AZ54

I'm not a big fan of trading back from 9 because it takes you out of the range of the blue chip players and you don't get but one decent pick in exchange. Trade 9/13 and get a mid 3rd Rd pick. Trade 9/20 and you can get a 2nd Rd pick plus maybe a 4th but that's a huge drop in talent. The money ball is all about moving out of #1 and I think I'm one of just 3 fans here that would gladly do that.

As soon as I posted this I got my answer reading the Keenan Allen thread. Shelton is the gap insurance for a rookie.

Allen would be a perfect mentor for Rome Odunze. Contested catch experts on the boundary.

I don’t like it. Way too much money and a pick. This screams big trade down headed our way that will take us out of the MHJr range and will recoup the draft picks we’ve given up. Now if he got LA to pay some of that salary that’d be sweet. At 32 there isn’t really room to do anything but a one year contract extension. Even that seems risky.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39731763/bears-reach-one-year-deal-ex-rams-center-coleman-shelton Hard to get a read on this. The big prize Connor Williams is still available and would be a great fit but his injury recovery really clouds the contract talks. Is Shelton gap insurance if we sign Williams? Is he gap insurance to help a rookie come up to speed?

While the toss of a coin has a random outcome correctly calling the outcome does not necessarily have the same result from different individuals.

To be clear I’m in the keep Justin, keep MHJr or Rome Odunze, keep Zach Frazier or whichever OG we take in round 2. And keep the top 10 DE we draft among next years elite edge class. I have yet to see a QB worth trading all those players for.

TE is one of the most injured positions.

No way the value of aTE over the best LT prospect. If you really want a TE with that pick you try to trade down a bit and let someone else grab the OT.

DJ Moore

With Jonathan Owen’s signing Poles has remade the safety group. I’ve been drafting a safety in mocks Rd2 or 3. That’s out the window now. I haven’t felt this good about the DB group since the Mike Brown heyday. This D needs one more pass rusher. Find 2 somehow and watch out.

Go get the Center.

They have a lot more history together than that: https://www.profootballrumors.com/2024/03/bears-to-sign-te-gerald-everett#ref=home

Very good move and just above a league average salary. I agree Bowers is definitely off the prospect list.

Ain't nobody gonna out work Byard. This guy is a great locker room fit and a great player to lead the defensive backfield. He may have lost half a step but you can bet he's working this offseason to get it back. I expected we'd pay closer to $10mil for a FS so finding one now who was former All-Pro for what I think is going to be $7.5m/y is pretty good. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCcifj6nmsI It might not be obvious but the times are changing. 2 years ago FAs spurned us even when we offered more money. 2 years ago the best coaches (coordinators) spurned us looking for a "better landing spot". This year we were the first to sign one of the best OC candidates in the offseason. Now you see a former All-Pro signing who, at this point in his career, almost certainly wants a chance to win a Superbowl but at least to be on the playoff team. Now we have Pro Bowl talent at each level of the defense and two in the backfield. Can we find a way to add one more on the front line like Danielle Hunter (est $17m/y)? Or Christian Wilkins est $15m/y? I don't think there's budget for that but it's tantalizing to think about it. If we got Wilkins then grab Turner or Latu at 9.

Yep, IMO that's Tier 2 pay. $255mil/53 players so average salary is $4.8mil/yr. Next year it goes up another $30mil which equates to $5.4mil/yr across the roster.

After JJ expect no big money deals. I think we stick with tier 2 FAs at Safety and Center. I'd love to sign Christian Wilkins but there's no money or logic for doing that when you can fix 3 positions, C, S, and #3 WR for similar money.

Bills are negative $40mil in cap space, the worst in the NFL. That's after trading Bates. They ate $4mil in dead money, Bears pay Bates $4m/yr ea 2024/25. This is exactly what we've been paying Lucas Patrick the last 2 seasons. Patrick PFF grade = 50 Bates PFF grade = 78 That's one heck of an upgrade. Of course that's assuming he's our starting Center. Even as OG depth he's more than good enough to challenge Davis and at $4mil/yr this is a really good deal for us. Giving up a 5th Rd pick in a draft where we need a lot of picks to build depth screams trade down. That is of course just my dumb opinion. A team doesn't know for sure they can trade back from 9 until draft day, and really only when they are on the clock, so that means the most likely trade back is from #1. Poles has a better feel for the level of interest and a sense of the value he might get now that the combine week is over. I don't think that's imminent either but my spidey sense still says watch for Washington. As Phx said, Bates allows us room to draft a rookie and give him a year to learn, especially key if you want to move someone like Barton from OG to C. This is supposed to be a really good IOL draft. Don't get too fixated on the big names at Center. We have a lot of needs and Poles is big on value. Trading back and drafting Powers-Johnson in Rd 1 as many mocks have done doesn't scream value and now I'd guess that's completely off the table. Van Pran's stock is falling after a poor combine, he's likely day 3 now. There are better IOL options and from what I've read that goes well into Rd 3.

I'm good, just been relaxing staying out of the noise and confusion while watching more videos of prospects. Wanted to get my preferences in before things get cooking so I can see if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, or wrong as usual.

I'm 100% out on Williams. I've been watching many reviews on Williams. Elite talent but red flags are all over the place for me and it's that floor that scares me. I see the arm talent and the pocket presence at times. Red flags on the field: These are correctable IF he's coachable. I see a guy who far too often holds onto the ball too long. So yes he can get out of trouble in the pocket but if he threw on time he wouldn't have to. People see the highlight play from the scramble and it's good that he can do that. But why can't he just take his wide open checkdowns? It's not that he can't throw on time it's that he often doesn't. He does not throw a lot of picks but I agree with one of the film analysts who said he's afraid to get hit. When he's under pressure he makes bad decisions and bad throws. Too often it just looks really bad. Seeing that trait on film in college where he's usually the best athlete in the backfield is a concern because the athletes coming after him only get better in the NFL. Again, this doesn't mean he can't learn to throw the ball away. I'm not sure how coachable he is when he's out there saying he's going to rewrite the record books and he hasn't seen an NFL defense yet. I'm not sure how coachable he is if he's in Chicago when he doesn't want to be there. Red flags off the field. Dude has no agent and is going to "negotiate" for himself. I've seen that game with Roquan and others and it's not pretty. On top of that he's already said he wants part ownership or something like that. I'm not sure where this is headed especially if.... He does not want to be in Chicago. Anyone who saw his quote from the press conference where he said he'd be excited to play in Chicago. Then he immediately said "it doesn't matter how I feel". Yes it does! Nobody makes that statement unless they would feel bad about their situation. Why this matters to me is leadership when times are tough. Times are tough in Chicago. If the Bears bypass a good QB in Fields (not great) plus a record draft haul in order to draft Williams then Williams will mostly play with the existing talent we have today. We'll add a few FAs and certainly one will be a better Center so that helps. Pick 9 might be a WR but might not be and the fall all the way back to 3rd Rd picks bypasses a ton of good 2nd Rd WR prospects. In that scenario all eyes will be on Wiliams to prove he's the guy. If he stumbles how does he handle the press conferences and the locker room? As to FA .... with cap space increasing by $30mil teams can hold onto any good player they want. We've seen this before with big cap increases. This year FA and next year with another $30mil boost forecasted will both be very soft in terms of avaliable FA talent. Of the few good ones that hit the market demand and lots of $$$ chasing them will make them way overpriced. Stay out of that business. Acquiring more draft picks now is the better approach IMO. Leadership... Williams' teammates sure didn't seem to have his back after the bowl game. I still think it's likely Williams is a very good NFL QB. He has enough talent to succeed. That alone doesn't sway me because I'm one of the very few who thinks we already have a good NFL QB. Even if Williams were to become Aaron Rodgers... that guy only won 1 Superbowl. If you're curious what an MVP caliber QB who is a prick can do to a team there is the evidence. Rodgers is well known for ignoring play calls and doing his own thing. Still one Superbowl win is better than what we have today. I agree, but I like the 49ers path where you load up a team with talent. We can do that with a good QB and a trade back, or two. The flip side watching Mahomes struggle all year long with an average WR corp. Their defense got them over the top. Now the eval for me is what is Drake Maye capable of. He didn't impress me in either of the games I watched but I can also see his arm talent is really good. Is it worth it to trade #1 to Wash and pick up both of their 2nd Rd picks and 2025 1st? Then trade Fields? I still have work to do on him but I've seen a few analysts say Maye is the best QB in this draft. Others say he's too inconsistent. Why would Wash give up so much to move up 1 spot? Simple. Their owner Magic Johnson is a former NBA player and in the NBA elite stars are all you need. 2 elite players and you are deep in the playoffs year after year. Find a 3rd wheel and you win the Championship. If he holds that same philosophy for the NFL QB, and people calling Williams the next Mahomes influences that, then he'll pay. I don't think he'll risk waiting until draft day either. Given the Kingsbury signing and the way it happened they might as well have put up billboard on the side of the highway listing their intentions. If I'm Poles I'm waiting on that deal with Wash. Then from #2 I sit likely until draft day and let all the other QB needy teams wonder what we're doing. In the meantime they will fall in love with one of Daniels or Maye. That could be New England getting nervous and we trade back to #3 as long as the Bears are content with Fields or whichever QB remains on the board. Do that and draft Maye or Daniels, trade Fields, and you're still sitting with multiple 1st/2nd round picks in future drafts. If Poles likes Fields he can trade back again from #3 and let the Giants or Atlanta draft the remaining top QB. Or if the Raiders come in big, go back to 13. We'd have so many extra draft picks in 2024, 2025, and maybe even 2026, that we could pull off one of Killa's elite drafts. Poles has to determine where the blue chip prospects end. Is it after pick 8, 9, 10, 11? If the Raiders come in with Maxx Crosby in the deal that offsets one of our blue chip needs at DE and it's easier to drop back to 13 while still grabbing one blue chipper at 9.

Halftime. I’m still waiting for the CJ Stroud is better than Justin Fields moment. What is better is his Oline.

Forgot to add we should draft his receiver Franklin too.

I forgot about him. He's an intriguing prospect. I'm still good with the trade down scenario and grabbing an insurance policy at QB.

It's the same thing as Fields it would be really nice if some site would put this data into a better statistical distribution. We look at average but what is the median value (50% above/below), are there two distributions one for pocket passing and one for scrambles? It's useless comparing guys like Fields and Williams who are elite at scrambling with players who will never ever extend a play like that. Time trend would be nice too... did things change and get better or worse during the season? Did opponent affect it? What happened to Williams from first half of season to second half where he didn't play as well?

I don't watch all the Bills games but of the 3 or 4 I did watch I didn't see a single good game from Josh Allen. All the stuff here about how we need someone to "play on time" within the offense.... almost none of that showed up. Admittedly that was earlier in the season and they played better down the stretch but at times he was just WTF awful throwing into coverage.