The Ben Johnson Effect

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

They will start dumping resources that way this offseason, and if they can shed a DJ or Kmet, don't be shocked. Sure having them is great and keeps continuity, but there are a lot of holes on that D that draft picks cant fill. 

We differ in what we think the bears will do. I predict they restructure both contracts and keep them one more year because just as the offense is starting to look great, they won't want to take a step back. Of course I might be wrong but until something happens it's just speculation anyways.

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, adam said:

So much love from national media lately.

I love that meme 

[BearFan PHX]

I really like DJ Moore - especially the past few weeks. He's been balling out for us.

I just know that without a pass rush, we are unlikely to be a real threat for the super bowl. i mean this year might we scratch our way there? its not impossible! Im here for it!

But i think its a lot more credible going foward, if this team has a defense.

And so I dont pick DJ Moore because hes the worst WR we have. FAR from it. He might be the best.

But he's the one with the $24.5M payday. And for that reason ONLY I think he's trade bait And would clear up $16.5M in cap space for us.

It's nothing more than that. i think hes a fantastic player. The entire argument is only his cap hit, and how badly the other side of the ball needs that money.

[Stinger226]

It will be interesting to see what the bears choose to do.

[adam]

The good thing is, this is still the low end of this. The roster can still improve and players will become more familiar with the system. So if they need to move on from a key contributor to make the overall team better, I totally understand it.

If you are weighing contract value to team value, you can't have too many losing propositions, otherwise the team can fall apart with 1 or 2 key injuries. That does make several of the higher paid guys expendable unless they are willing to rework their contracts get more guaranteed money with less AAV. 

[Stinger226]

12 minutes ago, adam said:

The good thing is, this is still the low end of this. The roster can still improve and players will become more familiar with the system. So if they need to move on from a key contributor to make the overall team better, I totally understand it.

If you are weighing contract value to team value, you can't have too many losing propositions, otherwise the team can fall apart with 1 or 2 key injuries. That does make several of the higher paid guys expendable unless they are willing to rework their contracts get more guaranteed money with less AAV. 

Just my opinion but I think they keep most of the assets on the offensive side of the. Like you said a key injury to a couple weapons and we're pulling people off the street which won't be good for continuity for a leading offense in the league next year.

Look at the mess in KC, they still have a great QB and great coach but their WRs OL was missing people. Didn't finish well. Depth is important. 

The defense is a big mess but with injured players coming back and people like Booker getting better, they may not see that a big deal may have to high of a price and add 3 or 4 pieces in the draft. I think they figure it out without Garrett or Crosby. It won't be the first time I'm been wrong on my guesses before. It will be an interesting off-season especially if we get farther in the playoffs.

[BearFan PHX]

I know people are fans, and love our players, but at some point the rah rah stuff has to give way to reality.

We are not going anywhere, and we will waste Caleb Williams if the plan is to come back with the same defense again next year and just try harder. Thats not a plan for winning, it's just being in love with the players without considering that other more talented players could be on our roster. And then we could love THOSE guys and win games.

This defense is slow and was built as a cover 2 zone team. We need to clean house on the defensive side this offseason, and that is going to require some money.

[CrackerDog]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

This defense is slow and was built as a cover 2 zone team. We need to clean house on the defensive side this offseason, and that is going to require some money.

It’s no secret that a lot of this can be solved with some edge rushers who can actually do more than smell the QB once in a while.  Free agency and draft that’s my focus.  

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, CrackerDog said:

It’s no secret that a lot of this can be solved with some edge rushers who can actually do more than smell the QB once in a while.  Free agency and draft that’s my focus.  

For sure, any defensive scheme requires a pass rush, and any defense is made better when you have one.

Of course that's edge rushers and pocket collapsing DTs as well.

We can look at our LBs and DBs too. No one is really a core player that youll still have in 4 years (including re-signing), except maybe Booker. Even Byard has an expiration date due to age.

Of course we wont be able to replace everyone, but anyone except Booker is a potential casualty or trade bait i think.

And I dont think you can count on Booker to be your primary edge either. Hes probably DE3 fighting to become DE2.

As to how to acquire these players, we have no cap space right now. We can draft some players, but they wont be ready to dominate out of the box, especially picking 32nd  No better than 25th I think?

Were gonna need to get some players off of the books to afford Free Agents, so they might as well be trades so you get something else in return too?

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

11 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Just my opinion but I think they keep most of the assets on the offensive side of the. Like you said a key injury to a couple weapons and we're pulling people off the street which won't be good for continuity for a leading offense in the league next year.

Look at the mess in KC, they still have a great QB and great coach but their WRs OL was missing people. Didn't finish well. Depth is important. 

The defense is a big mess but with injured players coming back and people like Booker getting better, they may not see that a big deal may have to high of a price and add 3 or 4 pieces in the draft. I think they figure it out without Garrett or Crosby. It won't be the first time I'm been wrong on my guesses before. It will be an interesting off-season especially if we get farther in the playoffs.

The Bears will eventually fade like KC once Caleb gets paid. Unless they can hit on draft picks every time at the right rythem. When I suggest trading a beloved Bear star, it is because there are rising younger players at their position and while their value is still modestly good for our beloved, we could get more in return now.   The Bears need 2 starting caliber DTs, one DE, one or two S, one or two LBs, and a CB.  They have extra WRs and maybe a TE that can replaced with younger/cheaper. 

3 or 4 defensive starters might be draft picks, but they will also need some veterans that fit. Not much in the bank unless they can find some teams to trade with. 

Its just my thought on how to logically do this.  Kmet is one of my favorites, so I would love him to retire a Bear.  But sometimes tough decisions need to be made.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

The Bears will eventually fade like KC once Caleb gets paid. Unless they can hit on draft picks every time at the right rythem. When I suggest trading a beloved Bear star, it is because there are rising younger players at their position and while their value is still modestly good for our beloved, we could get more in return now.   The Bears need 2 starting caliber DTs, one DE, one or two S, one or two LBs, and a CB.  They have extra WRs and maybe a TE that can replaced with younger/cheaper. 

3 or 4 defensive starters might be draft picks, but they will also need some veterans that fit. Not much in the bank unless they can find some teams to trade with. 

Its just my thought on how to logically do this.  Kmet is one of my favorites, so I would love him to retire a Bear.  But sometimes tough decisions need to be made.

That's all on the table and we honestly don't know who they value the most. ( I ) don't think the bears are going to mess with the offense. I could be wrong, it's not that I don't understand what you're saying, I just think they will address the problem in a different way. The offense has put us into the position to go to the SB with a bad defense. Reality is Parsons didn't get GB in this game ( if we traded and put our assets into one player, he could be hurt too) . Crosby and Garrett are not in the playoffs. Some fans think one player will put over the top. I don't think the bears think that. We are all just projecting here, I'm a fan whether they do or don't. It's just a guess.

[jason]

On 1/13/2026 at 6:57 PM, ASHKUM BEAR said:

They will start dumping resources that way this offseason, and if they can shed a DJ or Kmet, don't be shocked. Sure having them is great and keeps continuity, but there are a lot of holes on that D that draft picks cant fill. 

After DJ’s total commitment to “F the packers,” and TWO different game winning catches against the packers, I can’t see how they let him go. Those catches are historical. We will be talking about the wildcard game and catch for 20 years.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, jason said:

After DJ’s total commitment to “F the packers,” and TWO different game winning catches against the packers, I can’t see how they let him go. Those catches are historical. We will be talking about the wildcard game and catch for 20 years.

I think he is a consistent playmaker that they value in this offense. They will restructure DJ and Kmet plus a couple OL to get money to help the defense.

[Mongo3451]

6 hours ago, jason said:

After DJ’s total commitment to “F the packers,” and TWO different game winning catches against the packers, I can’t see how they let him go. Those catches are historical. We will be talking about the wildcard game and catch for 20 years.

Who caught the Minnesota Miracle?

[Lucky Luciano]

22 hours ago, adam said:

The good thing is, this is still the low end of this. The roster can still improve and players will become more familiar with the system. So if they need to move on from a key contributor to make the overall team better, I totally understand it.

If you are weighing contract value to team value, you can't have too many losing propositions, otherwise the team can fall apart with 1 or 2 key injuries. That does make several of the higher paid guys expendable unless they are willing to rework their contracts get more guaranteed money with less AAV. 

statman: what is the average increase in salary cap per year and the average high end salary for core players by position?

every year we see cap strapped teams resigning their key players when we think there is no way possible for them to get under the cap. if they can, why can't we? screw the salary cap.

that said... look at mahomes when the quality of his WR's declined to a great degree because they dumped his go to players. the chiefs WR's dropped more balls than anyone i can think of during these seasons. he relied mostly on kelse his TE. if we can't slot two or three key defensive players into our current cap for the future while caleb is in his rookie contract keeping our receiving core we are not trying hard enough.

i say we keep our core of receivers and tight ends and think of how our offense would operate if we didn't and a key WR/TE is injured or has a career ending injury. we won't have the higher draft picks to replace them.

also, we are not paying a RB top dollar compared to the best in the league. that has to count for something. add to this, we have a starting quality backup QB. if we couldn't get a first round pick out of him in the future i would be amazed.

[Stinger226]

Everything is off the table going into 2027 but for next year, if they keep this offense intact, we could be a  scoring machine. Next year is Caleb's breakout year 4500 yards, 40 TD passes, 67% . Why would they mess with that?

With a bad defense, we literally could go to the SB with our offense 

[jason]

7 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Who caught the Minnesota Miracle?

A. That’s not Green Bay 

B. That was 40 years ago

C. Dennis McKinnon

[adam]

I honestly don't think they will make any sweeping changes this offseason. The longer you can ride out contracts, the less chance at dead money near the end. Caleb is in Year 3 in 2026, 4 in 2027, and they will either go the 5th Year Option route or extend him after Year 4 which makes Year 5 payout more than it would've but lessens the cap hit for the remainder of the deal. Assuming they extend him early, 2027 seems to be the year that you would start cutting dudes to accelerate the dead money into 2027 protecting 2028 for Caleb's pay raise.