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From ESPN Insider:

 

Mel Kiper's 2009 NFL mock draftComment Email Print By Mel Kiper Jr.

ESPN.com

Archive

 

Mel Kiper's first round

Pick Team Player Position College

1 Detroit Matthew Stafford QB Georgia

2 St. Louis Andre Smith OT Alabama

3 Kansas City Mark Sanchez QB USC

4 Seattle Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech

5 Cleveland Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest

6 Cincinnati Jason Smith OT Baylor

7 Oakland Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri

8 Jacksonville Eugene Monroe OT Virginia

9 Green Bay Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio St.

10 San Francisco Aaron Maybin DE/OLB Penn St.

11 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St.

12 Denver B.J. Raji DT Boston College

13 Washington Brian Orakpo DE Texas

14 New Orleans Vontae Davis CB Illinois

15 Houston Everette Brown DE Florida St.

16 San Diego Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia

17 New York Jets Percy Harvin WR Florida

18 Chicago Tyson Jackson DE LSU

19 Tampa Bay Josh Freeman QB Kansas St.

20 Detroit (from Dallas) Rey Maualuga LB USC

21 Philadelphia Chris "Beanie" Wells RB Ohio St.

22 Minnesota Hakeem Nicks WR North Carolina

23 New England Brian Cushing LB USC

24 Atlanta Larry English DE/OLB No. Illinois

25 Miami Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland

26 Baltimore D.J. Moore CB Vanderbilt

27 Indianapolis Peria Jerry DT Mississippi

28 Philadelphia (from Carolina) Michael Oher OT Mississippi

29 New York Giants James Laurinaitis LB Ohio St.

30 Tennessee Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech

31 Arizona LeSean McCoy RB Pittsburgh

32 Pittsburgh Alex Mack C California

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Kiper always makes dumbass "surprise" picks in his early mocks. In fact, most of the well known "draft experts" do so in order to gain more pub. Tyson Jackson makes about zero sense for us and we probably wouldn't even draft him in the 2nd or 3rd if we had the chance.

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I dont like the Sanchez pick for KC either. I think they should sit on Thigpen and go with a guy later. Maybe even go after Crabtree and see if they can get a nice set of WRs with Bowe for the first time I can recall in that teams history. As far as the Bears go. Who knows. Its hard to think what JA assumes our needs are as compared to the fans.

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From ESPN Insider:

 

Mel Kiper's 2009 NFL mock draftComment Email Print By Mel Kiper Jr.

 

Mel Kiper's first round

Pick Team Player Position College

18 Chicago Tyson Jackson DE LSU

 

If that happens, I will murder and gut Mel Kiper Jr, and then wear his hair as a helmet like a follically challenged Leatherface.

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I agree w/ others that this pick doesn't make sense, as Jackson would look more like a DT in our system, rather than a DE.

 

W/ that said, I do want to throw out there that I think Kiper is better than most think. I have ripped Kiper in the past, but since ESPN brought in his eventual replacement in McShay, I think Kiper has picked up his game. IMHO, Kiper was one of the best, and original, draft day evaluators in the media. He was the draft guru, and earned that title. But over the years, he got lazy. But recently, w/ his tenure threatened, I think he has regained guru status.

 

Now, I do not think we will draft Jackson, but would add (a) Jackson may well be drafted higher than many think and (B) closer to the draft, I bet you he does not have us taking Jackson. His early mocks have more to do w/ value than w/ specific team systems and needs.

 

From ESPN Insider:

 

Mel Kiper's 2009 NFL mock draftComment Email Print By Mel Kiper Jr.

ESPN.com

Archive

 

Mel Kiper's first round

Pick Team Player Position College

1 Detroit Matthew Stafford QB Georgia

2 St. Louis Andre Smith OT Alabama

3 Kansas City Mark Sanchez QB USC

4 Seattle Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech

5 Cleveland Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest

6 Cincinnati Jason Smith OT Baylor

7 Oakland Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri

8 Jacksonville Eugene Monroe OT Virginia

9 Green Bay Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio St.

10 San Francisco Aaron Maybin DE/OLB Penn St.

11 Buffalo Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma St.

12 Denver B.J. Raji DT Boston College

13 Washington Brian Orakpo DE Texas

14 New Orleans Vontae Davis CB Illinois

15 Houston Everette Brown DE Florida St.

16 San Diego Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia

17 New York Jets Percy Harvin WR Florida

18 Chicago Tyson Jackson DE LSU

19 Tampa Bay Josh Freeman QB Kansas St.

20 Detroit (from Dallas) Rey Maualuga LB USC

21 Philadelphia Chris "Beanie" Wells RB Ohio St.

22 Minnesota Hakeem Nicks WR North Carolina

23 New England Brian Cushing LB USC

24 Atlanta Larry English DE/OLB No. Illinois

25 Miami Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland

26 Baltimore D.J. Moore CB Vanderbilt

27 Indianapolis Peria Jerry DT Mississippi

28 Philadelphia (from Carolina) Michael Oher OT Mississippi

29 New York Giants James Laurinaitis LB Ohio St.

30 Tennessee Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech

31 Arizona LeSean McCoy RB Pittsburgh

32 Pittsburgh Alex Mack C California

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while we have bigger draft needs (S, pass rushing DE, WR) I wouldn't be upset if the bears take Brian Cushing. Our Sam LB play was awful last year with roach and hunter. His best spot supposedly is lined up over the TE, and I also think he could be effective in getting to the QB given the right blitz schemes, which frankly was far and away the defenses biggest weakness last year. That said, when it comes down to it, id rather take a guy like Maclin if there or DE that can get to the QB. Given the fact that safety is horrendously weak I don't see that being a position we fill in the first round. CB is a possibility, especially if they move Peanut to Free. I don't see them drafting a OT, so i think they will wait to get a OG in later rounds.

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What I wouldn't mind doing is trading our 1st rounder (pick 18) and our 4th rounder (pick 115) to Miami for their 2 second rounders (pick 44, pick 56) and their 3rd rounder (pick 87).

 

That's 964-955 on the draft value chart, in their favor.

 

 

I wouldn't mind that either as that would give us 3 2nd's and because I don't see a "stud" that we MUST have at 18. There are several players that we would love to get but none that just make me wet myself over lol.

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I wouldn't mind that either as that would give us 3 2nd's and because I don't see a "stud" that we MUST have at 18. There are several players that we would love to get but none that just make me wet myself over lol.

 

 

Heck I don't even care to much about the QB that is projected to go #1 to Detroit for crying out loud. If that tells you anything.

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Ya trading down so you have a more diluted talent pool to pick from makes perfect sense.

Diluted pool? What guy who has a chance to be there at 18 do you look at and say "He will be a beast for us"?

 

Sanchez, Orakpo, Brown, A. Smith, J. Smith, Jenkins, Monroe, and Raji will all be long gone before 18.

 

Plus, this is a deep draft class so the talent in the 2nd round will be pretty good. To have 3 seconds and 3 thirds would be outstanding. In the 2nd, we could get a good RG (Urbik), a good RT (Tupou), and a possession WR who is the most ready WR IMO coming out this year (Robiskie).

 

Not to mention JA picks better in the 2nd-4th round then he does in the 1st.

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Diluted pool? What guy who has a chance to be there at 18 do you look at and say "He will be a beast for us"?

 

Sanchez, Orakpo, Brown, A. Smith, J. Smith, Jenkins, Monroe, and Raji will all be long gone before 18.

 

Plus, this is a deep draft class so the talent in the 2nd round will be pretty good. To have 3 seconds and 3 thirds would be outstanding. In the 2nd, we could get a good RG (Urbik), a good RT (Tupou), and a possession WR who is the most ready WR IMO coming out this year (Robiskie).

 

Not to mention JA picks better in the 2nd-4th round then he does in the 1st.

 

 

That is exactly what I was trying to say. Thank you for posting that. I agree that the talent pool is deep but no clear winner that I think will be great. Most players coming in this year will need coaching to possibly become great players. I believe that the talent is especially deep at WR and Oline. One WR that I wouldn't mind getting is Percy Harvey from Florida projected to go in the 1st to 2nd round. Another guy that I kinda like is Marko Mitchell from Nevada. He is projected to run a 4.45 and to go in the 5th round. There is also another guy that is 6'6" but his 40 is horribly slow at 4.55(Ramses Barden)

 

Here is his write up. My question is why did he only play 8 games last year.

http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2009WR.php

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Diluted pool? What guy who has a chance to be there at 18 do you look at and say "He will be a beast for us"?

 

Sanchez, Orakpo, Brown, A. Smith, J. Smith, Jenkins, Monroe, and Raji will all be long gone before 18.

 

Plus, this is a deep draft class so the talent in the 2nd round will be pretty good. To have 3 seconds and 3 thirds would be outstanding. In the 2nd, we could get a good RG (Urbik), a good RT (Tupou), and a possession WR who is the most ready WR IMO coming out this year (Robiskie).

 

Not to mention JA picks better in the 2nd-4th round then he does in the 1st.

 

 

 

Oh I'm sorry. Rex Grossman and Michael Haynes worked out well, as did Daniel Manning. Cade McClown anyone? When people are picked in the draft, they are no longer available to be picked by other teams, therefore the talent level with which to pick from has less talent to choose from. We had this discussion a few years back and the statistical percentages of busts to nonbusts later in the draft doesn't warrant trading down. Just cuz you have more picks, doesn't change the statistical chances each time you pick of gettting an impact player.

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Oh I'm sorry. Rex Grossman and Michael Haynes worked out well, as did Daniel Manning. Cade McClown anyone? When people are picked in the draft, they are no longer available to be picked by other teams, therefore the talent level with which to pick from has less talent to choose from. We had this discussion a few years back and the statistical percentages of busts to nonbusts later in the draft doesn't warrant trading down. Just cuz you have more picks, doesn't change the statistical chances each time you pick of gettting an impact player.

I didn't say trade down in the 1st (McNown, Haynes, Grossman), I said trade down into the 2nd round.

 

You're contradicting yourself. You're saying that the further we pick down, the less talent there is. Not true. Does that mean if San Diego would have traded down instead of taking Ryan Leaf, that would have been a bad choice because there was talent there that wasn't going to be there further down? No. I could definitley make a case that this year's 2nd round will be better then the 1st, but we'll obviously disagree.

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I didn't say trade down in the 1st (McNown, Haynes, Grossman), I said trade down into the 2nd round.

 

You're contradicting yourself. You're saying that the further we pick down, the less talent there is. Not true. Does that mean if San Diego would have traded down instead of taking Ryan Leaf, that would have been a bad choice because there was talent there that wasn't going to be there further down? No. I could definitley make a case that this year's 2nd round will be better then the 1st, but we'll obviously disagree.

 

 

How am I contradicting myself? That statement makes ZERO sense. That percentages, I know it's difficult to understand, that you would be getting an impact are higher in the upper portion of the draft then in the later parts because there are more impact type players available. How can players in the 2nd round be better then the ones in the first? The players in the 2nd round werent graded high enough by scouts to be picked in the 1st round. So you would be correct that I would disagree that the 2nd round players wouldn't be better then the 1st round players. That is just goofy.

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How am I contradicting myself? That statement makes ZERO sense. That percentages, I know it's difficult to understand, that you would be getting an impact are higher in the upper portion of the draft then in the later parts because there are more impact type players available. How can players in the 2nd round be better then the ones in the first? The players in the 2nd round werent graded high enough by scouts to be picked in the 1st round. So you would be correct that I would disagree that the 2nd round players wouldn't be better then the 1st round players. That is just goofy.

You said that by trading down there is less talent. Not true. Then how do guys like Houshmanzadeh, Jared Allen, Brady, etc. all fall? Because guys were better? Yeah, probably at the time, but there are gems in the 2nd round every year.

 

Hester was the 57th overall pick (I think) in 2006, and yet if teams could do the draft over, he'd easily be a top 15 pick. Forte was a 2nd rounder yet, like Hester, he'd be a top 15 pick if teams could re-do the 2007 draft. Nnamdi Asomugha was the 31st overall pick in the 2003 or 2004 draft. Now, he's easily the best cover CB in football...so all 30 guys picked ahead of him were/are better and have more talent? Not really.

 

All I'm saying is that, in Angelo's case, to pick up 2 more second rounders and another third wouldn't necessarily be bad because he 1. picks better in later rounds and 2. there isn't a guy who looks like he'll be there at 18 that blows me away.

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Dirty Sanchez will be drafted after the 15th pick in the first.

 

I see him as this drafts Aaron Rogers but Rogers has more talent.

 

Right now I see the Lions drafting him with the #1 draft pick they got for Williams or Miami trading up to draft him..

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BEWARE... LONG POST OF INFO

 

here is some information i posted about trading down on the shrine board in 2004. i'm sure there may be some differences to add over the last 4 years, or maybe not. anyway here is is:

 

====================================================

wanna trade down????? READ THIS!!"

 

 

do we REALLLLLY want to trade down? after looking at the statistics below i know i sure don't and in fact would seriously consider trading up EVERY year into the top 10 if you wan't the odds on your side with selecting a quality player.

 

its very curious also that the organizations missing in the top ten picks are consistantly missing like the bengles, the lions and a couple of other teams during this period. what this says to me is the cheap organizations not wanting to spend money on scouts, or people who REALLY know what is going on in the football world tend to waste these high picks in an alarming number.

 

below are some interesting facts:

 

1) over a 20 year period if you selected a player in the top 5 slots you had a 49% chance to get a quality player who had at LEAST 2 awards (pro bowl or all-pro).

 

if you picked a player in slots 6-10 you had a 43% chance.

 

2) over a 20 year period of time if you drafted a player in the 1-10 slots you had more than TWICE the chance to obtain an impact player than a team picking in slots 11-20.

 

92 players picked in the first round slots 1-10 vs. 45 players picked in the first round slots 11-20 that had at LEAST 2 awards (pro-bowl or all-pro).

 

3) 70% of the time players selected in slots 1-10 will be BETTER players than players selected in slots 11-20.

20% of the time there were even amounts in both slots.

in only 10% of the time were there greater amounts of pro bowl/all-pro players selected.

 

in other words... 14 times out of 20 times there were MORE quality players selected 1-10 than in slots 11-20. **only TWO times in 20 years were there more pro bowl/all-pro players picked in slots 11-20. *FOUR times they were even..

 

the data below reads as follows:

YEAR - NUMBER OF PLAYERS FROM PICKS 1-10 - NUMBER OF PLAYERS FROM PICKS 11-20

 

1979 - 6 - 1

1980 - 5 - 3

1981 - 7 - 2

1982 - 5 - 2

1983 - 8 - 2

1984 - 3 - 3 *

1985 - 7 - 2

1986 - 4 - 1

1987 - 5 - 1

1988 - 6 - 7 **

1989 - 4 - 1

1990 - 4 - 3

1991 - 3 - 0

1992 - 3 - 3 *

1993 - 4 - 0

1994 - 4 - 4 *

1995 - 2 - 4 **

1996 - 5 - 2

1997 - 5 - 2

1998 - 2 - 2 *

 

i used data for 20 years from 1979 to 1998 inclusive. i did not go further than 98 as the time frame would be not be long enough to determine any significant figures. i used data up until 2003. i also am using figures from picks 1-20 in the first round only to determine the value of drafting in the top 10 as compared to picking in the next 10 slots.

 

i went through an incredible amount of data to get these stats. all data was figured from players who had at LEAST two forms of award. EXAMPLE.. a player that had 1 pro bowl and 1 all-pro made the list, a player that was selected for 2 pro-bowls made the list, a player who was selected as all-pro (or all-nfl) twice made the list, and multiples of the above.

 

im no math expert by any means and if anyone see's any errors post them and/or i will post the players along with data. any who want can do the math on their own as it is possible i missed someone or added one by mistake. if you find any that dont jive let me know.

===========

 

listed below are the players that i used for the stats above from 1979 - 1998. i used the data i could find up until the 2003 pro bowl (i couldnt find any all-pro or all-nfl stats for 2003).

 

some of the players i listed as lots, ? or + rather than spending the time looking up every stat for them so take that into consideration.

 

how long did this take to compile this data you ask? days!

 

ap = ALL-PRO

pb = PRO BOWL

>>

 

1979 - 6 - 1 - top 5 = 3

>> 1 Tom Cousineau Bills LB Ohio State - 2 ap >>

2 Mike Bell Chiefs DE Colorado State -

3 Jack Thompson Bengals QB Washington State -

>> 4 Dan Hampton Bears DT Arkansas - 4 pb - +ap

>> 5 Jerry Butler Bills WR Clemson - 1 pb - 1 ap

6 Barry Krauss Colts LB Alabama -

>> 7 Phil Simms Giants QB Morehead State - 2 pb - 1 ap

>> 8 Ottis Anderson Cardinals RB Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 2 ap

9 Al Harris Bears DE Arizona State -

>> 10 Keith Dorney Lions T Penn State - 1 pb - 2 ap

--------------------------------------------------

11 Russell Erxleben Saints K Texas -

12 Charles Alexander Bengals RB LSU -

>> 13 Kellen Winslow Chargers TE Missouri - 5 pb - +ap

14 Marty Lyons Jets DE Alabama -

15 Eddie Lee Ivery Packers RB Georgia Tech -

16 Ted Brown Vikings RB North Carolina State -

17 Don Smith Falcons DE Miami (FL) - 1 ap

18 Manu Tuiasosopo Seahawks DT UCLA -

19 George Andrews Rams LB Nebraska -

20 Willis Adams Browns WR Houston -

 

=======================================

1980 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 2

>> 1 Billy Sims Lions RB Oklahoma - 2 pb - 2 ap

2 Lam Jones Jets WR Texas

>> 3 Anthony Munoz Bengals T USC - 10 pb - 11 ap

4 Bruce Clark Packers DT Penn State - 1 pb

5 Curtis Dickey Colts RB Texas A&M -

6 Curtis Greer Cardinals DE Michigan - 1 ap

>> 7 Junior Miller Falcons TE Nebraska - 2 pb -

>> 8 Mark Haynes Giants DB Colorado - 3pb - 5 ap

9 Doug Martin Vikings DT Washington

>> 10 Jacob Green Seahawks DE Texas A&M- 2ap - 4 ap

--------------------------------------------

11 Brad Budde Chiefs G USC -

12 Stan Brock Saints T Colorado -

13 Earl Cooper 49ers RB Rice -

14 Roland James Patriots DB Tennessee - 1 ap

15 Marc Wilson Raiders QB Brigham Young -

>> 16 Jim Ritcher Bills C North Carolina State - 2 pb - 2 ap

17 Johnnie Johnson Rams DB Texas - 1 ap

>> 18 Art Monk Redskins WR Syracuse - 3 pb - 3 ap

>> 19 Otis Wilson Bears LB Louisville - 1 pb - 2 ap

20 Jim Stuckey 49ers DT Clemson -

=====================================================

 

1981 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 5

>> 1 George Rogers Saints RB South Carolina - 2 pb - 2 ap

>> 2 Lawrence Taylor Giants LB North Carolina - lots

>> 3 Freeman McNeil Jets RB UCLA - 3 pb - 3 ap

>> 4 Kenny Easley Seahawks DB UCLA - 5 pb - 5 ap

>> 5 E.J. Junior Cardinals LB Alabama - 2 pb - 2 ap

6 Rich Campbell Packers QB California

>> 7 Hugh Green Buccaneers LB Pittsburgh - 2 pb - 2 ap

>> 8 Ronnie Lott 49ers DB USC - lots - hof

9 Mel Owens Rams LB Michigan

10 David Verser Bengals WR Kansas -

-----------------------------------------------------

11 Keith Van Horne Bears T USC -

12 Randy McMillan Colts RB Pittsburgh

13 David Overstreet Dolphins RB Oklahoma -

14 Willie Scott Chiefs TE South Carolina -

>> 15 Dennis Smith Broncos DB USC - 6 pb - lots

16 Mark Nichols Lions WR San Jose State -

17 Keith Gary Steelers DE Oklahoma -

18 Donnell Thompson Colts DT North Carolina -

>> 19 Brian Holloway Patriots T Stanford - 3 pb - 3 ap

20 Mark May Redskins T Pittsburgh - 1 ap

============================================

1982 - 5 - 2 - top 5 = 2

1 Kenneth Sims Patriots DT Texas -

2 Johnie Cooks Colts LB Mississippi State -

>> 3 Chip Banks Browns LB USC - 4 pb - 4 ap

4 Art Schlichter Colts QB Ohio State -

>> 5 Jim McMahon Bears QB Brigham Young - 1 pb - 1 ap

6 Jeff Bryant Seahawks DE Clemson 1 ap

7 Darrin Nelson Vikings RB Stanford -

>> 8 Mike Munchak Oilers G Penn State - 9 pb - lots

>> 9 Gerald Riggs Falcons RB Arizona State - 3 pb - 2 ap

>> 10 Marcus Allen Raiders RB USC - lots

--------------------------------------------

11 Anthony Hancock Chiefs WR Tennessee -

12 Walter Abercrombie Steelers RB Baylor -

13 Lindsay Scott Saints WR Georgia -

14 Barry Redden Rams RB Richmond -

15 Jimmy Williams Lions LB Nebraska -

>> 16 Luis Sharpe Cardinals T UCLA - 3 pb - 4 ap

17 Sean Farrell Buccaneers G Penn State - 1 ap

18 Butch Woolfork Giants RB Michigan -

19 Perry Tuttle Bills WR Clemson -

>> 20 Mike Quick Eagles WR North Carolina State - 5 pb - 4 ap

====================================

1983 - 8 - 2 - top 5 = 5

>> 1 John Elway Colts QB Stanford - Lots

>> 2 Eric Dickerson Rams RB SMU - lots

>> 3 Curt Warner Seahawks RB Penn State - 3 pb - 4 ap

>> 4 Chris Hinton Broncos T Northwestern - lots

>> 5 Billy Ray Smith Chargers LB Arkansas - 3 ap

>> 6 Jimbo Covert Bears T Pittsburgh - lots

7 Todd Blackledge Chiefs QB Penn State -

8 Michael Haddix Eagles RB Mississippi State -

>> 9 Bruce Matthews Oilers G USC - lots

>> 10 Terry Kinard Giants DB Clemson - 1 pb - 1 ap

--------------------------------------------

11 Tim Lewis Packers DB Pittsburgh - 1 ap

12 Tony Hunter Bills TE Notre Dame -

13 James Jones Lions RB Florida -

>> 14 Jim Kelly Bills QB Miami (FL) lots

15 Tony Eason Patriots QB Illinois

16 Mike Pitts Falcons DE Alabama -

17 Leonard Smith Cardinals DB McNeese State 1 ap

18 Willie Gualt Bears WR Tennessee -

>> 19 Joey Browner Vikings DB USC - 6 pb - 5 ap

20 Gary Anderson Chargers RB Arkansas - 1 pb

================================

1984 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 3

>> 1 Irving Fryar Patriots WR Nebraska - 5 pb - 1 ap

2 Dean Steinkuhler Oilers T Nebraska -

>> 3 Carl Banks Giants LB Michigan State - 1 pb - 1 ap

4 Kenny Jackson Eagles WR Penn State -

>> 5 Bill Maas Chiefs DT Pittsburgh - 2 ap

6 Mossy Cade Chargers DB Texas

7 Ricky Hunley Bengals LB Arizona -

8 Leonard Coleman Colts DB Vanderbilt -

9 Rick Bryan Falcons DT Oklahoma - 1 ap

10 Russell Carter Jets DB SMU -

--------------------------------------

>> 11 Wilber Marshall Bears LB Florida - 3 pb - 2 ap

12 Alphonso Carreker Packers DE Florida State -

>> 13 Keith Millard Vikings DE Washington State - 2 pb - 4 ap

14 Jackie Shipp Dolphins LB Oklahoma

15 Ron Faurot Jets DE Arkansas

16 Pete Koch Bengals DE Maryland

17 Clyde Duncan Cardinals WR Tennessee -

18 Don Rogers Browns DB UCLA -

>> 19 Ron Solt Colts G Maryland - 1 pb - 1 ap

20 David Lewis Lions TE California -

==========================================

1985 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 5

>> 1 Bruce Smith Bills DE Virginia Tech

>> 2 Bill Fralic Falcons T Pittsburgh - 4 pb - 3 ap

>> 3 Ray Childress Oilers DE Texas A&M - 5 pb - 6 ap

>> 4 Chris Doleman Vikings DE Pittsburgh - 8 pb - 4 ap

>> 5 Duane Bickett Colts LB USC - 1 pb - 2 ap

>> 6 Lomas Brown Lions T Florida - 7 pb - 6 ap

7 Ken Ruettgers Packers T USC -

8 Ron Holmes Buccaneers DE Washington

9 Kevin Allen Eagles T Indiana -

>> 10 Al Toon Jets WR Wisconsin - 3 pb - 3 ap

--------------------------------------------

11 Richard Johnson Oilers DB Wisconsin

>> 12 Jim Lachey Chargers T Ohio State - 3 pb - 5 ap

13 Eddie Brown Bengals WR Miami (FL) - 1 ap

14 Derrick Burroughs Bills DB Memphis State -

15 Ethan Horton Chiefs RB North Carolina -

>> 16 Jerry Rice 49ers WR Mississippi Valley State

17 Kevin Brooks Cowboys DE Michigan

18 Freddie Joe Nunn Cardinals DE Mississippi

19 George Adams Giants RB Kentucky

20 Darryl Sims Steelers DE Wisconsin -

=======================================

1986 - 4 - 1 - top 5 = 2

>> 1 Bo Jackson Buccaneers RB Auburn - 1 pb - 2 ap

2 Tony Casillas Falcons DT Oklahoma - 1 ap

>> 3 Jim Everett Oilers QB Purdue - 1 pb - 2 ap

4 Jon Hand Colts DE Alabama

5 Anthony Bell Cardinals LB Michigan State -

6 Jim Dombrowski Saints T Virginia -

7 Brian Jozwiak Chiefs T West Virginia

>> 8 Leslie O'Neal Chargers DE Oklahoma State - 6 pb - ?ap

9 John Rienstra Steelers G Temple -

>> 10 Keith Byars Eagles RB Ohio State - 1 pb - 1 ap

------------------------------------

11 Joe Kelly Bengals LB Washington

12 Chuck Long Lions QB Iowa

13 James Fitzpatrick Chargers T USC -

14 Gerald Robinson Vikings DE Auburn

15 John L. Williams Seahawks RB Florida

16 Ronnie Harmon Bills RB Iowa - 1 pb -

17 Tim Green Falcons LB Syracuse

18 Mike Sherrard Cowboys WR UCLA

19 Eric Dorsey Giants DE Notre Dame

>> 20 Will Wolford Bills T Vanderbilt - 3 pb - 2 ap

=================================

1987 - 5 - 1 - top 5 = 2

>> 1 Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers QB Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 1 ap

>> 2 Cornelius Bennett Colts LB Alabama - 5 pb - ?ap

3 Alonzo Highsmith Oilers RB Miami (FL)

4 Brent Fullwood Packers RB Auburn - 1 pb -

5 Mike Junkin Browns LB Duke

6 Kelly Stouffer Cardinals QB Colorado State

7 Reggie Rogers Lions DE Washington

>> 8 Shane Conlan Bills LB Penn State - 3 pb - 3 ap

>> 9 Jerome Brown Eagles DT Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 3 ap

>> 10 Rod Woodson Steelers DB Purdue lots

------------------------------------------------------

11 Shawn Knight Saints DT Brigham Young

12 Danny Noonan Cowboys DT Nebraska

13 Chris Miller Falcons QB Oregon - 1 pb -

14 D.J. Dozier Vikings RB Penn State

15 John Clay Raiders T Missouri -

16 John Bosa Dolphins DE Boston College

17 Jason Buck Bengals DE Brigham Young

18 Tony Woods Seahawks LB Pittsburgh

19 Paul Palmer Chiefs RB Temple

>> 20 Haywood Jeffires Oilers WR North Carolina State - 3 pb - 2 ap

=========================================

1988 - 6 - 7 - top 5 = 3

1 Aundray Bruce Falcons LB Auburn -

>> 2 Neil Smith Chiefs DE Nebraska - 6 pb - 6 ap

>> 3 Bennie Blades Lions DB Miami (FL) - 1 pb - 3 ap

>> 4 Paul Gruber Buccaneers T Wisconsin - 3 ap

5 Rickey Dixon Bengals DB Oklahoma

>> 6 Tim Brown Raiders WR Notre Dame - 7 + - ap +

>> 7 Sterling Sharpe Packers WR South Carolina - 5 pb - 5 ap

8 Dave Cadigan Jets T USC -

>> 9 Terry McDaniel Raiders DB Tennessee - 5 pb - 2 ap

10 Eric Moore Giants T Indiana

-------------------------------------

>> 11 Michael Irvin Cowboys WR Miami (FL) - + pb - + ap

>> 12 Ken Harvey Cardinals LB California - + pb - + ap

>> 13 Keith Jackson Eagles TE Oklahoma - 5 pb - 4 ap

>> 14 Gaston Green Rams RB UCLA - 1 pb - 1 ap

>> 15 Anthony Miller Chargers WR Tennessee - 5 pb - 3 ap

16 Eric Kumerow Dolphins DE Ohio State

>> 17 John Stephens Patriots RB NW Louisiana - 1 pb - 1 ap

18 Aaron Jones Steelers DE Eastern Kentucky -

>> 19 Randall McDaniel Vikings G Arizona State - 10 pb - + ap

20 Aaron Cox Rams WR Arizona State -

=================================================

1989 - 4 -1 - top 5 = 4

>> 1 Troy Aikman Cowboys QB UCLA - + pb - + ap

2 Tony Mandarich Packers T Michigan State

>> 3 Barry Sanders Lions RB Oklahoma State - +pb - + ap

>> 4 Derrick Thomas Chiefs LB Alabama - 9 pb - + ap

>> 5 Deion Snaders Falcons DB Florida State + pb - + ap

6 Broderick Thomas Buccaneers LB Nebraska

7 Tim Worley Steelers RB Georgia

8 Burt Grossman Chargers DE Pittsburgh -

9 Sammie Smith Dolphins RB Florida State -

10 Eric Hill Cardinals LB LSU -

---------------------------------------------

11 Donnell Woolford Bears DB Clemson - 1 pb -

12 Trace Armstrong Bears DE Florida 1 pb

13 Eric Metcalf Browns RB Texas -

14 Jeff Lageman Jets LB Virginia - 1 ap

15 Andy Heck Seahawks T Notre Dame - 1 ap

16 Hart Lee Dykes Patriots WR Oklahoma State -

17 Joe Wolf Cardinals G Boston College -

18 Brian Williams Giants C Minnesota -

19 Wayne Martin Saints DE Arkansas - 1 pb -

>> 20 Steve Atwater Broncos DB Arkansas - 8 pb - + ap

=========================================

1990 - 4 - 3 - top 5 = 2

1 Jeff George Colts QB Illinois

2 Blair Thomas Jets RB Penn State -

>> 3 Cortez Kennedy Seahawks DT Miami (FL) - 7 pb - 6 ap

4 Keith McCants Buccaneers LB Alabama -

>> 5 Junior Seau Chargers LB USC - + pb - + ap

>> 6 Mark Carrier Bears DB USC - 3 pb - 3 ap

7 Andre Ware Lions QB Houston

8 Chris Singleton Patriots LB Arizona -

>> 9 Richmond Webb Dolphins T Texas A&M - 7 pb - 3 ap

10 Ray Agnew Patriots DE North Carolina State -

--------------------------------------------

11 Anthony Smith Raiders DE Arizona -

12 James Francis Bengals LB Baylor -

13 Percy Snow Chiefs LB Michigan State -

>> 14 Renaldo Turnbull Saints DE West Virginia - 1 pb - 1 ap

>> 15 Lamar Lathon Oilers LB Houston - 1 pb - 1 ap

16 James Williams Bills DB Fresno State -

>> 17 Emmitt Smith Cowboys RB Florida lots

18 Tony Bennett Packers LB Mississippi -

19 Darrell Thompson Packers RB Minnesota -

20 Steve Broussard Falcons RB Washington State -

==============================================

1991 - 3 - 0 - top 5 = 1

1 Russell Maryland Cowboys DT Miami (FL) - 1 pb -

>> 2 Eric Turner Browns DB UCLA - 2 pb - 1 ap

3 Bruce Pickens Falcons DB Nebraska -

4 Mike Croel Broncos LB Nebraska -

5 Todd Lyght Rams DB Notre Dame - 1 pb

>> 6 Eric Swann Cardinals DE None - 2 pb - 2 ap

7 Charles McRae Buccaneers T Tennessee -

8 Antone Davis Eagles T Tennessee -

9 Stanley Richard Chargers DB Texas -

>> 10 Herman Moore Lions WR Virginia - 4 pb - 3 ap

---------------------------------------

11 Pat Harlow Patriots T USC -

12 Alvin Harper Cowboys WR Tennessee -

13 Mike Pritchard Falcons WR Colorado -

14 Leonard Russell Patriots RB Arizona State -

15 Huey Richardson Steelers LB Florida -

16 Dan McGwire Seahawks QB San Diego State -

17 Bobby Wilson Redskins DT Michigan State -

18 Alfred Williams Bengals LB Colorado -

19 Vinnie Clark Packers DB Ohio State -

20 Kelvin Pritchett Cowboys DT Mississippi -

================================================

1992 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 1

1 Steve Emtman Colts DT Washington -

2 Quentin Coryatt Colts LB Texas A&M -

>> 3 Sean Gilbert Rams DT Pittsburgh - 1 pb - 1 ap

4 Desmond Howard Redskins WR Michigan -

5 Terrell Buckley Packers DB Florida State - 1 ap

6 David Klingler Bengals QB Houston -

>> 7 Troy Vincent Dolphins DB Wisconsin - 3 pb - ?ap

>> 8 Bob Whitfield Falcons T Stanford - 1 pb - 1 ap

9 Tommy Vardell Browns RB Stanford -

10 Ray Roberts Seahawks T Virginia

------------------------------------------

11 Leon Searcy Steelers T Miami (FL) - 1 pb

>> 12 Marco Coleman Dolphins DE Georgia Tech - 2 pb

13 Eugene Chung Patriots T Virginia Tech -

14 Derek Brown Giants TE Notre Dame -

15 Johnny Mitchell Jets TE Nebraska -

>> 16 Chester McGlockton Raiders DT Clemson - 4 pb - + ap

17 Kevin Smith Cowboys DB Texas A&M - 1 ap

18 Dana Hall 49ers DB Washington -

19 Troy Smith Falcons RB Southern Mississippi -

>> 20 Dale Carter Chiefs DB Tennessee - 4 pb - 4 ap

==========================================

1993 - 4 - 0 - top 5 = 2

>> 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots QB Washington State - lots

2 Rick Mirer Seahawks QB Notre Dame

>> 3 Garrison Hearst Cardinals RB Georgia 2 pb - ? ap

4 Marvin Jones Jets LB Florida State -

5 John Copeland Bengals DE Alabama -

6 Eric Curry Buccaneers DE Alabama -

7 Curtis Conway Bears WR USC -

>> 8 William Roaf Saints T Louisiana Tech - 5? pb - 4 ? ap

9 Lincoln Kennedy Falcons T Washington -

>> 10 Jerome Bettis Rams RB Notre Dame - 4 pb - ? ap

-------------------------------------

11 Dan Williams Broncos DE Toledo

12 Patrick Bates Raiders DB Texas A&M -

13 Brad Hopkins Oilers T Illinois -

14 Steve Everitt Browns C Michigan -

15 Wayne Simmons Packers LB Clemson -

16 Sean Dawkins Colts WR California -

17 Tom Carter Redskins DB Notre Dame -

18 Ernest Dye Cardinals T South Carolina -

19 Lester Holmes Eagles G Jackson State -

20 Irv Smith Saints TE Notre Dame -

====================================

 

1994 - 4 - 4 - top 5 = 1

1 Dan Wilkinson Bengals DT Ohio State -

>> 2 Marshall Faulk Colts RB San Diego State lots-

3 Heath Shuler Redskins QB Tennessee -

4 Willie McGinest Patriots DE USC - 1 pb -

5 Trev Alberts Colts LB Nebraska -

6 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers QB Fresno State - 1 pb -

>> 7 Bryant Young 49ers DT Notre Dame - 1 pb - 2? ap

>> 8 Sam Adams Seahawks DT Texas A&M - 3 pb - 1 ap

9 Antonio Langham Browns DB Alabama -

>> 10 Jamir Miller Cardinals LB UCLA - 3 pb - 1 ap

---------------------------------

11 John Thierry Bears DE Alcorn State

>> 12 Aaron Glenn Jets DB Texas A&M - 2 pb - 2? ap

>> 13 Joe Johnson Saints DE Louisville 2 pb -

14 Bernard Williams Eagles T Georgia -

15 Wayne Gandy Rams T Auburn -

16 Aaron Taylor Packers T Notre Dame -

17 Charles Johnson Steelers WR Colorado -

18 DeWayne Washington Vikings DB North Carolina State -

>> 19 Todd Steussie Vikings T California - 2 pb - ?ap

>> 20 Tim Bowens Dolphins DT Mississippi 2 pb

=========================================

1995 - 2 - 4 - top 5 = 1

1 Ki-Jana Carter Bengals RB Penn State

>> 2 Tony Boselli Jaguars T USC - lots

3 Steve McNair Oilers QB Alcorn State - 1 pb

4 Michael Westbrook Redskins WR Colorado -

5 Kerry Collins Panthers QB Penn State - 1 pb -

>> 6 Kevin Carter Rams DE Florida - 2 pb - ?ap

7 Mike Mamula Eagles DE Boston College -

8 Joey Galloway Seahawks WR Ohio State

9 Kyle Brady Jets TE Penn State

10 J.J. Stokes 49ers WR UCLA

--------------------------------------------

11 Derrick Alexander Vikings DE Florida State

>> 12 Warren Sapp Buccaneers DT Miami (FL) - + pb - +ap

13 Mark Fields Saints LB Washington State

>> 14 Reuben Brown Bills G Pittsburgh - 3 pb - 1 + ap

15 Ellis Johnson Colts DT Florida

>> 16 Hugh Douglas Jets DE Central State (OH) - + pb - + ap

17 Tyrone Wheatley Giants RB Michigan

18 Napoleon Kaufman Raiders RB Washington -

19 James Stewart Jaguars RB Tennessee

>> 20 Luther Elliss Lions DE Utah - 2 pb

==========================================

1996 - 5 - 2 - top 5 = 4

>> 1 Keyshawn Johnson Jets WR USC - 1 + pb - 1+ ap

>> 2 Kevin Hardy Jaguars LB Illinois - 1+ pb - 1+ ap

>> 3 Simeon Rice Cardinals DE Illinois - 1+ pb 1+ ap

>> 4 Jonathan Ogden Ravens T UCLA - 2+ pb - 1+ ap

5 Cedric Jones Giants DE Oklahoma -

6 Lawrence Phillips Rams RB Nebraska -

>> 7 Terry Glenn Patriots WR Ohio State - 1+ pb - 1+ ab

8 Tim Biakabutuka Panthers RB Michigan -

9 Rickey Dudley Raiders TE Ohio State -

10 Willie Anderson Bengals T Auburn -

-----------------------------------------

11 Alex Molden Saints DB Oregon -

12 Regan Upshaw Buccaneers DE California -

13 Walt Harris Bears DB Mississippi State -

>> 14 Eddie George Oilers RB Ohio State - 2+ pb - 1+ ap

15 John Mobley Broncos LB Kutztown (PA) - 1 ap

16 Duane Clemons Vikings DE California -

17 Reggie Brown Lions LB Texas A&M -

18 Eddie Kennison Rams WR LSU -

>> 19 Marvin Harrison Colts WR Syracuse - +pb - +ap

20 Daryl Gardener Dolphins DT Baylor -

==============================================

1997 - 5 - 2 - top 5 = 4

>> 1 Orlando Pace Rams T Ohio State - 1+ pb - 1+ ap

>> 2 Darrell Russell Raiders DT USC - 1+ pb - 1+ ap

>> 3 Shawn Springs Seahawks DB Ohio State - 1+ pb - 1+ ap

>> 4 Peter Boulware Ravens DE Florida State - 2 pb

5 Bryant Westbrook Lions DB Texas -

>> 6 Walter Jones Seahawks T Florida State - 1+ pb - 1+ ap

7 Ike Hilliard Giants WR Florida -

8 James Farrior Jets LB Virginia -

9 Tom Knight Cardinals DB Iowa -

10 Chris Naeole Saints G Colorado -

------------------------------------------

11 Michael Booker Falcons DB Nebraska -

>> 12 Warrick Dunn Buccaneers RB Florida State - 2 pb

>> 13 Tony Gonzalez Chiefs TE California - 1+ pb 1+ ap

14 Reinard Wilson Bengals DE Florida State -

15 Yatil Green Dolphins WR Miami (FL) -

16 Reidel Anthony Buccaneers WR Florida -

17 Kenard Lang Redskins DE Miami (FL) -

18 Kenny Holmes Oilers DE Miami (FL) -

19 Tarik Glenn Colts T California -

20 Dwayne Rudd Vikings LB Alabama - 1 ap

====================================

1998 - 2 - 2 - top 5 = 2

>> 1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee - + pb - +ap

2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State

3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State -

>> 4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan - + pb - + ap

5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State

6 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska -

7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State - 1 ap

8 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina -

9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida -

10 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL) -

--------------------------------------

>> 11 Tra Thomas Eagles T Florida State - 2 pb - 1 ap

>> 12 Keith Brooking Falcons LB Georgia Tech - 2 pb

13 Takeo Spikes Bengals LB Auburn

14 Jason Peter Panthers DT Nebraska -

15 Anthony Simmons Seahawks LB Clemson -

16 Kevin Dyson Oilers WR Utah -

17 Brian Simmons Bengals LB North Carolina -

18 Robert Edwards Patriots RB Georgia -

19 Vonnie Holliday Packers DT North Carolina -

20 Terry Fair Lions DB Tennessee -

======================================

 

 

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

1999

1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky

2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse

3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon

4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL) ++++++++ 1999 ap

5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas

6 Torry Holt Rams WR North Carolina State

7 Champ Bailey Redskins DB Georgia

8 David Boston Cardinals WR Ohio State

9 Chris Claiborne Lions LB USC

10 Chris McAlister Ravens DB Arizona

------------------------------------------

11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings QB Central Florida

12 Cade McNown Bears QB UCLA

13 Troy Edwards Steelers WR Louisiana Tech

14 John Tait Chiefs T Brigham Young

15 Anthony McFarland Buccaneers DT LSU

16 Jevon Kearse Oilers LB Florida +++++++ ap 1999

17 Damien Woody Patriots C Boston College

18 Matt Stinchcomb Raiders T Georgia

19 Luke Petitgout Giants T Notre Dame

20 Ebenezer Ekuban Cowboys DE North Carolina

=========================================

2000

1 Courtney Brown Browns DE Penn State

2 LaVar Arrington Redskins LB Penn State

3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama

4 Peter Warrick Bengals WR Florida State

5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee

6 Corey Simon Eagles DT Florida State

7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia

8 Plaxico Burress Steelers WR Michigan State

9 Brian Urlacher Bears LB New Mexico

10 Travis Taylor Ravens WR Florida

---------------------------------------

11 Ron Dayne Giants RB Wisconsin

12 Shaun Ellis Jets DE Tennessee

13 John Abraham Jets LB South Carolina

14 Bubba Franks Packers TE Miami (FL)

15 Deltha O'Neal Broncos DB California

16 Julian Peterson 49ers LB Michigan State

17 Sebastian Janikowski Raiders K Florida State

18 Chad Pennington Jets QB Marshall

19 Shaun Alexander Seahawks RB Alabama

20 Stockar McDougle Lions T Oklahoma

======================================

2001

1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech

2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas

3 Gerard Warren Browns DT Florida

4 Justin Smith Bengals DE Missouri

5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian

6 Richard Seymour Patriots DT Georgia

7 Andre Carter 49ers DE California

8 David Terrell Bears WR Michigan

9 Koren Robinson Seahawks WR North Carolina State

10 Jamal Reynolds Packers DE Florida State

----------------------------------------------

11 Dan Morgan Panthers LB Miami (FL)

12 Damione Lewis Rams DT Miami (FL)

13 Marcus Stroud Jaguars DT Georgia

14 Kenyatta Walker Buccaneers T Florida

15 Rod Gardner Redskins WR Clemson

16 Santana Moss Jets WR Miami (FL)

17 Steve Hutchinson Seahawks G Michigan

18 Jeff Backus Lions T Michigan

19 Casey Hampton Steelers DT Texas

20 Adam Archuleta Rams DB Arizona State

==========================================

2002

1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State

2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina

3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon

4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas

5 Quentin Jammer Chargers DB Texas

6 Ryan Sims Chiefs DT North Carolina

7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL)

8 Roy Williams Cowboys DB Oklahoma

9 John Henderson Jaguars DT Tennessee

10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State

-------------------------------------

11 Dwight Freeney Colts LB Syracuse

12 Wendell Bryant Cardinals DT Wisconsin

13 Donte Stallworth Saints WR Tennessee

14 Jeremy Shockey Giants TE Miami (FL)

15 Albert Haynesworth Titans DT Tennessee

16 William Green Browns RB Boston College

17 Phillip Buchanon Raiders DB Miami (FL)

18 T.J. Duckett Falcons RB Michigan State

19 Ashley Lelie Broncos WR Hawaii

20 Javon Walker Packers WR Florida State

 

====================

 

i dont think anyone (or at least myself) are trying to imply that if you pick in the top 5 or 10 that you are guaranteed a high impact player with that pick. the lists i posted clearly show that. but... i think what it does show is that you have a better chance at achieving the goal of every organization by picking in these slots than in lower ones.

 

to aquire a franchise player it can't just be determined by money vs. reward risk when you draft. otherwise why even draft at all in the first round? you will end up like the redskins under the former bear dc george allen and even without the the salary cap at that time it just didn't work.

 

drafting high... will you miss sometimes? absolutely! but the old saying if you DON'T try you will NEVER succeed. if teams that draft consistanly in the top 5 spots can afford it every year why can't the bear organization in the few times over decades afford it? i think the fact that this franchise has had ONE quality qb in 40 years speaks volumes of the risk reward consequences.

 

these are some interesting draft stats. below are chicago bear hall of fame players and where they were drafted:

 

HOF 1st round top 10 picks

 

1. Clyde Bulldog Turner 7th pick 1st round

2. Joe Stydahar 6th pick 1st round

3. Gayle Sayers 4th pick 1st round

4. Walther Payton 4th pick 1st round

5. Dan Hampton 4th pick 1st round

6. George McAfee 2nd pick 1st round (drafted by eagles and immediately traded to bears)

7. Sid Luckman 2nd pick 1st round

8. Mike Ditka 5th pick 1st round

9. George Connor 5th pick 1st round (drafted by ny giants)

10. Dick Butkus 3rd pick 1st round

 

HOF 1st round picks 11 - +

 

1. Doug Atkins 11th pick 1st round

 

HOF later rounds

 

1. Mike Singletary 38th pick 2nd round

2. Stan Jones 5th round

3. Bill George 2nd round

4. Danny Fortmann 9th round pick

5. George Blanda 12th round

 

HOF not listed as draft picks. prior to 1936

 

1. Bronco Nagurski

2. George Musso

3. Roy Lyman

4. Bill Hewitt

5. Ed Healey

6. George Halas

7. John Driscol

 

one last item... cheap does not always relate to player salaries and even more-so today. cheap does relate to franchises that skimp on coaches and/or salaries, a scouting program, player personel salaries etc. facilities.

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