BearFan PHX

Have you seen him play? From the little I read he sounds good, his value is about right too. Maybe an excellent pick.

Got it, your prediction as GM is that Glennon is a better choice for us than Trubisky will be. OK We will see. Every GM talks about BPA, and you are a pick based on position guy AND devalue the QB position LOL Pace did the right thing, professional meathead TV and online website analysts will whine about and some fans will join their outrage. Meanwhile, this is what a real GM looks like. We haven't had one in Chicago for a long time. THANK YOU Ernie Accorsi!

Right, so youre of the camp that these guys need to be able to predict the future and if they cant fire em and get someone else at GM until you find someone that can predict the future. And heres whats so funny about that. First off its a fantasy, no one will ever be able to predict the future. Secondly, and even funnier, it means YOU are employing the same strategy that Pace is LOL You will keep changing guys until one proves he can predict the future. So youre actually cool with the strategy, you just think its easier to find someone who can predict the future than to find someone who can play QB. Let me also suggest that if there was a cant miss QB that professionals could easily see was going to be the guy, he wouldn't have been available at #3, #2 or for any trade. The Browns just would have picked him. So back here in the real world, Pace is choosing the only strategy that could result in us having a good QB. He's paying the high market price to take legitimate shots at finding an NFL franchise QB. If it's not Trubisky, we will take another shot.

I agree that LOT becomes a more important position now, and so does WR and TE. But I don't agree that Pace has staked his career. As fans, we and the pundits see everything as a test. If you pick the right guy youre a genius, and if you pick the wrong one youre an idiot. But no GM can actually predict the future. You can pay someone millions of dollars and threaten to kill their family if they don't correctly pick next weeks stock prices, but there is no way they can. They can take educated guesses, and make weighted risks, and over time the good ones will win more than they lose, but to think anyone in the NFL can tell you with certainty who Trubisky will be in 4 years is nonsense. It's like a world champion poker player. That guy or girl wins routinely, and you see them at the top of tournament after tournament, but you cannot tell them they have to win any specific hand of poker. They cannot control the cards. Over time, playing the odds they will be successful, but you can't assume anything on any individual hand before the cards are dealt. The criticism of having Glennon and Trubisky is also based in the same outlook. It assumes that anyone could know with certainty how either of them will be. No one does. What Pace is doing is taking calculated risks at the position. If he thought, for example, that there was a 30% chance that Trubisky could be Peyton Manning, then the price he paid wasn't too high at all. That doesn't mean that he KNOWS Trubisky will be, or that if Trubisky isn't that good that Pace should get fired. Sure owners with control fantasies may fire guys for misses, but smart ones (and Im not saying we have any smart owners, Im speaking to the people here) will look at the overall plan and judge THAT. In other words, let's say you're the GM of the Bears. Let's say a fairy came down and magically had foresight to tell you that if you choose 3 QBs in the next 6 years, and paid a total of 1x 1st, 1x 2nd, 4 x3rd round picks, plus free agent money but that one of them would turn out to be Peyton Manning, would you do it? Cuz if you just did the safe thing, you could trade down every year, add more middle players to the defense and special teams coverage and never get that guy at QB. That's not what Pace is doing. He is not telling you he knows how Trubisky or Glennon will be. He is spending value on high upside guys at the position until he knows he has one. Imagine hypothetically that Glennon turns out to be amazing, a top 3 QB, and Trubisky never develops, Youre mad at Pace then? Our odds of having good QB play are very high now, although I cannont say which one (or both) will be the guy. That's realistic. Keep in mind he did all this without spending any extra first or second round picks. Pretty good Pace. I see you.

OK but the idea is that other teams were offering trades to SF, not that SF was going to take Trubisky.

Right! There ARE no sure things. You gotta keep taking educated shots until one pays off. Thats all this is.

This is how everyone will see it, but the truth is probably more like if you see a guy who has a 40% chance to be a Franchise QB, is he worth your first round pick, a 3rd and a 4th and a future 3rd? I think the answer is yes. You dont ever get a franchise QB unless you take a shot at some, and I think we paid the appropriate price for a shot at one. People will write that Pace had to KNOW, but in truth, he doesnt KNOW, no one can, he's making a gamble, and if he tries enough times, one of them will end up hitting, and then you have a franchise QB. If there was a a GM who could predict the future wed know it, so no matter what the sportwriters say, what you have is Pace making the right bet on a pair of jacks. If he makes the right bets enough times, we will have a good team. But he didnt give up any future #1s, he didnt even spend a #2. THis was a good bet, and has a decent chance of paying off. The rest of this boom bust stuff whether Pace or Lynch KNEW is just for the papers. It's not real.

I agree with both. Also to those who say we spent too much, we didnt spend a 1st or a 2nd, look what KC spent to move to get Mahomes, a 3rd and next years first! We didnt get robbed, we paid a fair price, and we may now have a QB for the future.

OK there goes Ramczyk. I dunno enough about the Alabama OT. I guess anything but QB, RB, OG is possible. BPA. Trade down maybe.

Yes. That's correct!

I think Ramczyk is the pick if he's there. Otherwise, it's hard to say. We don't have the 3rd rounder now, so if we have a sleeper, we might reach for him. Could be DB, TE, WR even DL

LOL Jason, dude youre on the record, your bet on Trubisky is "no" right?

Jason if Glennon and Trubisky are both good, then we can make a fortune trading one of them. The money wouldnt be wasted, it would be converted into future draft choices, like what the Cubs did for a few years building this young talented team.

1. Clearly there was another suitor for the Niner's 2nd pick. I think the Browns are the most likely, who else had enough ammunition to make us pay two thirds and a fourth? But they were at 12, and we were at 3, so SF went with us. 2. 2 3rds and a 4th isnt THAT high a price to get a franchise QB. 3. Even if you think there is a 35% chance that Trubisky can be a Super Bowl winning QB someday, the price of swinging the bat on that is pretty high sure to market scarcity. 4. Our guys have to really believe in Trubisky! 5. If Trubisky plays well, we have Glennon to trade, who was highly desired this year, and now you dont even have to pay him a signing bonus, so all that value gets converted into draft picks for us. We may get more than we gave for Trubisky back. If that happens, then Pace was smart not to get suckered in Free Agency just because he has a bunch of cap room, and instead converted 2017 cap dollars into 2018 draft picks. Thats like what the Cubs did while they were building too. 6. Yes Pace is on the line with this choice, if our QB play isnt great in the next couple years, then he is done. But he didnt act out of fear, he swung hard, and I hope he hits it out of the park. There are a lot of good reasons to believe in Trubisky, and that's exciting. 6. Between Glennon and Trubisky the odds are pretty high we are going to have a good QB. That is worth a lot too.

Clearly the Browns were on the phone with the Niners, and set the price. This means that we really liked Trubisky, and the scarcity in the market of top quality QBs, or even people that have a CHANCE of being one drives the price here. Remember we bid for Mariotta and Goff too, and failed, so this was Pace's shot I think. We can debate the cost, but with Glennon and Trubisky, we are going to have a QB pretty soon one way or another. And that has a lot of value too. Also, Glennon was courted by multiple teams at a pretty good price. If Trubisky plays well, We have Glennon's contract for 2 years to sell to a team who wouldnt owe him much at ALL, so all that value would be in draft picks to us, and any team, especially one in cap hell could bid. This could be very shrewd indeed.

TRUBISKY!!! WOW! OK well there ya go. They paid the price they must believe in him. This will be Pace's guy forever.

we paid next year's third, and this years 3rd AND 4th! better be an impact player. Pace this is your guy. This is your legacy.

WOW TRADE!!!!

True, that's how we and the press would treat him, but I dont see him as one to act out of fear. I think hes going to do what he thinks is right based on the information he has now. I dont think he will hedge picks to be defensive about how it could look for him etc. I think hes got his philosophies and hes going to play the draft the best way he can based on his scouts information and what his core beliefs are.

That's encouraging! I'm sure Pace & Co. are taking a long look at it, especially since they went after him last year! I hope it turns out to be good for us!

If he isn't diminished as a result of the injury then sure, but there's a reason they let him go too. Maybe the medical outlook isn't good. But yeah, every team in the league could use another good young DL.

yeah that would be insanely great, but I think the more likely scenario, if it happened at all, would be more lower picks this year, that we could package to move back into the 1st round. But yeah wow. Thatd be great for us, not so great for cleveland!

Exactly.

Pressure makes diamonds. And flattens frogs on the highway.

If this is posturing, it's to try to get someone to trade with us, someone who wants Watson a little later and is afraid we might take him. Someone who maybe has a pick around say 12 who could overreact in 2 ways to our benefit, either: 1) trading their 12th pick for our 3rd to take him OR 2) Taking him #1 overall to avoid us taking him before they pick again at #12, ensuring that Garrett falls out of the #1 spot. I would say this means we are less likely to take Watson at #3, if it means ANYTHING at all LOL