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Everything posted by DABEARSDABOMB
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Draft Odds: Over/Unders via the bookmakers
DABEARSDABOMB replied to DABEARSDABOMB's topic in Bearstalk
I think one of the big misses might be Connelly here. A lot of helium with him - stick to him or Simmons are best LT prospects in draft - but with risk. If Bears want one of them - they can move down but given premium on tackle I can see them going earlier than expected. -
Thought it was interesting to see where the books have the draft odds starting with the highest names tied to the Bears and than on down. NFL Draft position Over/Unders: Mason Graham (5.5) Will Campbell (5.5) Armand Membou (6.5) Sanders (8.5) Jalon Walker (8.5) Ashton Jeanty (9.5) Tyler Warren (9.5) Will Johnson (11.5) Mikel Williams (15.5) JihadCampbell (15.5) Tetairoa McMillan (17.5) Matthew Golden (17.5) Mike Green (17.5) Jayden Barron (18.5) Banks Jr. (18.5) Colston Loveland (19.5) Omarion Hampton (19.5) Jaxson Dart (24.5) Emeka Egbuka (29.5)
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Yeah I agree. If you have a total stud it is harder because they can do it all. It is when they are one dimensional that it makes it easier on the D. I do agree you don’t want to have just one back - but having a top 5 running back is a real good thing and helps the offense, defense, oline and qb. I say it helps defense because time of possession and rest that comes from a back who can control the clock helps the defense too.
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I think Conerly or Simmons are high probability picks in RD 2 and I could even see them moving up. Right now I would want nothing more than a qb to be there at 10 that drives a team wanting to trade up - or some other position - but it takes 2 to tango. I think no obvious blue chipper will be there at 10 - so I’d rather move down and than get a 2 for 1 approach. Address OT, RB, DL, TE and Wideout with 4 being in first two rounds depending on what you can swing in trade down.
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Im going to say if Jeanty and Campbell are gone - it will be a TE or Db. Im going to guess they take Will Johnson at 10. This assumes Jeanty, Graham and Campbell are gone. I think they like Simmons most if they go LT and it isn’t Campbell. That is my hoping they go high end DB prospect (Johnson and Johnson sounds like a great duo) vs the TE spect albeit it seems like a lot of momentum headed toward the PSU TE. If it were a year ago and it was Brockers id say yes - but I don’t think Warren is Brockers.
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One bummer is the coaches haven’t really gotten to work with the players much. Do they get a mini camp before draft where they can at least put them through some agilities or is first time coaches get to really do anything right after draft when you have rookie mini camp and than some of the full mini camps / Otas leading up until training camp.
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Johnson was quoted this week on Jones. Overall pretty positive quotes - but mentioned they want him to add some muscle so he can set his anchor better - but raved about his athleticism at tackle. Could be smoke - but you could hear the energy when he talked about Jones length and athleticism. He also said pass blocking is number one out of an LT.
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I do think the draft them because you see all pro upside at LT but also high end guard upside can get me comfortable. But if they are maybe a Top 7-12 guy at best at LT while they project as a really good guard, I might opt a different direction. In the long run though - I won't argue at all with taking a LT. I am fully aligned to the power of the Oline and all for investing in it.
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Very good move.
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And by the way - I want a stud LT more than anything - it might have to be next year vs this year though.
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Im fine with Braxton and Kiran for another season vs reaching given what else they did. Just my two cents. I think Jones is pretty decent - especially if talent around him is better. He isn’t great but he is middle of the road and still very young and Kiran has all the measurable.
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I think moving up with one of the 2nd and down with the other could be an option. Move up and get someone who dropped (maybe get that 5th year option at back of first round) and than move back 10 spots with the other pick. Or maybe Simmons or Ersery fall and you also grab one of the safeties. Get the difference making talent regardless of need - more difference making talent more likely a few players really hit.
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I am now fully convinced if Jeanty is there they take him. Warren maybe - but I could see them liking one of the dlinemen more. At this point I expect one of the 2Nd rounders to be oline vs a 1st rounder.
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Membou is similar to Darnell Wright. He is going to be a very good RT for a long time - but won’t be an LT. Most of the higher ranked LTs all profile more as guards quite frankly and anyone that picks them is going to first see if they can stick at LT before shifting them. Simmons is about only one I’ve seen regularly as a true LT but obviously has the injury concerns and isn’t expected to go top 10. Campbell is by far the consensus #1 tackle prospect from the more regarded analyst. Whether they are right or not - who knows - but it’s these random outlets who have some of the other guys ahead of him. He was consensus top tackle all season. I’d be shocked if he is on board at 10 and I expect another tackle is also gone before Bears pick - whether Banks or Membou. Id argue in many drafts they would all be in the 15-30 range as all the tackles have more material flaws than usual.
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Campbell was the top LT all season. He did lose some shine late in the season and over the combine. Reality is this is a draft where there may not be any real good LT prospect…which in my mind means, don’t reach for a need.
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My opinion is there are about 5-7 picks worthy of being selected in the top 15 in this draft. - but that there are probably 30-40 guys who would be 20-40 round picks… Bottom line there might not be a guy in this draft on the oline who would be in the top 15 in a good year. I’d probably say same for dline outside of Carter. But at oline and dline I think the difference between the 2nd guy and the 6th guy is minimal and all would be back end first rounders. This is the reason why if at 10 you have Warren or Jeanty there and you think they are blue chip talent in a draft with 5-6 blue chip guys you take them and call it a day. Now if you can trade down great - but you need a buyer so unless someone is jumping for a qb I don’t see anyone paying much to Move up 5-10 spots with the Bears. I could see someone moving from say 10 to 5 if it allows them to get one of the few consensus blue chippers.
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This would be incredible.
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To be clear if I did my next 2 picks would be in the trenches. I still think they need to find another we or te st some point in draft too.
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Biggs article was first one that got me a little bit to I’d be okay taking Jeanty. LT vibes at RB is worth it at 10 - especially if you don’t think there is a blue chip LT or Dlinemen there.
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He had a 150 qb rating against him in 24 - so he was an awful corner in 24.
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Dennis Allen organized it but I’m sure a vet or two are leading it.
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Myles Williams at 10 FTW
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Bears looking for one more wideout in free agency…
DABEARSDABOMB replied to DABEARSDABOMB's topic in Bearstalk
I feel like this is one where they could have drafted or got another guy who could fit in the receiver room - ie Rondale Moore. I don’t mind him as a returner and I should caveat he is far better than Carter who was super meh. -
This I think is very true.
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Bears looking for one more wideout in free agency…
DABEARSDABOMB replied to DABEARSDABOMB's topic in Bearstalk
Trash signing if you ask me.