AZ54

Does anyone know a body language expert? Those hugs from Poles and especially with Eberflus seemed to me highly indifferent. I'm a little odd in that I look for things like smiles and eye contact, even if brief, to tell if someone is being genuine. I see Poles looking away and maybe just being "professional". Eberflus OTOH didn't look happy at all, more mechanical in his motions. Usually after that I'd expect very brief "something" of an interaction yet Caleb moved on quickly and so did the Bears. Maybe to Phx's point they are just going through a formality with the hugs and not trying to show any cards. I also suspect Phx can vouch there are people in business that can smile and look you in the eye while stabbing you in the back. Probably we've all worked with someone like that one time or another. So maybe this is nothing but people getting ready to go their separate ways. Then later in his interview with Colin Cowherd you still do not see any smile from Williams during any discussion of Chicago. At the 1min mark Cowherd says hey Chicago has some dudes what's it going to be like working with Keenan Allen. Williams first part of the response is IMO somewhat scripted (blessed to be #1 overall pick) but there's no smile when talking about Keenan until he begins discussing their friendship going back for years. At that time I feel like we're seeing the real Caleb. Then go to the 5min mark when Cowherd asks him again about going to Chicago where the fans "care". While he still asking the question Caleb rolls his eyes, then has to bite his lip twice before answering what his vision of playing in Chicago will be like. Again no smiles no immediate reaction just thought out words like he's reading a script. Regardless of the talent assessment it is still my opinion this guy does not want to play in Chicago... at this point in time. I'm not sure we want him either.

I haven't seen anyone refute that Williams has elite pocket awareness. Everything I've seen on numerous breakdowns is just wow, almost 6th sense of what is going on around him. I think he also has elite arm talent with some incredible off-platform throws. However, I also think, as with many elite athletes, that talent gets him into trouble where he gets lax with his mechanics and just reaches around pressure with an off-angle throw. That leads to him missing relatively easy throws at times. It's correctable with some work and he's got the foot quickness to reset. As Kurt Warner said today each of the top QBs needs work on their game if they are going to be an NFL starter. Which makes this a really tough decision.

In part is his big time injury history, but for me the other challenge with him is that he is mostly a line-of-site passer. That works great in many situations, and he's got a nice strong arm, but in games I watched he seemed to struggle when he has to drop the ball in over a defender.

We all have the same facts in the world, yet the world is composed of billions of different opinions. His is just one and he's welcome to it. This is actually why I read this board because people will force me to see things from a different perspective. Some change my mind, others do not. I'm not married to the need for someone to see things my way, I simply accept the differences and see how things play out. So sometimes they are wrong and sometimes I'm wrong, and maybe more often than not I'm wrong. Despite all that, it is still possible to support an argument without declaring a "flaw" in someone else just because you disagree.

open eyes, see football.

The average opinion here is that Williams is generational. I think I’m the only curmudgeon.

I don’t run their computers decisions.

Maybe this is the guy we want? Not the biggest arm but he's the most versatile when you add in his running ability. He's already reading defenses well in SEC (make Jason proud!). When I consider the ability to deal with adversity, ability to be team first he has it as you'll see in his interview.

What luck. I decide to go to PFN to play around with some mocks and trade back to #2. I've been doing this off and on for weeks. For the first time today I get this:

I don't recall saying anything about Caleb's top 30 visit, I don't even know if that's happened yet or not. I don't even know if it was setup with Chicago or was that just an internet rumor spread by someone to make him look bad in Chicago? Painted fingernails, which isn't a big deal IMO because I have a grandson who paints his fingernails, but the need to make that "something" on the internet before a big game is more bothersome for me. I don't have an issue getting in my grandson's face when he's focused on Tik Tok and "likes" so I don't have an issue saying the same about Caleb. Attention seeking and the celebrity stuff when you haven't really done anything is a concern for me. In this modern world that stuff is going to find you anyway, especially in the NFL, but what is it you're working for? Then when things go wrong, and they will, how do you handle that publicity in a big city? His interview at the combine didn't impress me at all. Others thought he was great, I think he's being evasive when he says "it doesn't matter how I feel". He skipped medicals at the combine because.... he's more "special" than everyone else? Does he really want to just be one of the guys on the team? One of the guys on the field during their testing? I don't know how Caleb has no control over his father, that's interesting. If my father went public saying stuff about me and what I want and I didn't like it I'd be telling him, and the public he doesn't speak for me. He has no agent so who do you think he's working with? If he has no agent who has been doing the negotiating for him on his TV commercials? If he's choosing to do all that by himself well then my question is how much focus is he putting on learning the game? I don't like the fact Maye skipped the combine either. If you want to be the first pick go compete! I don't like some of the inaccurate throws he makes within games and I don't like that sometimes he doesn't seem to "see the field". He also sometimes wanders in the pocket closer to pressure. I wasn't hot on either of these guys because I don't see an Andrew Luck type worth #1 overall but now I'm stuck and gotta pick one. The only thing I know is that out of almost every draft there is one long term starter. I have no clue which one that will be. Interceptions: What I've seen on numerous breakdowns of Caleb is that he tends to stay away from the compressed reads where the defense is in tight. That's not necessarily a bad thing except at the same time he often ignores easy wide open underneath routes. You can pick any of his highlight throws from scrambles and more often than not find an easy target open underneath early in the progression. What I see on film is that if he can't make the read he wants he'll just scramble and try to make something on his own. He's really good at that in college but he's not that fast at the NFL level so again we have to project how he'll adjust to being forced to stay in the pocket. There are some times on film where he's composed in the pocket and goes through his progressions. That's the same with Maye. You can see in the video I posted that Maye is making those tight seam throws. He's not always perfectly accurate but he's making those reads. Doing it with reps you will learn how to get better. Really both of these guys have several bad habits to break but both have starting NFL QB talent. We have to figure out who is going to work harder to close the gap. If we choose Caleb I'll be hopeful he's got the work ethic to do that and I certainly hope he proves me wrong. If I had my way I wouldn't want to see any of these QBs starting in Wk 1. They aren't ready. (FWIW I purposely picked a scouting report that highlighted all those negatives on Maye).

What's next for me is making Wash bend over for the next 6 weeks until they've given me everything I want so they can draft the princess. Williams and Maye both need plenty of work to become good starters. I like Daniels but that narrow frame is a concern but he'll make a lot of splash plays. I'm also not sure about his short game/reads. Williams reminds me too much of Fields bypassing the easy reads and forcing plays deep. He's good at extending plays and his pocket presence is really good (sliding away from pressure) but when the pressure is close he just throws up prayers. In that aspect he reminds me of Goff. Unlike Goff he can throw from any arm angle (elasticity they like to call it). When he scrambles he can't really run away from top defenders and so he'll have to adjust to that in the NFL, along with learning how to carry the football when he scrambles. The release is quick and tight which is good, better than Maye. Maye has elite arm talent all over the field, similar to Justin Herbert. He doesn't have as good pocket presence as Williams and that has to improve. He's just as effective at scrambling as Williams although he is helped more by his size and strength breaking arm tackles but he's not as agile. Maye can feather the ball into tight windows between zone coverage or just rip it 30yds on a rope. He will stand in a tight pocket or step up and make big time throws. He's not as good throwing on the run as Caleb and his release takes longer but at times he can flick the ball forward similar to what you see Josh Allen do. He's going to need a lot of good coaching and some time but IMAO (absolute opinion) his physical tools are just as good as Williams although there are different strengths/weaknesses. It depends on what you want in your QB. If you're ok with the tall stand in the pocket QB who can scramble at times or do you want the guy who can make any play a show. Oh and at the top of my list is the fact you won't have to deal with a primadonna and his father. Yes sir, AZ is the old school lunch pail type. I'll take the talented blue collar football players over the talented princesses all day long, plus my extra picks.

Yeah he highlighted a whole bunch of things Caleb has to fix. But he ignored a ton of the underneath wide open routes just like Caleb ignores them.

So we're drafting the guy who blew us off? I'm just going to call him Princess. Maybe they can put a unicorn and a rainbow on his helmet for him.

I hope we're not stuck with the schmuck and trade back to #2 for Maye.

Exactly... just a drop. I'd have preferred the bag of chips in this trade.

hang onto him. He's a lot better than any other backup and in-season someone always need help. Or just get the comp pick which will be of higher value than this.

If that's real it is horrible. Might as well hang onto him and get the comp pick next year.

This guy? Justin Herbert has not won in the playoffs in his career.

I liked his press conference answer about what it takes to be good on 3rd down. He said (paraphrasing) ...knowledge, you have to know where to be and when to be there. He's proven he can do that time and again. We have to draft a WR early to take advantage of the talent in this draft. Whoever that is they will have 2 excellent mentors in DJ and Keenan.

I see that but it's tough for me to use a valuable 2nd Rd pick on a guy hoping he gets in shape. He had several weeks to get prepared for the Senior Bowl and if that job interview with millions of dollars on the line wasn't enough to motivate him then what will? Should he fall to day 3 and we want to take a chance there then I'm good with that but there is far too much talent in the middle of Rd 2 for me to take that risk.

You like T'Vondre Sweat a lot. I like him a lot too in the first half of games. Even in the Senior Bowl 1v1 practices that dude was gassed.

To #1 overall, yes depending on where you think their 1st Rd pick would land next year. But there is a premium attached to moving up for a QB so they'd need to bring a little more amunition. Regardless my absolute 100% opinion is that there is no way Poles trades with them for #1. Williams has the physical talent to be a very good QB but enough arrogance to think that will be handed to him. If he's going to trade out of #1, however that plays out I don't think Poles wants to see it in his division. Minn knows that too so I think their thought might be to trade up for either Daniels or Maye, if not them then possibly for McCarthy. McCarthy should be on the board for them anyway but someone can always leap frog you and trade into the 9 spot with Chicago to draft him. Also realistic is that Chicago trades to #2 and then drafts MHJr. That pushes QBs into 3/4 and Minn might be able to trade with Arizona to #4.

Gilbert every day.

Thank you Lovie Smith.

This trade is pretty surprising and offers more draft intrigue as I'm reading comments across the web. One guy brought up a great point that this trade and Mike Williams being cut almost certainly means the Chargers are drafting a WR at #5. What is likely to go down in the draft is QB, QB, QB, WR (AZ), WR (LAC), and then WR (NYG). Of course all the Caleb fans are ecstatic because Poles brought in elite WR talent for your rookie QB to succeed, along with Swift as a receiving threat, and another good TE. Add another piece to the Oline and we're ready. That cuts both ways if we keep Fields. Regardless, what Poles had to consider when Allen hit the market is 1) someone will make that trade and 2) how the draft will then play out. If Poles wants QB at #1 or maybe #2 then the trade fits need, no biggie. Alternatively if you have a very strong offer on the table to trade back outside the top 10, and you're ok with keeping Fields, then now you know for sure you won't get one of the top 3 WRs even at #9. Any WR we get outside the top 10 will be more of a role player in his rookie year. The trade for Allen mitigates that risk. A big trade back could net you additional 1st Rd picks in 2025 and 2026 (plus more) which then mitigates your QB risk with Fields. Considering their division neither team is likely to be drafting outside the top 20 in the next 2 years so the value forecast on their 1st Rd picks is pretty good. Having Allen should 100% tell you if Fields is your guy before the 2025 draft. I can't see him trading with Minn. Ideally if you make this kind of a trade you go outside your conference. This leaves us with the Broncos #12 and Raiders #13 who are staring at solving the Patrick Mahomes problem for another decade, and now Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert to the south in LA. How do you give yourself a fighting chance? You go get the next "Patrick Mahomes". Our draft could then look like: #9 DE (best value/talent), #12. Jackson Power Johnson. He's trending toward mid-1st now., this is a bit of a reach but if he's your guy you take him. Denver has no 2nd Rd pick and I can't even find a player we'd want off their roster that would fit within our cap. Then consider Las Vegas? That's a big stretch but they got a very expensive stadium with seats to fill and bills to pay. A losing team for the next 5 years with empty seats is not a good option although maybe the owner doesn't care. Plus Vegas itself is a destination city so it's easy to fill seats with visitor's fans. Sometimes its Occams Razor and all this just means we're taking a QB at #1 or #2 if we trade back with Wash.