BearFan PHX

even with a mediocre output from this group, records should be broken, which says two things; our roster is pretty good and Bears offensive records are pretty weak.

I think it confuses things more than it helps them, but obviously everyone talks about them, and I am certainly not here to tell anyone not to! But neither do i think a PFF ranking or stat is "evidence" in a discussion, debate or argument? I dont' even see it as a confirming piece of evidence to pile on after something more reasonable says something. That's why i say they are random and not wrong. Sometimes they are right, but not because of math, just because of luck in my opinion. I mean these are the people that told us that Charles Leno gave us performances that ranked near the top of the league!

my contention is that the next gen stats of PFF are not valid. That's because they amplify noise in the signal to the point that the output is mostly random. Even looking at a well known non PFF originated stat like QB rating. It makes assumptions about what style a good QB should be. It weights certain things against other things, but like all stats, it cant include context. If, for example, you look at Brett Favre's interceptions, they would make you think the guy wasnt careful with the ball. A lot of people fall into the trap, calling him a gunslinger. But if you look deeper, you find that a high percentage of his interceptions happened near the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters, especially when losing. You can also see how many game winners he threw. An interception in the last 2 minutes, down 10 points is really different from one up 10 points in the 3rd quarter. But the stat doesnt take that into account. Barry Sanders has the most runs for a loss in NFL history. Thats a bad stat, but in context, you want him on your team. Similarly, even if PFF has some next gen stuff that starts with real world objective data, there is nothing that says the way they relate that data provides a useful outcome. When I see some of the claims PFF makes, I find them laughable, and so i dont trust their math to provide outputs that are helpful or even describe what kind of job a player is doing. I do assume PFF wants to provide helpful data and rankings, but I think they make too much out of too few data points, and the relational algorithms that process that data are flawed and always would be. And this makes sense because if there were clear statistics that were more predictive, we'd all be talking about them, and they'd show on the field. It's seductive to use stats that seem to have such clear claims in numbers and rankings, but In the end, no stat can really capture the truth of how a player performs the way watching the tape can?

PFF is random though

It's all been said over and over. The reasons i think what i think are clear, and the stats you're using to bolster your argument are clear too. There's no need to go around in circles so i won't repeat it all again. Time will tell what happens.

Yeah Im not pointing the finger at anyone here, I dont hear anyone here saying he is a true stud, obviously weve had discussions about future trades (or not!) for him, but Im not saying anyone is overstating him. I dont know if I agree he has "good" hands or anything, BUT I was just saying that if Kmet plays well, I totally agree Johnson will know how to use them, and i was even thinking of some of what the Patriots did with Gronkowski and Hernandez when they had them both. So I agree there too. I'm not betting the farm on Kmet, but I don't think it is impossible for him to play well. I just think he would have progressed more by now, so he's kind of topping out, way short of his expectations or contract, but if he DOES mature this offseason, having 2 TEs that can really play will be a fun toy for Johnson for sure. I just think he's gonna have to show quick, this train is leaving the station, and they aren't gonna wait around for the light to come on for Kmet. I always though he had potential, but i think we all agree that so far, he hasn't really lived up to his draft status. I really hope he does! That would be an extra weapon Im not counting on right now, and Johnson would be even scarier with yet another dimension.

OMG YES thank you for saying that. I've been hating that for a while about Caleb, and I also just noticed him NOT doing it in camp clips. Theyre fixing his footwork, eliminating the pat, and working on pouty body language. Only time will tell, but right now i am really glad we got Johnson and not Mike Vrabel. I wanted Vrabel early because I know this team needs discipline, but i gotta say, so far it sure looks like Ben Johnson has brought some. And it's not from rah rah speeches at the press conferences either. No HITS acronyms. or all male disco parties after wins. It's just on the field, in the play to play mechanics, where it's real.

PFF is random. People love it because they do a lot of clear rankings and ratings, and they use numbers, so they are fun and easy to understand an compare. But PFF is nonsense. Now, despite my feelings about what I think Cole Kmet really is, *IF* he was to break out and be a great player, then we might be looking at film of the Patriots when they had Gronkowski and Hernandez for ideas. I'm sure there are a lot of ways to use two great TEs, especially with Moore and Odunze on the outside. So I understand the excitement from those that think Kmet has that kind of skill set. Of course, neither one is Gronkowski, especially Loveland being more of a tall and nifty slot receiver, so the same concepts wouldn't map over 1 to 1, but the matchup problems are obvious, and a true dual TE threat is a real problem for defenses. If Loveland could be a Tony Gonzalez type for us, that alone is gonna be great for Caleb and our offense.

well Bagent was always bad with the long ball, and im not shocked that Keenum is putting touch and leading swing routes like a vet while Caleb is still learning the finer points of touch. That doesnt really concern me too much at this point. I am eager to see this on the field and then start picking it apart, or praising it, or both.

Yeah and I didn't dig - I mean if I'd have even read the amount ($37.5M!) I'd have choked right there and known something was wrong.

You know what Stinger? I think you're right. I saw the story a few weeks ago, from several sources, but not any sources i really knew. And today i just googled it and pasted it without really reading it. I re-reading, there is NO WAY we signed Bagent for $18M a year for 2 years! And as I looked futher, no reputable sources had it. So I guess it's internet bullshit, and I have no problem saying you were right and I was wrong about this. I had seen some opinion pieces in reputable places that said he would be in line for an extension, so when I saw the fake story, I just thought it was true - it wasnt particularly interesting, so i didnt dig into to it - but I should have. But 2 years $37.5M?? LOL no way. So, I full admit you were right and I was wrong about this one.

https://sportfigur.com/2025/05/09/tyson-bagent-signs-two-year-37-5-million-contract-extension-with-chicago-bears/

And the NFL is reworking some of the race based policies too i think, so I hope we will still get those picks when Cunningham gets a GM job.

something is up - I dunno what it is, but yes something...

Yes, I JUST wrote "And of course Ersery was on my radar and Trapilo wasnt, so it was a surpise for me, but Im willing to say that was a good trade."

no its not the original contract anymore - they extended it, which means a new longer deal.

they extended Bagents contract.

I actually think they KIND OF can, and that we did a good job of that. We targeted tradedowns, and the teams that took the players before us traded up into those spots, and that's where we were potentially a little too greedy? So we might have correctly predicted the teams on the board, but not considered people trading ahead of us.

right, Im talking about the tradedowns after that. 3rd round and later. I would have taken Ersery at 41, but if Trapilo works out, then that trade down was fantastic, and Turner (is that who you meant instead of Stewart?) is going to be great for us. So that trade down worked out OK *IF* Trapilo is good. And of course Ersery was on my radar and Trapilo wasnt, so it was a surpise for me, but Im willing to say that was a good trade. Im talking about after that, when we let HBs go, traded down, and then saw them stolen right before we picked - I think that happened twice? Like we were going down our HB list, and kept getting played. The question was more like KJ or Sketebo vs Rah the CB and someone else from the 5th round.

that all makes sense. i think they Bears might toy with the idea of converting him to a coach if circumstances force it, like an injury like you say, or a good crop of developing young players.

true. the 3rd emergency QB doesnt count against the gameday 47 or 48 or whatever that number is. But if that costs us one of our drafted guys getting poached off of the practice squad, then all the more reason to have taken a HB earlier and not trade down?

Im talking about in the 3rd round and later - our trade backs. There was an interview with Jeff King, which i cant find now, where he acknowledged that they were hoping for other HBs earlier; Kaleb Johnson, Cam Sketbo and one other guy I forget. There have also been a ton of articles suspecting the same. It seems like, more than once, we targeted a HB and traded back only to have someone pop up in front of us and take one of those HBs within a few picks of our new traded back picks. From all of this, I conclude that Pace read the board as afar as who needed what, and maximized value by trading back, but failed to calculate other teams trading in front of us to snag that HB. Also, just logically, would you rather have Kaleb Johnson or Cam Skatebo vs. our extra later picks that we got in those tradedowns?

Here's an interesting idea. Im not saying it will happen, but it has occurred to me. Given these facts: Case Keenum has said in interviews that he had planned to retire before this offseason, and then he met with Ben Johnson, and that turned him around. Keenum's primary role on this team is to mentor Caleb. We just paid Tyson Bagent, extending his contract. Roster spots are precious. Is it possible that Keenum will transition from player to coach when we cut down the roster? I could see him as Caleb's mentor, and he doesnt need to be a player to do that. Just thinking about stuff. Not saying i know it will happen, but it does fit the facts, and open a roster spot on the 53?

Yes, I am talking about the HBs. In multiple cases, we could have taken a HB we coveted, but instead traded down, betting they would still be there, and in each case, they miscalculated. I've also said that if Trapilo starts and does well, and Monangai is a good contributor, then it all ended well anyway. That's true. But it doesn't change that Poles also misread the board multiple times. If you have 30 lottery tickets, and you trade them for 1 lottery ticket, that is a mistake, EVEN IF the one you got turns out to be the winner in the end. Unless you had some inside info that your ticket had a batter chance to win, it was a mistake. The conversation with Jeff King was about missing on HBs. So unless we had Monongai rated higher than Kaleb Johnson, Cam Skatebo, and there was one other I'm forgetting, it was a series of mistakes. And that doesnt mean that the players we DID get wont be good. We could have done a great job of identifying late round talent, and having a board deep enough to withstand these mistakes too. We could have a great board, and misplayed draft day, both. But if I'm gonna praise Poles for drafting Odunze, for example, then I can criticize him for misjudging how far he could trade down to get HBs too.

again, most of what im talking about is the trade downs, and whether we got the player we expected to get when we made the trade. i think we didnt, and so we miscalculated in our trade downs throughout the draft. And I think that's a problem. Its OK to see positive and negative things in your team.