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I read the predraft stuff on him, and he wasnt anyones first round pick - that's all I mean. He definitely is athletic, and anyone can outperform their scouting, but I just need to see it on the field. For example, what I thought of Swift before this season, based on everything I'd ever seen from him before said we would be replacing him this year. But he outplayed his former level, and definitely showed me things id never seen from him before. Surely a rookie who was injured and got no snaps could have an upside. Im not limiting him. Im just saying i wont believe it until i see it. Until then, he's what i said (in my mind) but of course i hope he balls out. Same with Dexter etc. any player that wants to suddenly become a stud is ok with me!

I dont think Jacas will be there at 57 - I think some teams know what hes got.

I agree with almost everything you said but Turner has more upside than you suggested. He is a perfect fit for DAs scheme. Speed , length and a quickness. Also JJ is a dedicated hard worker and will get back to top 10 form at CB. Spot on with everything else.

I like both but if drafted in the second round. Zion is ranked middle round, Gabe about 10 spots lower. ( Draft buzz)They are similar but Zion is a better run defender but watching 3 games tape of both, l lean towards Gabe. That's a small sample size, I agree but Gabe being a former wrestling champion, he seems more physical to me. Production is similar, I'll let the scouts decide who have watched every snap they took in college. If they take one in the first, it could be TJ Parker that has more speed and big play abilities. He had 6 FFs in 2024. Personally I am now thinking they may go S in the first because DEs is a deeper class and have a better chance of getting a Zion or Gabe in the second. Ideal for me would be Theinaman/25 - Jacas/ 57 and Gracian Halton at 60. All the brass went to Oklahoma pro day, not sure who else they would have been interested in if not for Halton.

Haven’t looked into Jacas much yet but I will. These are two similar players.

its funny AZ54, we almost always agree, but on this one, we don't. i think Zion isnt' going to be a productive pass rusher in the NFL. I prefer Gabe Jacas by a lot to be the same kind of player but more successful in the NFL. Time will tell, so it'll be interesting to watch this one unfold, whoever they play for.

I spent some time yesterday digging into Zion Young. He plays with power, quickness, and hustle. He reminds me of Jared Verse with his power. Not being an expert I’d say I don’t see a complete set of pass rush moves but that also means there is room for upside. He plays the run very well too with the strength to hold his ground, even against some TE/RB + OT double teams, and gets off those blocks. He’s generally listed as a 2nd Rd player but rumors are that he’s rising up draft boards. He is not the most twitched up bendy guy but he has enough to get around the outside edge of an OT. He also shows enough strength to hold up inside and will be very effective on stunts or just lining up inside as an interior pass rusher. I’ve been pushing for a DT at 25 but the more I think about it I wouldn’t be surprised if he is our pick at 25. The combination of Young and Booker coming off the edge would be a problem for QBs because they both close very quickly once they get a path. Also, when considering why we drafted Shemar Turner last year one of the reasons was the violence and aggressiveness he played with. Zion has a similar style, albeit with less after-the-whistle action, and is a better athlete. He is also the type of versatile player they said they wanted (or thought they got) in Dayo but we never saw it. So that has to be on the wish list for Dennis Allen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClNJAGGC8LA p.s. I'm well aware Mel Kiper mocked him to Chicago a little while ago but that didn't, and does not, influence my opinion. Too many of the pundits are just throwing darts killing time now before the draft to generate discussion and clicks.

Byard had some great INTs. I think in some cases, DA put him in positions to get them, so if some of them were scheme related, we will keep that. But Bryant is a LOT faster than Byard, and hes a very good football player. I think it's a clear upgrade. My 2 cents.

All good points. I think you gotta look at what we have now, assuming everyone is healthy. Defensive Edge Montez Sweat is a decent player. He might be a 10 sack guy. He doesn't put fear in anyone, but he'd be a solid DE2 on most good defenses. Austin Booker is an ascending player. He's not a DE1 terror, but I can't say what he will become. He looks like he has what it takes. Dayo Odeyingbo is a solid running down kind of guy, but he's not going make a QB uncomfortable. Another year of experience for Booker could make this an upgrade over last year. We still need to add a real talent at edge. Sure, Booker could ascend, but it hasnt happened yet, and even if so we still need another player for the rotation. Defensive Tackle Neville Gallamore is a high motor high effort guy who can play nose or 3T. He's not a Pro Bowler, but he's solid, and has good football instincts. Shemar Turner is a high energy guy who could be decent, but is not expected to be great coming out of college. He brings good energy, but he is not expected to be an impact player. Grady Jarrett brings great veteran leadership, but he's slowed with age. He will likely not be an impact player for us. Gervon Dexter is a slow rotational player at best with poor football instincts who gives up on plays too easily. Neville Gallamore is an upgrade over anything we had last year, but still will need to add talent in the middle. Linebackers TJ Edwards has played well for us, and he will continue to be a plus player. He is kinda slow though, so an upgrade for him is coming this year or next. Devin Bush is a fast heat seeking missile. He's OK in coverage, but he plays the run and blitzes at a very high level. He identifies the play quickly and shoots gaps and sheds blocks at an elite level. He and Kyler Gordon will make our blitzes difficult to deal with. Demarco Jackson is an ascending player who has good football IQ. He might have been our best LB last year. Let's see how he does this year. Jack Sandborn is a tough player, but he lacks the necessary speed to stay with receivers, tight ends and some running backs. Probably a backup. Bush is a HUGE upgrade for this unit. We still need another faster player, maybe Hippolyte will learn how to play football, but likely there is a faster replacement for Edwards coming this year or next. Safeties Coby Bryant is an excellent player. He's smart, understands the game and will be a leader on our defense. Great signing. Cam Lewis is good depth, but he's not going to rock anyone's world. Ditto for Hicks and Owens. Bryant brings much needed speed to a unit that had been built for zone defense. We will still need another impact player at safety. Maybe a rookie? Cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson was injured for a lot of last year, but many feel he is overpaid and not bringing enough productivity for his price. Hes a good CB, but he's not a top 5 CB. Kyler Gordon, before his injury, was one of the best NB in the league, and is a good chess piece who can play all over the field, and blitz. Tyreek Stephenson is on his way out. He's a decent CB2 sometimes, but his head is not in the game. This may be the last year with us for JJ and Stephenson. JJ might get a cap relieving one year extension, but he is going to want a new deal. Both of these players are decent, and can be expected to play decently this year, but in future plans, both will probably need replacements soon. Overall EDGE - maybe upgrade if Booker ascends. Draft pick likely incoming. DT - upgraded from terrible to OK. Draft pick likely incoming. LB - clear upgrade with Bush, Edwards, Jackson and Sandborn. S - clear upgrade with Bryant, Draft pick likely incoming. CB - no upgrade except people are healthy. Will be decent. So this defense is significantly faster with Bush, Bryant and Gallimore. Those three moves alone, and getting Dexter and Edmunds off the field will greatly improve us from a terrible defense to something better. Getting great with these (or any) players will going to require a real grown up pass rush we don't currently have. We NEED a high level Edge and DT. We also need a safety. Assuming all are addressed in the draft, this defense could be much better than last year. I don't see them being great until the defensive line gets good. High drafted rookies still need time to get accustomed to the NFL game. But we could be a 20th ranked or 15th ranked defense this year based on this roster. If Booker or a rookie catch fire, then better than that. Future plans are going to require CBs, a safety and another LB too. So yes, our defense will be seriously upgraded from last year - but not scary like our offense is. Not yet. Our best chances rely on Booker and good draft picks. All my opinions of course.

And don't forget about our DBs. Going into the season, I thought our starting DBs were our strength on defense. Then JJ & Gordon go down, and to add to our misery, our #2s, which I thought gave us good depth, became injured.

I hate using injuries as an excuse, but it felt like every level had a few guys out every game. On the DL, Turner only played 74 defensive snaps. Jarrett seemed to be dealing with something most of the year. Odeyingbo, regardless of how disappointing he was when he played, still missed most of the season to injury. The LB Corps was playing with LB 3, 4, or 5 as starters for a good chunk of the year. So with some upgrades, this defense could really surprise.

Oh yeah, it really inflates lower quantity stats like INTs.

Thus the eye test. The eyes don't lie...

totally agree. Stats are misleading.

Zero chance Bryant is a downgrade from Byard. There's too much weight on stats. Let's go way back in history to Deion Sanders when nobody wanted to throw to his side of field. Lack of INT and PDs does not mean he was lesser of a player. Anyone can watch film and see Bryant is far better in coverage than Byard. In Byard's case they are also not weighing heavily enough the gaps in coverage when he let plays get past him.

Using AV, comparing last year's value, Dalman to Bradbury is only a slight downgrade 10-9, but both are above league average. Bryant is an upgrade over Brisker, but downgrade from Byard. Bush is an upgrade over Edmunds.

Yeah, it is just a way to approximate value in terms of production in a single number. You could also use it to assess draft successes after a few years. Guys like Loveland, Burden, and Monangai are all near the top for 2025, obviously Caleb is #1 in 2024, Wright tied for 12th in 2023. It's not perfect as it seems to award skill position players more value (or opportunity to get a higher rating). I will say AV feels much more accurate than something like PFF and it also gets better over time.

on the home page, is there any way to not have so much text under the thread link like it was before?

I agree with everything you said.

I saw where we scheduled a visit with Sam Hecht/O weC Kansas State University. I read that too. Rousher gave an Interview and that's what the journalist got out of it. With the top picks after you get the medicals,they have 99%of the information. IMO. No one has ever guessed right who Poles wants. Caleb was a no brainer but he surprises us with every draft. I like the ones they have brought in so far but misinformation is part of the process.

I read an article saying that we now use the visits to double check things we arent sure about - character stuff, maybe to check stiff hips etc etc - basically, that we dont visit the ones were most likely to take but those where we are missing some info or need to see first hand. IF this is true, then some will get crossed off of our lists based on the visit, and some will stay on, but it doesnt mean we prefer them necessarily. Anyway, thats if you believe the article I read. It's lying season, so anything is possible.

I think the word "value" is throwing people off. The AV is just supposed to be a measure of how good a player is compared to his team. Trying to get that into one stat is foolish in my view, but people love easy numbers they can point to. But given where the discussion has gone, it is a really interesting idea to take the AV (if you have faith in it) and divide it by the cap percentage the player takes up. Then you'd be able to see underpaid and overpaid players. Here's a description of how they get the number: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm

NFL TradeRumors seems to have the most up to date information. So far the people they have visits with, they are all day 3 projected picks. I would assume everyone they would take in the first 2 rounds already has done the major work on so these visits should be not top 100 players types and UDFAs .

Like AZ said, value should be related to contracts. Example: Edwards originally signed for a moderate contract and Edmunds got paid a fat contract. Looking at the time they were with the bears, Edwards was clearly more of a value because of the money when you could arguely agree that played similar. Whoever came up with the AV component, is there an explanation of the criteria they used?

It should be normalized that way. Garret contract will represent 13.3% of their cap space at 40mil/yr. He has to provide value equivalent to about 7 or 8 players assuming an average player contract value of 5mil. You need a few players on rookie contracts playing above their value to balance it out. Of course he is good enough to offset some lower performing players but in a game where you are one of 11 on the field how many? If you take his cap hit just for the defense he represents 26% off defensive money(assuming an even split between offense defense).