BearFan PHX
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Posts posted by BearFan PHX
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5 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
I think Poles is on schedule.
yes, or even ahead of the chains
I think we know we need a few more players in the trenches, and a season of growing for Caleb. All of those things will be accomplished by opening day next year, and i dont think we are scheduled to lose anyone important next year. So I figure we are truly super bowl contenders next year, and who can say what this year will be? Learning and growing for sure, but I wouldnt put a ceiling on this roster this year, but this is the year for growing pains and to come together. -
We have a top notch secondary and coverage linebackers, but it comes down to pressure from the D line. I hope we see some without having to blitz. If Dexter and Booker start to go off, we are on our way. If not, then Poles is right that this is stage two of a three stage rebuild.
I cant wait for Sunday. -
It's an interesting read, but it also sounds like some regurgitation of old debunked narratives about Caleb not throwing in rhythm. We've seen him do it in college and in preseason. Obviously pocket passing in the NFL is a skill every rookie QB has to get better at, and Caleb does too, but he's not any more challenged at that than any other rookie. Even less so in my opinion.
I do hear them saying that we need more pass rush on the defensive line, and we have some names, but we need to see it from Dexter, Williams, Booker, Walker and Taylor.
We have a talented but raw and newly former roster and coaching staff. I can't wait to see what team develops from these ingredients. Trying to guess where they might end up in the division is difficult. They do have the talent now to be a top 5 team, but they will need time to develop and gel - how much time is the question, and how bad do they want it.
This is a fantastic situation, but 7 wins is possible and so is 12 - and I think the Bears set of realistic outcomes this year is probably more spread out than any other team in recent memory. If they want to fight for it, they can have it. -
2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
cool, here's a link where everyone (including me) can read it.
https://archive.is/RNTjp -
56 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
I read an article in The Atlantic a few minutes ago that refocused my eyes. It was a comprehensive write up of our entire roster, with player evaluations, opponents and record projections from execs and scouts throughout the league. The results are mixed, but the consensus has us going 8-9 and finishing third in the division. They argued the why of it and delivered. They also say we are definitely on the rise. It was a great piece. If anyone can attach it, that would be great. Buckle up boys!
if you put the (unreadable) link here, I can probably hack it so everyone can read it.
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2 hours ago, adam said:
Titans Message Boards are hilarious.
https://www.titansreport.com/topic/47869-week-1-titans-vs-bears-discussion/
Here are some nuggets from this 26 page thread:
They spend 20+ pages infighting about Caleb Williams and then it starts a personal war between a few posters. 90% of the posts are personal attacks against each other. However, when they did post. It was basically Williams is overrated and Levis is amazing. One of the best ones is the guy who said the Bears were the worst team in the NFL last year because they drafted #1. That is all you need to know about the competency level of their fanbase. Clueless.
ha! hilarious!
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4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
Great analogy. They were on the rise and didn't have the confidence. If Caleb inspires confidence, the defense would definitely feed off of that. Take the Chiefs as an example. They can make mistakes on both sides of the ball and always play instinctually because Mahommes/Kelce/Reed gives them the confidence. That's the reason I believe we are a year from the window.
thats how I see it too, although I wouldnt be 100% comfortable predicting where the team will be in December. If they gel, they might be like year 2 in December.
But i also think there is a moment where you learn that you need to dig deep within yourself and find things you never knew you had.
MJ had a great shooting percentage, but it was even higher on important shots that determined games, and even higher than that on important shots that win playoff games or championships. That hard to define magic where you actually play better than even your own ability when it matters.
I hope to see us have some gut check moments like that this year, and decide exactly how hungry we really are. -
38 minutes ago, adam said:
Odunze is the wild card for me. If Allen is replacing Mooney, Odunze is replacing Claypool, which is some crazy upgrades.
I also did not recall that Roschon had the 4th most targets last year behind Moore, Kmet, and Mooney. He had more than TE2 and WR3. Now that is Everett and Odunze with Swift ahead of him.
If all QBs combined can throw for 3400 yards and opponents can throw for 4200 on the Bears defense, I still don't see why Williams is not throwing for 3800+ with his eyes closed?
he definitely ought to look good, even if he throws some interceptions etc.
I guess the wild card is the running game. If we have good success on the ground, we might not be asking Caleb to throw that much, and that could limit his yardage totals. But with 3 solid WRs, and TEs and RBs that can catch, when he does throw, everything is in place for him to do well.
I do expect Caleb to get over 4,000 soon - this season or next. -
12 minutes ago, adam said:
It might be on Hard Knocks. I couldn't find any totals. I was just being sarcastic about Davis and his one injured vote for himself.
hahahaha well its damned funny! And you got me I believed it!
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15 minutes ago, adam said:
Absolutely. This team is going to go wherever Caleb takes them. If he has a "normal" rookie year, we will probably end up with 7-9 wins. If he has a year that many expect him to have (just based on historical trends), the Bears should win 10+.
I just found it interesting that the Bears were 11th (higher than expected) and had the biggest DVOA jump that I could find (ever). This year's team should be better, if not as good as that team was but for an entire year. The 11th best team is a 10 win team, which tracks with pretty much all other metrics, SoS, WAR, AV, PFF, etc.
I like that kinda party!
I agree with all of this. I was thinking, off the top of my head, that we should be able to routinely beat the 16 worst teams in the league, which means we are probably 12th, but really heading higher, because the 12th best teams doesnt "routinely" beat the 17th best team.
I'd say we are around 12th-ish, heading into the top 10 maybe even top 5. But we will find those top 5 teams are on another level, and while our roster probably matches up with them, we will need to learn how much desire and will we have for winning when we meet those teams. I always think thats the last lesson you need to learn before you are truly competing.
I think of the 1984 Bears getting easily handled by the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. They already had a magical roster, but they didn't know how deep they were going to have to dig yet. That's our ceiling right now I think. I dont want to contemplate our floor, but assuming we play our cards well, it's still 8+ wins. -
is there a link to where I can see the vote totals? That would be interesting.
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23 minutes ago, adam said:
So the Bears ended up as the 22nd-best team for Total DVOA for the season. However, they finished 11th in Weighted DVOA (games later in the season have more value) which was somewhat surprising to me.
26 teams remained within 4 spots +/- when comparing season DVOA and Weighted DVOA. That leaves 6 teams that moved more than normal, 2 teams jumped up 11, and 4 teams dropped between 5 and 7 spots:
1. CHI +11 (+13.8)
2. LVR +11 (+12.7)
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29. CLE -5
30. HOU -6
31. JAX -7
32. PHI -7So a few things. I am not giving CHI or LVR enough credit for last year's last season surge and I am probably giving HOU, JAX, and PHI too much credit when they benefitted greatly from hot starts. PHI for example, ended the season 21st in Weighted DVOA. That projects for them to have a losing record this year. Going off Weighted DVOA, this is how the season projects for these 6 teams:
CHI 11-6
LVR 10-7
CLE 9-8
HOU 8-9
JAX 8-9
PHI 7-10Obviously, more data goes into outcomes, but it is nice to see the Bears projections matching up across multiple data sets whereas a team like PHI is all over the map.
all these cool stats are fun to read - I do truly enjoy them. Thank you for sharing all this work.
I'm sure you also agree their value in specific predictions is severely limited, I mean, we have a new QB! But all the same, when a clear trend line is pointing unmistakably upward, you can at least take that data point as a sign to expect improvement. -
16 minutes ago, Pixote said:
Are you serious? He received a vote??? Are players allowed to vote for themselves? 😉
well they couldnt count the vote because it was injured.
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1 minute ago, Stinger226 said:
Doesnt the players pick the captains?
yes they do of course
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QB Caleb Williams
WR DJ Moore
TE Cole Kmet
TE Marcedes Lewis
LB T.J. Edwards
LB Tremaine Edmunds
CB Jaylon Johnson
S Kevin Byard
Good list - makes sense.
The reason Im even posting is to comment on Mercedes Lewis being in there. At 40 years old, he still has some use in the red zone where he doesnt have to run 40 yards, and he is a good blocker. But there is a reason beyond those few snaps that we kept him and lost Bates to develop, and that he is a captain, even as a third string player.
When Cole Kmet was asked who was the leader in the locker room, he said "Mercedes Lewis" - I dont know if his inspiration is strongly tied to his work ethic in weight room, but if it is as I suspect a mental thing - the long experience and character that inspires and leads guys, then I just want to put it out there that maybe we should hire him as a coach next year - maybe offensive quality control or something to start?
Then we could keep him and his leadership around for quite a while with no cap price (obviously). -
2 hours ago, adam said:
Yeah, it definitely needs to have context.
I was trying to find any real comps to the Bears after seeing the high grades and the only two teams even remotely close were the 2020 Pats (highest OVR PFF Grade) and 2022 Dolphins (led league for OVR, OFF, and DEF).
So if you compare NE's 2020 preseason to the Bears this year:
The Bears opponents' combined record from 2023 was 41-27 with the worst team being the 9-8 Bengals.
The Patriots opponents' combined record from 2020 was 17-30-1 with the best team being the 7-9 Division Winning Commanders.
So in reality, that was a solid Pats team punching down on weak teams (even if it is subs and bottom 53 dudes). So the Bears preseason looks even better.
Then when you compare to MIA in 2022, Miami went 2-1 in the preseason, not 4-0.
So I think we just witnessed the most dominant preseason in NFL history and didn't even know it.
I think what it says mostly is that the depth on our roster is legit.
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3 hours ago, adam said:
I was going thru some stats and just came across the fact that the Bears were the highest-rated team in the preseason (per PFF) with an OVR grade of 89.5 (2nd highest preseason grade in PFF history). JAX was 2nd with 88.0 and DEN was the only other team over 80 with a 81.1
The Bears also had the #1 graded offense AND #1 graded defense. The defense was so good that they cleared the next best team (NYJ) by almost 5pts.
I know it is only preseason, but I did find some correlation between Preseason PFF grades and regular-season success.
Last season, the top 5 graded defenses in the preseason were: GB, TB, DET, HOU, and IND/BUF tied for 5th. All teams had a winning record and only IND missed the playoffs. For overall grades, the top 5 teams were LVR, GB, TB, KC, and BUF. LVR was the worst at 8-9. GB and TB were the only teams to be in the top 5 overall, in offense and defense, and both teams made the playoffs.
The Bears are the only team in the PFF era to lead the NFL overall, in offense and defense with all grades over 80.0. The only other team to lead the league across all categories were the 2022 Dolphins (9-8 and made the playoffs) but they had a defensive grade of 75.4 that year.
Circling back, the highest OVR PFF Grade for a preseason was the 2021 Patriots (89.7), so the Bears were 0.2 shy of that mark. The Patriots were 10-7 that season.
I know people take PFF with a grain of salt, but it does look like when you take in the macro view, there is some correlation there.
I have more faith in PFF stats like these that start from hard numbers like points, yards, QB ratings etc. than I do when they grade performances themselves, like Offensive linemen etc.
And of course all stats are lies without context, but its a good sign to see the Bears stats trending upward and better than the alternative. -
1 minute ago, adam said:
I think the Bears record will be another factor. The Bears will have 8 games in the books before the trade deadline (NOV 5th). If they are 6-2 (which is very possible), I think they will acquire either a DT or Edge to help with the playoff push, even if Booker and Dexter are holding their own.
TEN, IND, CAR, WAS, and ARZ should be wins. Then it's HOU, LAR, and JAX in the other 3. LAR and JAX are at home. Win one of those three and the Bears are 6-2. Interestingly enough, the Bears are favored in 5 games currently, and dogs in 3 (HOU, IND, and JAX). IND and JAX are by 1 pt and HOU by 3.5.
for sure. if they are making a playoff run this year, that makes upgrading at the trade deadline more appealing than waiting for the draft. If we are 4-4, then maybe you dont need to jump in at that point.
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I think everyone is right that the pass rush is the difference between 5th and 10th, and i also think that if Booker doesnt come on by the trade deadline, we might be looking at a trade for someone superior. I dont know who that would be, but I didnt see Sweat on the radar either.
If on the other hand Booker and Dexter make big steps, who knows where we might be?
I was encouraged to hear poles say this was the second phase of roster building, and infer that there is a third phase yet to come. Seems we finally have a GM that knows what he's doing. -
2 minutes ago, adam said:
The Bears would have to go 7-10 or worse for Flus to be fired. At that point, something else went horribly wrong, not necessarily something to do with his coaching.
I expect success for this team, and for Eberflus to get his share of the credit.
but if, for example (and I am NOT predicting this) he loses multiple games for us by going too safe too early like he has in the past, then he would be in trouble.
I do also worry about having a defensively oriented head coach which means if the offense takes off, we lose Waldron.
But it is too late to do anything about all of that, and if we perform like expected, Flus is more likely to win coach of the year than to be fired.
But he has made a bunch of bad decisions in the past. I assume the new staff will keep him on the right track, and he also seems to have grown himself as well. Cool. -
I didnt like Flus, but Ive come around. I think he has changed too.
I think the last two years he was more soft, and forgiving. To give him the benefit of the doubt, I might say he knew his roster wasnt very good so he wasnt trying to burn guys out when he knew we had no chance. He seemed to be enjoying his title, but not really pushing for greatness.
Now this year he knows his butt is on the line. He also has the roster to win, and he knows that too. I have written before about how he seems more dialed in, and in footage Ive seen, more intense. -
5 minutes ago, Pixote said:
Bearswire.usatoday.com reported updates to our practice squad.
Bears' 16-player practice squad
- LB Micah Baskerville
- OL Theo Benedet
- TE Stephen Carlson
- DL Byron Cowart
- OL Jake Curhan
- LS Scott Daly
- OL Chris Glase
- WR Collin Johnson
- LB Carl Jones Jr.
- DL Jamree Kromah
- DB Tarvarius Moore
- QB Austin Reed
- DT Sam Roberts
- CB Reddy Steward
- DB Ro Torrence
- WR Samori Toure
Thanks for posting that.
I'm especially glad to see Curhan made it through waivers. If Braxton goes down and Kiran isnt ready, having him as an option is a huge difference. But it is one that will mean less in December than it does right now, so practice squad is good. Ditto in some ways for Reed as the emergency 3rd QB, and Daly for Scales.
Also glad to see Micah Baskerville, Collin Johnson, Carl Jones Jr and Reddy Stewart stuck around for us to develop them. -
16 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
Spy games...
mm hmm
Week 1 Official Game Thread - TEN @ CHI, 9/8, 12PM CDT, CHI -4.5 O/U 43.5, FOX
in Bearstalk
Posted
we need pass pressure, and to read the screens well. If we do that, it's an easy win.
This team seems pretty good against the run.
I'm also worried about running on their DTs - it'll be a good test for our interior OL.