AZ54
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Posts posted by AZ54
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On 3/16/2024 at 11:30 AM, Mongo3451 said:
That analyst is good.
Yeah he highlighted a whole bunch of things Caleb has to fix. But he ignored a ton of the underneath wide open routes just like Caleb ignores them.
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3 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:
Poles being nice to Justin was getting him out of here right away.
Timeline:
Poles wasn't moving Fields as soon as the season was over. He had to vent his options first. I believe getting Caleb in for the 30 visit was to rush to the decision for Poles and Caleb blew him off so it took him more work to decide. He was not trading Fields until he decided. Then mac Jones got traded for a 6 th took away any value return for Justin. So he took the beat option for Justin going to Pittsburgh. Its a 2025 pick to end up wit the 4 th instead of the 6 th. He couldn't get it now. Ideally he should have kept him to raise his value as Caleb developed. It would have been a circus. So he had to do it now.
So we're drafting the guy who blew us off? I'm just going to call him Princess. Maybe they can put a unicorn and a rainbow on his helmet for him.
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I hope we're not stuck with the schmuck and trade back to #2 for Maye.
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34 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
This move is a drop in the bucket. Calm down gents. Better things are coming. We have become high on possibility. Reality is, we are on the rise!
Plus, this move put extra sizzle on the number one...
Exactly... just a drop. I'd have preferred the bag of chips in this trade.
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39 minutes ago, adam said:
What it comes down to is their own internal evaluation of Justin. If they didn't think he could improve enough to pay him, and based on the compensation, 31 other teams felt the same way, then what can Poles do?
There would've been way too much drama in the locker room and with the fanbase, so this is an unfortunate set of circumstances.
hang onto him. He's a lot better than any other backup and in-season someone always need help. Or just get the comp pick which will be of higher value than this.
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2 hours ago, jason said:
Horrible value. Better to keep him as insurance, and see if the new QB can beat him out.
If that's real it is horrible. Might as well hang onto him and get the comp pick next year.
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On 3/15/2024 at 7:51 AM, Mongo3451 said:
That's not how it works. It only works if you have Justin Herbert as your QB.
This guy?
Justin Herbert has not won in the playoffs in his career.
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I liked his press conference answer about what it takes to be good on 3rd down. He said (paraphrasing) ...knowledge, you have to know where to be and when to be there. He's proven he can do that time and again.
We have to draft a WR early to take advantage of the talent in this draft. Whoever that is they will have 2 excellent mentors in DJ and Keenan.
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1 hour ago, Pixote said:
If he has motivation & self-pride, the Bears trainer & dietician will get him in condition to be a 3 or 4 down 3T,
I see that but it's tough for me to use a valuable 2nd Rd pick on a guy hoping he gets in shape. He had several weeks to get prepared for the Senior Bowl and if that job interview with millions of dollars on the line wasn't enough to motivate him then what will? Should he fall to day 3 and we want to take a chance there then I'm good with that but there is far too much talent in the middle of Rd 2 for me to take that risk.
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You like T'Vondre Sweat a lot. I like him a lot too in the first half of games. Even in the Senior Bowl 1v1 practices that dude was gassed.
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43 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:
Minnesota traded with Houston to get draft capital to trade up for a QB. Does 11 and 23 plus a one next year work out in the draft value charts?
To #1 overall, yes depending on where you think their 1st Rd pick would land next year. But there is a premium attached to moving up for a QB so they'd need to bring a little more amunition.
Regardless my absolute 100% opinion is that there is no way Poles trades with them for #1. Williams has the physical talent to be a very good QB but enough arrogance to think that will be handed to him. If he's going to trade out of #1, however that plays out I don't think Poles wants to see it in his division.
Minn knows that too so I think their thought might be to trade up for either Daniels or Maye, if not them then possibly for McCarthy. McCarthy should be on the board for them anyway but someone can always leap frog you and trade into the 9 spot with Chicago to draft him.
Also realistic is that Chicago trades to #2 and then drafts MHJr. That pushes QBs into 3/4 and Minn might be able to trade with Arizona to #4.
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5 hours ago, killakrzydav said:
In Gilbert today but back to Florida on the red eye tomorrow. Where are you repping?
Gilbert every day.
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Thank you Lovie Smith.
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This trade is pretty surprising and offers more draft intrigue as I'm reading comments across the web. One guy brought up a great point that this trade and Mike Williams being cut almost certainly means the Chargers are drafting a WR at #5. What is likely to go down in the draft is QB, QB, QB, WR (AZ), WR (LAC), and then WR (NYG).
Of course all the Caleb fans are ecstatic because Poles brought in elite WR talent for your rookie QB to succeed, along with Swift as a receiving threat, and another good TE. Add another piece to the Oline and we're ready. That cuts both ways if we keep Fields.
Regardless, what Poles had to consider when Allen hit the market is 1) someone will make that trade and 2) how the draft will then play out. If Poles wants QB at #1 or maybe #2 then the trade fits need, no biggie.
Alternatively if you have a very strong offer on the table to trade back outside the top 10, and you're ok with keeping Fields, then now you know for sure you won't get one of the top 3 WRs even at #9. Any WR we get outside the top 10 will be more of a role player in his rookie year. The trade for Allen mitigates that risk. A big trade back could net you additional 1st Rd picks in 2025 and 2026 (plus more) which then mitigates your QB risk with Fields. Considering their division neither team is likely to be drafting outside the top 20 in the next 2 years so the value forecast on their 1st Rd picks is pretty good. Having Allen should 100% tell you if Fields is your guy before the 2025 draft.
I can't see him trading with Minn. Ideally if you make this kind of a trade you go outside your conference. This leaves us with the Broncos #12 and Raiders #13 who are staring at solving the Patrick Mahomes problem for another decade, and now Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert to the south in LA. How do you give yourself a fighting chance? You go get the next "Patrick Mahomes".
Our draft could then look like: #9 DE (best value/talent), #12. Jackson Power Johnson. He's trending toward mid-1st now., this is a bit of a reach but if he's your guy you take him. Denver has no 2nd Rd pick and I can't even find a player we'd want off their roster that would fit within our cap. Then consider Las Vegas? That's a big stretch but they got a very expensive stadium with seats to fill and bills to pay. A losing team for the next 5 years with empty seats is not a good option although maybe the owner doesn't care. Plus Vegas itself is a destination city so it's easy to fill seats with visitor's fans.
Sometimes its Occams Razor and all this just means we're taking a QB at #1 or #2 if we trade back with Wash.
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1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:
SOB, Poles hits another home run in the bottom of the 7 th. Allen will be 32 , be is still productive. 108-1243-7 Even if he slows down a bit you still have a high level player.This is his last year of his contract and we will have to pay 23 mil of it. I except them to add a few years and get it down to 18 mil.A year.
Allen was never a speed guy at 4.71 forty so his game won't be as effected much by being a little slower.
This is not a guy running a 4.7 forty. He's not a 4.4 forty either but there are plenty of flashes where DBs aren't catching him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUFUNDOaGhk
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25 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:
The reality is this is like a 14 receiver draft. There’s tons of solid wrs after the top three that I’d love to have
I agree, and even with Keenan Allen in house I still prefer to draft 2 WRs in the top 100. I still want one of the top 3.
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2 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:
JCJ is a blue chip player. He’d be a great trade back target. So is Newton. Trading to 15 or 17 would be wise.
What is there about Jerzan Newton at 6'2" and 32" arms that stands out as a top 20 pick? When I watch his highlights he seems a lot closer to Will Sutton than Aaron Donald. it's not that I think Newton isn't a good prospect but I don't see him winning with elite quickness off the snap ala Tommie Harris or Aaron Donald. When he doesn't win off the snap he's athletic enough to get to edge of blockers and then get upfield but will that work as well in the NFL with short arms? As Aaron Donald has lost some of his initial quickness he's had more trouble defending the run. If Newton is already in that slower category then he becomes more of a situational pass rusher and I'm not comfortable with that floor as a 1st Rd pick. Seems Newton didn't want to or couldn't work out at the combine so we'll see what his numbers are at his pro day.
I still like Ruke Orhorhoro who lacks technique but has really good tools to be a 3-tech as a day 2 prospect, at 6'4". 34" arms, and his 1.67s 10yd split shows he has some burst. I think I'm just going to call him Scooby. Say his last name fast and you tell me?
https://thedraftnetwork.com/2024/01/17/ruke-orhorhoro-scouting-report-nfl-draft-2024
"Orhorhoro projects as a disruptive 3-technique, single-gap defensive tackle. He is an impact player on the defensive line. There’s more room for Orhorhoro to grow and develop his game. He possesses the overall skill set to be a potential three-down defender. I view Baltimore Ravens IDL Justin Madubuike as his ceiling."
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Day 3 picks can come and go all day long. Getting a quality backup in Bates is good value and not something we're going to find in the 5th Rd of the draft. N'Keal Harry was for a future 2024 7th Rd pick. Those are likely practice squad players and unfortunately that's all Harry turned out to be. You can easily find similar talent in UDFAs so no real loss of value iMO. Claypool sucked and that trade was stinking pile of guano.
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7 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:
Risky I agree but this clearly shows he's going for it in 2024-25. That leans toward trading back with both first rounders and keeping Justin for at least one more year. He will still draft a WR but the player won't have any pressure getting use to the NFL in year one. Like you said, add one year, it falls into his window to win.
I'm not a big fan of trading back from 9 because it takes you out of the range of the blue chip players and you don't get but one decent pick in exchange. Trade 9/13 and get a mid 3rd Rd pick. Trade 9/20 and you can get a 2nd Rd pick plus maybe a 4th but that's a huge drop in talent. The money ball is all about moving out of #1 and I think I'm one of just 3 fans here that would gladly do that.
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As soon as I posted this I got my answer reading the Keenan Allen thread. Shelton is the gap insurance for a rookie.
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Allen would be a perfect mentor for Rome Odunze. Contested catch experts on the boundary.
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I don’t like it. Way too much money and a pick. This screams big trade down headed our way that will take us out of the MHJr range and will recoup the draft picks we’ve given up. Now if he got LA to pay some of that salary that’d be sweet. At 32 there isn’t really room to do anything but a one year contract extension. Even that seems risky.
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Hard to get a read on this. The big prize Connor Williams is still available and would be a great fit but his injury recovery really clouds the contract talks. Is Shelton gap insurance if we sign Williams? Is he gap insurance to help a rookie come up to speed?
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1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:
Yes and no. Every pick is a risk, but some QBs clearly have a better chance to be great than others. It's not completely random.You have to factor that in. Caleb Williams has a better chance to be great in the NFL than anyone in a while. That doesnt mean that he is guaranteed or that he couldnt bust while another prospect thrives.
But it's like this. Imagine two games. One is a coin flip. Guess it right and you win. Another is a dice roll. Roll a six and you win. You play the coin flip and your friend plays the dice game. You lose, but he wins. That doesn't mean that playing each game gives an equal chance to win or that the next time you play you shouldnt choose the dice game, because you should.
Some would say "but half the time you lose, so it's just as much of a gamble as the dice game" but it isnt. it is quantifiably 3 times more likely that you win the coin toss than the dice game. "But there was a time that the dice game won, so it's all a gamble" right, but its not the SAME gamble - its still three times better bet to play the coin flip.
First pick overall QBs have a much higher chance to be great than the rest of the top ten. And top ten picked QBs have a better chance than any others. First rounders have a better chance than second rounders, and second rounders have a better chance than third rounders etc. We posted a ton of analysis here a couple months back proving that beyond any doubt.
And Williams is a better prospect than the average #1 pick QB too.
Just because something isnt 100% predictable doesn't mean that all gambles are the same. Thats the error in your logic.
Yeah I really do. I still think he should have fired Eberflus, but we can get around that. Assuming he picks Caleb WIlliams with the #1 pick, I'm giving him an A overall. Maybe not an A+ (Eberflus, Velus Jones, Claypool) but still a solid A for sure.
If he passes on taking a top pick QB and rolls with Justin, then I think that will be an epic error that will doom us for a decade (we wont have another #1 pick to get a GREAT QB) and Poles will get fired.While the toss of a coin has a random outcome correctly calling the outcome does not necessarily have the same result from different individuals.
What's next?
in Bearstalk
Posted
What's next for me is making Wash bend over for the next 6 weeks until they've given me everything I want so they can draft the princess. Williams and Maye both need plenty of work to become good starters. I like Daniels but that narrow frame is a concern but he'll make a lot of splash plays. I'm also not sure about his short game/reads.
Williams reminds me too much of Fields bypassing the easy reads and forcing plays deep. He's good at extending plays and his pocket presence is really good (sliding away from pressure) but when the pressure is close he just throws up prayers. In that aspect he reminds me of Goff. Unlike Goff he can throw from any arm angle (elasticity they like to call it). When he scrambles he can't really run away from top defenders and so he'll have to adjust to that in the NFL, along with learning how to carry the football when he scrambles. The release is quick and tight which is good, better than Maye.
Maye has elite arm talent all over the field, similar to Justin Herbert. He doesn't have as good pocket presence as Williams and that has to improve. He's just as effective at scrambling as Williams although he is helped more by his size and strength breaking arm tackles but he's not as agile. Maye can feather the ball into tight windows between zone coverage or just rip it 30yds on a rope. He will stand in a tight pocket or step up and make big time throws. He's not as good throwing on the run as Caleb and his release takes longer but at times he can flick the ball forward similar to what you see Josh Allen do. He's going to need a lot of good coaching and some time but IMAO (absolute opinion) his physical tools are just as good as Williams although there are different strengths/weaknesses. It depends on what you want in your QB. If you're ok with the tall stand in the pocket QB who can scramble at times or do you want the guy who can make any play a show.
Oh and at the top of my list is the fact you won't have to deal with a primadonna and his father. Yes sir, AZ is the old school lunch pail type. I'll take the talented blue collar football players over the talented princesses all day long, plus my extra picks.