake opportunity to prove their worldview was right. Instead, people look at facts, and make opinions about those facts.

So you have it backwards. I am not a negative person who was looking for evidence to hate of Fields. I am a football fan who could see that despite the stats, Fields sucked. Fields sucking came first, then my opinion came after that.

Do you remember when you didnt like Caleb, and I was telling everyone he was gonna be great? Was that because Im a positive person who only sees the good, and you were a negative person who only sees the bad?

Your theory here is a self serving one meant to dismiss the substance of any of our opinions and instead attribute them to some deep binary choice that we are either positive or negative people.

It's ridiculous, and insulting, and more than that it's really wrong. if your psychology classes taught you that you can neatly put every human into an overgeneralized box like that, then you got ripped off.

Every day i make both positive and negative comments in here. Like everyone, I am a fully dimensional person with all kinds of thoughts. Your amateur psychological evaluation is nonsense.

You just see what you want to see and never understand my points. You turn them into your  thought process.  Its not even worth discussing things other than football with you. I wont make that mistake again. Actual this started with a comment I made about Adam, and you have to jump in with your negative opinion on my point. Some things are just beyond your understanding.