Mock Drafts

[BearFan PHX]

I found a new draft simulator. I dunno if its good or realistic, but Ive enjoyed playing around with it.

Of course, without Free Agency it can only mean so much. But I keep drafting 

1 DT Kayden McDonald Ohio State
2 Edge Zion Young Missouri
3 ILB Jacob Rodriguez Texas Tech

I havent done any homework, so I might love or hate these guys in a couple months LOL

Anyway, heres the site: 

https://sticktothemodel.com/draft/simulator

[ASHKUM BEAR]

12 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I found a new draft simulator. I dunno if its good or realistic, but Ive enjoyed playing around with it.

Of course, without Free Agency it can only mean so much. But I keep drafting 

1 DT Kayden McDonald Ohio State
2 Edge Zion Young Missouri
3 ILB Jacob Rodriguez Texas Tech

I havent done any homework, so I might love or hate these guys in a couple months LOL

Anyway, heres the site: 

https://sticktothemodel.com/draft/simulator

Have to check it out bc draftbuzz seems to take the position you want out of the picture.  Every time all the DEs are gone, but then Averell Reese Edge/LB or RB Love is there at 25. Their algorithm seems off.

 

[Stinger226]

Those would be good choices but after the Combine rankings will be changed. I do think one of the first 3 picks will be a LT. BJ values the OL , clearly it will come down to can Theo do the job at a higher level. No free agents out there worth what they will be paid, so probably a high pick. 

[Stinger226]

8 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Have to check it out bc draftbuzz seems to take the position you want out of the picture.  Every time all the DEs are gone, but then Averell Reese Edge/LB or RB Love is there at 25. Their algorithm seems off.

 

Pro Football Network updates player rankings regularly. That's the one I prefer.

[Stinger226]

40 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I found a new draft simulator. I dunno if its good or realistic, but Ive enjoyed playing around with it.

Of course, without Free Agency it can only mean so much. But I keep drafting 

1 DT Kayden McDonald Ohio State
2 Edge Zion Young Missouri
3 ILB Jacob Rodriguez Texas Tech

I havent done any homework, so I might love or hate these guys in a couple months LOL

Anyway, heres the site: 

https://sticktothemodel.com/draft/simulator

This one has good rankings compared to the other ones I have used.  PFN has free trades in the process. I can't find where you can do on here.

[BearFan PHX]

9 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Have to check it out bc draftbuzz seems to take the position you want out of the picture.  Every time all the DEs are gone, but then Averell Reese Edge/LB or RB Love is there at 25. Their algorithm seems off.

 

DraftBuzz is tough for sure, but they may be more accurate as well.

But try adjusting the random number to something other than the default "2" and youll get different outcomes i think?

[ASHKUM BEAR]

17 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

DraftBuzz is tough for sure, but they may be more accurate as well.

But try adjusting the random number to something other than the default "2" and youll get different outcomes i think?

You do see different, sometimes worse when top 10 prospects are there and you want to take them but want a more realistic feel.  Ive been taking Lomu LT the last couple. 

[BearFan PHX]

I do remember last year I wanted LT Kelvin Banks. All the other ranking sites had him going in the 20s, but Draft Buzz had him going before our 9th pick a lot, almost every time. And they nailed it. In general I tend to think DraftBuzz is the most realistic one, but that also makes it less fun I guess

At any rate, I feel like DraftBuzz is that cold sobering buzzkill (lol) site that keeps us from thinking we're gonna get a top ten player in the 20s lol

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

I do remember last year I wanted LT Kelvin Banks. All the other ranking sites had him going in the 20s, but Draft Buzz had him going before our 9th pick a lot, almost every time. And they nailed it. In general I tend to think DraftBuzz is the most realistic one, but that also makes it less fun I guess

At any rate, I feel like DraftBuzz is that cold sobering buzzkill (lol) site that keeps us from thinking we're gonna get a top ten player in the 20s lol

I just dont see all the de's gone before pick 25 either.  This class is not very deep, so if we dont see a premium position at 25, id be happy to move down to a qb needy team that passed in the top of the draft wanting the 5 yr contract to take one.   Maybe we can get a 2027 2nd rd pick and the 5th pick rd 2 in this draft 

[BearFan PHX]

44 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I just dont see all the de's gone before pick 25 either.  This class is not very deep, so if we dont see a premium position at 25, id be happy to move down to a qb needy team that passed in the top of the draft wanting the 5 yr contract to take one.   Maybe we can get a 2027 2nd rd pick and the 5th pick rd 2 in this draft 

Yeah Ive been thinking - 25 is in that dead zone where you pay more, but get the same level of talent as you do in the early part of the 2nd round.

I wouldnt be surprised at all if we traded out of that pick. Possibly UP for a difference maker, or more likely, down for extra picks. Maybe to a QB hungry team like you suggest. That makes sense.

I think this offseason is going to be very dynamic with cuts, trades, surprises. We've all seen how Poles and Johnson are aggressive in making changes, and the defense surely needs and overhaul. I think it's going to be a fun and bumpy ride.

[Stinger226]

There are generally anywhere from 15 to 20 blue chip players in most drafts experts say. Not sure I would call it a dead zone but you are correct in saying the next 20 to 55 players are closely rated.  Last year had several good players taken after pick 20 .  

There is a draft site that lists who are the most accurate at drafting forecasting every year. I'll try to find it . Not sure where draft buzz was listed but it's a very well done information site for sure.

Anytime you get draft picks like Monangai as a 25th rated RB by almost every site, you realize it's just all a crap shoot and to be taken for a grain of salt. GMs get stuff wrong all the time and they get paid big money to be experts.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

There are generally anywhere from 15 to 20 blue chip players in most drafts experts say. Not sure I would call it a dead zone but you are correct in saying the next 20 to 55 players are closely rated.  Last year had several good players taken after pick 20 .  

There is a draft site that lists who are the most accurate at drafting forecasting every year. I'll try to find it . Not sure where draft buzz was listed but it's a very well done information site for sure.

Anytime you get draft picks like Monangai as a 25th rated RB by almost every site, you realize it's just all a crap shoot and to be taken for a grain of salt. GMs get stuff wrong all the time and they get paid big money to be experts.

yeah, dead zone is the wrong term, youre right. I mean like you said, an area where you pay more for the same level of talent.

Also, when they rate players, they rate them as prospects. So a guy like Monangai, they saw some things, but saw him lacking in others. He was a bigger gamble, so rated lower.

But once they get into the NFL, a lot has to do with the coaching and how they grow. If your scouts think a player is coachable and has hidden skills, then you take that gamble and see. And as a 7th rounder, it wasnt much risk.

So you can find excellent players in the 3rd and 4th round and beyond, but theyre bigger gambles, (at least in most teams eyes) and thats why they fall.

The most fun is when a player is rated lower but a bunch of teams think he's a hidden gem. So hes not really hidden, but his public rank is lower than the teams might have him. I think Banks and Loveland fit that category. The teams had discovered them, but the pundits hadnt.

The draft is an unweildy and complicated bitch! lol