I think we get 5 sacks in this game.

Yeah, Geno has been sacked 9 times in 3 games, so we at least get 3. He has yet to throw an INT, but last year he threw 17, and has 32 over the past two seasons. He has never went 4 games straight without a pick (in the same season). So he is due for at least one. Garrett Wilson gets a 1/3 of the targets.

So the Jets should not score more than 20. If they do, the Bears defense has failed.

We don't know who is starting, but I am assuming Bagent. He has yet to start a game for Ben Johnson, and his last start was as a rookie in 2023. He is 2-0 as a starter at home though. However, he will have to play much better than he did in 2023. Even if he doesn't have as good of a game as Keenum did, I am hoping for a clean game.

I think the Bears win by double digits, 24-13. Bears defense holds Geno to one TD, Bears score 3 and get the W.

24 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

great stuff. Johnson really is a genius.

I just wish he'd know when to kick the ball lol

I was curious about the Jets and watched the short highlight version of their game against Detroit. Geno mostly worked the underneath routes but he seems to like to throw to Garrett Wilson anywhere. Kenyon Sadiq is a legit threat in the redzone.

Breece Hall is about as dangerous as they come at RB but he’ll be watching from the sideline. Along with starting LB Mauigoa, WR Adonai Mitchell, OG Dylan Parham, and TE Mason Taylor. Kenyon Sadiq is fighting a back injury all week so he might be limited in the game if he plays.

On defense they will be better with the return of Minkah Fitzpatrick. Their safeties looked pretty bad against Detroit they will benefit from him keeping things lined up.

Their Oline did not look good at all against Detroit and pressure seemed to come from everywhere, hence all the quick short passes. That combined with a few key pieces missing on their offense is why I expect Dennis Allen to continue to mix it up with pressure and rotational coverages. Also why I think we can get 5 sacks in this game. We’ll see if Geno has good eyes.

One thing that is different and better this year on our defense is the DBs and LBs rallying to the ball. The last two games now we usually have 3 players closing fast keeping gains to a minimum. Thieneman is a big part of that but so is Bush and the CBs. If Geno relies too much on the short game I think we’ll contain it.

---

On a side note: 2 years removed from Ben Johnson the Lions offense looked/felt different from what I see us running this season. I’m no analyst but it seemed like they were using less motion than we do and some of the play concepts felt different…or more like the rest of the NFL offenses. They still lit up the scoreboard.

7 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I was curious about the Jets and watched the short highlight version of their game against Detroit. Geno mostly worked the underneath routes but he seems to like to throw to Garrett Wilson anywhere. Kenyon Sadiq is a legit threat in the redzone.

Breece Hall is about as dangerous as they come at RB but he’ll be watching from the sideline. Along with starting LB Mauigoa, WR Adonai Mitchell, OG Dylan Parham, and TE Mason Taylor. Kenyon Sadiq is fighting a back injury all week so he might be limited in the game if he plays.

On defense they will be better with the return of Minkah Fitzpatrick. Their safeties looked pretty bad against Detroit they will benefit from him keeping things lined up.

Their Oline did not look good at all against Detroit and pressure seemed to come from everywhere, hence all the quick short passes. That combined with a few key pieces missing on their offense is why I expect Dennis Allen to continue to mix it up with pressure and rotational coverages. Also why I think we can get 5 sacks in this game. We’ll see if Geno has good eyes.

One thing that is different and better this year on our defense is the DBs and LBs rallying to the ball. The last two games now we usually have 3 players closing fast keeping gains to a minimum. Thieneman is a big part of that but so is Bush and the CBs. If Geno relies too much on the short game I think we’ll contain it.

---

On a side note: 2 years removed from Ben Johnson the Lions offense looked/felt different from what I see us running this season. I’m no analyst but it seemed like they were using less motion than we do and some of the play concepts felt different…or more like the rest of the NFL offenses. They still lit up the scoreboard.

With Breece out, they become much more predictable. Mitchell was their #2 WR, so the only real threats on offense are Wilson and Sadiq.

Using EPA/Play as a guide, the Bears should be favored by 7 pts as the Bears defense has a huge advantage on the Jets offense, and that doesn't take into account the injuries you mentioned:

+0.08 CHI OFF vs -0.08 NYJ DEF = Net 0.00

+0.01 NYJ OFF vs -0.13 CHI DEF = -0.12 CHI ADV

So this should be a game the Bears can control and win handily.

Also, the Bears are in good company right now. They are one of 4 teams with a top 10 offense and top 10 defense in EPA/P. They join KC, JAX, and CIN. Other teams are skewed really heavily towards offense (BUF and SF) or defense (MIN and LVR) which is typically unsustainable.

Extending on this thought, teams that finished with a + Offensive EPA/P and a - Defensive EPA/P where their EPA Difference was over 0.10 has an average record of 12.5 - 4.5 over the last 5 years.

Only one team in the last 5 years finished below .500 when they had a positive EPA/P on Offense and negative on defense, the Colts last year who lost 7 straight (started 8-2).

Right now SF leads with an absurd +0.40, KC at +0.31, JAX at +0.30, and CHI at +0.21. The Bears are the only one to have already started a backup QB in that group.

That’s when stats match the eye test

Braxton Jones just went on IR so he's out at least 4 weeks. The fact they waited so long to do that indicates to me that Ozzy is close to returning and they don't mind losing Braxton for at least 4 weeks. Otherwise why wouldn't you have put him on IR earlier in the week? It's not like his injury status changed between Wed and Sat but they did get to see Ozzy practice for 3 days in that same time.

Marcus Davenport is activated from the practice squad for the game. It'll be interesting to see what he can bring to the pass rush.

In pre-Halloween scary news Nick McCloud was also activated off the practice squad for this game.

7 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Braxton Jones just went on IR so he's out at least 4 weeks. The fact they waited so long to do that indicates to me that Ozzy is close to returning and they don't mind losing Braxton for at least 4 weeks. Otherwise why wouldn't you have put him on IR earlier in the week? It's not like his injury status changed between Wed and Sat but they did get to see Ozzy practice for 3 days in that same time.

Marcus Davenport is activated from the practice squad for the game. It'll be interesting to see what he can bring to the pass rush.

In pre-Halloween scary news Nick McCloud was also activated off the practice squad for this game.

Feels like next week might be week we see Trapillo as a back up but they already ruled him out this week.

13 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Feels like next week might be week we see Trapillo as a back up but they already ruled him out this week.

He was activated off the PUP on August 16th, so next week is close to 2 months.

Bears got robbed of another TD. 2 TD runs overturned.

1 minute ago, adam said:

Bears got robbed of another TD. 2 TD runs overturned.

They must have forgot that the plain to break is the front white line. I though both were close enough to count.

BJ gets too cute, again, inside the five. This is three games in a row of him costing us points with his ego. Time to dial it in...

1 minute ago, Mongo3451 said:

BJ gets too cute, again, inside the five. This is three games in a row of him costing us points with his ego. Time to dial it in...

No way you can overturn that.

1 minute ago, adam said:

No way you can overturn that.

100% - I agree with BJ's calls, as you said, both were TDs that should not have been overturned.

Bears finally score, quarter over, the Jets have 3 plays on offense lol. Should be 14-0, but refs.

Bagent looks pretty good, not as quick as Keenum, but a couple of longer passes to Odunze and Burden. Burden has 49 receiving yards in the 1st quarter.

What? No scoring review? LOL

Damn Refs.

10 minutes ago, adam said:

No way you can overturn that.

They did though. Shouldn't have gotten to that.

New thought, I love the TOP. Hey them off the field and grind them down. They won't be able to rehydrate fast enough...

2 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

They did though. Shouldn't have gotten to that.

New thought, I love the TOP. Hey them off the field and grind them down. They won't be able to rehydrate fast enough...

Oh I agree, let's get it done before 4th Down.

Booker with a huge sack on 3rd Down, or should I have said Book-air!

Damn, Bagent with another INT, this one counts. Terrible throw, behind Loveland.

I can't imagine he will have a long leash. The Bears are dominating, can't make game changing mistakes like that.

Bears 7-3 after Jets FG. Totally on Bagent. Can't gift the other team easy points.

This is his chance to see how he responds to adversity. Need a TD drive to get that taste out of your mouth.

6 minutes ago, adam said:

Bears 7-3 after Jets FG. Totally on Bagent. Can't gift the other team easy points.

This is his chance to see how he responds to adversity. Need a TD drive to get that taste out of your mouth.

BJ definately put a collar on Bagent. Bears running the ball which is what needs to be done to soften the defensive front up and help the passing game 2nd half.

1 minute ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

BJ definately put a collar on Bagent. Bears running the ball which is what needs to be done to soften the defensive front up and help the passing game 2nd half.

Yeah, 10-3 lead, should be more. Lost 7 on the BS overturned TD and the Bagent INT gave the Jets 3 pts. Should be 17-0.

Bagent clearly does not look as good as Keenum.