AZ54

Agreed

I haven’t watched a ton of film on Banks but have seen some. I think his floor is most likely on par with Jones. What I have not really figured is where his ceiling is supposed to be. Even if the ceiling is close to Jones and the team wants to keep LT on a rookie deal for 5 years I’m ok with the plan. I’m pretty sure Banks will be there at 10. If we don’t draft him I think that means they see Kiran as the future. I just can’t see them risking LT as an issue to fix next year.

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/bears/2025/04/23/2025-nfl-draft-bears-will-campbell-play-left-tackle/83230685007/ “If they draft me, I’m playing left tackle," Campbell said Wednesday, via Jason Lieser.

No clue. Plus I tried to summarize about ten hours of opinions. Can easily be my mistake too.

From a true BPA value standpoint, and after all I've seen and read over the last few months I'd have to say Mathew Golden makes the most sense at 10. Having a legit 3rd WR is a need as well. Rome, DJ, and Golden is an insane trio for Caleb to throw to. My heart still prefers Nolen or even Wiliams, with a fallback to Banks since I want to build the trenches. I'll probably change my mind tomorrow.

I've been listening to a lot of mocks and such lately on Da Tube. Here is a compilation of various scouting opinions (not mine) that go against the grain. Some of these are "my guys" too. Keep in mind I am paraphrasing a week's worth of reviews so don't quote me on anything. I just wanted to bring up some negatives I've heard on many of the players we're looking at as our pick between 10 to 20 if we trade back. One thing worth noting as we head into draft day. Jeremiah and Dane Brugler were both adamant that their boards are generic and reflect nothing about scheme. What a board looks like for each team is going to be wildly different based on scheme and needs. If you need a slot WR then you won't have Tet McMillan as the top WR. Mason Graham: Brett Kohlman and EJ Snyder both agree that he's talented but will not be a great player in the NFL because if he does not win early in the rep he can't win at all on a second move once the OG or OT has his hands on him. They didn't say he won't be a good player just not a great three-down DT. If teams see it this way then it explains the rumors he's slipping out of the top 5. Kenneth Grant: From Daniel Jeremiah... for his size he lacks the power you'd expect him to play with. There is upside to his skillset but he's far from being close to it. He has him ranked 31 overall. Walter Nolen: Various sources, PFF, Jeremiah and others. Seems there are work ethic issues, rumors he walked off the practice field at least once. Indications he takes plays off too. The raw talent is there to be the best DT in this draft and a true blue chip player. Kelvin Banks: Jeremiah, PFF, others. He plays too high. He's good against lower competition but against the good teams and players he struggled. He's going to face that caliber of player every game in the NFL. Tyler Warren: Just not a good enough athlete to really separate as a runner. Good all around. Mykel Williams: Not enough production as a pass rusher but a true stud as a run defender. He's a little stiff at the top of the arc. He has enough talent to improve as a pass rusher but his ceiling might not be as high as his run defense. Derek Harmon: Best pure interior pass rusher if you want pressure, equally effective in the run game. Can't bend, or change direction well, misses a lot of tackles. Membou: Unknown on the left side. Skills fit but risk/reward is not ideal if that's your only Oline need. Everybody loves Jeanty even if he's not quite in the same class as Bijan Robinson. Consensus seems to be there are 3 legit blue chips in this draft: Hunter, Carter, and at a slightly lower level Jeanty. If you think the challenge of trying to find a good player to draft at 10 it's far worse for the teams ahead of us. Trading down out of the top 10 is too pricey for anyone to move up significantly and then what player would be worth that price? This is going to be an interesting draft to look back on in 3 years. I don't even know who I want at 10 anymore.

I just get the free Substack. Too cheap to get deeper into the quagmire.

I think he had Ersery listed at 89 overall. Someone I thought was a 2nd Rd lock.

Jeremiah’s final ranking. Some shocking names are way down the list. Nolen, Banks, Grant. On the flip side he has Warren and Loveland at 6 and 7 which I don’t see at all. Given all these wild variations in player rankings this is going to be a weird draft. https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-150-prospects-in-the-2025-nfl-draft-class

I want nothing to do with him. For all the debate we’ve had about the various analysts and their opinions the one constant is that none are enamored with Stewart’s play. I’ve heard a couple say that even his pressures are of the low quality variety such as screens. Almost every conversation about Stewart starts with his RAS score. Usually ends there too.

Braxton struggles with bull rushers but on 719 snaps he gave up a total of 5 sacks in 2024, and that's with Caleb holding onto the ball too long on many plays. If it were dial up a bull rush and get a sack, especially as you said every critical down in the 2nd half of the season where our offense was really stuck in the mud, I'd expect a lot more sacks than 5 total. Fortunately not every DE is Jared Verse or Myles Garrett or there'd be more than 5.

Right now.

With all this talk about Banks, Adam Mason brought up a great point that he is going to be very good trade bait for a trade down. There are several teams behind us that really need a LT. He is the best LT prospect in this draft especially if you need someone in Week 1. Jeanty could be the other trade bait...with my dream trade back to Dallas at 12 and yes that would come at a heavy price for Dallas. Maybe if we do that deal to 12 and then SF doesn't take Banks we could trade back again to SEA at 18. Those two trade backs could see us end up with three 3rd Rd picks. Six picks in the top 82 out of this draft could fill in some very good depth on our roster.

The reason I look for different opinions is precisely because nobody is always right. No GM is always right. With regard to Warren/Loveland....I didn't think Colestan Loveland was all that good as a route runner. Not that I thought he was bad, it's just something I now feel I need to go back and look at a bit closer. That's not for 10, that's in case we trade back or he's there for us in the 2nd. Also it was interesting to hear Miller say that he had Rome as his #1 WR last year. Definitely not a consensus opinion but one that matched Ryan Poles. ----------- By the way, I keep seeing on Youtube that Dan Roushar had a press conference, or maybe he had an interview, but I can't find it anywhere. Does anyone know about that, or have a link?

I’m just saying the fact we gave him $10mil per year means to me that Dennis Allen will be using him to his strength. IMO that is playing downhill around the LOS. TJ understands route concepts and is very good getting to his landmarks in zone coverage and taking away the quick passes. He’s not going to cover anyone for an extended time zone or man. What does that mean for what they intend to do in scheme and in the draft? Some of what Allen wants to do is coming to light with yesterdays press conference where he talked about moving Kyler Gordon to safety on some plays. Really just finding ways to keep him on the field more often. More importantly he was clear that pass rusa comes from the IDL. DE are there to contain and squeeze the pocket (my inference). Definitely changes my thoughts on DT draft targets and might put players like Norman Lott on our radar in Rd 2 or 3. He was also clear about Dayo moving inside to pass rush in some situations. We’re going to need a good third DE for those situations. Is that player on the roster?

First off nobody wants a LT worse than Jones. That’s the minimum expectation. This decision is not just Banks vs Jones. If we think Banks floor is to be as good as Jones then we also don’t have to extend Jones’ contract. The choice then is Banks + $5-7 mil. That’s enough to get a decent starting safety. Where it gets tricky is what the team thinks of Kiran. Can he get to that same floor this year or next? Can he get to his ceiling which is higher than Banks? Toss in the injury recovery and how that affects the first four games. At risk is giving up drafting a potential Pro Bowl player at another position. We could go the insurance route with the thought to move Banks inside down the road. You don’t always know how that will work. I say that having just listened to Matt Miller talk about how upright Banks plays and the issues that will cause him if he moves to guard. Miller had some interesting things to say about Warren vs Loveland too so I’ll link it here in case anyone else wants to hear it.

I don't take PHX comments to mean Warren isn't a good player just that he's not an elite talent. Plus you can get similar talent later in the draft. I don't see the All Pro skillset either. He might get there if he's on that right team that can get him the numbers (ala KC) but he's not Kelce either. Kelce was a unicorn as a runner at his size. If you watch Warren's highlights closely you'll see often how quickly he gets run down. It might be a big gain because he was wide open. I disagree a bit with PHX in that I think Warren is good at many things he's just not great at any. He'd make our roster better just not as good as other picks we can get at 10. Those other picks (i.e. Banks, Nolen) don't have to be All Pro either to make the team better than it would be with Warren, at least that's how I see it if the trenches are solid.

Nothing to add to that. I don’t like it either. I’m ok with Ersery in the 2nd and Reed in the 5th.

I absolutely think Skattebo will be on the board for us in the 3rd Rd when we pick... because he lacks speed and that is the darling of many GMs and coaches. FWIW I think his 5yd burst is elite and pairs very nicely with his very good contact balance. That's why so many 2nd and 3rd defenders looking to join the gang tackle just grab air. Then he gets run down from behind 10yds later. Jeanty is very similar in how he plays off the contact but he has long speed. Scanning NFL.com team needs I see 11 teams listed as needing a RB. Like the Bears all of them have 5 top needs listed. There is zero chance all 11 draft a RB in the first 2 rounds but let's say 5 or even 6 teams do (one could be us but that doesn't change the question of if Cam is on the board at 72). Who gets drafted in those rounds: Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Kalen Johnson.... seems clear those are the top 4 in many places. After that it's a mish-mash of names on the rankings lists depending on where you look. Judkins is often listed as 5 but in reality 5-10 likely have very similar grades so it becomes a preference of running style/scheme fit/need (i.e. chain mover or big gain RB). I'm pretty sure all of those players are faster than Skattebo's 4.65 forty, who is going to be a chain mover. If all you want is a chain mover there are good options for that who are faster than Skattebo such as Damien Martinez. Certainly we could see 2 or 3 RBs go right before us in Rd 3 but I still think Cam isn't one of them. As usual all of the top 10 drafting teams suck. If you are rebuilding and don't draft Jeanty then there is far better value players at more important positions to help your rebuild in Rd 1 and 2. With this much depth at a devalued position it wouldn't surprise me if only 2 RBs are off the board for either of our 2nd Rd picks. That early 2nd range might be where the number of trades increases as playoff teams trade up for a key talent in the top 40 or 50 where there are still starting caliber players on the board. Depending how far they move up a playoff team is giving up a late 3rd or 4th Rd pick.

Exactly. The Bears Oline was so bad the opportunity for a 5th Rd pick to start in week 1 was wide open. To Braxton's credit he came in and earned it. The issue is we haven't gotten the growth expected in years 2 and 3.

So many to choose from just within the 3rd Rd grades.

Which in my post I alluded to the fact this contract makes that something I expect Dennis Allen to do with TJ.

Correct and the pundits will still criticize the “reach”.

For sure we disagree. I see him chasing from behind when routes go downfield. Love him within 10 yards of the LOS. If our pass rush is good enough we don’t have to worry about double moves on routes from RBs then he’s good. Staying in phase with RBs downfield was something Roquan was good at.

Saw one video last night where one draftnik said he had nearly the same grades on players from 8 to 40. At that point BPA just becomes team need.