Alaskan Grizzly
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Posts posted by Alaskan Grizzly
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2 minutes ago, adam said:
Yeah, these are supposed to be the guaranteed hit guys. It's just interesting how few make it to a Super Bowl with their drafted team.
So the moral of the story is, don’t draft first round players with the intent to win a Super Bowl. But instead wait until their 4-5th year (or later) to sign them and then make the run? 😂👍
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3 hours ago, adam said:
I would say "projected to be better than" as he hasn't taken an NFL snap yet. The projections are very positive and he can still be a bust but odds are he will be at least good to really good.
Indeed. Just as the recent 'discussion' we had that reflected that aside from the passing yardage, both Williams and Fields collegiate stats were pretty similar. And at the risk of going on "ad nauseum" I'd still give the favorable lean to Justin due to his reaching the college playoffs and playing pretty well while doing so (I know, no surprise).
That being said, I'm beginning to resign myself to the idea that Justin will be traded. Obviously I still think it'll be a mistake and we'll end up regretting it but only time will prove me wrong or right. I'm of the mindset like Merrill Hoge that Williams is "nothing special" and so far the projections are not showing anything to make me say "wow, this is the guy we need". A big reason I'm not on the Williams bandwagon is that I feel there is much more value in trading the #1 for more parts and pieces to build the team (around either Justin or a later picked QB).
Earlier today I watched a video that was doing an analysis of the potential trade of Justin and it involved a panel of four to include Louis Riddick. He said something I've heard here and agree with, that being: "Justin was not set up to succeed (in Chicago)". And added that the "rationale (of we already know Justin Fields compared to what Williams could do) is not a direct correlation." Oddly enough Riddick was defending the idea of keeping Justin as recent as three weeks ago. Now he said he feels Justin would excel with either Pittsburgh or more likely in Atlanta. And that's what concerns me.
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On 2/10/2024 at 9:51 AM, ASHKUM BEAR said:
Will there be a DJ Moore sighting in a SB commercial with Baha Mt Dew!?
DJ continuing to make the rounds. This time with Mike Florio and Chris Simms. He goes “definitely on record” with keeping Justin. And Ashkum, drops a hint about the commercial. 😉
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JSN and Chris Olave talk Waldron, Fields and MHJ.
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6 hours ago, adam said:
So is their a recent #1 pick that came in as accomplished as Williams and ended up as a bust? 72-10 TD-INT ratio in his last two season with 21 additional rushing TDs with 8,170 passing yards over the last two years. PCT: 64.5>66.6>68.6, Y/A: 9.1>9.4>9.4, QB Rating: 169.6>168.5>170.1. He really has been super consistent for a long period of time. Can anyone show me a QB that was that consistent for 2+ years in college that was a bust in the NFL?
Not sure I would consider Justin a "bust" but evidently many do because they want to replace him with Williams:
Fields collegiate career: 67-9 TD-IN ratio with 19 additional rushing TDs PCT: 69.2<67.2>70.2 Y/A: 8.4>9.2>9.3 QB Rating: 173.7>181.4<175.6 (some of these are better than Caleb’s).Taking into consideration (as you pointed out) the COVID shortened 2020 season where he played 8 games (his last year in college)
And here's this (found a post on Reddit from a USC/Bears fan) with stats for their respective last seasons in college:
Baker Mayfield: 285 comp 404 attempts 70.5 comp % 4627 yards 43 TDs 6 INTs 198.9 Rating
Kyler Murray : 260 comp 377 attempts 69.0 comp % 4361 yards 42 TDs 7 INTs 199.2 Rating
Caleb Williams : 333 comp 500 attempts 66.6 comp % 4537 yards 42 TDs 5 INTs 168.5 Rating (*this was from his second season where he won the Heisman. He actually regressed during this last season).
What's the common denominator for all three?
Here's another clue: Miller Moss played in place of Williams during the Holiday Bowl and had 23/33 for 372 yards with 6 TDS and 1 INTMaybe Moss will be the next "generational talent"?
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1 hour ago, jason said:
Williams is loaded with red flags and is going to be a bust.
Unfortunately i have to agree with you on this.
I’ll go a step further and say we’ll regret it if we trade away Justin.
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55 minutes ago, adam said:
Sweat and Hunter? Wow, that would arguably be the most formidable duo since prime Dent/Hampton. Mack/Quinn would be close but Quinn was a liability against the run.
He’s been brought up before as a potential pickup for Chicago. I for one would be great with it. But would Minny want to trade him in the division?
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42 minutes ago, adam said:
If you did count Mayfield, then drafting a QB #1 is a no-brainer, that would be 5 out of the last 6, and 7 out of the last 9 if you include Baker. Also, the one out of the 6 is Young, who still could become a decent QB.
Was making the playoffs one time a measure for success? Then if Murray makes it doesn’t Trubiksy? 🤷🏻♂️
Yes I'm being indignant. Blame Denail Brewing Mother Ale. And that I tweaked my back a few days ago. lol.
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3 hours ago, adam said:
Here is how the selection order of QBs has played out since 2010. I only counted QB1s selected in top 3, then all the remaining QBs in the first round. I listed the teams next to the guys that have not been starter quality yet. Most of those teams were terrible.
12 QBs as QB1 selected in top 3:
Bryce Young - CAR
Trevor Lawrence
Joe Burrow
Kyler Murray
Baker Mayfield - CLE
Jared Goff
Jameis Winston - TB
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford - STL/LAR
Mitchell Trubisky - CHI
Blake Bortles - JAX
50% hit rate12 QB2's Drafted in First Round:
C.J. Stroud
Zach Wilson - NYJ
Carson Wentz - PHI
Marcus Mariota - TEN
Robert Griffin - WAS
Sam Darnold - NYJ
Tua Tagovailoa
Daniel Jones - NYG
Jake Locker - TEN
Patrick Mahomes
Johnny Manziel - CLE
Tim Tebow - DEN
25% hit rate10 QB3s Drafted in First Round:
Trey Lance - SF
Anthony Richardson - IND
Justin Herbert
Josh Allen
Ryan Tannehill - MIA
Blaine Gabbert - JAX
Deshaun Watson
Dwayne Haskins - WAS
Paxton Lynch - DEN
Teddy Bridgewater - MIN
30% hit rate5 QB4s Drafted in First Round:
Josh Rosen - ARZ
Justin Fields - CHI
Christian Ponder - MIN
Brandon Weeden - CLE
Jordan Love - GB
0% hit rate2 QB5s Drafted in First Round:
Mac Jones - NE
Lamar Jackson
50% hit rateI have questions.
Do you mean by QB2 to mean QBs that are selected in the 1st round but #2 overall? And QB5s would be first round but later; Jackson #32 and Jones #15?
When you say "hit rate" I would assume to the team they were drafted to? Love could still make the case to be a "hit" for GB as they did make it to the playoffs his first season. Just like Stroud could be considered a "miss" because like Love, although he made the playoffs they were out in early rounds. Richardson (Indy) is still too early to call since his rookie season was derailed by injury.
And if you're simply referring to the player, then a case could be made for Mayfield finding a home in TB even though things didn't work out in Cleveland. Similar to Flacco finding a resurgence (but from the draft in 2008 and outside your parameters). Was Goff a "hit" for LA or as the player in Detroit?
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DJ Moore, again. Talks about his choice for what to do at #1 (2:45) and what his feedback was for the exit interviews.
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Merril Hoge’s take on Fields vs Williams. At 4:30 mark if it doesn’t start there.
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8 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
We have a week schedule. We will also improve as a team. Football 101
Sure, but why more wins with Justin than with another QB? More resources around him?
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1 hour ago, adam said:
At this point, if you know that, you might as well take your shot while you have it. The Bears roster is too good to finish in the top 5 again, they are trending away from the top 10, so if they are going to get a new QB, it's this year
And if that other QB turns out a flop?
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2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
What's really crazy, is that I think we win 11 with keeping Justin and 10 with Williams or Maye. 2025
Color me intrigued. ❓
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Kay Adams interviews DJ Moore. Talk about Shane Waldron and Justin.
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1 hour ago, Pixote said:
Does anyone have info on how Mongo is doing, health-wise?
Last I heard, he had been admitted to a hospital and diagnosed with pneumonia. That was last August.
Last I saw a photo of him, it was painful to see how he had progressed with ALS.
I pray he will be able to view, if not attend in person or remotely, the HOF induction.
Sadly I think (our) Mongo is right. From what i read he’s been back home since early August where Jarrett Payton was seen visiting with him (below). McMichael’s wife Misty said she hopes he lives long for the ceremony but has already been working on his speech. And has managed so far to say “Thank you Chicago.”
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I believe it’s dated from last February (2023). It was regarding last year’s #1 overall. Saw the same one yesterday.
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Shannon (aka Mongo) struggles with what to do with Fields. I would agree that the least they could do, if they trade him, is to send him to Atlanta. With all the tools there AND it’s his hometown! Yikes.
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Hey Mongo, looks like your namesake is making it in. Along with Peppers and Hester. How cool!
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57 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
Maybe one last rambling. Both are good choices for the Bears. If the Bears didn’t have the Panthers pick and just had our pick at 9 - I would be entirely focused on adding more weapons for Justin and continuing to see if we could unlock his potential.
That is because everything I said about Justin - physically he has all the tools - mentally he is an incredible leader - it is purely as a pocket passer what limits him and if Bears weren’t holding #1 pick I would say let’s see what another year could do cause the upside is worth it.
So in my mind - the above implies Fields is absolutely still a viable qb1 with upside. Hence if we trade him the market should be good, because everything I said above.
Where everything gets wild is the Bears have a #1 pick with an elite qb prospect in the draft where the Bears don’t have to trade assets to get him, don’t have to mortgage future, and can reset the clock. It could be Williams is worse but pure passing wise he is a better prospect than Fields. Fields is an absolute stud from the pure tools side though (Allen and Herbert are the 2 on same hemisphere as Justin when it comes to physical tools.
So if Poles wanted to get a haul and build a better team - while it isn’t what I do - I still think the Bears are a better team because of it.
Really the only scenario I would hate is - Bears select MHJ at #1. I hate hate hate that scenario. If I’m not taking a qb at #1 than I advocate for a haul. Now maybe I get that haul and am at #3 and take MHJ which I am perfectly fine with.
Well said. I would agree with just about all of it. I’d be willing to take MHJ overall just because that’s how talented I think he is. But because the team needs more overall pieces and capital I can’t overlook that aspect just to have him “at any cost”. Really for the same reason I can’t consider taking any of the prospective QBs at #1. I’m of the belief there is enough talent among the QB prospects that one of them could be had in the lower part of round one or early 2. And while doing so giving Justin a run for his money. Thank you for the great response. Much appreciated.
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13 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
In college - on unpressured rushes - Caleb Williams ran <3% of the time - Justin Fields ran ~10% of the time. Caleb Williams can run - but he DOES NOT look to run. In fact one of the knocks on him holding the ball too long is that he continues to use his eyes to look downfield to make the pass when he could actually take off more and move on to the next play.
Williams' collegiate career rushing (3 years / 37 games): 289 attempts for 966 yards for 27 TDs
Fields' collegiate career rushing (3 years / 34 games): 260 attempts for 1133 yards for 19 TDs.
How is "holding the ball too long is that he continues to use his eyes to look downfield to make the pass..." different from what we've seen Justin do?
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23 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
I wonder if Jenkins asked for this, thinking he's still a tackle.
Sorry, should have added this was from August of '22.
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15 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
What was your original answer?
Same thing different delivery. For some reason my phone doesn't always make the connection. Sometimes I'll submit a message only to see it didn't take.
There's a lot of internets-webby stuff between Alaska and the rest of the world.
The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!
in Bearstalk
Posted
But if everything goes as planned and a higher percentage of your 1st and 2nd round draftees do well, and your team does well some of those players become trade bait for future 1st - 2nd round picks (ala Patriot-way) and thus “resetting the contract clock” on a bunch of players. IE: Justin himself a former 1st round pick could theoretically net at least one 2nd round pick and some even think 1st round.