Alaskan Grizzly
-
Posts
8,036 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Calendar
Posts posted by Alaskan Grizzly
-
-
9 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
We don’t have goats here in Alaska. Least not those type.
-
2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
To be fair stats are confusing and not just common sense sometimes. But when someone explains it, hopefully if you understand them, then you come off the argument instead of doubling down
Surely you’ve heard the famous quote: “There are three types of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics.” Essentially statistics taken in their raw form provide raw data. How you perceive or use them can be twisted however you see fit and help illustrate a narrative. To suggest stats in their raw form are “confusing” would be wrong. But to use the stats in your own analytics is where things can get tricky.
2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:But in the end, you gotta ask yourself, why would teams not take the best (most likely to succeed) option at #1? They wouldnt. So the professionals make the best bets they can. And like any gambler, you lose and you win, but losing a bet doesnt mean it wasnt a good bet, and winning a bet doesnt mean it was a smart bet either. And all you know when you make the bet is the odds of winning, not what the singular outcome will be.
Quick question. Do you think Carolina choosing Bryce Young was a “good bet”? How about if you weigh it against them passing on Stroud and seeing how well he did? Same question about former #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence? He himself three years in and led the league in INTs (his rookie year) and fumbles lost the last two. Does the scale tip to him being a “good bet” if you look at the recent addition of Mac Jones to the team? Who by the way has very similar stats overall, especially passing.
-
45 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
illogical
So what…you’re Spock now? Illogical and irrefutable are not the same you know. 😉👍
-
2 minutes ago, 50england50 said:
I have watched some tape on Williams and cannot see any strengths that are Fields weaknesses. Most people say the barrier to Fields being a success is him reading defences and making anticipatory throws. I haven’t seen Williams show this is a strength in his game.
If you want to use empirical analysis, you need to separate fact from opinion.
These are the facts that base my wish to keep Fields.
1) Fields has been saddled with a poor oline, receivers and play callers.
2) The roster has been decimated around Fields and it has had an impact on his lack of success.
3) Fields had greater success in college than Williams.
4) Fields played against superior competition than Williams.
5) Trading the No. 1 pick will return greater draft capital than trading Fields.
Finally my concern with trading Fields is the roster is starting to come together and we have addressed points 1 and 2. I want another year with Fields playing in an offense that should not hold him back and a defense that is competitive. If we get a great haul of draft picks from trading no.1 including a no. 1 in 2025, if Fields bums out, we can move on and the QB we bring in will be on a team that is built to not hinder a rookie QB.
Excellent work. I couldn’t have said it any better. (Seriously…I couldn’t).
~ signed Antagonistical Goat’s Ass analytics.
-
12 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
Just stop. This isn't fun anymore. I warned PHX that he was looking up a dead goats ass by debating you.
Are you telling me Skip won this round of stubbornness? I was hoping you’d be willing to explain…but ok. I’ll stop. 🫡
-
Just now, Mongo3451 said:
Based on Vegas thinks he's the best quarterback in this class.
You’re using Vegas odds to project QB success?
Not necessarily being a betting man what did Vegas say about Justin being traded a month (or so) ago versus now?
And since you’re using fancy vernacular, if using ‘emprical data’ (or probability), where does it say (statistically I assume) Caleb measures up to previous #1 overall picks? I’m genuinely fascinated to know how people like Mel Kiper get such high regard in this subject when he’s been wrong an awful lot of the time.
-
Just now, BearFan PHX said:
hes saying he has the best ODDS of succeeding.
And I ask again…based on?
-
1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:
put them all together into a single frankenstein stat - that's what I'm saying.
Maybe Daniels or Maye will have a better NFL career than Caleb - but from right here the odds are better that Williams will have a better career - and thats why if given the choice a team would pick Williams #1 and not one of the others.Ok then maybe you need to ‘dumb it down then’. In the last 25 years how many #1 overall picks have won a Super Bowl versus those who have that weren’t and also did?
And what are you basing your projection on that Williams will be better than the rest of his class overall? When in fact you say you haven’t watched any film on or studied Nix? Hypotheticals or ?!!
-
57 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
I can guarantee that Caleb Williams has the best QB odds to win a Superbowl out of this class.
Please do.
-
1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:
the problem is, Fields doesn't have what it takes to be a winner.
Ah ah ah ah…please qualify by adding “in the NFL” and add ‘in your opinion’ if you’d like. 😁👍
1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:Other teams dont want him and neither should we.
We do not know this to be fact.
-
3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
But for example, saying only 2 #1 picks won multiple superbowls, and the rest were won by NON #1 picks implies that NON #1 picks each have a higher chance to win multiple superbowls, and while it is true that more NON #1 picks have won more superbowls, the error is that the odds of any single NON #1 pick winning a superbowl is much lower than any #1 single #1 pick.
Meaning there have been many more NON #1 picks that never won a superbowl.To be clear, the odds of #1 overall picks at QB winning the Super Bowl (multiple or not) is less than any other player not chosen #1 overall. … at least in the last 25 years.
Add in only two QBs that have won the Heisman have played in and won the Super Bowl.
And in the case of Williams (who regressed his last year - the year after getting the Heisman) had essentially the same stats his two years in the PAC-12 as did Nix and his two years there.
-
3 hours ago, killakrzydav said:
Herbert isn't going anywhere even for JJ, the best wr in the league.
I don’t know. I could see LA in a form of rebuild and maybe LA would allow Herbert a reset somewhere else while compiling a bunch of picks. If true to his word Harbaugh has a really high opinion of McCarthy and could have a fair number of pieces in place for him to do well. And Harbaugh is crazy enough to try just that.
-
Add D’Andre Swift to the “for” category.
-
11 minutes ago, ParkerBear7 said:
I think Poles should keep this trading back strategy with sorry abysmal teams for the next 3-4 years so that the team is in position to take QB Arch Manning when he is eligible! 🤣🤤
Now you’re talking!
-
20 minutes ago, ParkerBear7 said:
I’d be fine with Mayes
Only issue I have with what you said is this; mostly because he's Trubisky 2.0 (In my mind) ---and Mongo wants him. 😉
Otherwise...all well said.
-
6 minutes ago, AZ54 said:
This is not a guy running a 4.7 forty. He's not a 4.4 forty either but there are plenty of flashes where DBs aren't catching him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUFUNDOaGhk
Good video. I was just going to comment on his speed. Couldn't imagine he'd be top end anymore. But somehow he manages to consistently get open. I couldn't help but notice he got behind Pro Bowler Jaylon Johnson in one of his receptions 😏 So now the question will be, is Moore or Allen the #1 receiver? Regardless having Allen on the team will definitely help open up Moore a bit MORE often. And if they draft one of the top 3 WRs...oh man!
To think he's been in the league since 2013 and playing for SD/LA that whole time is pretty incredible. Because I was curious I wanted to see who else was drafted the same year as he and the list includes; OT Eric Fisher (#1 overall), Barkevious Mingo (#6 overall), DJ Fluker (OT #11 overall), DeAndre Hopkins (#27 overall), Cordarelle Patterson (#29 overall), Alec Olgetree (#30 overall) and Kyle Long (OG #20 overall).
-
7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
But it's like this. Imagine two games. One is a coin flip. Guess it right and you win. Another is a dice roll. Roll a six and you win. You play the coin flip and your friend plays the dice game. You lose, but he wins. That doesn't mean that playing each game gives an equal chance to win or that the next time you play you shouldnt choose the dice game, because you should.
For me the math aint' mathin. I'm not really sure why but quantitative physics was never really my strong suit. I'll have to engage my salamander brain and make sense of if all.
In the meantime....
7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:First pick overall QBs have a much higher chance to be great than the rest of the top ten. And top ten picked QBs have a better chance than any others. First rounders have a better chance than second rounders, and second rounders have a better chance than third rounders etc. We posted a ton of analysis here a couple months back proving that beyond any doubt.
Going back over the last 25 years, quarterbacks who were selected #1 overall and won a Super Bowl were 4 (or 16%). Of those 4 they won 6 total games (24%). QBs that were selected in the first round but NOT #1 overall won 8 games (32%). The rest of the games were won by QBs either drafted in later rounds or not drafted at all (Kurt Warner) meaning they won 12 games (48%). Of course half of those were won by Brady...so there's that. So...in theory a QB chosen in the first round but not #1 overall is 8% more likely to win a Super Bowl than the one chosen #1 overall (right?) And since this is the "keep Justin Fields" therapeutic thread, maybe that QB is already on the team? 🤷♂️
-
18 minutes ago, ParkerBear7 said:
Good article by someone who also supports Bears keeping Justin!
In theory his idea makes sense. Obviously he wrote this before Kennum went to Carolina and the Bears signed Allen but I think as he says the DE and WR are still positions of need. IHMO that is.
-
1 hour ago, ParkerBear7 said:
Interesting and good find. Never would have considered Hostetler until now.
-
My first blush on this reminds me of the time Victor Cruz signing with the Bears and never playing...until I looked at his stats.
Last year Allen: (13 games) 150 targets 108 REC for 1,243 yds (11.5 avg) and 7TDsLast year Moore: (17 games) 136 targets 96 REC for 1,364 yds (14.2 avg) and 8 TDs
Allen made the Pro Bowl....Moore did not.
-
5 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
My guess is we will see they signed the Vikings Dlinemen by end of the day. I'm guessing 3yr 30M.
If this was in fact Wonnum you were talking about, I read his deal with Carolina was 2 years for $14.5 million.
Allegedly he never made it out of the Panther's facility to negotiate with Chicago. Still, that price isn't horrible.
https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2024/03/14/dj-wonnum-bears-car/
-
10 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
Now I’m going to propose something wild - but Poles is a creative guy so I will propose Bears trade Fields for Geno Smith and a couple picks. Geno worked with Waldron and he is Caleb’s back up but can also serve as competition and someone who knows the system etc. Seahawks free up cap space and Bears get more value by taking on his contract.
I was thinking the same thing and if you are looking for how a coach says he's non-committal to who his starting QB will be, new Seahawks HC Mike McDonald is that. When asked about Smith being the starter next year he said: "The first thing I want everybody to know is that as an organization we're always looking, we're always trying to figure out what's best for the team all the time." If Waldron needs a guy to demonstrate the system as a veteran Smith would be the right guy to do it and Justin would have nearly an optimal opportunity as a starter with both Smith and Drew Lock gone. However, when I read the below article it mentions some contract language that could be tricky (and messy) for Seattle (second article below).
https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/02/15/seattle-seahawks-geno-smith-fully-guaranteed-contract-2024
-
7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
Poles will be getting a DE but will surprise us with the name.
I’m curious if it’ll be DJ Wonnum? He’s set to visit today after meeting with the Panthers yesterday . To me he’s what Sweat was to Chase Young in Washington. In this case Danielle Hunter got most of the hype in Minny. Wonnum is just closing out his rookie contract and had 8 sacks last season while doing it (he’s young and peaking).
-
11 hours ago, Pixote said:
Me?
Keep Fields, but draft a top QB prospect, preferably with one of the picks from a record-setting trade of #1.
X2
11 hours ago, Pixote said:I think for every "Keep Fields" advocate, there are two who insist we need to "Trade/Cut Fields"
I’m not as sure about that. Social media (if it’s any guage) still tracks polling at about 50/50. And the Fields detractors who started by saying he’d surely get the Bears maybe a 1st or 2nd pick in exchange AND that he would be traded by now have changed their tune to ‘noone in the league wants him’.
Yet another Caleb Williams Red Flag
in Bearstalk
Posted
You’re confusing two points. One about players selected #1 and having won a Heisman and won (and played in) a Super Bowl. That was two. The other conversation highlighted that ‘in the last 26 Super Bowls’ 4 QBs selected overall have won it. 2 of them twice (the Mannings) so six SBs.
Nope. Again you’re not comprehending the read. Simply put of the 26 Super Bowls played from 1999-2024, 6 games were won by QBs who were chosen #1 overall. The rest were not. But of those 20 games some were repeats, like Brady (6), Roethlisberger (2) and Mahomes (3). Still none of them were selected #1 overall .