BearFan PHX

In other Mocks, Brugler has us taking OG Booker and OT Simmons. So he is consistent that we will take OL. 10 is kinda early for a guard isnt it? And Simmons has injury concerns. But moslty I gotta wonder. If Brugler is the holy guru who knows all, why does he keep changing his mind? And how does that prove we are wrong if he proves himself wrong by changing his mind? This is why the argument of authority is a well known logical fallacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

our main needs are the trenches for sure. I wouldnt mind adding S, WR and/or TE too. not necessarily with the first pick though.

I agree - he's almost like another QB coach.

LOL I just googled Bruglers mock draft. He says the player taken by the Bears is... wait for it... OT Kelvin Banks Jr. SO what are you even talking about?! https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2025/the-athletic-2025-dane-brugler?date=2024-12-04

I would love to debate the subjectivity of how you see him vs how I see him - that's what this place is for. What it isnt for is you continuing to make the same logical error. You say Brugler is an authority. I can find other authorities that are just as credentialed as Brugler that agree with me. Therefore being credentialed doesn't mean anything because credentialed people agree with you AND me. And disagree with eachother. If you remove the draft sites you mentioned as fringe (I agree they are - never head of them), the numbers skew even more in my favor. I just took the first 21 and included those sites so you wouldnt say I was cherry picking. The more mainstream the source on that list, the more they agreed with me. And in either case the median average was still 13. And again, you need to understand, I am not saying that because 65%+ of the experts agree with me that I am am right. I am simply saying that PROVES you WRONG when you say "the experts agree that Banks goes 15 to 25." That is factually wrong. That's what the mock drafts showed. Nothing more. So yeah, you have some guys you read that you think are smarter than all of us, and that's your "evidence" that what we think is wrong. Despite us having a majority of experts who agree with us. (which again, doesnt prove anything other than that being an expert doesnt make you right) Make an argument or dont, but I am getting sick of you discounting any opinion that isnt one of the guys you read. Good for you that you follow someone. We are here to debate, and shutting down debate with the continued ONLY argument that we cant know anything or have a valid opinion because we arent your expert is rude. I know what I see when I watch Banks tape. And my opinion is a valid one. I've been right before, I think I deserve the respect of you telling my WHY I'm wrong other than the same tired argument that I'm not an expert, but you ARE because youre just parroting one?

I have no idea what youre talking about. The page I linked to wasnt of fan mocks? it was the main sportswriters at all those major publications. CBS, NBC, FOx Sports, NFL.com, PFF, PFN, Sports Illustrated. THese were the mocks their experts did, the articles they wrote. And I only submitted them to rebut one claim you made - that the experts see Banks as lower than they actually obviously do. that's factually wrong, and I proved it. Maybe Banks sucks, but expert opinions from the mainstream sports press do not make 13 equivalent to 15-25. That's false. I also say that mocks are not what drives my opinion. I just put them there to prove your assertion about experts is wrong. I submitted the most mainsrteam experts. What drives me is film. I know what Ive seen. Your entitled to your opinions of course, but i believe they are wrong. I think Banks is a top pick, experts think he is a top pick, the film says he is a top pick. But thats not proof of course. When all the "experts" were still saying Fields was good, I already KNEW he would never be good. I knew it from the tape. I knew he had crap protection. I didnt count those plays. I knew he had dropped balls, and I didnt count those plays either. But I saw a ton of plays where he was protected with guys open and didnt pull the trigger. Once I knew that I KNEW, not opinion, Id seen the proof. I KNOW what kind of player Banks is. I cannot predict how he or Campbell or any of them will go from here. But I KNOW that right now, hes a top pick, and I feel comfortable with 65% of the so called experts saying he will be gone by 13. Will he go even earlier? I hope not, but it's a distinct possibility. But if youve thought I was putting fan mocks up, you didnt get my point at ALL. Your constant argument seems to be that some writer you trust told you something. It's not YOUR opinion, it's theirs, and then the only defense you give for it is that they are experts and we arent. Well anyone whos read sportswriters for any period of time knows they are not infalliable. To say the least. You say "X says Y" and then maybe we say "well I disagree, because I dont see Y on the tape" and you say "well youre just a stupid fan, and you dont know as much as my guy X knows" and then we say "well heres a bunch of OTHER experts who are JUST as credentialed as yours who disagree!" - doesnt that prove that credentials dont prove anyone is right? If others of the same pedigree disagree? Its a classic logical fallacy called the "argument from authority" and it isnt an argument at all because other authorities disagree, so therefore being an authority doesnt make you right. Being right does. You cant say "2+2=5 because Im a math PHD" and some homeless guy says "well Ive got two beers in one hand, and two in the other and they add up to four" and you say "well youre not a math PHD" so which matters most? logical proof, or credentials? Especially when other math PHDs are saying 2+2=4 and maybe some crazy other ones are saying it equals 2. At some point you have to count the freakin beers and prove your are right or not, regardless of credentials. Watching a LT play and evaluating them isnt rocket science dude. There are things to look for, and it's all on the tape. Many tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people can do it. They may disagree on evaluation, but at least they can argue on points, not just authority. For example Doctor A says you have one disease, Doctor B says another. Im not a doctor but I say I think it's B too. So you say, "you're not a Doctor and Doctor A says its one disease" but... Doctor B IS a doctor and he says something else. So doesnt that mean being a Doctor doesnt mean youre right? My sportswriters are just as credentialed as yours, and they disagree, so being credentialed doesnt prove anything. Thats the logical fallacy - the argument from authority. I wish for once youd just tell me "I dont like your guy Banks because he plays too high" or "Banks has poor lateral movement" or SOMETHING more than a 40 time or an arm measurement - those are lazy narratives that are excuses for not doing the homework of actually watching the tape. But all you say is "well a guy I read doesnt agree with you, and their opinion is better than yours" And at some point, since all the good writers disagree, I gotta just call BS and say "argue something substantive more than just we cant possibly know because we are just fans" because its insulting, and its not really a debate point at all. Seriously, have you watched more than 10 minutes of highlights on any of these guys? You really look at Banks and dont see Pro Bowler potential? Really? You see Membou on tape and think he looks better? I dont think you would say that if youd LOOKED at the tape. It's just something you read someone else said. That's not a debate. It's some combination of blind faith in a couple writers and stubbornness. So from now on, don't tell me my opinion doesn't count because I'm just a fan. A lot of us have been watching football a long time, and I learn stuff from fellow posters here all the time. Lots of smart people here with educated opinions. Tell me why YOU think Im wrong about a player. Tell me what YOU see. This argument of authority thing isn't gonna fly any more. I could well be wrong about anything - tell me why Im wrong, dont just dismiss me (and all of us) by saying we can't know what we're talking about.

CRAP! Just read that Miami star LT Terron Armstead just retired. More competition for LTs, and Miami might even have to trade up, maybe over us, or maybe to us, but then we arent getting Banks after Miami picks at 10 and SF picks at 11.

I dont see how a median of 13 means 15-25 was accurate? 15 - 25 means a general value around 20ish, 13 is much higher? If someone said to redo their small bathroom and they'd give you somewhere between $15k and $25k to do it, and when you finished they gave you $13k, you wouldnt think that was anything like what theyd told you? But we agree 10 isnt too early.

all great names. I love Landon Jackson. Of course i want to see an OT, but these are all players Id love to see on the Bears.

Yeah, not surprised at all! Brisker is great, I just hope he can keep playing.

FWIW, when I started the mock draft comparison I had no idea what the outcome would be. I didn't cherry pick the mocks, I just took the first ones on that site, in order. If research shows me i was off base, then I readjust, Im not just looking for data to prove Im right. THe reason i think Im right is that the data tells me that. Anyway, I dont care about mocks, I was just rebutting your statement that he was widely considered lower and less than he is, and then i looked and low and behold, his median draft was 13th. All I care about is film. I read and listen to people and their opinions, and then I go and see if those opinions are borne out on film. When I look at Banks, I see a smooth, athletic blocker with great technique, when I look at Campbell I see a stiff player who cant handfight, and plays too high. When I look at membou I see an undersized player who doesnt play to the whistle, and who's heart doesnt really seem to be in it. I didnt pick Banks at random and then look for info to prove myself right - this isnt an exercise in ego - it's just the result of wanting to find the best LT pick for the Bears, and I come out that that is Banks.

Im not sure about the "problem" of having 3 LTs in camp for several reasons. First off, unless you think Braxton Jones is going to ascend in some way he hasnt yet, theres not real reason to worry about his reps. He's had his time, and wont be healthy until later anyway. Secondly, if one of these players clearly beats the others, then your LT position is set, and thats a good thing no matter whether you hoped Amagadje would get more time to develop or whatever Third, all these players can play inside too, and we have no real depth, so there is a place for them on the roster. Fourth, Jones is nearing a new contract, and I doubt we will want to pay him market value. Fifth, every year there are injuries. A you say AZ54, it's lying season, so indicating that you dont want 3 LTs might be a tell that you do LOL

No I showed you 21 mock drafts, and in 65% of them he went 13 or earlier. he only dropped past 13, 1/3 of the time. Thats a consensus that he is worth 13. The median (middle value) was 13. This isnt a case where you should take a mathematical mean average. That would be like if we asked 10 people how much money you owe me. 9 of them (including you) say you dont owe me anything, but I say you owe me a Million Dollars. Im full of crap of course, but if you do an average, then you owe me $100,000? No youd say the majority of people agree you owe nothing. Same math here. So Banks is widely considered to go around 13. So 10 is not too early for him at all. In fact it's a few outliers like.... wait for the drumroll... PFF that say he's worth 25 that brings the numbers down anyway. PFF is ruining everyone's draft valuations and expected draft outcomes with their terrible rankings and simulators.

Researching what football writers really do think about Banks. Went to https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/ and took notes on the first 21 Mock Drafts they collected. I got a good cross section, and got bored after 21 of them, but this includes CBS, NBC, FOX, PFN, PFF, SI, Barstool - most of the big ones. Pushing the numbers around I found a few things. Some of them fly in the face of what the mock draft simulators have been telling us. 85% of them had Banks still available to us at pick 10, thats good news for me. 65% of them had Banks off the board by 13. And 13 was Banks' median draft position. So taking him at 10 is right in line with value in these peoples eyes. You cant count on him at 17 or 20 in the trade down scenarios. PFF and a few others have him dropping to 25th which is why the simulators are saying he'll be there, but 2/3 of these had him gone by 13. In some mocks he went as high as: 4 to NE (Fox Sports) 5 to Jacksonville (USA Today) 9 to New Orleans (NBC Sports) Draft Buzz has him ranked as the #7 player in the draft, and as the #1 OT in the draft says about him: Banks projects as a high-ceiling prospect who could excel at either tackle or guard, with the versatility to be a day-one impact starter at either spot. His advanced pass set technique and fluid movement skills translate beautifully to tackle in systems emphasizing quick-game concepts and RPOs, while his natural leverage and explosive power could make him an elite interior force. Though slightly shorter than ideal for tackle, his technical mastery and exceptional awareness more than compensate for any length limitations. His processing speed and technical foundation project particularly well to zone-based systems where his fluid movement skills and expertise in combination blocks can be maximized. While he's shown clear starter ability at tackle, his unique skill set could reach even greater heights at guard, where his natural leverage and explosive power could make him one of the league's premier interior linemen. His quick mental processing and natural feel for angles should allow him to dominate at either position. Banks has the tools to develop into a Pro Bowl-caliber player at either spot, with his ceiling potentially even higher at guard. His floor appears to be that of a quality starting tackle, with All-Pro potential if kicked inside. ---- I think the PFF grade we are all routinely assuming is correct about him is instead a big outlier among the rest of the Football Evaluation sites. This doesnt prove anything, except that Banks is not projected to be a mid round, non blue chipper. That's just PFF talk.

yeah, it's lying season for sure. never know how to take it. Johnson says Jones is great, Allen says Tyler Warren is great. etc. One thing that I like about Poles and now Johnson too, is they don't lie by mumbling and saying nothing like Belichick does, they lie by saying truly positive things, things that are true about players. When they say they like Jone's length they DO! But as to how that figures into a total grade and who they're riding with or dropping, there's no info there. They wont compare players for example. But they will analyze the positive qualities of anyone. And a big unknown is whether Roushar has already told Johnson that Jones or Amagadje is a perfect specimen for them and they think they can scheme and coach him into a dominant player. That they know exactly why they failed before, and know they can fix it. If Roushar said that about Amagadje for example, then we already have our blue chip starting LT on the roster. I would be surprised if this was true, but if it was, I wouldnt have any way of knowing that, so my draft predictions would be really skewed

One more point: when I say I don't listen to writers and sites, I'm being too vague. I totally listen. I hear what they praise about a player, and I hear what they complain about about a player, and when I watch film, I'm testing those ideas to see if theyre true or not. By then I've probably even forgotten who said what. THeyre just ideas to test. The thing is, even if I wanted to "trust the experts" they often disagree with each other. So there isn't even a specific point of view. Then you're picking who you trust most among the pundits, and no one is always right, so I listen, but then I see if I see what they see.

now we are REALLY agreeing. This means most positions are deeper than OT. And if you think (like I do) that we need a starter quality OT, and find none likely available by our 2nd round picks, then you'd be on board with all my crazy plans, like taking Banks at 10, taking Ersery at 10, or trading down in the 1st but still in Ersery range? There are great HBs, S, WR, TE and some help on the DL too in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but nothing for quality LTs.

This is how we can disagree and both be right I dont care what the sites say, I just look at the player, but it's all good that we just don't agree on Banks. That's cool. OOPS hit return too soon, see the last part below...

Oh hell yes. That draft is so good, it's kind of impossible! I would do cartwheels, and for the record, I doubt very seriously I can physically do cartwheels LOL Can you do something similar on nfldraftbuzz.com? To me, thats the much tougher one with those good players rated higher. I want Banks of course. I like three safeties; Emmanwori, Starks and Watts, so great there. I also think Landon Jackson is underrated and a really good pass rusher. These players are right in line with the guys I like, but I doubt they last this far? But for the draft simulator game? This is an A+ draft for me. Take someone else instead of Mason Taylor and pick up TE Oronde Gadsden in the 5th, and see if you can add WR Jack Bech at 45, and I would just weep for joy. EDIT: you know, I dont see Banks falling this far, but Ersery is ripe for around the 19th pick. If you could make these same trades, this could be realistic with Ersery instead of Banks. Thatd be pretty good.

I listed the top three picks. not hiding anything. Urlacher and Brown were taken the year before Gabriel was head of scouting. His record is right there, and it's really awful. Well, I respect your right to have an opinion, just as you do mine, but since we disagree we dont share the same opinions, and that's fine too. I promise Im not attacking you, but I think Gabriel is a fool, and i think we need a LT. And its totally cool if you disagree. I like what youre trying to do here - find some objective metric to prove who won the debate. The only thing is, Im not predicting what the Bears WILL do, but what I think they SHOULD do. So there will be a reckoning over the season (or two) that will sort out whether Jones will work out, or Banks etc - we will see how Ersery and Campbell does wherever he lands etc. But I wont say the draft outcome proves who is right, but I do agree that the next couple of years will? I try to read what I can, and then relate it to what I see on tape. I did post a few short highlight reels here so people can see what Banks and Campbell actually look like, how much smoother Banks is etc - but the point youve made that a 2 min film doesnt tell the story is absolutely right. I think I put a disclaimer on my post too, because I agree with that. But I watch 3 or 4 game halves against quality opponents (top pick DEs) and I see every snap of those halves. I see a lot - and no one is perfect, so I see the failures too. The question I ask myself is what are the attributes I see. What style do they have. Where are their talents and can the weaknesses be coached out or are they fundamental. For example Banks may get beaten at times, but there is no pattern to it. Campbell gets his ass kicked on hand fighting constantly. Banks has great body position and anchors well, Campbell plays high on every snap. He is strong, but NFL players will take that inherent advantage away, and I think Campbell's poor technique will be exposed where Banks will grow and mature because his fundamentals are solid. He just turned 21 too, so he is young. Roushar will be great for him. None of that gets into sportswriter articles. I honestly doubt how much film they actually even watch. I dont think a sportwriters job is to find and tell the truth. I think it's to get eyeballs, so they play in the narratives like making Marvel sequels to a crowd that's already shown an appetite for those stories. I love the TTNL guys this time of year, because they watch film, and he includes his dad who was a college head coach and was offered positions as OL coach on several NFL teams. I listen to what he says to look at on the film, and over the years Ive educated my eye, especially on the OL, to know what to look for. Now that doesnt mean I agree with everything they say. They like Campbell more than I do. about 15% of the time, I think "that wasnt as bad (or good) an example as what theyre saying" so its a give and take. And over the time with all that watching, I develop an opinion. And it's MY opinion. It well could be wrong, I'm certain it has flaws, but it is earned in hours of watching tape. So I know WHY I think something. I can't just read what writers say and regurgitate to each other (or to be fair, are contrarian on too) and think I know anything. And to me, the perfect example is Membou. These same writers had him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick to convert to guard. Then he shows some athleticism, runs a fast 40 (what does that have to do with playing OT?) and suddenly he's everyone's favorite. That's just reacting to numbers. When I see him on tape I see him give up on plays, his heart isn't in it. I see a Nate Davis in the making. No combine number measures that. So, we disagree on a bunch of things. I suspect that if you saw what I saw, we might agree more. So we disagree on players, and even how to bring in information to make decisions BUT you have every right to your opinion, and no one knows everything (meaning I dont!) so Im not trying to fight or disrespect you. I DO disagree with what you say, but not with you as a person. And lastly I will say that the few things weve argued about before that got heated were about players and coaches already in the NFL with NFL tape on them. When I got dogmatic early about Leno, Fields and Eberflus, I felt I KNEW I was right. And I think time has showed that I was. But I dont have that kind of certainty on any draft picks that haven't played in the NFL yet. I have strong opinions, but I am not convinced that I am RIGHT the way I have been a few times after seeing a couple seasons of NFL work on players and coaches. Any rookie can learn, grow and surprise us. That's not a reason to draft someone just on that hope, but it is a reason for me to admit that I cant be SURE that Campbell wont become a great OT - just that I wouldnt make that bet right now. Hope that all makes sense.

Gabriel was head of scouting during a period of time where we had so many misses in the draft - it is only logical to assume the scouting info was trash. Then as I have read his takes since over the year he sticks out as one of the worst prognosticators of the entire world of sports commentators, which is really saying something. I feel perfectly comfortable saying that he is a total idiot.

I dont understand the faith in Braxton Jones. If you watch the tape from last year, he can be bull rushed into the QB on any down the defense chooses. LT is our biggest hole, and RB is #2.

LOL Gabriel was against drafting Caleb - he is a total moron who fights with users on twitter LOL He was director of scouting for the Bears from 2001 to 2010. Let's look at the Bears top 3 picks during his time directing their scouting department. It's a litany of ineptitude. We should literally do the opposite of what this guy says. Especially when it comes to Offensive Linemen - his eye is just broken. 2001 David Terrell Anthony Thomas (decent pick) Mike Gandy 2002 Marc Colombo Roosevelt Williams Terrence Metcalf 2003 Michael Haynes Rex Grossman Charles Tillman (good pick!) 2004 Tommie Harris (good pick) Tank Johnson Bernard Berrian 2005 Cedric Benson Mark Bradley Kyle Orton 2006 Danieal Manning Devin Hester (good pick, but only a KR) Dusty Dvoracek 2007 Greg Olsen (good pick) Dan Bauzin Garrett Wolfe 2008 Chris Williams Matt Forte (good pick) Earl Bennett 2009 Jarron Gilbert Jauquin Iglesias Henry Melton 2010 Major Wright Corey Wooten Joshua Moore

I agree, Banks would be an upgrade at LT, and if you see a better LT next year or the year after in the draft, then Banks is an All Pro guard. If he's there at 10, I think he's the smartest pick. My only caveat to this plan, is if you love Ersery, and can package our two 2nd rounders to move up into the late first round to grab him, then you can spend 10 on Jeanty or the DT from Michigan. But you gotta KNOW you can get Ersery then. Otherwise you can take Banks or Ersery at 10, and grab a HB like Kaleb Johnson in the 2nd along with DL, S, WR or TE. Either way thats a very solid draft.

to compare, here is Campbell, look how stiff he is, how high he plays, and his bad handfighting, plus how he is leaky inside. Yuck! This film is 1:38 long - well under 2 min