Looking at DVOA from last year, the Bears had the 22nd offense and 17th defense for the season. Here is how the rest of the North looked:
DET 5th/13th
GB 6th/27th
MIN 23rd/11th
So just say the offense gets to 15th (right at league average), and the defense improves to a top 10 defense (they were top 5 the last 7 weeks of last year). That would put them at 15th/10th. There were 3 teams to finish in the teens in both offense and defense last year, HOU, NO, and JAX. That should be a 10-7 record.
Now looking at the other teams, DET's offense looks to be exactly the same, and based on previous seasons, most teams have a dip, so I expect DET to be top 10, but not top 5, say 8th. On defense, they should be slightly better, say 12th. That would put them at 8th/12th, and probably atop the division again. This is 11-12 wins.
For GB, this will be interesting. They finished with the 6th offense and 27th defense. I feel like their offense is going to come down to earth, say 10th, and their defense will be better, say 22nd. That would put them at 10th/22nd. This is 8-9 wins.
Lastly we have MIN, their offense was terrible last year and now has a rookie QB. I think they will be worse on offense, say 25th, and their defense is going to stay exactly the same at 11th. So 25th/11th. This is 6-7 wins.
So with the factual scientific data output, we get:
Lions 11-6 #2 Seed
Bears 10-7 WC1
Packers 8-9
Vikings 6-11