BearFan PHX
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sounds really good. glad to hear Bates get called out for doing well too in the run game.
I do think in the past, young QBs like Trubisky and Fields were at a disadvantage because they only got really strong defense to learn against in games. Williams ought to benefit a lot from our current roster, and it's good to hear they are throwing a lot of different fronts at him and the OL. -
4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
Carmen and Jurko had the stats. It's midway through the Thursday show, if you want to listen on the app.
thank you
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2 hours ago, AZ54 said:
Pressure does funny things to people. It is especially hard to take over an organization and turn it around. It's even more awkward when you have to deal with people who you know are not up to the task. Sure Flus hired Getsy and Williams but we'll never know how far down the list they were amng the coaches he wanted. We do know it took quite a bit of time to assemble that staff. He's been around the league a long time too so he knows a lot of coaches.
Of course he fired both so he saw it, knew it. I'm pretty sure he knew it with Getsy in year 1 when he forced him to revise the offense and they came out against NE and won the game with Fields running. It was easier to fire Williams and Flus to take over that role but there were no good options for that on offense.
For sure. Thats why I was saying earlier that part of his transformation might be the roster he has fighting for him now, and you're right that goes to his staff too.
Being the captain of a ghost ship while you cut or trade all your old players, and before the new crew is assembled is a tough task for sure. You stand there, and go through it, but you know you suck. That's hard. Then when they tell you that they know it wasnt your fault, but heres finally a good group of players and you pretty much have to do something pretty good with them right now or those crap seasons are gonna count as a pattern can wake you up pretty fast.
You want your dream? Fine here it is. And you basically get one chance to make it work. You have to be mentally tough and fight, even as you are confident and think there is a good chance youre gonna make it work and even win coach of the year!
What a funny business.
2 hours ago, AZ54 said:All that responsibility still lands on his shoulders and Flus knew Poles could have easily justified firing him. Under that pressure is where you see people sometimes start doing things they otherwise wouldn't do to try and get a spark and win a game. Remember Matt Nagy and his "cute" plays that got out of hand. In the end I think it was the defensive turnaround that saved Flus. To be fair, the offense did improve as well in the 2nd half once Flus had better command of the D.
Youre totally right. When your team sucks, you take risks, and that makes you look bad. Winning, and losing, are contagious and affect every part of the team.
Adding Sweat sure did get us past some threshold were everything started to get better.
2 hours ago, AZ54 said:You get a huge boost in confidence when your boss tells you I understand it wasn't you and you are building this thing in the right direction. We'll see how it plays out but roster talent and coaching talent are no longer issues he has to work around. That frees up his mind to focus more on the head coaching job. He still has a young QB and after the Fields/Getsy experience I expect he'll make sure to be around Caleb/Waldron early on to make sure things are going in the right direction. On the defensive side he kept Jon Hoke to help as defensive passing game coordinator and Washington seems better able to handle the Dline and run defense setup. He kept Hightower for continuity on special teams.
I agree with almost all of this, except the first sentence. I doubt they told him the past few seasons werent his "fault" - I can imagine them saying "we know its tough but you have to find a way" and that does somewhat acknowledge the situation. But if the team under performs this year, everyone knows that suddenly the past two years will be added to the data to justify a pattern.
Kind of like how Justin's first two years were also excused, and had he been great last year, everyone would have said "yeah those first two years werent his fault" but since he didnt, then it became like a consistent three year narrative. Not saying thats fair, just how people think.
I think Flus knows he could be coach of the year this year, or end up fired at the end of the season. Either are possible, and so he's not screwing around anymore being goofy and happy go lucky. He looks hungry, and dialed in. And that's great.
Personally i think it will be hard to really fail that badly this year, so Flus is more likely a COY than fired. I see us winning 9 to 11 games, and making the playoffs. From there Im not sure. This team will be a lot more gelled and experienced in December. The talent ont he roster is undeniable now, but the chemistry, and identity have to be forged.
If I had to bet, Id take the upside, and thats gonna bring Eberflus along for the ride. Hopefully he is leading, and not just riding the wave. -
2 hours ago, adam said:
Nowadays it is so hard to determine if "coaching matters". These guys are professionals, can the Head Coach, who is just overseeing the entire operation, actually making a huge impact? I don't think so. 20 years ago, for sure. Now, not so much.
Hard Knocks is going to be really telling. If he is boring as hell and his speeches sound dumb, then you will have your answer.
in the middle, I agree with you. But in the margins, a bad coach can mess you up. Eberflus lost us a few games with just the decisions he made, being too safe too early on defense with big leads, and occasionally being too aggressive or tricky on 4th down. But I think by now Eberflus is a middle coach, not saying he will continue to screw us like he did at all.
To me the question is what about those few coaches that give you an active edge is winning? When you look at those EPA charts from the other day for example, KC doesnt leap out last year at all. They were good but their output wasnt stunning. But just like there is a difference between getting guys on base, and getting them home, so does a great coach put the production you do have into the best moments to win games, especially big games.
I've heard coaches say that the first 3 quarters of the game just set the stage for the real game in the 4th quarter. That they have been calling plays or formations to read what the opponent will do that day in certain situations, and havent yet run their most successful variants off of that, saving them for the 4th quarter when they matter.
That implies that coaching, or at least good coordinator playcalling is at work, and matters.
So yeah, most coaches around the league are professionals, but not geniuses. I guess i put Eberflus into that category. So he wont harm us, but will he give us an active edge in winning? I dont think so in the same way I feel like Waldron will.
Defensive playcalling is also a lot less complicated than offensive playcalling. So if youre gonna have a mad genius head coach, they probably will be offensive minded. Belichick was a defensive coordinator, but i think he was also plenty offensive minded.
Also, if youre gonna lose coordinators, better to have offensive continuity too.
But we are here and I am glad to see Eberflus growing. I think there is enough on this staff to put together good football gameplans and strategies, but I wonder if Eberflus has that thing?
And to be fair its not like you can go out and get a 50 year old Andy Reed either. So Eberflus may be a good choice out of the options there are out there. (cough Harbaugh lol) -
5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
My biggest encouragement for Flus is Poles believes in him. I trust Poles to get it right. A lot of mistakes last year on the offense, I blame to Flus allowing Getsy to control the situation. Another problem was breakdown by selected players at critical times. center was simply terrible and injury breakdowns of the OL. Bad play calling created a mediorcre offence. As much as as I loved Justin, his bad decisions added to it.
If you're making soup and one turns out better than the other its because of better ingrediants. We have better ingrediants.
all good stuff. Im just giving credit where it is due that Eberflus looks more dialed in this year finally. Im sure youre right that it is because of many reasons including roster confidence, but he has also grown personally I believe.
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Heres a season by season chart for offensive and defensive EPA.
https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/nfl-epa-tiers/
Did you find one that does five years at the same time? -
I think I have been the most vocal critic of Matt Eberflus on this board? Probably so.
And I have some observations to make about the last month or two.
My two main criticisms of him have been that he has made stupid strategic game decisions, and that he seemed to lack an alpha leadership quality, at least where I was able to see him on TV, in interviews etc.
I can't say much about the first one, since we aren't playing games, but I'm hopeful that any of that gets put in check by more assertive coordinators keeping him from going too safe. A better roster should also make him more comfortable to take risks. And perhaps coordinators will dial him back from going too far the other way too. I'm not that concerned about it, and if I see more of it in games, then Ill get back to it then. Hopefully he has learned too.
But the other part, his body language, is why I'm writing this.
I'm looking forward to seeing him on hard knocks and in press conferences etc this year. But I did already see him greeting new players when they reported, and in the draft room where he still seemed small to me. He felt like the uncomfortable kid at the dance in the draft room. I like his new look, but he seemed almost shy or something somehow.
But I said in an earlier post, that maybe he just isn't that comfortable in settings where his authoritative role isnt that defined, and where he isnt sure of what to do in every step like he is on the practice field.
So all this setup and background to say, I am seeing a serious difference in him in practice footage and especially in the press conference today. He seemed more dialed in, less goofy than last year, kind of angry in a good way. He was leaning forward toward the press, not shifting his weight, like he was in a fight for his life, and on the cusp of losing, but then some friends showed up and had his back. Newly confident, but still taking it very seriously.
I'm guessing that he loved being a head coach the last couple years, almost like it was fun, or he was a tourist, but this year he now knows it can all go away forever in just one more bad season. So he seems dialed in. And he also seems like in this fight, he knows he has a roster now and he might well be able to kick this thing in the ass and take it all the way to a Super Bowl in the next few years. He feels intense and concerned. Finally.
It's really great to see. If it continues, and the coaching mistakes go away, then Poles did yet another great job seeing past the obvious. To my eye, this would be as crazy as when they drafted Dexter to be a 3T instead of a NT, with the big doughy slow get off. But Poles saw whet he could become. And then Dexter shows up ripped and fast this year. Maybe that's Eberflus too now.
We may someday need a bronze statue of Ryan Poles outside Soldier Field.
So from his biggest critic here, I see something changing in Eberflus, and it's great to see. -
2 hours ago, Pixote said:
I've been reading some articles by some naysayers who question the positive outlook many of us have for the Bears offense in 2024. After all, we got a new OC to replace the dumbass we had last year. We added dynamic skill players to our offense. So why are they so negative? Do they dislike the Bears? So, I did some fact-checking.
Last year, the Bears offense ranked #18 in points scored (360). Where did Seattle rank? They were #17 (364). I know we have a dynamic set of skill players, but we also have a rookie quarterback. Geno Smith, Metcalf, & Lockett are certainly a good set of players. So should we be concerned that they, with our new OC, were basically tied with us as middle-of-the-road offenses when viewed by points scored? After all, KC was #15 (371), and they won the SB AGAIN.
So I checked the time of possession, another point of concern by some of the naysayers.
I was surprised that the Bears were second in TOP (31.58 min p/g avg), only behind Cleveland (32.19). KC was 14th (30.28), and Seattle, with our OC in charge, was dead last (26.39).
The naysayers point out that we may rack up more receiving years, but that will be offset by a drop in production from our running offense, which in turn will drop our time of possession, which was fueled last year by our rushing offense. (And Seattle's TOP was terrible the past two years because of a more aggressive passing game.)
So, is this a reason for concern? Looking at KC's rankings, maybe points scored and TOP rankings are overrated? There are obviously other factors involved.
Maybe it's a good thing we drafted a punter. LOL
well it IS a good thing we drafted a punter in any case! LOL
I would say that you showed with KC there, that those stats, in a vacuum, don't really tell the story. KC won 11 games, and lost 6, but the won the right games, and they know how to win as a team. They know when they need points, and they know how to score when they need to - that elusive trait that all the winners have. Put the ball in their hands down 6 with 2 minutes left, and you figure they are going to score and win. This is also where stats for Fields didn't tell the full story too, for example.
I think this is going to come down to what Caleb Williams becomes in the NFL, and how his supporting cast can make that more likely. And for that reason and our new additions, I cant take much from last years stats except to say that if we were already in the middle of the pack then, i expect us to be pretty high up there by the end of the season. At least if you only count the last 8 games, for example.
I cant wait to see where this roster starts, and how they grow from there!
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I totally understand why Caleb didnt want an agent - the rookie deal is basically set so nothing to negotiate. But then to let your team try to reinvent the entire league is really wrong. Not only is it a wrong idea, but to bring it from non agents is ridiculous.
I am glad that Caleb said the circus could continue right up to the last minute but no further and not miss a day. Thats fine. But if hed held out even a few days on this crap that would have been a really bad sign.
But he didnt, and hes in camp. Cool. Lets go! -
50 minutes ago, Pixote said:
I really think they should consider doubling the cap, expanding the roster to 80 players, and playing a 24-game schedule. ?
This long off-season is killing me!
LOL its killing all of us!
For the longest time the offseason was the best part of the year for us. We would get a new player or two and hope that we would field a competitive team. The best we did in a while was that Urlacher / Grossman team, and they werent really a great team. We lucked into the superbowl, and got taught a lesson in our second class status by Payton Manning, who we had no chance of beating even after Hester gave us a free 7 point advantage.
Now, finally, we have a roster. I dont know if it will be this year, but it could be - but soon this group of names is going to be among the best teams in the NFL.
All this to say, the regular season will finally be the best part of the year for our time, and I cant wait either.
Lets go! -
1 hour ago, adam said:
What's funny is I keep thinking that Caleb may have a different problem, too many guys are open, lol.
lol good problem to have
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OK, here's some BS. Caleb's team, who are not NFL agents, trying to be creative and do something(s) that had never been done before, make a name for themselves, and start a player repping business, tried several creative strategies for laundering money tax free in addition to trying to vacate the franchise tag.
Poles showed them that Williams might be a #1 pick, but he is the MFing GM of the Chicago Bears and no franchise protection was offered.
In addition Poles played it VERY smart to ask the league about the other ideas, which the league immediately shot down. So Poles isn't the bad guy, the league is. Well played sir.
But most of all, hit the road lawyer type agent wannabes. The answer is no, and Caleb will sign anyway. And he did.
Someday he may have us over a barrel and insist on big money and voidable years, franchise tag protections and the like, but he has to win some big games first, and at least one superbowl to earn the franchise protection clout.
If he's smart, he will take the Brady path and leave money on the table for players around him. But who can say.
What I can say is Ryan Poles has giant brass balls, and Caleb's team went to bed without supper. As they should for this nonsense.
As for Caleb, he took it right up to the last minute but no further. I can respect his competitiveness. Had he missed even a day of rookie practice, then he'd have crossed the line too, but he didn't. Let's hope he is similarly greedy and pushy on the field against the Packers.
https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/nfl/chicago-bears/bears-news/caleb-williams-team-made-oddball-out-of-the-box-requests-for-his-rookie-contract-report/577714/ -
it's an embarrassment of riches. One WR may get 1,000 because of how coverages end up etc, but it would come at the expense of the others, as you guys have mentioned, there are a lot of mouths to feed. Barring a WR injury, I think Caleb's stats look better than any of the WRs on paper, but if you look at how they get each other open, it should be amazing. Too bad there is no assist stat for complementary routes.
With such problems for defenses to cover, we might be really formidable this year in terms of points, even as Caleb is still learning. I dont want to drink too much kool aid, it is still the first season for a lot of them and Waldron, but if things go right, I wouldnt put a ceiling on this team. The superbowl window may not be wide open, but it's certainly cracked and letting some air in.
And if C and DE2 work out, then this roster will be the one to win a superbowl, in whatever year in the next 3. -
lets go!
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1 hour ago, adam said:
Now Florio is saying that Williams didn't sign as they are haggling over the franchise tag after his 5th year. I don't know how that is possible if he practiced yesterday?
so weird. and I don't think players have the right to put in any language about franchise tagging anyway? Otherwise wouldnt someone else have already done this?
EDIT - so apparently it is possible.
https://www.profootballrumors.com/2024/07/caleb-williams-aimed-to-secure-no-franchise-tag-clause-in-bears-rookie-deal -
8 minutes ago, AZ54 said:
The Bears did right by waiting on Conner Williams. He's had another month to not just heal the knee but gain strength. Now they have the full training staff in place and it's easy to bring him in for a thorough eval.
There is no DE available who will dramatically change the roster, they'll just be expensive depth pieces on a 1yr rental. I'm not happy with Nate Davis so far this offseason. Williams, if healthy, presents a chance to give Caleb an elite Center for the next 4 seasons. We have the money now if we choose and can sort out the oline future next season but unless there is a dramatic turnaround Davis isn't likely in the picture for 2025. Even if Davis did play well, assuming Jenkins does the same and is healthy I think the team would rather build around Jenkins who definitely is putting in the offseason work to get better. IMO Bates is a better Guard than Center and sitting between Williams and Wright he'd be fine. Translation for me: I'm holding onto my options with Williams as long as possible to validate his health. Then I decide.
absolutely the right way to play it, and having the training staff in place was an additional wrinkle I hadnt considered - good one.
I also worry about Davis, and wonder about Bates at G. I feel like that flexibility was always part of the plan, even if replacing Davis wasnt explicitly the first option, or never happens. Poles is stocking the room with talent, and hopefully they get the best 5 out there. -
2 minutes ago, AZ54 said:
As expected the contract chatter before camp was much ado about nothing. Yes, Phx you are correct all that contract 'ownership" stuff looks to have been nothing but noise and distraction. We'll see how the career and contracts go in the future but I'll forever wonder what Tom Brady told Caleb when they were talking over the summer. Many players make their money off playing (i.e. the contract). Brady was never focused on being the highest paid, he was focused on making his money off winning, and still is earning big money off that. You need to believe in yourself to make that happen...
https://sports.yahoo.com/tom-brady-retires-record-475-180432340.html
Brady repeatedly signed below-market deals with New England to help its roster-building under the cap, but he still retires with a record $293 million in playing salary and bonuses.
Sportico estimates Brady earned $180 million off the field over the past 22 years from endorsements, licensing, appearances and memorabilia. Taken all together, his career earnings are estimated at $475 million, which would rank No. 22 among athletes all-time, not adjusted for inflation, and is a record haul for an NFL player while active.
Oh I sure hope so. I always knew what Calebs position would be regarding his rookie contract, but i cant make any predictions about his second deal; when that will come, and how much he will ask for etc.
But there is a definite wisdom in leaving some money for players to catch the balls you throw, and championships mean more endorsements, and at some point when youre rich beyond measure, championships should mean more. I hope Caleb sees it that way when the time comes if he proves to be the QB we think he can be!
I hope he takes the Brady route and not the Rodgers route! -
19 minutes ago, Pixote said:
Being a bit starved for news, I searched for anything Bears-related to satisfy my hunger. I came across two "Meet the Rookies" videos—one for Rome Odunze and the other for Kiran Amegadjie. I must say, both were amazing. It will take time to discover the true extent of how their talent transitions from college to the NFL. However, one thing I am pretty sure of is that the players Poles has drafted are of exceptional character. They are intelligent, articulate, dedicated to their profession, and driven to be great. Poles has been an outstanding GM.
That said, I do wish he would add another Edge Rusher ?
As good as our DBs are, with no pressure on the opposing QB, eventually coverage will break down. If Sweat misses time, they are toast. Even with Sweat in the lineup, a complementary piece is needed.
totally agree with all of this.
Poles seems to be drafting high character guys, and he doesnt seem to have to be sacrificing anything in the talent department to do it, othert than maybe moving on past Jalen Carter. And with the way Wright played last year, it makes the point moot, because Wright is a monster.
I feel like Poles was actually trained under people and a system that understands how to do this, as opposed to some guy playing fantasy football and trying to put together a winner for each year with not enough to do it.
There seems to be a PLAN, and all the pieces are falling into place too. Good time to be a Bears fan. -
1 hour ago, Pixote said:
What was the date for the first Hard Knocks Bears? I forgot and am too lazy to go searching.
Found it, Tuesday, August 6
yeah I cant wait to watch it!
I think the cameras arrived at Halas Hall today, possibly yesterday, so this all makes sense.
I'm gonna be very interested to watch Eberflus' chemistry with the players. He sometimes feels to me like he is nervous, antsy or insecure, but thats in the social settings. It's possible that once the relationship turns to Xs and Os and specifically football things where his knowledge, experience and role is clear that he is more comfortable or alpha.
Maybe kind of like the player who is soft spoken and sweet in interviews and turns into a bloodthirsty monster only on the field.
I've hoped to see Eberflus more in his professional role, because the behind the scenes stuff made me mistrust his leadership, but when hes ont he practice field and yelling, I might see the side of him Ive been looking for that would make Poles' choice in him make more sense to me. It cant just be calling cover 3, anyone can do that, so Im hoping to see the side of him that i just havent had enough chance to see to bring me around. -
2 minutes ago, adam said:
Yeah, I think they are going to see how Bates/Shelton look, but they will have space to add someone, but I doubt they can afford 2x additions. So I assume it would be C or Edge, not both.
probably right, but i think when he was healthy Connor Williams was so much better than these two that if you think he's coming back to form, and the numbers work (to your point) then we would love to sign him. I just dont know when that would be, you dont want to pay big on a hope that he recovers.
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I guess they were waiting for the cameras, probably asked to by the league.
Both are signed. And Caleb didnt try to change the league after all. That was just narrative from before the draft because he didnt have a PR person countering anything so the stories went wild - probably from teams in the top 5 hoping to shake him loose.
Anyway the nonsense is over. We have successfully navigated cutting Fields and drafting and signing Caleb. Hopefully now the business of winning comes front and center.
And speaking of centers and fronts, I wouldnt be shocked to see us sign Connor WIlliams, another DE or both. -
Williams just signed too - so it was for the cameras. Good
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I had sort of thought they might sign together for the cameras.
It doesnt really mean anything until Saturday, so they still have some time, and I still believe this is not going to be an issue, but if we get past Saturday and he is still not signed, I'll worry then. -
1 hour ago, AZ54 said:
Well earned! If the standard is that you changed the way the game had to be played when you were on the field then nobody is more deserving. Can't wait for the ceremony.
^5 I do think that's a fine standard for inclusion.
Eberflus 2024
in Bearstalk
Posted
you dont need to be a head coach to knpw that going into a -prevent defense too early can cost you a game. We all know this.
We also know that taking the go ahead field goal late int he game is the right move rather than going for it on 4th down, and that giving the ball to the TE for a sneak is being too cute.
These were errors, and you dont need to be a head coach int he NFL before you can learn this.
But the past is the past, and we will see how things go this year and moving forward. Im not juding him now by those past mistakes, but neither do i think it's part of learning. They were just wrong, but its Ok to move on.