Cole Kmet

[Stinger226]

PFF came out with their TEs ranking for 2025. Kmet is ranked 29th.  Kincaid 10th

Dalton Kincaid  2024 stats: 44 catches of 71 targets./448 yards- 2 TDs/ 2 drops/ 10.2 yards per reception

Cole Kmet 2024  stats: 47 of 55 targets/474 yards- 4 TDs / 1 drop/ 10.1 yards per reception

Dalton Kincaid 2023 stats: 71 of 93/ 673 yards- 2 TDs / 9.2 yards per reception  

Cole Kmet 2023 stats: 73 of 90/ 719/ 6 TDs /     9.8 per reception

Kincaid had Josh Allen throwing to him. Kmet had Fields and Williams throwing to him. 

Can someone explain had they graded this with Kmet clearly the better TE? 

2 year totals    Kincaid 116 of 164 / 1021 yards/ 4 TDs

                         Kmet 120 of 145 /  1193 yards and 10 TDs

[Mongo3451]

The addition of Coleston Loveland...

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

The addition of Coleston Loveland...

He was ranked 23 . If you look at BJ run offenses, TE is an important position and if we're projecting, wouldnt you have Colston ranked higher than 23 ? 

Last year LaPorta was ranked 6th. Cole Kmet was ranked 18th, Kincaid was 28th. Last year was a bad year for Kmet due to a dysfuntional offense and rookie QB. Taysom Hill was ranked 15th with 23 reception/ 187 yards/ 6 TDs

PFF just puts content out there that is hard to wrap your head around. If you projected a split in the total TE reps, I would say both would land in the midteens. 

[adam]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

He was ranked 23 . If you look at BJ run offenses, TE is an important position and if we're projecting, wouldnt you have Colston ranked higher than 23 ? 

Last year LaPorta was ranked 6th. Cole Kmet was ranked 18th, Kincaid was 28th. Last year was a bad year for Kmet due to a dysfuntional offense and rookie QB. Taysom Hill was ranked 15th with 23 reception/ 187 yards/ 6 TDs

PFF just puts content out there that is hard to wrap your head around. If you projected a split in the total TE reps, I would say both would land in the midteens. 

The media in general hates Kmet. Even with Loveland, Kmet is still a top 20 TE. 

[Stinger226]

13 minutes ago, adam said:

The media in general hates Kmet. Even with Loveland, Kmet is still a top 20 TE. 

If Caleb is humming both TEs should be 10 to 15 as far as stats. With DJ and Rome running down field, one of the TEs should be open every play.

[adam]

PFF has Andrews at #4 AND Likely at #9.  That is crazy talk. 

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, adam said:

PFF has Andrews at #4 AND Likely at #9.  That is crazy talk. 

Likely at 9, this is clearly a receiving biased ranking.  

[BearFan PHX]

PFF is random. People love it because they do a lot of clear rankings and ratings, and they use numbers, so they are fun and easy to understand an compare.

But PFF is nonsense.

Now, despite my feelings about what I think Cole Kmet really is, *IF* he was to break out and be a great player, then we might be looking at film of the Patriots when they had Gronkowski and Hernandez for ideas. I'm sure there are a lot of ways to use two great TEs, especially with Moore and Odunze on the outside.

So I understand the excitement from those that think Kmet has that kind of skill set.

Of course, neither one is Gronkowski, especially Loveland being more of a tall and nifty slot receiver, so the same concepts wouldn't map over 1 to 1, but the matchup problems are obvious, and a true dual TE threat is a real problem for defenses.

If Loveland could be a Tony Gonzalez type for us, that alone is gonna be great for Caleb and our offense.

[AZ54]

21 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

PFF is random. People love it because they do a lot of clear rankings and ratings, and they use numbers, so they are fun and easy to understand an compare.

But PFF is nonsense.

Now, despite my feelings about what I think Cole Kmet really is, *IF* he was to break out and be a great player, then we might be looking at film of the Patriots when they had Gronkowski and Hernandez for ideas. I'm sure there are a lot of ways to use two great TEs, especially with Moore and Odunze on the outside.

So I understand the excitement from those that think Kmet has that kind of skill set.

Of course, neither one is Gronkowski, especially Loveland being more of a tall and nifty slot receiver, so the same concepts wouldn't map over 1 to 1, but the matchup problems are obvious, and a true dual TE threat is a real problem for defenses.

If Loveland could be a Tony Gonzalez type for us, that alone is gonna be great for Caleb and our offense.

I don't think anybody is over stating what Kmet can do as a receiver.  He's good there, has really good hands but doesn't have the agility that you see with Loveland.  Kmet isn't elite either as a blocker.  He's a jack of all trades but that is still valuable for a play caller especially when paired with Loveland between the 20s.  Both TEs will be effective in the redzone too.  If anyone knows how to use these two TEs effectively it's Ben Johnson.  

[BearFan PHX]

6 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I don't think anybody is over stating what Kmet can do as a receiver.  He's good there, has really good hands but doesn't have the agility that you see with Loveland.  Kmet isn't elite either as a blocker.  He's a jack of all trades but that is still valuable for a play caller especially when paired with Loveland between the 20s.  Both TEs will be effective in the redzone too.  If anyone knows how to use these two TEs effectively it's Ben Johnson.  

Yeah Im not pointing the finger at anyone here, I dont hear anyone here saying he is a true stud, obviously weve had discussions about future trades (or not!) for him, but Im not saying anyone is overstating him.

I dont know if I agree he has "good" hands or anything, BUT I was just saying that if Kmet plays well, I totally agree Johnson will know how to use them, and i was even thinking of some of what the Patriots did with Gronkowski and Hernandez when they had them both. So I agree there too.

I'm not betting the farm on Kmet, but I don't think it is impossible for him to play well. I just think he would have progressed more by now, so he's kind of topping out, way short of his expectations or contract, but if he DOES mature this offseason, having 2 TEs that can really play will be a fun toy for Johnson for sure.

I just think he's gonna have to show quick, this train is leaving the station, and they aren't gonna wait around for the light to come on for Kmet. I always though he had potential, but i think we all agree that so far, he hasn't really lived up to his draft status. I really hope he does! That would be an extra weapon Im not counting on right now, and Johnson would be even scarier with yet another dimension.

[Stinger226]

6 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yeah Im not pointing the finger at anyone here, I dont hear anyone here saying he is a true stud, obviously weve had discussions about future trades (or not!) for him, but Im not saying anyone is overstating him.

I dont know if I agree he has "good" hands or anything, BUT I was just saying that if Kmet plays well, I totally agree Johnson will know how to use them, and i was even thinking of some of what the Patriots did with Gronkowski and Hernandez when they had them both. So I agree there too.

I'm not betting the farm on Kmet, but I don't think it is impossible for him to play well. I just think he would have progressed more by now, so he's kind of topping out, way short of his expectations or contract, but if he DOES mature this offseason, having 2 TEs that can really play will be a fun toy for Johnson for sure.

I just think he's gonna have to show quick, this train is leaving the station, and they aren't gonna wait around for the light to come on for Kmet. I always though he had potential, but i think we all agree that so far, he hasn't really lived up to his draft status. I really hope he does! That would be an extra weapon Im not counting on right now, and Johnson would be even scarier with yet another dimension.

I understand when you say Loveland is a better recieving TE than Kmet, but you keep saying he hasnt proven himself. He did that in 2023 which prompted his contract. 73/719/6 that was good for the 9th ranked TE that year. Last year his stats regressed when he had 35 less targets. He doesnt have good hands, he has great hands. Literally led TEs the last two years in catch rate.

No one is saying he is Kelce, Kittle or even Bowers but is a high end TE in the league.

[BearFan PHX]

11 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I understand when you say Loveland is a better recieving TE than Kmet, but you keep saying he hasnt proven himself. He did that in 2023 which prompted his contract. 73/719/6 that was good for the 9th ranked TE that year. Last year his stats regressed when he had 35 less targets. He doesnt have good hands, he has great hands. Literally led TEs the last two years in catch rate.

No one is saying he is Kelce, Kittle or even Bowers but is a high end TE in the league.

It's all been said over and over. The reasons i think what i think are clear, and the stats you're using to bolster your argument are clear too. There's no need to go around in circles so i won't repeat it all again.

Time will tell what happens.

[Stinger226]

True, the only reason I posted it is because PFF just put their ranking out

[BearFan PHX]

PFF is random though

[adam]

14 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

PFF is random though

There are some good parts to PFF, but you have to dig. The grades from a macro view are ok, but still subjective. However, they do have some advanced analytics numbers that are based on real stats (comparable to NFL Next Gen Stats).

[BearFan PHX]

45 minutes ago, adam said:

There are some good parts to PFF, but you have to dig. The grades from a macro view are ok, but still subjective. However, they do have some advanced analytics numbers that are based on real stats (comparable to NFL Next Gen Stats).

my contention is that the next gen stats of PFF are not valid. That's because they amplify noise in the signal to the point that the output is mostly random.

Even looking at a well known non PFF originated stat like QB rating. It makes assumptions about what style a good QB should be. It weights certain things against other things, but like all stats, it cant include context.

If, for example, you look at Brett Favre's interceptions, they would make you think the guy wasnt careful with the ball. A lot of people fall into the trap, calling him a gunslinger. But if you look deeper, you find that a high percentage of his interceptions happened near the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters, especially when losing. You can also see how many game winners he threw.

An interception in the last 2 minutes, down 10 points is really different from one up 10 points in the 3rd quarter. But the stat doesnt take that into account.

Barry Sanders has the most runs for a loss in NFL history. Thats a bad stat, but in context, you want him on your team.

Similarly, even if PFF has some next gen stuff that starts with real world objective data, there is nothing that says the way they relate that data provides a useful outcome.

When I see some of the claims PFF makes, I find them laughable, and so i dont trust their math to provide outputs that are helpful or even describe what kind of job a player is doing.

I do assume PFF wants to provide helpful data and rankings, but I think they make too much out of too few data points, and the relational algorithms that process that data are flawed and always would be. And this makes sense because if there were clear statistics that were more predictive, we'd all be talking about them, and they'd show on the field.

It's seductive to use stats that seem to have such clear claims in numbers and rankings, but In the end, no stat can really capture the truth of how a player performs the way watching the tape can?

[adam]

 

52 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

my contention is that the next gen stats of PFF are not valid. That's because they amplify noise in the signal to the point that the output is mostly random.

Even looking at a well known non PFF originated stat like QB rating. It makes assumptions about what style a good QB should be. It weights certain things against other things, but like all stats, it cant include context.

If, for example, you look at Brett Favre's interceptions, they would make you think the guy wasnt careful with the ball. A lot of people fall into the trap, calling him a gunslinger. But if you look deeper, you find that a high percentage of his interceptions happened near the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters, especially when losing. You can also see how many game winners he threw.

An interception in the last 2 minutes, down 10 points is really different from one up 10 points in the 3rd quarter. But the stat doesnt take that into account.

Barry Sanders has the most runs for a loss in NFL history. Thats a bad stat, but in context, you want him on your team.

Similarly, even if PFF has some next gen stuff that starts with real world objective data, there is nothing that says the way they relate that data provides a useful outcome.

When I see some of the claims PFF makes, I find them laughable, and so i dont trust their math to provide outputs that are helpful or even describe what kind of job a player is doing.

I do assume PFF wants to provide helpful data and rankings, but I think they make too much out of too few data points, and the relational algorithms that process that data are flawed and always would be. And this makes sense because if there were clear statistics that were more predictive, we'd all be talking about them, and they'd show on the field.

It's seductive to use stats that seem to have such clear claims in numbers and rankings, but In the end, no stat can really capture the truth of how a player performs the way watching the tape can?

I agree. It is more of a novelty and should not be used as your sole source.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

 

I agree. It is more of a novelty and should not be used as your sole source.

I think it confuses things more than it helps them, but obviously everyone talks about them, and I am certainly not here to tell anyone not to!

But neither do i think a PFF ranking or stat is "evidence" in a discussion, debate or argument? I dont' even see it as a confirming piece of evidence to pile on after something more reasonable says something. That's why i say they are random and not wrong. Sometimes they are right, but not because of math, just because of luck in my opinion.

I mean these are the people that told us that Charles Leno gave us performances that ranked near the top of the league!

[ASHKUM BEAR]

What happened to Kmet from 2023 to 2024?   Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze took his targets.  Caleb and the Bears may have been better off giving Kmet more opportunities with his catch rate. If Odunze can convert half of those misses into catches, he'd be a 1000 plus player.

2023

DJ Moore  136  96 1364

Cole Kmet 90 77 719

Darnell Mooney  61 31 414

2024 

DJ Moore 140 98 966

Keenan Allen 121 70 744

Rome Odunze 101 54 734

Cole Kmet 55 47  474

 

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

What happened to Kmet from 2023 to 2024?   Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze took his targets.  Caleb and the Bears may have been better off giving Kmet more opportunities with his catch rate. If Odunze can convert half of those misses into catches, he'd be a 1000 plus player.

2023

DJ Moore  136  96 1364

Cole Kmet 90 77 719

Darnell Mooney  61 31 414

2024 

DJ Moore 140 98 966

Keenan Allen 121 70 744

Rome Odunze 101 54 734

Cole Kmet 55 47  474

 

Im not positive on this statement but I think rookie QBs have a tendency to lean on TEs in thier first years. Shorter throws, quicker release. I think the problem with Waldron was to dump all the offense on Caleb all at once and let him choose downfield routes that take longer to develop when we had a shakey OL. That resulted in so many sacks. In turn in Washington, they had more quit reads that amounted in first reads or run type of scheme. Proved to me more successful for the rookie,

[BearFan PHX]

37 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Im not positive on this statement but I think rookie QBs have a tendency to lean on TEs in thier first years. Shorter throws, quicker release. I think the problem with Waldron was to dump all the offense on Caleb all at once and let him choose downfield routes that take longer to develop when we had a shakey OL. That resulted in so many sacks. In turn in Washington, they had more quit reads that amounted in first reads or run type of scheme. Proved to me more successful for the rookie,

I agree with this for sure.