I think we get 5 sacks in this game.

Yeah, Geno has been sacked 9 times in 3 games, so we at least get 3. He has yet to throw an INT, but last year he threw 17, and has 32 over the past two seasons. He has never went 4 games straight without a pick (in the same season). So he is due for at least one. Garrett Wilson gets a 1/3 of the targets.

So the Jets should not score more than 20. If they do, the Bears defense has failed.

We don't know who is starting, but I am assuming Bagent. He has yet to start a game for Ben Johnson, and his last start was as a rookie in 2023. He is 2-0 as a starter at home though. However, he will have to play much better than he did in 2023. Even if he doesn't have as good of a game as Keenum did, I am hoping for a clean game.

I think the Bears win by double digits, 24-13. Bears defense holds Geno to one TD, Bears score 3 and get the W.

24 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

great stuff. Johnson really is a genius.

I just wish he'd know when to kick the ball lol

I was curious about the Jets and watched the short highlight version of their game against Detroit. Geno mostly worked the underneath routes but he seems to like to throw to Garrett Wilson anywhere. Kenyon Sadiq is a legit threat in the redzone.

Breece Hall is about as dangerous as they come at RB but he’ll be watching from the sideline. Along with starting LB Mauigoa, WR Adonai Mitchell, OG Dylan Parham, and TE Mason Taylor. Kenyon Sadiq is fighting a back injury all week so he might be limited in the game if he plays.

On defense they will be better with the return of Minkah Fitzpatrick. Their safeties looked pretty bad against Detroit they will benefit from him keeping things lined up.

Their Oline did not look good at all against Detroit and pressure seemed to come from everywhere, hence all the quick short passes. That combined with a few key pieces missing on their offense is why I expect Dennis Allen to continue to mix it up with pressure and rotational coverages. Also why I think we can get 5 sacks in this game. We’ll see if Geno has good eyes.

One thing that is different and better this year on our defense is the DBs and LBs rallying to the ball. The last two games now we usually have 3 players closing fast keeping gains to a minimum. Thieneman is a big part of that but so is Bush and the CBs. If Geno relies too much on the short game I think we’ll contain it.

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On a side note: 2 years removed from Ben Johnson the Lions offense looked/felt different from what I see us running this season. I’m no analyst but it seemed like they were using less motion than we do and some of the play concepts felt different…or more like the rest of the NFL offenses. They still lit up the scoreboard.

7 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I was curious about the Jets and watched the short highlight version of their game against Detroit. Geno mostly worked the underneath routes but he seems to like to throw to Garrett Wilson anywhere. Kenyon Sadiq is a legit threat in the redzone.

Breece Hall is about as dangerous as they come at RB but he’ll be watching from the sideline. Along with starting LB Mauigoa, WR Adonai Mitchell, OG Dylan Parham, and TE Mason Taylor. Kenyon Sadiq is fighting a back injury all week so he might be limited in the game if he plays.

On defense they will be better with the return of Minkah Fitzpatrick. Their safeties looked pretty bad against Detroit they will benefit from him keeping things lined up.

Their Oline did not look good at all against Detroit and pressure seemed to come from everywhere, hence all the quick short passes. That combined with a few key pieces missing on their offense is why I expect Dennis Allen to continue to mix it up with pressure and rotational coverages. Also why I think we can get 5 sacks in this game. We’ll see if Geno has good eyes.

One thing that is different and better this year on our defense is the DBs and LBs rallying to the ball. The last two games now we usually have 3 players closing fast keeping gains to a minimum. Thieneman is a big part of that but so is Bush and the CBs. If Geno relies too much on the short game I think we’ll contain it.

---

On a side note: 2 years removed from Ben Johnson the Lions offense looked/felt different from what I see us running this season. I’m no analyst but it seemed like they were using less motion than we do and some of the play concepts felt different…or more like the rest of the NFL offenses. They still lit up the scoreboard.

With Breece out, they become much more predictable. Mitchell was their #2 WR, so the only real threats on offense are Wilson and Sadiq.

Using EPA/Play as a guide, the Bears should be favored by 7 pts as the Bears defense has a huge advantage on the Jets offense, and that doesn't take into account the injuries you mentioned:

+0.08 CHI OFF vs -0.08 NYJ DEF = Net 0.00

+0.01 NYJ OFF vs -0.13 CHI DEF = -0.12 CHI ADV

So this should be a game the Bears can control and win handily.

Also, the Bears are in good company right now. They are one of 4 teams with a top 10 offense and top 10 defense in EPA/P. They join KC, JAX, and CIN. Other teams are skewed really heavily towards offense (BUF and SF) or defense (MIN and LVR) which is typically unsustainable.

Extending on this thought, teams that finished with a + Offensive EPA/P and a - Defensive EPA/P where their EPA Difference was over 0.10 has an average record of 12.5 - 4.5 over the last 5 years.

Only one team in the last 5 years finished below .500 when they had a positive EPA/P on Offense and negative on defense, the Colts last year who lost 7 straight (started 8-2).

Right now SF leads with an absurd +0.40, KC at +0.31, JAX at +0.30, and CHI at +0.21. The Bears are the only one to have already started a backup QB in that group.

That’s when stats match the eye test

Braxton Jones just went on IR so he's out at least 4 weeks. The fact they waited so long to do that indicates to me that Ozzy is close to returning and they don't mind losing Braxton for at least 4 weeks. Otherwise why wouldn't you have put him on IR earlier in the week? It's not like his injury status changed between Wed and Sat but they did get to see Ozzy practice for 3 days in that same time.

Marcus Davenport is activated from the practice squad for the game. It'll be interesting to see what he can bring to the pass rush.

In pre-Halloween scary news Nick McCloud was also activated off the practice squad for this game.

7 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Braxton Jones just went on IR so he's out at least 4 weeks. The fact they waited so long to do that indicates to me that Ozzy is close to returning and they don't mind losing Braxton for at least 4 weeks. Otherwise why wouldn't you have put him on IR earlier in the week? It's not like his injury status changed between Wed and Sat but they did get to see Ozzy practice for 3 days in that same time.

Marcus Davenport is activated from the practice squad for the game. It'll be interesting to see what he can bring to the pass rush.

In pre-Halloween scary news Nick McCloud was also activated off the practice squad for this game.

Feels like next week might be week we see Trapillo as a back up but they already ruled him out this week.